prop/test/microwaveprop/propagation
Graham McIntire 3a1e79fb67
feat(scorer): retire HPBL multiplier and native-duct 1.15× boost
Both retired in light of the 2026-04-25 revision report
(`docs/algo-reports/2026-04-25-algo-revisions.md`):

  * HPBL boundary-layer multiplier in `Scorer.score_refractivity/{3,4,5}`
    is gone. On the n=47,418 10 GHz HRRR-matched corpus rho_hpbl is
    +0.004; binned distance is flat to within ±5 % across 200–2,000 m.
    The previously reported 2.3× ratio between shallow and deep HPBL
    bins was a small-corpus artefact that disappeared once the matched
    corpus passed ~5,000 contacts.

  * Native-profile 1.15× duct boost is gone. At 10 GHz on n=52,341
    matched contacts, cells where `best_duct_band_ghz` ≥ band ran
    *shorter* than no-duct cells (198 km vs 211 km, n=173 vs 44,658).
    The Bulk Richardson gate that existed only to suppress that boost
    in turbulent conditions is also retired; arity preserved on every
    `score_refractivity` overload so callers compile unchanged.

Same retirements applied in the Rust port (`rust/prop_grid_rs/src/scorer.rs`)
to keep the Elixir/Rust parity tests green.

algo.md updated end-to-end:

  * Finding 4 (HPBL) rewritten to "no usable signal" with the
    n=47,418 bin table.
  * Finding 5 (gradient) tightened: load-bearing only at 24 GHz,
    set band-specific gradient weight to 0 outside [10, 47] GHz on
    the next derive_band_weights run.
  * Finding 8 (time-of-day) augmented with the robust hour-bucketed
    amplitude index (40 / 82 / 101 % at 10 / 24 / 47 GHz) and a
    selection-bias caveat for VHF/UHF (where 129–148 % amplitude
    reflects evening contest scheduling, not propagation).
  * Finding 9 (sounding) refreshed against the n=27,058 corpus.
  * Part 2c "Native-profile duct boost" rewritten as
    "retired 2026-04-25" with the falsifying join.
  * Part 2c "Commercial-link inverse sensor" promoted from deferred
    with the 22-day, 38k-sample SNMP corpus, the +0.61 / −0.61 PWAT
    and pressure correlations against the 37-hour HRRR overlap, and
    the 04–05 / 10–12 local two-peak morning fade window.
  * Part 2b "Pressure" annotated with the U-shape at 10 GHz and the
    next-iteration target.
  * Part 2d "What stayed, what left" + "Open items" updated to
    reflect the four code/doc moves.

119 Elixir scorer tests green, 134 Rust scorer tests green, 2,888
total Elixir tests + 221 properties green via `mix precommit`.
2026-04-25 12:42:56 -05:00
..
band_config_property_test.exs test(property): add property tests for propagation scoring + CIDR matcher 2026-04-21 13:57:12 -05:00
band_config_test.exs feat(propagation): per-band weight calibration from full-corpus correlation 2026-04-18 10:19:26 -05:00
common_volume_test.exs feat(rainscatter): classify QSO propagation mechanism from common-volume radar 2026-04-17 15:57:59 -05:00
duct_property_test.exs test: coverage round 2 (82.05% → 83.96%) + 23 new property tests 2026-04-24 10:15:37 -05:00
duct_test.exs test: coverage round 2 (82.05% → 83.96%) + 23 new property tests 2026-04-24 10:15:37 -05:00
eme_test.exs feat(eme): add /eme Earth-Moon-Earth calculator 2026-04-23 16:18:20 -05:00
freshness_monitor_test.exs fix(propagation): dedup PropagationGridWorker enqueues 2026-04-16 14:58:55 -05:00
grid_task_enqueuer_test.exs fix(grid-tasks): reclaim orphan running rows on hourly seed 2026-04-23 12:57:39 -05:00
grid_test.exs fix(enrichment): mark OCONUS contacts hrrr_status :unavailable 2026-04-23 14:19:23 -05:00
hf_muf_test.exs HfMuf physics: distance-adjusted MUF from GIRO MUFD(3000) 2026-04-15 14:59:39 -05:00
inversion_test.exs Phase 2 tasks 2.1-2.4: BL turbulence feature computations 2026-04-10 08:21:23 -05:00
mechanism_classifier_test.exs feat(propagation): per-contact mechanism classification 2026-04-18 10:42:08 -05:00
model_test.exs Integrate ML model into grid worker, QSO search, and UI improvements 2026-04-01 10:14:22 -05:00
notify_listener_test.exs perf(prop): cap ScoreCache LRU + drop eager warmers to fix hot-pod OOMs 2026-04-24 18:49:36 -05:00
pipeline_status_test.exs feat(map): shareable URL params for view/band/time 2026-04-19 08:53:07 -05:00
profiles_file_test.exs test: expand coverage and refactor to idiomatic style 2026-04-23 13:28:42 -05:00
rain_scatter_classifier_test.exs feat(rainscatter): classify QSO propagation mechanism from common-volume radar 2026-04-17 15:57:59 -05:00
rain_scatter_test.exs test: cover propagation/rain_scatter 2026-04-16 14:09:44 -05:00
recalibrator_test.exs feat(propagation): per-band weight calibration from full-corpus correlation 2026-04-18 10:19:26 -05:00
region_test.exs fix: April 2026 codebase review — address 13 bugs across propagation chain 2026-04-25 10:52:51 -05:00
score_cache_test.exs perf(prop): cap ScoreCache LRU + drop eager warmers to fix hot-pod OOMs 2026-04-24 18:49:36 -05:00
scorer_property_test.exs test: add /qsos→/contacts redirect + scorer conversion properties 2026-04-23 14:03:02 -05:00
scorer_test.exs feat(scorer): retire HPBL multiplier and native-duct 1.15× boost 2026-04-25 12:42:56 -05:00
scores_file_property_test.exs test(property): add property tests for propagation scoring + CIDR matcher 2026-04-21 13:57:12 -05:00
scores_file_test.exs fix(map): dedupe duplicated forecast-timeline chips + extract Mechanism helpers 2026-04-21 17:21:11 -05:00
sporadic_e_test.exs Add 50/144/222 MHz bands, rename 440→432 2026-04-16 12:36:10 -05:00