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prop/priv/backtest_reports/baseline_naive_gradient.md
Graham McIntire 6d92973853 Phase 9.1: Consolidated backtest report and contest log import 
- Add `mix backtest --all` for consolidated pass/fail table across all features
- Add Backtest.consolidated_report/2 and to_consolidated_markdown/1
- Add Features.all_features/0 to auto-discover backtestable features
- Add `mix import_contest_logs` for bulk ARRL contest CSV import with dedup
- Fix hrrr_climatology to batch by (month, hour) to avoid query timeout
- Fix Repo.query! result pattern (Postgrex.Result, not tuple)
- Backtest reports for all Phase 1-6 features
2026-04-10 11:57:15 -05:00

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Backtest: Microwaveprop.Backtest.Features.naive_gradient

QSO sample: 5000
Baseline sample: 5000

Matched distribution

Set N Mean Stddev p50 p90 Min Max
QSO times 5000 -113.971 42.207 -105.154 -69.043 -331.397 -35.521
Random baseline 140 -112.877 51.502 -100.413 -62.855 -331.397 -48.393

Lift by distance (km)

Set N Mean Stddev p50 p90 Min Max
0-100 1249 -114.766 43.617 -107.614 -66.251 -321.312 -35.521
100-250 2295 -114.555 42.595 -103.392 -71.537 -331.397 -44.027
250-500 1288 -112.728 41.507 -105.238 -65.613 -321.312 -39.224
500-1000 167 -109.723 29.535 -115.466 -69.348 -206.669 -45.098
1000+ 1 -90.610 0.000 -90.610 -90.610 -90.610 -90.610

Lift by band

Set N Mean Stddev p50 p90 Min Max
10000 MHz 4444 -114.037 42.734 -105.238 -68.535 -321.312 -37.154
24000 MHz 465 -116.766 37.728 -107.614 -82.149 -331.397 -64.361
47000 MHz 77 -98.886 35.255 -93.461 -68.535 -227.800 -35.521
75000 MHz 14 -83.273 13.340 -93.461 -68.535 -99.652 -68.535