Both retired in light of the 2026-04-25 revision report
(`docs/algo-reports/2026-04-25-algo-revisions.md`):
* HPBL boundary-layer multiplier in `Scorer.score_refractivity/{3,4,5}`
is gone. On the n=47,418 10 GHz HRRR-matched corpus rho_hpbl is
+0.004; binned distance is flat to within ±5 % across 200–2,000 m.
The previously reported 2.3× ratio between shallow and deep HPBL
bins was a small-corpus artefact that disappeared once the matched
corpus passed ~5,000 contacts.
* Native-profile 1.15× duct boost is gone. At 10 GHz on n=52,341
matched contacts, cells where `best_duct_band_ghz` ≥ band ran
*shorter* than no-duct cells (198 km vs 211 km, n=173 vs 44,658).
The Bulk Richardson gate that existed only to suppress that boost
in turbulent conditions is also retired; arity preserved on every
`score_refractivity` overload so callers compile unchanged.
Same retirements applied in the Rust port (`rust/prop_grid_rs/src/scorer.rs`)
to keep the Elixir/Rust parity tests green.
algo.md updated end-to-end:
* Finding 4 (HPBL) rewritten to "no usable signal" with the
n=47,418 bin table.
* Finding 5 (gradient) tightened: load-bearing only at 24 GHz,
set band-specific gradient weight to 0 outside [10, 47] GHz on
the next derive_band_weights run.
* Finding 8 (time-of-day) augmented with the robust hour-bucketed
amplitude index (40 / 82 / 101 % at 10 / 24 / 47 GHz) and a
selection-bias caveat for VHF/UHF (where 129–148 % amplitude
reflects evening contest scheduling, not propagation).
* Finding 9 (sounding) refreshed against the n=27,058 corpus.
* Part 2c "Native-profile duct boost" rewritten as
"retired 2026-04-25" with the falsifying join.
* Part 2c "Commercial-link inverse sensor" promoted from deferred
with the 22-day, 38k-sample SNMP corpus, the +0.61 / −0.61 PWAT
and pressure correlations against the 37-hour HRRR overlap, and
the 04–05 / 10–12 local two-peak morning fade window.
* Part 2b "Pressure" annotated with the U-shape at 10 GHz and the
next-iteration target.
* Part 2d "What stayed, what left" + "Open items" updated to
reflect the four code/doc moves.
119 Elixir scorer tests green, 134 Rust scorer tests green, 2,888
total Elixir tests + 221 properties green via `mix precommit`.
Ran recalibrate_algo.py against the full local prop_dev (81,994 contacts,
18.6M HRRR rows) and derived per-band composite weights for the nine
bands with >=200 matched contacts. Moisture (dewpoint/PWAT/surface N)
is consistently beneficial through 5.76 GHz, reverses at 24 GHz; rain
scales sqrt(rain_k) not linearly so 24 GHz gets 0.215 rain weight
instead of the linear-ratio 0.95. 10 GHz stays as the reference band
(defaults); 47+ GHz inherits defaults (n<200).
- BandConfig.weights/1 returns per-band override or default fallback
- @band_configs carries :weights on 222/432/902/1296/2304/3400/5760/24G
- Recalibrator.compute_factors/3 + fit(band_mhz:) band-aware fitting
- Scorer + ContactLive.Show pass band_config to weights/1
- algo.md Part 2d documents the 2026-04-18 analysis + derivation rule
- scripts/derive_band_weights.py turns correlations into weight maps
- report preserved at docs/algo-reports/2026-04-18-recalibration.md
Three new analysis passes in scripts/recalibrate_algo.py that match the
scoring factors landed in commit 86364f4:
* NEXRAD composite reflectivity vs distance per band — checks that the
Marshall-Palmer rain rate in Scorer.dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr/1 moves the
needle in the expected direction at 24+ GHz.
* hrrr_native_profiles.best_duct_band_ghz vs distance per band —
validates the 1.15× boost in Scorer.score_refractivity/4. Current
corpus shows essentially zero contacts with a native duct supporting
≥5 GHz at the target band, consistent with the 0.12% rate in Part 2c;
the boost is physics-correct but almost never fires today.
* Commercial-link rx_power degradation vs contemporaneous DFW contacts —
pearson + binned distance. Empty today because commercial_samples only
covers Mar 30–Apr 13 and contests don't overlap. Scaffolding is in
place so the moment contest-season overlap exists, the signal shows.
Report rebuilt at docs/algo-reports/2026-04-13-recalibration.md.
Direct queries against prod (75M HRRR profiles, 16,864 soundings, 392k
surface obs, new hrrr_native_profiles table) drive these changes:
* Reinstate shallow-BL bonus as an HPBL multiplier on the refractivity
score (1.10× <200m → 0.78× ≥2000m). The Apr 11 "shallow BL bonus
removed" conclusion was an artifact of the prior matching strategy;
with the cleaner contact↔HRRR join (n=680) the binned data goes 230 km
avg at HPBL <200m vs 100 km at ≥2000m, monotonic across all bins.
* Add 6 missing bands (142, 145, 288, 322, 403, 411 GHz) so contacts in
those bands stop being silently dropped. Coefficients extrapolate
ITU-R P.676/P.838 trends from the existing 134/241 GHz entries.
* Bump ERA5 poll timeout 10 min → 1 hour and Era5MonthBatchWorker
max_attempts 3 → 5 so CDS slowness stops discarding tiles. Also dump
the full failure body when CDS omits the message field — the prior
"ERA5 job failed: nil" was masking real error reasons in oban_jobs.
* Add scripts/recalibrate_algo.py so this analysis can be re-run any
time new data lands without manual SQL. Reads PROP_PROD_DB_URL from
.envrc, drops a Markdown report into docs/algo-reports/.
* Append a dated Part 2c to algo.md documenting the corpus expansion,
the honest accounting of historical HRRR coverage (only ~1,020 of 58k
contacts are precision-matchable), and the empty era5/rtma/climatology
tables. Update the gaseous-absorption and rain-attenuation tables to
include the new bands.
Test suite: 1,335 tests, 0 failures.
