prop/priv/backtest_reports/baseline_naive_gradient.md
Graham McIntire 6d92973853 Phase 9.1: Consolidated backtest report and contest log import
- Add `mix backtest --all` for consolidated pass/fail table across all features
- Add Backtest.consolidated_report/2 and to_consolidated_markdown/1
- Add Features.all_features/0 to auto-discover backtestable features
- Add `mix import_contest_logs` for bulk ARRL contest CSV import with dedup
- Fix hrrr_climatology to batch by (month, hour) to avoid query timeout
- Fix Repo.query! result pattern (Postgrex.Result, not tuple)
- Backtest reports for all Phase 1-6 features
2026-04-10 11:57:15 -05:00

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# Backtest: Microwaveprop.Backtest.Features.naive_gradient
QSO sample: 5000
Baseline sample: 5000
## Matched distribution
| Set | N | Mean | Stddev | p50 | p90 | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QSO times | 5000 | -113.971 | 42.207 | -105.154 | -69.043 | -331.397 | -35.521 |
| Random baseline | 140 | -112.877 | 51.502 | -100.413 | -62.855 | -331.397 | -48.393 |
## Lift by distance (km)
| Set | N | Mean | Stddev | p50 | p90 | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-100 | 1249 | -114.766 | 43.617 | -107.614 | -66.251 | -321.312 | -35.521 |
| 100-250 | 2295 | -114.555 | 42.595 | -103.392 | -71.537 | -331.397 | -44.027 |
| 250-500 | 1288 | -112.728 | 41.507 | -105.238 | -65.613 | -321.312 | -39.224 |
| 500-1000 | 167 | -109.723 | 29.535 | -115.466 | -69.348 | -206.669 | -45.098 |
| 1000+ | 1 | -90.610 | 0.000 | -90.610 | -90.610 | -90.610 | -90.610 |
## Lift by band
| Set | N | Mean | Stddev | p50 | p90 | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10000 MHz | 4444 | -114.037 | 42.734 | -105.238 | -68.535 | -321.312 | -37.154 |
| 24000 MHz | 465 | -116.766 | 37.728 | -107.614 | -82.149 | -331.397 | -64.361 |
| 47000 MHz | 77 | -98.886 | 35.255 | -93.461 | -68.535 | -227.800 | -35.521 |
| 75000 MHz | 14 | -83.273 | 13.340 | -93.461 | -68.535 | -99.652 | -68.535 |