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prop/priv/backtest_reports/baseline_time_of_day.md
Graham McIntire ab04cb9168 Phase 0: backtest harness 
Add Microwaveprop.Backtest: a feature-evaluation framework that runs
a (lat, lon, valid_time) -> float function over the historical QSO
corpus and a matched random-time baseline, reporting distribution
statistics, distance-binned lift, and band-stratified lift.

Adds four baseline feature wrappers around the current scorer inputs
(naive_gradient, td_depression, time_of_day, pressure), a mix backtest
CLI, and the first set of baseline reports under priv/backtest_reports
so downstream phases have a frozen reference point to compare against.
2026-04-09 16:10:54 -05:00

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Backtest: Microwaveprop.Backtest.Features.time_of_day

QSO sample: 5000
Baseline sample: 5000

Matched distribution

Set N Mean Stddev p50 p90 Min Max
QSO times 5000 16.530 5.702 17.567 22.317 0.000 23.983
Random baseline 5000 12.071 6.934 12.017 21.733 0.000 23.983

Lift by distance (km)

Set N Mean Stddev p50 p90 Min Max
0-100 1249 16.326 5.829 17.633 22.033 0.000 23.917
100-250 2295 17.003 5.704 18.033 22.583 0.017 23.983
250-500 1288 15.870 5.495 16.650 21.583 0.000 23.983
500-1000 167 16.719 5.667 18.283 20.333 0.050 23.933
1000+ 1 2.867 0.000 2.867 2.867 2.867 2.867

Lift by band

Set N Mean Stddev p50 p90 Min Max
10000 MHz 4444 16.540 5.708 17.600 22.267 0.000 23.983
24000 MHz 465 16.774 5.217 16.933 22.650 0.017 23.933
47000 MHz 77 15.565 7.003 17.667 22.867 0.733 23.783
75000 MHz 14 10.538 8.066 15.000 17.950 1.633 17.967