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prop/priv/backtest_reports/temperature_anomaly.md
Graham McIntire 6d92973853 Phase 9.1: Consolidated backtest report and contest log import 
- Add `mix backtest --all` for consolidated pass/fail table across all features
- Add Backtest.consolidated_report/2 and to_consolidated_markdown/1
- Add Features.all_features/0 to auto-discover backtestable features
- Add `mix import_contest_logs` for bulk ARRL contest CSV import with dedup
- Fix hrrr_climatology to batch by (month, hour) to avoid query timeout
- Fix Repo.query! result pattern (Postgrex.Result, not tuple)
- Backtest reports for all Phase 1-6 features
2026-04-10 11:57:15 -05:00

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Backtest: Microwaveprop.Backtest.Features.temperature_anomaly

QSO sample: 5000
Baseline sample: 5000

Matched distribution

Set N Mean Stddev p50 p90 Min Max
QSO times 4974 1.118 2.624 1.402 4.175 -8.127 9.335
Random baseline 128 0.332 2.840 0.581 3.714 -6.600 7.206

Lift by distance (km)

Set N Mean Stddev p50 p90 Min Max
0-100 1233 0.570 2.423 0.828 3.469 -8.127 9.264
100-250 2285 1.088 2.519 1.467 3.941 -7.423 9.264
250-500 1288 1.596 2.913 1.701 5.037 -7.706 9.335
500-1000 167 1.872 2.260 2.047 4.398 -7.706 6.211
1000+ 1 2.311 0.000 2.311 2.311 2.311 2.311

Lift by band

Set N Mean Stddev p50 p90 Min Max
10000 MHz 4444 1.145 2.648 1.454 4.206 -8.127 9.335
24000 MHz 465 0.840 2.426 1.247 3.678 -6.932 6.951
47000 MHz 51 0.873 2.315 1.396 4.056 -6.932 4.248
75000 MHz 14 2.374 1.534 1.317 4.056 0.943 4.056