prop/priv/backtest_reports/temperature_anomaly.md
Graham McIntire 6d92973853 Phase 9.1: Consolidated backtest report and contest log import
- Add `mix backtest --all` for consolidated pass/fail table across all features
- Add Backtest.consolidated_report/2 and to_consolidated_markdown/1
- Add Features.all_features/0 to auto-discover backtestable features
- Add `mix import_contest_logs` for bulk ARRL contest CSV import with dedup
- Fix hrrr_climatology to batch by (month, hour) to avoid query timeout
- Fix Repo.query! result pattern (Postgrex.Result, not tuple)
- Backtest reports for all Phase 1-6 features
2026-04-10 11:57:15 -05:00

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# Backtest: Microwaveprop.Backtest.Features.temperature_anomaly
QSO sample: 5000
Baseline sample: 5000
## Matched distribution
| Set | N | Mean | Stddev | p50 | p90 | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QSO times | 4974 | 1.118 | 2.624 | 1.402 | 4.175 | -8.127 | 9.335 |
| Random baseline | 128 | 0.332 | 2.840 | 0.581 | 3.714 | -6.600 | 7.206 |
## Lift by distance (km)
| Set | N | Mean | Stddev | p50 | p90 | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-100 | 1233 | 0.570 | 2.423 | 0.828 | 3.469 | -8.127 | 9.264 |
| 100-250 | 2285 | 1.088 | 2.519 | 1.467 | 3.941 | -7.423 | 9.264 |
| 250-500 | 1288 | 1.596 | 2.913 | 1.701 | 5.037 | -7.706 | 9.335 |
| 500-1000 | 167 | 1.872 | 2.260 | 2.047 | 4.398 | -7.706 | 6.211 |
| 1000+ | 1 | 2.311 | 0.000 | 2.311 | 2.311 | 2.311 | 2.311 |
## Lift by band
| Set | N | Mean | Stddev | p50 | p90 | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10000 MHz | 4444 | 1.145 | 2.648 | 1.454 | 4.206 | -8.127 | 9.335 |
| 24000 MHz | 465 | 0.840 | 2.426 | 1.247 | 3.678 | -6.932 | 6.951 |
| 47000 MHz | 51 | 0.873 | 2.315 | 1.396 | 4.056 | -6.932 | 4.248 |
| 75000 MHz | 14 | 2.374 | 1.534 | 1.317 | 4.056 | 0.943 | 4.056 |