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prop/priv/backtest_reports/baseline_pressure.md
Graham McIntire ab04cb9168 Phase 0: backtest harness 
Add Microwaveprop.Backtest: a feature-evaluation framework that runs
a (lat, lon, valid_time) -> float function over the historical QSO
corpus and a matched random-time baseline, reporting distribution
statistics, distance-binned lift, and band-stratified lift.

Adds four baseline feature wrappers around the current scorer inputs
(naive_gradient, td_depression, time_of_day, pressure), a mix backtest
CLI, and the first set of baseline reports under priv/backtest_reports
so downstream phases have a frozen reference point to compare against.
2026-04-09 16:10:54 -05:00

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Backtest: Microwaveprop.Backtest.Features.pressure

QSO sample: 5000
Baseline sample: 5000

Matched distribution

Set N Mean Stddev p50 p90 Min Max
QSO times 5000 983.092 29.427 988.600 1009.900 788.600 1023.500
Random baseline 136 981.549 30.132 988.600 1008.900 830.600 1020.700

Lift by distance (km)

Set N Mean Stddev p50 p90 Min Max
0-100 1249 988.560 25.473 991.800 1013.200 788.600 1023.500
100-250 2295 982.276 30.947 988.800 1006.000 790.200 1023.500
250-500 1288 979.843 30.739 986.300 1006.100 830.900 1017.700
500-1000 167 978.470 17.374 979.100 999.700 949.800 1015.600
1000+ 1 982.400 0.000 982.400 982.400 982.400 982.400

Lift by band

Set N Mean Stddev p50 p90 Min Max
10000 MHz 4444 983.001 28.768 988.500 1009.800 830.900 1023.500
24000 MHz 465 983.776 32.080 990.800 1010.100 830.900 1016.900
47000 MHz 77 983.048 47.411 1000.400 1012.800 788.600 1021.100
75000 MHz 14 989.464 14.483 987.300 1001.600 956.000 1001.600