57,186 prod contacts stored pos1/pos2 with 'lng'; 1,133 used 'lon'.
Every Elixir caller carried a `pos["lon"] || pos["lng"]` fallback
— which just caused a SQL widget to silently miscount 98% of contacts
(count_narr_done used `pos1->>'lon'` directly, no fallback, so every
lng-keyed row returned NULL and failed the coverage check).
- Migration rewrites every pos1/pos2 JSONB in place, renaming 'lng' to
'lon' and dropping 'lng'.
- Removes all 20+ `|| pos["lng"]` fallbacks across lib/, workers,
scorer, weather, radio.ex, contact show view, and recalibrator.
- lib_ml/propagation_analyze.ex SQL now reads pos1->>'lon' directly
(was reading 'lng' only, which would have broken after migration).
- priv/repo/import_contacts.exs one-time seed script now emits 'lon'
with string keys, matching production shape.
- Test fixtures in 4 test files normalized to 'lon'.
- Two lng-characterization tests deleted — nonsensical post-normalize.
- Updated notebook + old import_weather script to match.
- JS hook contact_map_hook.ts TypeScript type narrowed to 'lon'.
Three signal sources we already collect but weren't using:
* NEXRAD composite reflectivity → rain rate via Marshall-Palmer, taken
as max of HRRR-derived and NEXRAD-derived rate so fast convective
cells between HRRR hourly analyses can still trigger the rain penalty.
Only active on f00 — forecast hours can't see future radar. New
Scorer.dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr/1 with 5 dBZ noise floor and 150 mm/hr
hail-safe ceiling.
* hrrr_native_profiles.best_duct_band_ghz → Scorer.score_refractivity/4
applies a 1.15× boost when the cell's native-resolution duct supports
the target band's frequency. HRRR pressure-level gradients
systematically under-read thin trapping layers the native profile can
resolve. Sub-band ducts do NOT boost — they're evidence that the
gradient we have is all there is at the target frequency.
* Commercial LOS link rx_power fading → inverse tropo sensor.
Commercial.link_degradation_at/3 computes the average 7-day-baseline
vs current delta across enabled links within 75 km, ignoring links
where link_state != 1. Scorer.commercial_link_boost/2 adds +2 to +25
to the composite score for 3+ dB of fading. ~150 km radius around
DFW is the only zone this helps today, but it's the first *measured*
signal in the algorithm vs the model-derived proxies.
Also fix a latent test bug exposed by the earlier ERA5 poll-timeout
bump: era5_batch_client_test's "uncached path returns error" tests
hung for up to an hour when run with direnv's real CDS key. New
describe-level setup explicitly unsets the env var so the tests stay
hermetic.
1,359 tests, 0 failures.
Direct queries against prod (75M HRRR profiles, 16,864 soundings, 392k
surface obs, new hrrr_native_profiles table) drive these changes:
* Reinstate shallow-BL bonus as an HPBL multiplier on the refractivity
score (1.10× <200m → 0.78× ≥2000m). The Apr 11 "shallow BL bonus
removed" conclusion was an artifact of the prior matching strategy;
with the cleaner contact↔HRRR join (n=680) the binned data goes 230 km
avg at HPBL <200m vs 100 km at ≥2000m, monotonic across all bins.
* Add 6 missing bands (142, 145, 288, 322, 403, 411 GHz) so contacts in
those bands stop being silently dropped. Coefficients extrapolate
ITU-R P.676/P.838 trends from the existing 134/241 GHz entries.
* Bump ERA5 poll timeout 10 min → 1 hour and Era5MonthBatchWorker
max_attempts 3 → 5 so CDS slowness stops discarding tiles. Also dump
the full failure body when CDS omits the message field — the prior
"ERA5 job failed: nil" was masking real error reasons in oban_jobs.
* Add scripts/recalibrate_algo.py so this analysis can be re-run any
time new data lands without manual SQL. Reads PROP_PROD_DB_URL from
.envrc, drops a Markdown report into docs/algo-reports/.
* Append a dated Part 2c to algo.md documenting the corpus expansion,
the honest accounting of historical HRRR coverage (only ~1,020 of 58k
contacts are precision-matchable), and the empty era5/rtma/climatology
tables. Update the gaseous-absorption and rain-attenuation tables to
include the new bands.
Test suite: 1,335 tests, 0 failures.
- Replace %Struct{} with Struct.t() in all @spec annotations
- Replace length(x) > 0 with x != [] in test assertions
- Fix multi-line spec struct references in weather.ex
- Stream profile storage and score upsert instead of materializing
full 20k+ item lists (propagation_grid_worker, propagation.ex)
- GC between forecast hours and store/compute phases to reclaim
~400 MB of grid data between steps
- Single-pass field extraction in scorer.ex path_integrated_conditions
instead of 6 separate Enum traversals
- Eliminate intermediate merged map in fetch_grid by combining
merge + profile build into one pipe
- Fix UUID bug: bingenerate → generate in native grid worker
(same issue previously fixed in nexrad_worker)
Add Propagation.Region module with 8 CONUS climate zones (gulf_coast,
southeast, southern_plains, corn_belt, northeast, desert_southwest,
pacific_northwest, mountain_west) and per-region monthly seasonal
adjustment multipliers.
The scorer's score_season now takes lat/lon and applies a regional
multiplier from Region.seasonal_adjustment on top of the band's
seasonal_base + seasonal_adj. Gulf coast August gets a 1.15x boost
(drier, better for ducting) while Corn Belt August gets a 0.80x
penalty (corn evapotranspiration = miserable dewpoints).
Adjustments are hand-tuned starting points from the meteorologist's
qualitative guidance. Phase 9 recalibration will refine them from
backtest data.
Contact scoring now uses all HRRR profiles along the path instead of
just pos1. Aggregation strategy:
- Best along path for beneficial factors (refractivity, pressure)
- Worst along path for harmful factors (rain, wind)
- Average for neutral factors (temp, dewpoint, PWAT, BL depth)
Scorer.path_integrated_conditions/2 merges multiple profiles into a
single conditions map. Falls back gracefully to single-profile scoring
when only one profile is available.
- Fix score_pressure crash on nil pressure_mb (coastal HRRR points)
- Set 10-min timeout on grid score upsert transaction (was :infinity)
- Single DELETE for prune_old_scores instead of N queries in a loop
- Remove dead load_hrrr_refractivity that loaded 95k rows into nil map
- Pass selected_time to point_detail to skip latest_valid_time sub-query
- Batch station existence checks (1 query per path point, not per station)
- Batch solar index upserts via insert_all in chunks of 500
- Batch backfill_distances via single UPDATE FROM VALUES statement
- Add is_grid_point boolean + partial index to hrrr_profiles (replaces
non-sargable modular arithmetic filter on every weather map query)
- Add partial index on contacts(qso_timestamp) WHERE pos1 IS NOT NULL
- Move backfill enqueue to Oban worker so UI returns immediately
Score time-of-day per grid point using longitude/15 solar offset instead of
hardcoded CST/CDT. Add PWAT as 10th scoring factor. Refine pressure thresholds.
Update ML model and training pipeline to use local solar time.
