perf(algo): unify recalibration into single Python pipeline with JSON output

Replace the two-script Python pipeline (analysis report + Elixir-source
emitter) with a single `scripts/recalibrate.py` that fits per-band
weights from PSKR spot density (VHF/UHF) and contacts↔HRRR correlations
(microwave), writing `priv/algo/band_weights.json` as a machine-readable
artifact. A new Elixir BandWeights module loads this JSON once via
`:persistent_term` cache; BandConfig.weights/1 consults it before falling
back to in-source overrides or global defaults. The script never touches
Elixir source — recalibration is now `python3 scripts/recalibrate.py`
followed by an app restart.

2026-05-25 14:45:55 -05:00

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Full Recalibration Report — 2026-05-24

Auto-generated by scripts/recalibrate.py. The companion JSON file at priv/algo/band_weights.json is the machine-readable output that Elixir loads at runtime. This report is the human-readable audit trail.

Connection: postgres://prop:***@10.0.15.30:5432/prop Generated: 2026-05-24T18:53:32+00:00

Data sources

PSKR (VHF/UHF, label = spot_count): bands [50, 144, 432, 1296, 2304, 10000], 386,782 samples
Contacts ↔ HRRR (microwave, label = distance_km): 12 bands, 81,571 matched contacts

Per-band evidence

Band	Source	n	label avg	ρ_tc	ρ_dpc	ρ_pr	ρ_pwat	ρ_grad
50 MHz	pskr	372,468	1.80	-0.013	+0.014	+0.025	+0.023	+0.000
144 MHz	pskr	12,927	4.41	+0.184	+0.223	+0.163	+0.209	-0.073
222 MHz	contacts	7,518	229.14	-0.081	+0.077	-0.014	+0.068	+0.039
432 MHz	pskr	975	1.54	+0.260	-0.047	+0.085	-0.052	+0.141
902 MHz	contacts	1,754	172.14	-0.070	+0.097	+0.080	+0.051	-0.038
1296 MHz	contacts	2,951	160.95	-0.041	+0.102	+0.025	+0.053	-0.080
2304 MHz	contacts	719	154.51	-0.060	+0.162	+0.076	+0.130	-0.114
3400 MHz	contacts	335	153.71	-0.062	+0.155	-0.027	+0.150	+0.063
5760 MHz	contacts	321	127.55	-0.065	+0.075	+0.153	+0.099	-0.012
10000 MHz	contacts	54,161	209.29	-0.004	-0.021	-0.085	-0.029	+0.030
24000 MHz	contacts	3,808	95.19	-0.210	-0.334	-0.217	-0.360	+0.018
47000 MHz	contacts	759	62.72	-0.114	-0.216	-0.253	-0.233	-0.023
75000 MHz	contacts	109	47.53	-0.680	-0.699	-0.768	-0.620	+0.434
122000 MHz	contacts	63	16.26	+0.039	-0.129	-0.041	-0.127	+0.355

Derived per-band weights

Band	n	source	humidity	time_of_day	td_depression	refractivity	sky	season	wind	rain	pwat	pressure
50 MHz	372,468	pskr	0.1352	0.0271	0.1415	0.0736	0.0999	0.2156	0.0999	0.0170	0.1263	0.0639
144 MHz	12,927	pskr	0.1862	0.0196	0.1491	0.1118	0.0621	0.1172	0.0621	0.0106	0.1693	0.1121
222 MHz	7,518	contacts	0.2012	0.0272	0.1806	0.0986	0.0752	0.1318	0.0752	0.0128	0.1541	0.0432
432 MHz	975	pskr	0.1472	0.0261	0.1735	0.1694	0.0722	0.1169	0.0722	0.0123	0.1272	0.0830
902 MHz	1,754	contacts	0.2206	0.0299	0.1765	0.0955	0.0735	0.1090	0.0735	0.0125	0.1279	0.0810
1296 MHz	2,951	contacts	0.2255	0.0339	0.1519	0.1433	0.0751	0.1013	0.0751	0.0128	0.1334	0.0476
2304 MHz	719	contacts	0.1890	0.0285	0.1512	0.1477	0.0630	0.0849	0.0630	0.0339	0.1718	0.0672
3400 MHz	335	contacts	0.2000	0.0301	0.1601	0.1107	0.0666	0.0899	0.0666	0.0507	0.1818	0.0434
5760 MHz	321	contacts	0.1719	0.0297	0.1577	0.0599	0.0656	0.0885	0.0656	0.0790	0.1689	0.1133
10000 MHz	54,161	contacts	0.1262	0.0380	0.1010	0.0986	0.0841	0.1134	0.0841	0.1431	0.1147	0.0967
24000 MHz	3,808	contacts	0.1485	0.0403	0.1189	0.0498	0.0495	0.0734	0.0495	0.2228	0.1350	0.1123
47000 MHz	759	contacts	0.1406	0.0529	0.1125	0.0500	0.0468	0.0758	0.0468	0.2391	0.1278	0.1077

Changes vs prior `band_weights.json`

No prior file, or no factor moved by ≥0.005. First-run values can be compared to the in-tree @band_configs weights in lib/microwaveprop/propagation/band_config.ex.

Applying these weights

This script writes priv/algo/band_weights.json and stops there — it never edits band_config.ex. To make the weights live, BandConfig.weights(band_mhz) needs a one-time edit to read this JSON at app start (cache in :persistent_term) and merge band_overrides[band].weights over the in-source defaults. Until then, the JSON is documentation only.

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