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prop/docs/algo-reports/2026-04-13-recalibration.md
Graham McIntire fc3eb58910
Refresh propagation algo against expanded prod corpus (2026-04-13) 
Direct queries against prod (75M HRRR profiles, 16,864 soundings, 392k
surface obs, new hrrr_native_profiles table) drive these changes:

* Reinstate shallow-BL bonus as an HPBL multiplier on the refractivity
  score (1.10× <200m → 0.78× ≥2000m). The Apr 11 "shallow BL bonus
  removed" conclusion was an artifact of the prior matching strategy;
  with the cleaner contact↔HRRR join (n=680) the binned data goes 230 km
  avg at HPBL <200m vs 100 km at ≥2000m, monotonic across all bins.
* Add 6 missing bands (142, 145, 288, 322, 403, 411 GHz) so contacts in
  those bands stop being silently dropped. Coefficients extrapolate
  ITU-R P.676/P.838 trends from the existing 134/241 GHz entries.
* Bump ERA5 poll timeout 10 min → 1 hour and Era5MonthBatchWorker
  max_attempts 3 → 5 so CDS slowness stops discarding tiles. Also dump
  the full failure body when CDS omits the message field — the prior
  "ERA5 job failed: nil" was masking real error reasons in oban_jobs.
* Add scripts/recalibrate_algo.py so this analysis can be re-run any
  time new data lands without manual SQL. Reads PROP_PROD_DB_URL from
  .envrc, drops a Markdown report into docs/algo-reports/.
* Append a dated Part 2c to algo.md documenting the corpus expansion,
  the honest accounting of historical HRRR coverage (only ~1,020 of 58k
  contacts are precision-matchable), and the empty era5/rtma/climatology
  tables. Update the gaseous-absorption and rain-attenuation tables to
  include the new bands.

Test suite: 1,335 tests, 0 failures.
2026-04-13 10:59:01 -05:00

5.4 KiB
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Recalibration Analysis Report — 2026-04-13

Auto-generated by scripts/recalibrate_algo.py. This report is the input for algo.md updates — diff against the prior dated section to see what's actually moved.

Connection: postgres://prop:***@10.0.15.24:5432/prop Statement timeout: 20min

Row counts and date ranges

tbl n lo hi
contacts 58560 1991-05-04 2026-03-07
era5_profiles 0
hrrr_native_profiles 11472 2019-03-09 2025-09-21
hrrr_profiles 76058705 2016-09-17 2026-04-13
iemre_observations 15745
nexrad_observations 7286 2019-08-17 2024-09-22
propagation_scores 9618752 2026-04-13 2026-04-13
rtma_observations 0
soundings 16864 1990-06-07 2026-03-07
surface_observations 392442 1991-05-03 2026-04-13
terrain_profiles 58554

Data gaps (these should NOT be zero in a healthy prod)

  • era5_rows: 0
  • hrrr_climatology_rows: 0
  • rtma_rows: 0
  • metar5_rows: 0
  • hrrr_complete_contacts: 44147
  • hrrr_pending_contacts: 14413

Contacts by band (≥902 MHz)

band_mhz contacts avg_km max_km
902 36 172.000 915.000
1296 74 259.000 1497.000
2304 15 91.000 348.000
3456 5 79.000 157.000
5760 4 97.000 148.000
10000 53698 213.000 2393.000
24000 3786 96.000 710.000
47000 764 66.000 343.000
75000 108 62.000 289.000
122000 35 27.000 139.000
134000 5 65.000 157.000
142000 4 47.000 79.700
145000 2 40.000 79.600
241000 15 29.000 114.400
288000 1 1.000 1.246
322000 1 1.000 1.400
403000 1 1.000 1.400
411000 1 0.000 0.050

Monthly sounding ducting

month soundings ducting_pct avg_min_grad avg_pwat
1 95 28.400 -171.400 10.900
2 131 29.000 -163.100 7.900
3 81 17.300 -148.100 9.400
4 107 38.300 -190.100 15.700
5 311 51.800 -286.400 25.600
6 380 69.500 -355.900 32.000
7 292 67.800 -296.000 29.300
8 2572 54.900 -261.200 34.600
9 2335 56.200 -279.800 27.200
10 155 57.400 -307.100 19.300
11 158 50.000 -256.700 12.000
12 140 25.700 -185.200 10.800

HRRR native-profile duct distribution (best supportable band)

band_bin profiles avg_inv_top_m avg_theta_e_jump avg_richardson
15-30 GHz 10 2091.000 5.900 8.690
30-75 GHz 4 3860.000 5.000 12.120
5-15 GHz 98 4408.000 25.700 12.550
<5 GHz 1432 2097.000 5.400 18.420
none 9928 11497.000 80.500 38.270

Contact ↔ HRRR per-band Pearson correlations (matched n=1020)

band_mhz n rho_pr rho_dpc rho_pwat rho_sref rho_grad rho_tc rho_hpbl
1296.000 63.000 -0.446 0.150 -0.004 0.321 -0.308 -0.313 -0.383
10000.000 680.000 -0.104 0.046 0.003 0.181 -0.127 -0.108 -0.200
24000.000 147.000 -0.290 -0.179 -0.220 0.096 -0.034 -0.301 -0.226
47000.000 75.000 -0.111 0.015 0.006 0.218 -0.167 0.086 -0.154

10 GHz: HPBL bin distance distribution

bin n avg_km p50_km
<200 55 222.600 174.000
200-500 174 183.200 154.500
500-1000 181 163.700 126.000
1000-1500 103 160.900 136.000
1500-2000 93 140.500 128.000
>=2000 74 100.300 90.000

10 GHz: pressure bin distance distribution

bin n avg_km p50_km
<990 101 211.900 134.000
990-1000 538 155.400 128.000
1000-1010 28 164.600 115.000
1010-1020 2 23.000 23.000
>=1020 11 103.100 23.000