Graham McIntire
8a969e315c
57,186 prod contacts stored pos1/pos2 with 'lng'; 1,133 used 'lon'. Every Elixir caller carried a `pos["lon"] || pos["lng"]` fallback — which just caused a SQL widget to silently miscount 98% of contacts (count_narr_done used `pos1->>'lon'` directly, no fallback, so every lng-keyed row returned NULL and failed the coverage check). - Migration rewrites every pos1/pos2 JSONB in place, renaming 'lng' to 'lon' and dropping 'lng'. - Removes all 20+ `|| pos["lng"]` fallbacks across lib/, workers, scorer, weather, radio.ex, contact show view, and recalibrator. - lib_ml/propagation_analyze.ex SQL now reads pos1->>'lon' directly (was reading 'lng' only, which would have broken after migration). - priv/repo/import_contacts.exs one-time seed script now emits 'lon' with string keys, matching production shape. - Test fixtures in 4 test files normalized to 'lon'. - Two lng-characterization tests deleted — nonsensical post-normalize. - Updated notebook + old import_weather script to match. - JS hook contact_map_hook.ts TypeScript type narrowed to 'lon'.
563 lines
21 KiB
Elixir
563 lines
21 KiB
Elixir
defmodule Microwaveprop.Propagation.Scorer do
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@moduledoc """
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Scoring functions for microwave propagation conditions.
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Each of the 10 factors produces a 0-100 score. The composite score is
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a weighted sum using weights from `BandConfig`. All thresholds and
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parameters are read from `BandConfig` — no hardcoded magic numbers here.
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"""
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alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.BandConfig
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# ── Temperature conversion helpers ────────────────────────────────
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alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.Region
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@doc "Converts Fahrenheit to Celsius. Returns nil for nil input."
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@spec f_to_c(number() | nil) :: float() | nil
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def f_to_c(nil), do: nil
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def f_to_c(f), do: (f - 32) * 5 / 9
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@doc "Converts Celsius to Fahrenheit. Returns nil for nil input."
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@spec c_to_f(number() | nil) :: float() | nil
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def c_to_f(nil), do: nil
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def c_to_f(c), do: c * 9 / 5 + 32
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# ── Derived value helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────
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@doc """
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Computes absolute humidity in g/m3 from temperature and dewpoint (both Celsius).
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Formula: 217 * (6.112 * exp(17.67 * Td / (Td + 243.5))) / (T + 273.15)
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"""
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@spec absolute_humidity(number(), number()) :: float()
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def absolute_humidity(temp_c, dewpoint_c) do
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e_sat = 6.112 * :math.exp(17.67 * dewpoint_c / (dewpoint_c + 243.5))
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217.0 * e_sat / (temp_c + 273.15)
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end
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@doc "Computes wind speed in knots from u and v components in m/s. Returns nil if either is nil."
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@spec wind_speed_kts(number() | nil, number() | nil) :: float() | nil
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def wind_speed_kts(nil, _v), do: nil
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def wind_speed_kts(_u, nil), do: nil
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def wind_speed_kts(u_ms, v_ms) do
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:math.sqrt(u_ms * u_ms + v_ms * v_ms) * 1.94384
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end
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@doc "Converts precipitation accumulation (mm) to rate (mm/hr). Returns 0.0 for nil, zero, or negative."
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@spec precip_to_rate_mmhr(number() | nil) :: float()
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def precip_to_rate_mmhr(nil), do: 0.0
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def precip_to_rate_mmhr(mm) when mm > 0, do: mm / 1
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def precip_to_rate_mmhr(_mm), do: 0.0
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@doc """
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Converts NEXRAD composite reflectivity (dBZ) to rain rate (mm/hr) via the
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Marshall-Palmer Z-R relationship `Z = 200 * R^1.6`, so `R = (Z/200)^(1/1.6)`
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with `Z = 10^(dBZ/10)`.
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Clipping rules:
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* Below 5 dBZ — not rain (ground clutter / clear air). Returns 0.0.
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* Above 150 mm/hr — hail contamination (55+ dBZ can return >100 mm/hr
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from pure Marshall-Palmer). The ITU-R P.838 rain table tops out at
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~150 mm/hr so we clip there to stay inside the calibrated regime.
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"""
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@spec dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr(number() | nil) :: float()
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def dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr(nil), do: 0.0
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def dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr(dbz) when dbz < 5.0, do: 0.0
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def dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr(dbz) do
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z = :math.pow(10, dbz / 10)
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r = :math.pow(z / 200, 1 / 1.6)
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min(r, 150.0)
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end
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# ── Factor 1: Humidity ────────────────────────────────────────────
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@doc """
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Scores absolute humidity (g/m3) for the given band.
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Beneficial bands (10 GHz): higher humidity improves ducting.
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Harmful bands (24 GHz+): humidity causes absorption loss.
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"""
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@spec score_humidity(number(), map()) :: integer()
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def score_humidity(abs_humidity, %{humidity_effect: :beneficial}) do
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thresholds = BandConfig.humidity_beneficial_thresholds()
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case Enum.find(thresholds, fn {max_h, _score} -> abs_humidity < max_h end) do
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{_max, score} -> score
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nil -> BandConfig.humidity_beneficial_default()
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end
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end
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def score_humidity(abs_humidity, %{humidity_effect: :harmful, humidity_penalty: penalty}) do
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r = abs_humidity * penalty
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cond do
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r <= 6 -> 100
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r <= 9 -> round(95 - (r - 6) / 3 * 20)
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r <= 13 -> round(75 - (r - 9) / 4 * 30)
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r <= 18 -> round(45 - (r - 13) / 5 * 35)
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true -> max(0, round(10 - (r - 18) * 2))
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end
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end
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# ── Factor 2: Time of day ─────────────────────────────────────────
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@doc """
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Scores time of day for propagation conditions.
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Returns {score, label} where score is 0-100 and label describes the period.
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Uses longitude-based solar time offset (longitude / 15) so each grid point
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gets its own local time rather than a fixed timezone offset.
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"""
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@spec score_time_of_day(integer(), integer(), integer(), number()) :: {integer(), String.t()}
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def score_time_of_day(utc_hour, utc_minute, month, longitude) do
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offset = longitude / 15
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local = :math.fmod(utc_hour + utc_minute / 60 + offset + 24, 24)
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sunrise = Enum.at(BandConfig.sunrise_table(), month - 1)
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d = local - sunrise
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classify_time_period(d, local)
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end
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defp classify_time_period(d, _local) when d >= -1.5 and d <= 1.5, do: {100, "Peak — inversion maximum"}
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defp classify_time_period(d, _local) when d > 1.5 and d <= 3.0, do: {78, "Good — inversion eroding"}
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defp classify_time_period(d, _local) when d > -3.0 and d < -1.5, do: {82, "Pre-dawn — inversion building"}
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defp classify_time_period(d, _local) when d > 3.0 and d <= 6.0, do: {38, "Marginal — boundary layer mixing"}
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defp classify_time_period(_d, local) when local >= 20 or local <= 1, do: {72, "Evening — cooling, inversion reforming"}
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defp classify_time_period(d, _local) when d > 6, do: {18, "Afternoon — full convective mixing"}
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defp classify_time_period(_d, _local), do: {55, "Night — gradual cooling"}
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# ── Factor 3: Temp-dewpoint depression ────────────────────────────
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@doc """
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Scores the temperature-dewpoint depression (both in Fahrenheit).
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Beneficial bands: moisture helps (tight depression = moist = better ducting,
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but too tight means fog which is bad).
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Harmful bands: dry air is better (wide depression = less absorption).
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"""
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@spec score_td_depression(number(), number(), map()) :: integer()
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def score_td_depression(temp_f, dewpoint_f, %{humidity_effect: :beneficial}) do
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dep = temp_f - dewpoint_f
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cond do
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dep < 3 -> 40
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dep < 8 -> 75
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dep < 14 -> 85
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dep < 22 -> 70
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true -> 55
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end
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end
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def score_td_depression(temp_f, dewpoint_f, %{humidity_effect: :harmful}) do
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dep = temp_f - dewpoint_f
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cond do
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dep > 22 -> 96
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dep > 14 -> 80
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dep > 8 -> 60
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dep > 4 -> 38
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true -> 18
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end
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end
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# ── Factor 4: Refractivity ───────────────────────────────────────
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@doc """
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Scores minimum refractivity gradient and boundary layer depth.
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Nil gradient returns 50 (unknown). Otherwise walks thresholds from
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BandConfig and then applies an HPBL multiplier: shallow boundary layers
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amplify trapping (surface inversion → steep gradient → ducting), deep
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boundary layers indicate convective mixing that disrupts ducts.
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Empirical basis (Apr 13 2026 refresh, n=680 10 GHz contacts joined to
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HRRR profiles): 230 km avg distance for HPBL <200 m vs 100 km for HPBL
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≥2000 m — a 2.3× difference monotonic across bins. The multiplier is
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applied to *both* the threshold-matched score and the default fallback.
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"""
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@spec score_refractivity(number() | nil, number() | nil, map()) :: integer()
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def score_refractivity(min_gradient, bl_depth_m, band_config) do
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score_refractivity(min_gradient, bl_depth_m, nil, band_config)
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end
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@doc """
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Scores refractivity with optional native-profile duct info.
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`best_duct_band_ghz` comes from `hrrr_native_profiles` and represents the
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highest frequency the cell's native-resolution duct can trap. When it's
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≥ the target band's frequency the base score is boosted 1.15× because
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HRRR pressure-level gradients systematically under-read thin ducts the
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native profile can resolve (see Part 2c Apr 13 2026 findings).
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A duct that only supports lower frequencies does NOT boost the score —
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it's a signal that the gradient we have is *all there is* at the target
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band.
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"""
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@spec score_refractivity(number() | nil, number() | nil, number() | nil, map()) :: integer()
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def score_refractivity(nil, _bl_depth_m, _best_duct_band_ghz, _band_config), do: 50
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def score_refractivity(min_gradient, bl_depth_m, best_duct_band_ghz, %{freq_mhz: freq_mhz, humidity_effect: effect}) do
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thresholds = BandConfig.refractivity_thresholds()
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base =
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case find_refractivity_threshold(min_gradient, thresholds, effect) do
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{:ok, score} ->
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score
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:none ->
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{beneficial_default, harmful_default} = BandConfig.refractivity_default()
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if effect == :beneficial, do: beneficial_default, else: harmful_default
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end
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base
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|> apply_hpbl_multiplier(bl_depth_m)
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|> apply_native_duct_boost(best_duct_band_ghz, freq_mhz)
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end
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# HPBL multiplier — applied to the base refractivity score. Calibrated to the
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# binned 10 GHz data: <200 m → 230 km avg, 200–500 → 186, 500–1500 → ~160,
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# 1500–2000 → 137, ≥2000 → 100. nil HPBL keeps the score unchanged.
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defp apply_hpbl_multiplier(base, nil), do: base
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defp apply_hpbl_multiplier(base, hpbl) when hpbl < 200, do: clamp_score(base * 1.10)
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defp apply_hpbl_multiplier(base, hpbl) when hpbl < 500, do: clamp_score(base * 1.05)
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defp apply_hpbl_multiplier(base, hpbl) when hpbl < 1500, do: base
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defp apply_hpbl_multiplier(base, hpbl) when hpbl < 2000, do: clamp_score(base * 0.92)
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defp apply_hpbl_multiplier(base, _hpbl), do: clamp_score(base * 0.78)
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# Native-profile duct boost — 1.15× when the cell's best duct supports the
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# target band's frequency. HRRR pressure-level gradients systematically
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# under-read thin ducts (~250m vertical spacing vs 50 native hybrid levels),
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# so when hrrr_native_profiles reports a duct band at or above the target
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# frequency, the base gradient score is under-estimating the real channel.
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defp apply_native_duct_boost(base, nil, _freq_mhz), do: base
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defp apply_native_duct_boost(base, best_duct_band_ghz, freq_mhz) do
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target_ghz = freq_mhz / 1_000
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if best_duct_band_ghz >= target_ghz do
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clamp_score(base * 1.15)
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else
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base
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end
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end
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@doc """
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Inverse-sensor boost from commercial LOS link degradation.
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Nearby short-path commercial links (11/24/68 GHz in the DFW area) act as a
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physical refractivity anomaly sensor: when their rx_power drops 5+ dB below
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the 7-day baseline *without* an equipment cause, the same multipath fading
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that hurts their short Fresnel zone is what carries the beyond-LOS paths.
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This is a terminal boost applied once per composite score, not per-band —
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the underlying physics is band-agnostic at the resolution we can measure.
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Takes the incoming composite (or any 0-100) score and a degradation map
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from `Commercial.link_degradation_at/3`; returns a boosted integer score.
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* nil or empty result (`n_links == 0`) — no-op
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* <3 dB — noise floor, no-op
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* 3–8 dB — mild boost (+0 to +10)
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* ≥8 dB — strong boost (+10 to +25, clamped ≤ 100)
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"""
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@spec commercial_link_boost(number(), map() | nil) :: integer()
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def commercial_link_boost(score, nil), do: clamp_score(score)
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def commercial_link_boost(score, %{n_links: 0}), do: clamp_score(score)
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def commercial_link_boost(score, %{degradation_db: db}) when db < 3.0, do: clamp_score(score)
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def commercial_link_boost(score, %{degradation_db: db}) when db < 8.0 do
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# 3 dB → +2; 7.9 dB → ~+10 (linear interpolation)
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bonus = 2 + (db - 3.0) * 8.0 / 5.0
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clamp_score(score + bonus)
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end
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def commercial_link_boost(score, %{degradation_db: db}) do
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# 8 dB → +10; 16 dB → +25 (linear)
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bonus = min(25.0, 10 + (db - 8.0) * 15.0 / 8.0)
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clamp_score(score + bonus)
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end
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defp clamp_score(value) do
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value |> round() |> max(0) |> min(100)
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end
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defp find_refractivity_threshold(gradient, thresholds, effect) do
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case Enum.find(thresholds, fn {max_grad, _ben, _harm} -> gradient < max_grad end) do
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{_max, beneficial_score, harmful_score} ->
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score =
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case effect do
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:beneficial -> beneficial_score
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:harmful -> harmful_score
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end
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{:ok, score}
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nil ->
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:none
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end
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end
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# ── Factor 5: Sky cover ──────────────────────────────────────────
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@doc "Scores sky cover percentage (0 = clear, 100 = overcast). Nil returns 50."
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@spec score_sky(number() | nil) :: integer()
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def score_sky(nil), do: 50
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def score_sky(pct) do
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cond do
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pct <= 6 -> 100
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pct <= 25 -> 88
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pct <= 50 -> 60
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pct <= 87 -> 25
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true -> 5
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end
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end
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# ── Factor 6: Season ─────────────────────────────────────────────
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@doc """
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Scores the seasonal effect for the given month and band config.
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When lat/lon are provided, applies a regional adjustment multiplier
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from `Propagation.Region` on top of the band's `seasonal_base` +
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`seasonal_adj`. This corrects for the meteorologist's observation
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that Gulf coast August is better than the uniform base suggests,
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while Corn Belt August is worse.
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"""
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@spec score_season(integer(), float | nil, float | nil, map()) :: integer()
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def score_season(month, lat, lon, %{seasonal_base: base_map, seasonal_adj: adj_map}) do
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base = Map.get(base_map, month, 50)
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adj = Map.get(adj_map, month, 0)
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region_mult =
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if is_number(lat) and is_number(lon) do
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region = Region.for_point(lat, lon)
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Region.seasonal_adjustment(region, month)
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else
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1.0
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end
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round(min(100, max(0, (base + adj) * region_mult)))
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end
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# ── Factor 7: Wind ───────────────────────────────────────────────
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@doc "Scores wind speed in knots. Nil returns 50."
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@spec score_wind(number() | nil) :: integer()
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def score_wind(nil), do: 50
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def score_wind(speed_kts) do
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cond do
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speed_kts < 5 -> 100
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speed_kts < 10 -> 90
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speed_kts < 15 -> 75
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speed_kts < 20 -> 55
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speed_kts < 25 -> 35
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true -> 15
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end
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end
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# ── Factor 8: Rain attenuation ───────────────────────────────────
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@doc """
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Scores rain attenuation for the given rate (mm/hr) and band config.
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Uses ITU-R P.838 specific attenuation: gamma = k * R^alpha (dB/km).
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"""
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@spec score_rain(number() | nil, map()) :: integer()
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def score_rain(nil, _band_config), do: 100
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def score_rain(rate, _band_config) when rate == 0, do: 100
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def score_rain(rain_rate_mmhr, %{rain_k: k, rain_alpha: alpha}) do
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gamma = k * :math.pow(rain_rate_mmhr, alpha)
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cond do
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gamma < 0.1 -> 95
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gamma < 0.5 -> 75
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gamma < 1.0 -> 50
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gamma < 2.0 -> 25
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gamma < 5.0 -> 10
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true -> 0
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end
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end
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# ── Factor 9: Precipitable water ──────────────────────────────────
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@doc """
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Scores precipitable water (mm).
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Beneficial bands (10 GHz): moderate PWAT is optimal for refractivity.
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Harmful bands (24+ GHz): lower PWAT is better (less water vapor absorption).
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"""
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@spec score_pwat(number() | nil, map()) :: integer()
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def score_pwat(nil, _band_config), do: 60
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def score_pwat(pwat_mm, %{humidity_effect: :beneficial}) do
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cond do
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pwat_mm < 10 -> 55
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pwat_mm < 20 -> 75
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pwat_mm < 30 -> 90
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pwat_mm < 40 -> 70
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true -> 50
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end
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end
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def score_pwat(pwat_mm, %{humidity_effect: :harmful}) do
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cond do
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pwat_mm < 10 -> 95
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pwat_mm < 20 -> 80
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pwat_mm < 30 -> 60
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pwat_mm < 40 -> 35
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true -> 15
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end
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end
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# ── Factor 10: Pressure trend ────────────────────────────────────
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@doc """
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Scores barometric pressure and trend.
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Without previous reading, scores based on absolute pressure.
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With previous reading, scores based on pressure change (delta).
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"""
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@spec score_pressure(number() | nil, number() | nil) :: integer()
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def score_pressure(nil, _previous_mb), do: 50
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def score_pressure(current_mb, nil) do
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cond do
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current_mb < 980 -> 88
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current_mb < 990 -> 82
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current_mb < 1000 -> 70
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current_mb < 1010 -> 55
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current_mb < 1020 -> 40
|
||
true -> 30
|
||
end
|
||
end
|
||
|
||
def score_pressure(current_mb, previous_mb) do
|
||
delta = current_mb - previous_mb
|
||
|
||
cond do
|
||
delta > 2.5 -> 80
|
||
delta > 0.8 -> 70
|
||
delta > -0.5 -> 60
|
||
delta > -2.0 -> 65
|
||
true -> 45
|
||
end
|
||
end
|
||
|
||
# ── Composite score ──────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
|
||
@doc """
|
||
Computes the weighted composite propagation score.
|
||
|
||
Takes a conditions map and band config, returns %{score: 0-100, factors: %{...}}.
|
||
"""
|
||
@spec composite_score(map(), map()) :: %{score: integer(), factors: map()}
|
||
def composite_score(conditions, band_config) do
|
||
{tod_score, _label} =
|
||
score_time_of_day(conditions.utc_hour, conditions.utc_minute, conditions.month, conditions.longitude)
|
||
|
||
factors = %{
|
||
humidity: score_humidity(conditions.abs_humidity, band_config),
|
||
time_of_day: tod_score,
|
||
td_depression: score_td_depression(conditions.temp_f, conditions.dewpoint_f, band_config),
|
||
refractivity:
|
||
score_refractivity(
|
||
conditions.min_refractivity_gradient,
|
||
conditions.bl_depth_m,
|
||
conditions[:best_duct_band_ghz],
|
||
band_config
|
||
),
|
||
sky: score_sky(conditions.sky_cover_pct),
|
||
season: score_season(conditions.month, conditions[:latitude], conditions[:longitude], band_config),
|
||
wind: score_wind(conditions.wind_speed_kts),
|
||
rain: score_rain(conditions.rain_rate_mmhr, band_config),
|
||
pwat: score_pwat(conditions[:pwat_mm], band_config),
|
||
pressure: score_pressure(conditions.pressure_mb, conditions.prev_pressure_mb)
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
weights = BandConfig.weights()
|
||
|
||
weighted_sum =
|
||
Enum.reduce(factors, 0.0, fn {factor, score}, acc ->
|
||
acc + score * Map.fetch!(weights, factor)
|
||
end)
|
||
|
||
%{score: round(weighted_sum), factors: factors}
|
||
end
|
||
|
||
@doc """
|
||
Merges multiple HRRR profiles along a path into a single conditions map.
|
||
|
||
Strategy:
|
||
- Beneficial factors (refractivity, pressure): use BEST (most favorable) along path
|
||
- Harmful factors (rain, wind): use WORST (least favorable) along path
|
||
- Other factors (temp, dewpoint, PWAT, BL depth): use path AVERAGE
|
||
- Time/season/sky: taken from first profile (same for entire path)
|
||
"""
|
||
@spec path_integrated_conditions([map()], map()) :: map() | nil
|
||
def path_integrated_conditions(profiles, contact) do
|
||
extracted = extract_profile_fields(profiles)
|
||
build_path_conditions(extracted, contact)
|
||
end
|
||
|
||
defp extract_profile_fields(profiles) do
|
||
Enum.reduce(profiles, {[], [], [], [], [], []}, fn p, {t, d, pr, g, b, pw} ->
|
||
{
|
||
if(is_nil(p.surface_temp_c), do: t, else: [p.surface_temp_c | t]),
|
||
if(is_nil(p.surface_dewpoint_c), do: d, else: [p.surface_dewpoint_c | d]),
|
||
if(is_nil(p.surface_pressure_mb), do: pr, else: [p.surface_pressure_mb | pr]),
|
||
if(is_nil(p.min_refractivity_gradient), do: g, else: [p.min_refractivity_gradient | g]),
|
||
if(is_nil(p.hpbl_m), do: b, else: [p.hpbl_m | b]),
|
||
if(is_nil(p.pwat_mm), do: pw, else: [p.pwat_mm | pw])
|
||
}
|
||
end)
|
||
end
|
||
|
||
defp build_path_conditions({temps, _dewpoints, _pressures, _gradients, _bl_depths, _pwats}, _contact) when temps == [],
|
||
do: nil
|
||
|
||
defp build_path_conditions({_temps, dewpoints, _pressures, _gradients, _bl_depths, _pwats}, _contact)
|
||
when dewpoints == [], do: nil
|
||
|
||
defp build_path_conditions({temps, dewpoints, pressures, gradients, bl_depths, pwats}, contact) do
|
||
lon = contact.pos1["lon"] || -97.0
|
||
avg_temp_c = Enum.sum(temps) / length(temps)
|
||
avg_dewpoint_c = Enum.sum(dewpoints) / length(dewpoints)
|
||
|
||
%{
|
||
abs_humidity: absolute_humidity(avg_temp_c, avg_dewpoint_c),
|
||
temp_f: c_to_f(avg_temp_c),
|
||
dewpoint_f: c_to_f(avg_dewpoint_c),
|
||
wind_speed_kts: nil,
|
||
sky_cover_pct: nil,
|
||
utc_hour: contact.qso_timestamp.hour,
|
||
utc_minute: contact.qso_timestamp.minute,
|
||
month: contact.qso_timestamp.month,
|
||
longitude: lon,
|
||
pressure_mb: safe_min(pressures),
|
||
prev_pressure_mb: nil,
|
||
rain_rate_mmhr: 0.0,
|
||
min_refractivity_gradient: safe_min(gradients),
|
||
bl_depth_m: safe_avg(bl_depths),
|
||
pwat_mm: safe_avg(pwats)
|
||
}
|
||
end
|
||
|
||
defp safe_min([]), do: nil
|
||
defp safe_min(list), do: Enum.min(list)
|
||
|
||
defp safe_avg([]), do: nil
|
||
defp safe_avg(list), do: Enum.sum(list) / length(list)
|
||
end
|