fix(enrichment): mark OCONUS contacts hrrr_status :unavailable

Root cause of 14 stuck hrrr-queued contacts: hrrr_point_rs's CONUS-only
grid silently writes zero profiles for out-of-bounds points (UK,
Winnipeg, Alberta, >50° lat), but the fetch task still completes
successfully. ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker's hrrr_placeholder_jobs
always emitted a queued placeholder for any contact with a pos1,
which meant mark_hrrr_status! re-flagged :queued every backfill tick
forever.

Introduce Propagation.Grid.contains?/1 as the canonical in-CONUS
check (inclusive on all four edges, nil-safe). Use it in two places
of ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker:

- hrrr_placeholder_jobs/1 now returns [] for OCONUS contacts, same
  as pre-2014 / already-complete ones.
- mark_hrrr_status!/3 empty-list clause now branches on Grid.contains?
  first (→ :unavailable) before falling through to the existing
  NARR-coverage / :complete logic.

Next backfill tick will flip the 14 stuck OCONUS contacts in prod to
:unavailable automatically. The remaining 13 "CONUS" stuck ones are
right at the 50° edge (lat=50.1875 rounds outside the box) — same
reconciliation path.

Coverage additions:
- Grid.contains?/1 — corner-inclusive, OCONUS positive/negative
  fixtures based on the actual stuck-contact pos1 values, nil/missing-
  key/nil-value handling.
- enqueue_for_contact regression tests: pos1 in the UK and pos1 just
  north of the lat cap both land at :unavailable, not :queued.

Suite: 2,416 tests + 159 properties (was 2,409 + 159); credo strict
clean.

lib/microwaveprop/propagation/grid.ex

@@ -24,6 +24,25 @@ defmodule Microwaveprop.Propagation.Grid do
   @spec bounds() :: %{lat_min: float(), lat_max: float(), lon_min: float(), lon_max: float()}
   def bounds, do: %{lat_min: @lat_min, lat_max: @lat_max, lon_min: @lon_min, lon_max: @lon_max}
 
+  @doc """
+  True when the given position lies inside the CONUS bounding box
+  (inclusive on all four edges). Callers use this to gate HRRR
+  enrichment — contacts whose path origin is outside the grid would
+  be enqueued forever because `hrrr_point_rs` silently writes no
+  profiles for out-of-grid points.
+
+  Accepts the canonical `%{"lat" => _, "lon" => _}` pos map. Returns
+  `false` for nil, missing keys, or nil numeric values.
+  """
+  @spec contains?(map() | nil) :: boolean()
+  def contains?(nil), do: false
+
+  def contains?(%{"lat" => lat, "lon" => lon}) when is_number(lat) and is_number(lon) do
+    lat >= @lat_min and lat <= @lat_max and lon >= @lon_min and lon <= @lon_max
+  end
+
+  def contains?(_), do: false
+
   @doc "Returns the grid specification for wgrib2 -lola extraction."
   @spec wgrib2_grid_spec() :: %{
           lon_start: float(),

lib/microwaveprop/workers/contact_weather_enqueue_worker.ex

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ defmodule Microwaveprop.Workers.ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker do
   @moduledoc false
   use Oban.Worker, queue: :enqueue, max_attempts: 3
 
+  alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.Grid
   alias Microwaveprop.Radio
   alias Microwaveprop.Radio.Contact
   alias Microwaveprop.Weather
@@ -97,6 +98,7 @@ defmodule Microwaveprop.Workers.ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker do
     Enum.flat_map(contacts, fn contact ->
       cond do
         is_nil(contact.pos1) -> []
+        not Grid.contains?(contact.pos1) -> []
         NarrClient.in_coverage?(contact.qso_timestamp) -> []
         Weather.hrrr_data_fully_present?(contact) -> []
         true -> [contact.id]
@@ -159,15 +161,24 @@ defmodule Microwaveprop.Workers.ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker do
 
   defp mark_radar_status!(_contact, ids, [_ | _]), do: Radio.set_enrichment_status!(ids, :radar_status, :queued)
 
-  # Pre-2014 contacts have no HRRR data — NarrClient.in_coverage?/1 is the
-  # authoritative "HRRR can never serve this" check. Mark :unavailable so
-  # BackfillEnqueueWorker's :narr filter picks them up and the reconcile
-  # loop stops flipping the row back to :queued each cron cycle.
+  # Empty-job-list HRRR path has three terminal states:
+  #
+  # 1. pos1 outside the CONUS grid → :unavailable. hrrr_point_rs silently
+  #    returns zero profiles for OCONUS points and the backfill cron
+  #    would otherwise re-flag :queued every tick forever.
+  # 2. pre-2014 contacts (NarrClient.in_coverage?) → :unavailable so the
+  #    :narr filter in BackfillEnqueueWorker picks them up.
+  # 3. modern CONUS contact whose profiles already exist → :complete.
   defp mark_hrrr_status!(contact, ids, []) do
-    if NarrClient.in_coverage?(contact.qso_timestamp) do
-      Radio.set_enrichment_status!(ids, :hrrr_status, :unavailable)
-    else
-      Radio.set_enrichment_status!(ids, :hrrr_status, :complete)
+    cond do
+      not Grid.contains?(contact.pos1) ->
+        Radio.set_enrichment_status!(ids, :hrrr_status, :unavailable)
+
+      NarrClient.in_coverage?(contact.qso_timestamp) ->
+        Radio.set_enrichment_status!(ids, :hrrr_status, :unavailable)
+
+      true ->
+        Radio.set_enrichment_status!(ids, :hrrr_status, :complete)
     end
   end
 

test/microwaveprop/propagation/grid_test.exs

@@ -54,6 +54,39 @@ defmodule Microwaveprop.Propagation.GridTest do
     end
   end
 
+  describe "contains?/1" do
+    test "true for DFW (firmly inside the box)" do
+      assert Grid.contains?(%{"lat" => 32.9, "lon" => -97.0})
+    end
+
+    test "true for every corner of the CONUS bounding box (inclusive)" do
+      assert Grid.contains?(%{"lat" => 25.0, "lon" => -125.0})
+      assert Grid.contains?(%{"lat" => 50.0, "lon" => -66.0})
+      assert Grid.contains?(%{"lat" => 25.0, "lon" => -66.0})
+      assert Grid.contains?(%{"lat" => 50.0, "lon" => -125.0})
+    end
+
+    test "false for OCONUS positions (UK, Winnipeg, Alberta, etc.)" do
+      # 27 stuck hrrr-queued contacts in prod landed on points like
+      # these. Add them as regression fixtures.
+      refute Grid.contains?(%{"lat" => 51.4, "lon" => 0.47})
+      refute Grid.contains?(%{"lat" => 51.39, "lon" => -114.04})
+      refute Grid.contains?(%{"lat" => 50.1875, "lon" => -97.625})
+    end
+
+    test "false for nil pos or missing keys" do
+      refute Grid.contains?(nil)
+      refute Grid.contains?(%{})
+      refute Grid.contains?(%{"lat" => 32.9})
+      refute Grid.contains?(%{"lon" => -97.0})
+    end
+
+    test "false when lat or lon is nil" do
+      refute Grid.contains?(%{"lat" => nil, "lon" => -97.0})
+      refute Grid.contains?(%{"lat" => 32.9, "lon" => nil})
+    end
+  end
+
   describe "wgrib2_grid_spec/0" do
     test "lon_start / lat_start match the bounding box SW corner" do
       spec = Grid.wgrib2_grid_spec()

test/microwaveprop/workers/contact_weather_enqueue_worker_test.exs

@@ -286,6 +286,37 @@ defmodule Microwaveprop.Workers.ContactWeatherEnqueueWorkerTest do
       assert [] = Repo.all(from t in "hrrr_fetch_tasks", select: t.id)
     end
 
+    test "enqueue_for_contact marks hrrr_status :unavailable when pos1 is outside the CONUS grid" do
+      # Regression: 14 stuck hrrr-queued contacts in prod had pos1 in
+      # the UK, Winnipeg, or Alberta. The Rust hrrr_point_rs worker
+      # completes the fetch task silently (CONUS-only grid yields zero
+      # profiles) and the backfill cron re-flags the contact :queued
+      # forever. OCONUS contacts should land directly at :unavailable.
+      contact =
+        create_contact(%{
+          pos1: %{"lat" => 51.4, "lon" => 0.47},
+          pos2: %{"lat" => 51.45, "lon" => 0.44},
+          qso_timestamp: ~U[2023-01-19 00:00:00Z]
+        })
+
+      :ok = ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker.enqueue_for_contact(contact, [:hrrr])
+
+      assert %Contact{hrrr_status: :unavailable} = Repo.get!(Contact, contact.id)
+    end
+
+    test "enqueue_for_contact marks hrrr_status :unavailable when pos1 is just north of the 50° lat cap" do
+      contact =
+        create_contact(%{
+          pos1: %{"lat" => 50.1875, "lon" => -97.625},
+          pos2: %{"lat" => 50.2, "lon" => -97.6},
+          qso_timestamp: ~U[2023-09-17 17:00:00Z]
+        })
+
+      :ok = ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker.enqueue_for_contact(contact, [:hrrr])
+
+      assert %Contact{hrrr_status: :unavailable} = Repo.get!(Contact, contact.id)
+    end
+
     test "enqueue_for_contact marks hrrr_status :complete when all path points already have profiles" do
       # Regression: ~22k contacts stuck at :queued forever because
       # HrrrPointEnqueuer saw 0 missing points (data already landed)