prop/lib/microwaveprop/propagation
Graham McIntire 3a1e79fb67
feat(scorer): retire HPBL multiplier and native-duct 1.15× boost
Both retired in light of the 2026-04-25 revision report
(`docs/algo-reports/2026-04-25-algo-revisions.md`):

  * HPBL boundary-layer multiplier in `Scorer.score_refractivity/{3,4,5}`
    is gone. On the n=47,418 10 GHz HRRR-matched corpus rho_hpbl is
    +0.004; binned distance is flat to within ±5 % across 200–2,000 m.
    The previously reported 2.3× ratio between shallow and deep HPBL
    bins was a small-corpus artefact that disappeared once the matched
    corpus passed ~5,000 contacts.

  * Native-profile 1.15× duct boost is gone. At 10 GHz on n=52,341
    matched contacts, cells where `best_duct_band_ghz` ≥ band ran
    *shorter* than no-duct cells (198 km vs 211 km, n=173 vs 44,658).
    The Bulk Richardson gate that existed only to suppress that boost
    in turbulent conditions is also retired; arity preserved on every
    `score_refractivity` overload so callers compile unchanged.

Same retirements applied in the Rust port (`rust/prop_grid_rs/src/scorer.rs`)
to keep the Elixir/Rust parity tests green.

algo.md updated end-to-end:

  * Finding 4 (HPBL) rewritten to "no usable signal" with the
    n=47,418 bin table.
  * Finding 5 (gradient) tightened: load-bearing only at 24 GHz,
    set band-specific gradient weight to 0 outside [10, 47] GHz on
    the next derive_band_weights run.
  * Finding 8 (time-of-day) augmented with the robust hour-bucketed
    amplitude index (40 / 82 / 101 % at 10 / 24 / 47 GHz) and a
    selection-bias caveat for VHF/UHF (where 129–148 % amplitude
    reflects evening contest scheduling, not propagation).
  * Finding 9 (sounding) refreshed against the n=27,058 corpus.
  * Part 2c "Native-profile duct boost" rewritten as
    "retired 2026-04-25" with the falsifying join.
  * Part 2c "Commercial-link inverse sensor" promoted from deferred
    with the 22-day, 38k-sample SNMP corpus, the +0.61 / −0.61 PWAT
    and pressure correlations against the 37-hour HRRR overlap, and
    the 04–05 / 10–12 local two-peak morning fade window.
  * Part 2b "Pressure" annotated with the U-shape at 10 GHz and the
    next-iteration target.
  * Part 2d "What stayed, what left" + "Open items" updated to
    reflect the four code/doc moves.

119 Elixir scorer tests green, 134 Rust scorer tests green, 2,888
total Elixir tests + 221 properties green via `mix precommit`.
2026-04-25 12:42:56 -05:00
..
band_config.ex feat(propagation): per-band weight calibration from full-corpus correlation 2026-04-18 10:19:26 -05:00
common_volume.ex feat(rainscatter): classify QSO propagation mechanism from common-volume radar 2026-04-17 15:57:59 -05:00
duct.ex Fix all remaining credo --strict issues (0 issues) 2026-04-12 10:26:53 -05:00
eme.ex feat(eme): add /eme Earth-Moon-Earth calculator 2026-04-23 16:18:20 -05:00
freshness_monitor.ex perf+hygiene: batch 1 of system-review fixes 2026-04-21 17:06:07 -05:00
grid.ex fix(enrichment): mark OCONUS contacts hrrr_status :unavailable 2026-04-23 14:19:23 -05:00
grid_task_enqueuer.ex fix(grid-tasks): reclaim orphan running rows on hourly seed 2026-04-23 12:57:39 -05:00
hf_muf.ex HfMuf physics: distance-adjusted MUF from GIRO MUFD(3000) 2026-04-15 14:59:39 -05:00
inversion.ex Add dialyzer specs and types across the codebase 2026-04-12 08:55:04 -05:00
mechanism_classifier.ex feat(propagation): per-contact mechanism classification 2026-04-18 10:42:08 -05:00
moon_ephemeris.ex feat(propagation): per-contact mechanism classification 2026-04-18 10:42:08 -05:00
notify_listener.ex perf(prop): cap ScoreCache LRU + drop eager warmers to fix hot-pod OOMs 2026-04-24 18:49:36 -05:00
pipeline_status.ex feat(map): shareable URL params for view/band/time 2026-04-19 08:53:07 -05:00
profiles_file.ex fix: three more Rust/Elixir contract drift bugs on /map and /weather 2026-04-24 14:04:02 -05:00
rain_scatter.ex Add dialyzer specs and types across the codebase 2026-04-12 08:55:04 -05:00
rain_scatter_classifier.ex feat(rainscatter): classify QSO propagation mechanism from common-volume radar 2026-04-17 15:57:59 -05:00
recalibrator.ex perf(concurrency): partition Task.Supervisor to remove bottleneck on heavy async_stream paths 2026-04-21 14:20:29 -05:00
region.ex fix: April 2026 codebase review — address 13 bugs across propagation chain 2026-04-25 10:52:51 -05:00
run_timing.ex fix(dialyzer): actually fix LiveTable warnings instead of hiding them 2026-04-21 12:58:10 -05:00
score_cache.ex perf(prop): cap ScoreCache LRU + drop eager warmers to fix hot-pod OOMs 2026-04-24 18:49:36 -05:00
scorer.ex feat(scorer): retire HPBL multiplier and native-duct 1.15× boost 2026-04-25 12:42:56 -05:00
scores_file.ex test: expand coverage and refactor to idiomatic style 2026-04-23 13:28:42 -05:00
sporadic_e.ex Add 50/144/222 MHz bands, rename 440→432 2026-04-16 12:36:10 -05:00