Recalibration Analysis Report — 2026-04-13

Auto-generated by scripts/recalibrate_algo.py. This report is the input for algo.md updates — diff against the prior dated section to see what's actually moved.

Connection: postgres://prop:***@10.0.15.24:5432/prop Statement timeout: 20min

Row counts and date ranges

tbl	n	lo	hi
contacts	58560	1991-05-04	2026-03-07
era5_profiles	0
hrrr_native_profiles	11472	2019-03-09	2025-09-21
hrrr_profiles	76151193	2016-09-17	2026-04-13
iemre_observations	15745
nexrad_observations	7286	2019-08-17	2024-09-22
propagation_scores	10543632	2026-04-13	2026-04-13
rtma_observations	0
soundings	16864	1990-06-07	2026-03-07
surface_observations	392444	1991-05-03	2026-04-13
terrain_profiles	58554

Data gaps (these should NOT be zero in a healthy prod)

era5_rows: 0
hrrr_climatology_rows: 0
rtma_rows: 0
metar5_rows: 0
hrrr_complete_contacts: 44147
hrrr_pending_contacts: 14413

Contacts by band (≥902 MHz)

band_mhz	contacts	avg_km	max_km
902	36	172.000	915.000
1296	74	259.000	1497.000
2304	15	91.000	348.000
3456	5	79.000	157.000
5760	4	97.000	148.000
10000	53698	213.000	2393.000
24000	3786	96.000	710.000
47000	764	66.000	343.000
75000	108	62.000	289.000
122000	35	27.000	139.000
134000	5	65.000	157.000
142000	4	47.000	79.700
145000	2	40.000	79.600
241000	15	29.000	114.400
288000	1	1.000	1.246
322000	1	1.000	1.400
403000	1	1.000	1.400
411000	1	0.000	0.050

Monthly sounding ducting

month	soundings	ducting_pct	avg_min_grad	avg_pwat
1	95	28.400	-171.400	10.900
2	131	29.000	-163.100	7.900
3	81	17.300	-148.100	9.400
4	107	38.300	-190.100	15.700
5	311	51.800	-286.400	25.600
6	380	69.500	-355.900	32.000
7	292	67.800	-296.000	29.300
8	2572	54.900	-261.200	34.600
9	2335	56.200	-279.800	27.200
10	155	57.400	-307.100	19.300
11	158	50.000	-256.700	12.000
12	140	25.700	-185.200	10.800

HRRR native-profile duct distribution (best supportable band)

band_bin	profiles	avg_inv_top_m	avg_theta_e_jump	avg_richardson
15-30 GHz	10	2091.000	5.900	8.690
30-75 GHz	4	3860.000	5.000	12.120
5-15 GHz	98	4408.000	25.700	12.550
<5 GHz	1432	2097.000	5.400	18.420
none	9928	11497.000	80.500	38.270

Contact ↔ HRRR per-band Pearson correlations (matched n=1020)

band_mhz	n	rho_pr	rho_dpc	rho_pwat	rho_sref	rho_grad	rho_tc	rho_hpbl
1296.000	63.000	-0.446	0.150	-0.004	0.321	-0.308	-0.313	-0.383
10000.000	680.000	-0.101	0.043	0.004	0.179	-0.136	-0.109	-0.206
24000.000	147.000	-0.291	-0.180	-0.221	0.094	-0.032	-0.299	-0.218
47000.000	75.000	-0.111	0.016	0.007	0.217	-0.175	0.089	-0.154

10 GHz: HPBL bin distance distribution

bin	n	avg_km	p50_km
<200	56	221.800	176.000
200-500	177	193.700	160.000
500-1000	178	153.200	126.000
1000-1500	100	158.400	132.500
1500-2000	95	142.900	134.000
>=2000	74	100.300	90.000

10 GHz: pressure bin distance distribution

bin	n	avg_km	p50_km
<990	101	212.100	134.000
990-1000	538	155.400	128.000
1000-1010	28	164.600	115.000
1010-1020	2	23.000	23.000
>=1020	11	103.100	23.000

NEXRAD composite reflectivity vs distance (matched n=102)

Sanity check for the rain-attenuation direction: at rain-sensitive bands higher max_dbz should map to shorter contacts. At 10 GHz the effect should be barely detectable.

10 GHz:

bin	n	avg_km	p50_km
none (<5)	59	155.700	143.000
drizzle (5-20)	7	56.400	49.000
light (20-30)	13	95.200	40.000
moderate (30-45)	4	97.200	92.000
heavy (>=45)	1	213.000	213.000

24 GHz:

bin	n	avg_km	p50_km
none (<5)	5	29.800	23.000
drizzle (5-20)	1	49.000	49.000
light (20-30)	5	34.000	40.000
moderate (30-45)	1	60.000	60.000

hrrr_native_profiles.best_duct_band_ghz vs distance (matched n=619)

Validates the 1.15× boost in Scorer.score_refractivity/4: contacts where the native duct supports the target band should run longer than those where it does not.