Graham McIntire
ab04cb9168
Add Microwaveprop.Backtest: a feature-evaluation framework that runs a (lat, lon, valid_time) -> float function over the historical QSO corpus and a matched random-time baseline, reporting distribution statistics, distance-binned lift, and band-stratified lift. Adds four baseline feature wrappers around the current scorer inputs (naive_gradient, td_depression, time_of_day, pressure), a mix backtest CLI, and the first set of baseline reports under priv/backtest_reports so downstream phases have a frozen reference point to compare against.
31 lines
1.3 KiB
Markdown
31 lines
1.3 KiB
Markdown
# Backtest: Microwaveprop.Backtest.Features.pressure
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QSO sample: 5000
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Baseline sample: 5000
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## Matched distribution
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| Set | N | Mean | Stddev | p50 | p90 | Min | Max |
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| QSO times | 5000 | 983.092 | 29.427 | 988.600 | 1009.900 | 788.600 | 1023.500 |
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| Random baseline | 136 | 981.549 | 30.132 | 988.600 | 1008.900 | 830.600 | 1020.700 |
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## Lift by distance (km)
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| Set | N | Mean | Stddev | p50 | p90 | Min | Max |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 0-100 | 1249 | 988.560 | 25.473 | 991.800 | 1013.200 | 788.600 | 1023.500 |
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| 100-250 | 2295 | 982.276 | 30.947 | 988.800 | 1006.000 | 790.200 | 1023.500 |
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| 250-500 | 1288 | 979.843 | 30.739 | 986.300 | 1006.100 | 830.900 | 1017.700 |
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| 500-1000 | 167 | 978.470 | 17.374 | 979.100 | 999.700 | 949.800 | 1015.600 |
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| 1000+ | 1 | 982.400 | 0.000 | 982.400 | 982.400 | 982.400 | 982.400 |
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## Lift by band
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| Set | N | Mean | Stddev | p50 | p90 | Min | Max |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 10000 MHz | 4444 | 983.001 | 28.768 | 988.500 | 1009.800 | 830.900 | 1023.500 |
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| 24000 MHz | 465 | 983.776 | 32.080 | 990.800 | 1010.100 | 830.900 | 1016.900 |
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| 47000 MHz | 77 | 983.048 | 47.411 | 1000.400 | 1012.800 | 788.600 | 1021.100 |
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| 75000 MHz | 14 | 989.464 | 14.483 | 987.300 | 1001.600 | 956.000 | 1001.600 |
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