The /path calculator showed "0 / 9 HRRR points" in production despite
the on-disk profile store being current. Root cause: profile_from_cell/2
treated the cell's :profile key as a wrapper sub-map and called
Map.put_new on it — but the :profile key actually holds the vertical
pressure-level LIST. Every point sample crashed with BadMapError, the
crash propagated as {:exit, _} through Task.async_stream, and the
consumer silently dropped all 9 results.
Fix: stop wrapping. Cells are already flat HrrrProfile-shaped maps;
just stamp lat/lon (from the caller, since cells don't carry their
own coords — those are the map key) and valid_time onto the cell.
Audit + log every other async error path so the next silent failure
isn't invisible:
- PathLive HRRR point lookup
- Propagation.point_forecast per-hour reads
- Viewshed ray crashes
- IemClient ASOS network fetches
- RtmaClient range-download tasks
- Recalibrator factor-vector batches (positive + negative samples)
- MapLive forecast preload tasks
- RoverLive station resolution
LiveViews already had handle_async/3 exit clauses with logging. The
gap was always in Task.async_stream consumers that wrote {:exit, _} -> []
without surfacing the reason.
Add the rule to CLAUDE.md and project memory so this never repeats.
Also fix a pre-existing skewt_svg.ex compiler warning where
@critical_label_min_dy was used before being defined.
Both retired in light of the 2026-04-25 revision report
(`docs/algo-reports/2026-04-25-algo-revisions.md`):
* HPBL boundary-layer multiplier in `Scorer.score_refractivity/{3,4,5}`
is gone. On the n=47,418 10 GHz HRRR-matched corpus rho_hpbl is
+0.004; binned distance is flat to within ±5 % across 200–2,000 m.
The previously reported 2.3× ratio between shallow and deep HPBL
bins was a small-corpus artefact that disappeared once the matched
corpus passed ~5,000 contacts.
* Native-profile 1.15× duct boost is gone. At 10 GHz on n=52,341
matched contacts, cells where `best_duct_band_ghz` ≥ band ran
*shorter* than no-duct cells (198 km vs 211 km, n=173 vs 44,658).
The Bulk Richardson gate that existed only to suppress that boost
in turbulent conditions is also retired; arity preserved on every
`score_refractivity` overload so callers compile unchanged.
Same retirements applied in the Rust port (`rust/prop_grid_rs/src/scorer.rs`)
to keep the Elixir/Rust parity tests green.
algo.md updated end-to-end:
* Finding 4 (HPBL) rewritten to "no usable signal" with the
n=47,418 bin table.
* Finding 5 (gradient) tightened: load-bearing only at 24 GHz,
set band-specific gradient weight to 0 outside [10, 47] GHz on
the next derive_band_weights run.
* Finding 8 (time-of-day) augmented with the robust hour-bucketed
amplitude index (40 / 82 / 101 % at 10 / 24 / 47 GHz) and a
selection-bias caveat for VHF/UHF (where 129–148 % amplitude
reflects evening contest scheduling, not propagation).
* Finding 9 (sounding) refreshed against the n=27,058 corpus.
* Part 2c "Native-profile duct boost" rewritten as
"retired 2026-04-25" with the falsifying join.
* Part 2c "Commercial-link inverse sensor" promoted from deferred
with the 22-day, 38k-sample SNMP corpus, the +0.61 / −0.61 PWAT
and pressure correlations against the 37-hour HRRR overlap, and
the 04–05 / 10–12 local two-peak morning fade window.
* Part 2b "Pressure" annotated with the U-shape at 10 GHz and the
next-iteration target.
* Part 2d "What stayed, what left" + "Open items" updated to
reflect the four code/doc moves.
119 Elixir scorer tests green, 134 Rust scorer tests green, 2,888
total Elixir tests + 221 properties green via `mix precommit`.
Each fix is covered by a regression test that fails on `main` and
passes on this commit.
Round 1 (initial review):
* propagation: thread `latitude` into the conditions map so
`score_season/4` actually picks up regional multipliers
* hrrr_client / fetcher.rs: `nearest_hrrr_hour` rounds DOWN, never at
a future cycle that NOAA hasn't published yet
* radio: spherical-vector great-circle midpoint replaces the
arithmetic mean — anti-meridian paths no longer fold to Greenwich
* weather: `reconcile_weather_statuses` scales the longitude band by
`1 / cos(lat)` so the bbox stays ~150 km wide at every latitude
* radio/maidenhead: clamp 90°/180° below the field-bucket overflow so
`from_latlon` never emits invalid characters like 'S'
* prop_grid_rs/pipeline: merge HRRR + NEXRAD-derived rain rates and
read `best_duct_freq_ghz` into `best_duct_band_ghz` so the Native
Duct Boost actually fires
* propagation/region (Elixir + Rust): inclusive upper bounds so points
exactly at lat_max get the regional multiplier
* weather/sounding_params (Elixir + Rust): drop the 10 m gradient
floor so HRRR's thin near-surface layers stop hiding sharp ducts
* weather/sounding_params: when the profile ends inside a duct,
finalize it with the highest sample as the top instead of throwing
it away (Rust port already correct)
Round 2 (post-fix sweep):
* radio + commercial: single canonical haversine in Radio (atan2
form); Commercial delegates instead of carrying a second copy that
could disagree at threshold distances
* prop_grid_rs/profiles_file: `snap_coords` matches Elixir's
step-aware snap (`round(coord/0.125) * 0.125`, then 3-dp round) so
Rust-keyed and Elixir-keyed profile maps land on the same cell
* weather/grib2/wgrib2: `parse_lon_val_segment` uses `Float.parse`
uniformly — wgrib2 dropping the trailing `.0` from a longitude no
longer crashes the whole chain step
ScoreCache held 437 entries × ~1.94 MiB each (~850 MiB per pod) of
{band_mhz, valid_time} grids — data already on NFS as compact .prop
files. NotifyListener and ScoreCacheReconciler both eagerly materialised
every band into ETS on each Rust completion / 60s sweep, so 5 hot
replicas wasted ~4.2 GiB of redundant cache and OOMed at 6 GiB.
Bound the cache to 32 entries with eviction by oldest valid_time, drop
the eager warm loops, and let LiveView callers lazy-fill via the
existing ScoresFile read path. ScoreCacheReconciler had no remaining
purpose and is deleted; runbook + prom_ex counters updated to match.
Steady-state cache footprint ~60 MiB per pod instead of ~850 MiB.
Found by auditing the ProfilesFile, hrrr_profiles, and weather-layer
contracts against what the Rust writers actually emit.
Bug 1 (HIGH) — Rust `hrrr_points` worker upserted hrrr_profiles rows
with NULL `surface_refractivity`, `min_refractivity_gradient`, and
`ducting_detected`. The Elixir HrrrClient path always wrote them
via SoundingParams.derive. Per-QSO pages that rely on these
scalars ("N:", "dN/dh:", duct badge) showed "—" for any contact
enriched through Stream C. Fixed by porting
`surface_refractivity` + `ducting_detected` into Rust's
`sounding_params.rs` and deriving at upsert time.
Bug 2 (HIGH) — Rust f01..f18 `cell_to_profile_entry` never emitted
wind_u / wind_v / cloud_cover_pct / precip_mm into ProfilesFile
cells. `Propagation.factors_for` recomputes factor scores from the
profile cell on /map click, and these four fields are read
(wind_speed_kts, sky_cover_pct, precip_to_rate_mmhr). Result: every
f01..f18 point-detail popup showed 0 for wind/sky/rain factors.
Fixed by extracting the grib values at cell_to_profile_entry time
and whitelisting the keys for atomization in
profiles_file.ex `@mp_atom_keys`.
Bug 4 (MEDIUM) — `WeatherLayers.duct_field/2` only knew the
`SoundingParams.detect_ducts` shape (`d["base"]` / `d["strength"]`).
The Rust/HrrrNativeClient shape uses `:base_m` / `:thickness_m`
atom keys (post-ProfilesFile.read atomization). On /weather, the
Duct Base / Duct Strength layers returned nil for every Rust-origin
cell. Tolerant lookup now reads either shape; uses `thickness_m`
as the "strength" proxy for the native shape (thicker duct traps
a wider band).
Skipped (verified but lower impact):
- Rust ProfilesFile aggregates ducts as scalars, not per-layer — the
`ducts` array in the popup is always empty. Requires larger
DuctMetrics refactor in Rust; deferred.
- `complete_hrrr_task` emits no NOTIFY (vs `complete` which does).
Elixir has no matching listener yet, so adding NOTIFY alone is a
no-op; the existing cron reconciler catches it.
- `:best_duct_band_ghz` fallback in propagation.ex is dead code;
cleanup, not a bug.
133 Rust tests + 2842 Elixir tests + credo green.
New /eme page — antenna aiming + link budget for moonbounce.
Given a station (callsign / grid / lat,lon), TX power, antenna gain,
detection bandwidth, and system Tsys, the page shows in real time:
- Moon azimuth / elevation from the observer (ticks every 10 s)
- Slant range to the Moon
- EIRP breakdown: TX(dBm) + gain(dBi) = EIRP(dBm)
- Path-loss decomposition (Earth → Moon → Earth):
free-space spreading (×2)
− moon reflection gain 10·log(4π σ / λ²) where σ = ρ·π·R²
= round-trip path loss
- Band-dependent lunar albedo ρ (VHF ≈ 0.065, microwave ≈ 0.08,
mm-wave ≈ 0.02) surfaced as a named line item with the current
ρ shown to three decimals
- Received power, thermal noise floor, and SNR with a badge that
classifies the margin (strong / marginal / below noise)
- Self-echo Doppler shift with its radial-velocity driver
New modules:
- `Microwaveprop.Moon` — low-precision lunar ephemeris
(Astronomical Almanac Sec. D.4 truncated series). Provides
`julian_day/1`, `geocentric/1`, `observer_position/3`, and
`radial_velocity_km_s/3`. Accurate to ~0.3° position / ~200 km
distance — well inside any amateur EME-dish beamwidth.
- `Microwaveprop.Propagation.Eme` — path-loss helpers:
`moon_albedo/1` (band lookup), `moon_rcs_m2/1`,
`fspl_round_trip_db/2`, `moon_reflection_gain_db/2`,
`path_loss_db/3`, `received_power_dbm/1`, `noise_floor_dbm/2`,
`snr_db/1`, `doppler_shift_hz/2`.
Wired into the main nav ("EME" button) and the router between
/path and /rover.
Tests: 3 properties + 41 unit tests cover JD conversion, moon
position envelope, band-dependent albedo lookup, decomposition
identity, linearity/monotonicity of path loss and Doppler, and a
LiveView integration test against the rendered DOM.
Full suite: 2,460 tests + 170 properties; credo strict clean.
Root cause of 14 stuck hrrr-queued contacts: hrrr_point_rs's CONUS-only
grid silently writes zero profiles for out-of-bounds points (UK,
Winnipeg, Alberta, >50° lat), but the fetch task still completes
successfully. ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker's hrrr_placeholder_jobs
always emitted a queued placeholder for any contact with a pos1,
which meant mark_hrrr_status! re-flagged :queued every backfill tick
forever.
Introduce Propagation.Grid.contains?/1 as the canonical in-CONUS
check (inclusive on all four edges, nil-safe). Use it in two places
of ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker:
- hrrr_placeholder_jobs/1 now returns [] for OCONUS contacts, same
as pre-2014 / already-complete ones.
- mark_hrrr_status!/3 empty-list clause now branches on Grid.contains?
first (→ :unavailable) before falling through to the existing
NARR-coverage / :complete logic.
Next backfill tick will flip the 14 stuck OCONUS contacts in prod to
:unavailable automatically. The remaining 13 "CONUS" stuck ones are
right at the 50° edge (lat=50.1875 rounds outside the box) — same
reconciliation path.
Coverage additions:
- Grid.contains?/1 — corner-inclusive, OCONUS positive/negative
fixtures based on the actual stuck-contact pos1 values, nil/missing-
key/nil-value handling.
- enqueue_for_contact regression tests: pos1 in the UK and pos1 just
north of the lat cap both land at :unavailable, not :queued.
Suite: 2,416 tests + 159 properties (was 2,409 + 159); credo strict
clean.
Changes under lib/ (source):
- iemre_fetch_worker: replace `if transient_failure?/1` boolean predicate
+ `if/else` with a classifier that pattern-matches the error reason
directly, returning `:transient | :permanent`, and dispatch via
`case`. Three-clause head is clearer than the boolean predicate.
- scores_file.extract_points and nexrad_client.extract_box: force `//1`
step on the row/col comprehensions so an image box whose centre
lands outside the raster collapses to an empty iteration instead
of firing Elixir 1.19's ambiguous-range warning. Adds a regression
test for the right-edge box.
Test coverage added:
- Feature wrappers in Backtest.Features (theta_e_jump, shear_at_top,
duct_thickness, best_duct_freq, duct_usable_for_band,
distance_to_front / parallel_to_front stubs, all_features/0).
- NotifyListener handle_info tolerance for malformed payloads +
unknown messages, plus the PubSub broadcast side effect.
- Viewshed.effective_reach_km across every verdict / diffraction
tier / ducting-score tier combination.
- SnmpClient parse_af60_output unit conversions + unknown-column
handling; parse_snmpget_output OID normalisation and junk-line
tolerance.
- HrrrNativeClient native_level_count, native_variables,
native_messages shape, duct_messages / duct_byte_ranges.
- Changeset coverage for GeomagneticObservation, SolarFluxObservation,
SolarXrayObservation, Ionosphere.Observation, HrrrClimatology, and
Metar5minObservation — lifted each from ~50% / 0% to 100%.
- Property tests: GefsClient.dewpoint_from_rh invariants (Td ≤ T,
monotonic in RH, finite across the operating envelope) + idempotent
nearest_run. NexradClient.pixel_to_dbz monotonicity + bounded
output; latlon_to_pixel round-trip for every grid cell.
Also cleared several unrelated compiler/linter warnings:
- Three private test helpers (create_contact, insert_contact,
current_hour) had `\\ %{}` / `\\ 0` defaults that no caller used.
- profiles_file_test bound `dir` in a pattern match without using it.
Suite: 2,359 tests + 146 properties pass (was 2,300 / 139); coverage
70.38% → 70.89%; credo strict clean.
Rust workers (prop-grid-rs) that die mid-claim (SIGKILL, OOM, node
drain) leave grid_tasks rows stuck in status='running' forever,
because claim_next uses FOR UPDATE SKIP LOCKED and nothing resets the
orphan. The /status page then shows a permanent spinner with stale
f00/f10/f18 badges — currently 21 rows claimed as far back as
2026-04-20.
GridTaskEnqueuer.reclaim_stale_running/1 flips rows whose claimed_at
is older than 15 minutes back to 'queued'. Rows that have already
burned through 5 claim/reclaim cycles become 'failed' with a
reclaim-orphan error so the next hourly seed can replace them.
Wired into PropagationGridWorker.seed_chain/0 so it runs every :05
cron tick before new rows are seeded.
Also rename the status panel "Retrying" column to "Failed" — it was
always showing terminal `failed` rows, never retrying ones.
Hot pods were restart-looping every ~25 minutes on liveness probe
timeouts. Root cause: ScoreCacheReconciler mirrored every .prop file
from NFS into ETS, including 7 days of GEFS Day 2-7 forecasts. With
23 bands × 43 valid_times × ~2 MB per grid = 1.95 GB in the
propagation_score_cache table alone; GC sweeps starved the
scheduler enough that /live dropped its 3 s budget.
The /map UI only ever requests the [now-1h, now+18h] window. Share
that bound as Propagation.hot_cache_window/0 and apply it in the
reconciler's disk-scan path plus NotifyListener's post-warm prune.
Long-horizon GEFS files stay on disk and are still served via the
lazy read_from_disk_and_cache path when requested directly.
Adds ScoreCache.prune_outside_window/2 (inclusive bounds) and
updates the reconciler tests to use relative-to-now timestamps
since hardcoded fixture dates now drift out of window.
The main /map timeline was rendering each forecast hour twice
('Now 22:00' + '0h 22:00', '+1h 23:00' + '+1h 23:00', …).
Root cause: during the rolling `.ntms` → `.prop` rename window,
both extensions live on NFS for the same valid_time. `list_score_files`
matches either, so `list_valid_times_raw` mapped 2 files → 2 DateTimes
with no dedupe. Propagation.available_valid_times inherited the dup,
push_timeline pushed it to the JS hook, renderTimeline drew one chip
per entry — hence the visible duplicate.
Fix: `Enum.uniq` before the sort. Regression test writes a `.prop`
file, copies it as the same valid_time's `.ntms` legacy twin, and
asserts list_valid_times returns a single DateTime.
Also land a small refactor that was queued behind this: move the three
pure mechanism display helpers (label/1, badge_class/1, explainer/1)
out of the 2500-line contact_live/show.ex into a new
MicrowavepropWeb.ContactLive.Mechanism module. No behavior change — just
shrinks the LiveView and gives the display mapping a testable home.
Batched from a system-wide review pass.
**Rate-limit + transient-error log hygiene**
- WeatherFetchWorker: classify IEM HTTP 429 as {:snooze, 300} instead
of {:error}. Stops Oban.PerformError stack-trace spam on every
routine rate-limit during backfill, keeps the retry semantics.
- IonosphereFetchWorker: compress GIRO TLS :unknown_ca error from a
~400-char inspect blob to 'TLS unknown_ca (CA bundle missing)'.
- FreshnessMonitor: log only when an enqueue actually lands (the
Oban unique conflict case was silently dropping jobs but still
producing 'enqueuing grid worker' info lines every 5 minutes).
**Perf**
- Rust grid_level_keys(): pre-format 'TMP:{p} mb' / DPT / HGT keys
once via OnceLock instead of format!()'ing per-cell. Removes ~3.6M
String allocations per f01..f18 chain step across pipeline.rs,
hrrr_points.rs. Same for the wgrib2 :(TMP|DPT|HGT): pattern in
hrrr_points.process_batch (sfc_pattern / prs_pattern OnceLock).
- MapLive preload_forecast: Task.async_stream with max_concurrency=4
replaces the 18-wide Enum.map serial walk. Forecast cache warms
~4× faster after a band change, with ordering preserved.
- grid_tasks: partial composite index on (run_time DESC,
forecast_hour ASC) WHERE status='queued' AND kind='forecast',
matching the Rust claim query's ORDER BY. Drops the old
status-only partial that forced a sort per claim.
**Correctness**
- ContactImportWorker: add Oban unique:[keys: [:import_run_id,
:offset]]. Was missing on a worker whose perform() does a
non-idempotent atomic counter increment — a retry would double-
count imported rows.
- CommonVolumeRadarWorker: x_min..x_max default step is -1 when
x_min > x_max, triggering a runtime deprecation warning. Force
Range.new(_, _, 1) explicitly.
**Cleanup**
- Drop unused tmp_dir parameter from hrrr_point_worker + its
process_batch signature.
Score-grid files now land at `<band>/<iso>.prop` with a 4-byte "PROP"
magic header. Readers still accept the legacy `.ntms` extension and
"NTMS" magic so a rolling deploy doesn't invalidate any file already
on the shared NFS mount — legacy files age out through normal
retention.
Applied both sides of the seam: Elixir ScoresFile + regex parsers,
Rust scores_file writer + decoder. Updated the comments in all
modules that mention the extension (NotifyListener, Reconciler,
gefs_fetch_worker, map_live) and the runbook diagram. talos5 is a
DB host now, not a Rust worker — corrected the runbook accordingly.
Wrap a Task.Supervisor in a PartitionSupervisor (one partition per
scheduler) and route the four sustained async_stream callers through
`{:via, PartitionSupervisor, {Microwaveprop.TaskSupervisor, self()}}`.
Concurrent work — the hourly PropagationGridWorker pulling f00-f18
HRRR range downloads, the GEFS worker scoring its grid, and the
Recalibrator's 20-way positive/negative fan-out — no longer funnels
through a single supervisor PID.
Light/one-shot Task.async + Task.start sites (hrrr_client surface/
pressure fan-out, application boot warmup, weather fire-and-forget)
are left alone; partitioning only helps under sustained concurrency.
Every pod was rescheduling its sweep on a fixed 60 s `Process.send_after`
tick, so N replicas hit the shared NFS `/data/scores` mount and Postgres
in lock-step every minute. Add a uniform jitter of up to 20 s on top of
the 60 s base (effective range 60-80 s) so per-replica schedules drift
apart.
Expose `next_sweep_interval/0,2` as a public helper so the randomized
window can be tested deterministically with `:rand` draws rather than
mocking timers. Existing reschedule test passes `jitter_max_ms: 0` to
keep its 2 s wait window honest.
Band-warm failures in the Rust propagation_ready pipeline were only
surfaced via Logger.warning, so Prometheus had no way to see them.
The /weather GridCache hit/miss was likewise invisible while its
/map counterpart (ScoreCache) already reported cache ratio.
- NotifyListener emits [:microwaveprop, :propagation, :notify_listener, :warm]
with %{ok, err} measurements and %{valid_time} metadata after every
propagation_ready notification. Public handle_propagation_ready/1 so
tests can exercise the warm+telemetry path without Postgrex.
- GridCache.fetch/1, fetch_bounds/2, and fetch_point/3 emit
[:microwaveprop, :weather, :grid_cache, :lookup] with a :hit | :miss
metadata key on every ETS lookup.
Rework of d61fbd3's dialyzer suppression: the 4 warnings from
LiveTable.LiveResource's macro expansion are now fixed at the
root rather than hidden via .dialyzer_ignore.exs.
Changes:
- Delete .dialyzer_ignore.exs and remove ignore_warnings from
mix.exs. No more hidden suppressions.
- New MicrowavepropWeb.LiveTableResource shim that wraps
use LiveTable.LiveResource and overrides:
* maybe_subscribe/1 — explicit :ok = on Phoenix.PubSub.subscribe/2
(previously discarded, tripping :unmatched_return).
* handle_info/2 — explicit _ = on File.rm, Process.send_after.
Switch all 4 LiveTable-using LiveViews (contact_live/index,
beacon_live/index, admin/contact_edit_live, user_management_live/index)
to use MicrowavepropWeb.LiveTableResource instead.
- New priv/dep_patches/live_table-0.4.1.patch adds _ = in front of
LiveTable.LiveSelectHelpers.restore_live_select_from_params/2 in
the dep's macro-expanded handle_params/3. The call's return was
silently discarded, tripping the fourth warning per LiveView.
- New lib/mix/tasks/deps.patch.ex applies every
priv/dep_patches/*.patch to its target dep idempotently after
mix deps.get. Wired into the :setup alias + overridden
mix deps.get so the patch survives cache regeneration in CI.
- Other modified files in this commit are the spec-coverage
additions from the parallel agent pass (beacons.ex,
commercial.ex, propagation.ex, weather.ex, narr_client.ex,
run_timing.ex, 3 workers) — tighter specs for bounds, tuple
shapes, schema-typed params. Dialyzer remains at 0 after
the changes.
Upstream TODO: send a PR for the live_table `_ =` fix. Once
merged and released, drop the patch + mix task + bump the dep.
mix dialyzer --format short | grep ^lib/ | wc -l -> 0
mix test: 2165 tests, 2 pre-existing flakes (MapLive timestamp +
PropagationPrune ScoresFile), 0 regressions.
- endpoint.ex log_level/1 now filters by conn.request_path instead of
conn.path_info. Plug.Router.forward/2 (deps/plug/lib/plug.ex:170)
rewrites path_info to the unmatched remainder and extends script_name
with the matched prefix before dispatching to the forwarded plug.
/metrics is routed via forward "/metrics", MetricsPlug; by the time
Plug.Telemetry's before_send callback fires inside MetricsPlug.call/2
the conn it observes has path_info: [] and script_name: ["metrics"],
so the old log_level(%{path_info: ["metrics" | _]}) clause never
matched and the default :info level fired. request_path is set by
the adapter at entry and is never rewritten, making it the correct
discriminator. New regression test in metrics_log_suppression_test.exs
captures both the direct shape and the integration path via Plug.Test.
- Scorer.dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr/1 now uses a compile-time @mp_inv_b
constant (1 / 1.6) instead of dividing on every rain pixel.
composite_score/2's band-invariant fallback switched from four
separate short-circuits (which silently
mixed cached and freshly-computed values if only some keys were
passed) to a single Map.has_key?/2 branch that honors the "all or
none" contract. Dropped unused band_invariant_tod/1 helper.
- Propagation.replace_scores span scope tightened: the
Instrument.span([:db, :replace_scores]) now wraps only the per-band
ScoresFile.write! loop, not the upstream Enum.group_by grouping
phase. The span name + metadata stay unchanged so Grafana panels
keep working, but the fixed telemetry dispatch cost (~100µs x 2)
is no longer paid for trivially small result sets.
- Added @type t :: %__MODULE__{...} to Accounts.UserToken and
Weather.HrrrClimatology — the last two schemas that lacked one.
Elixir 1.19's set-theoretic inference benefits from every struct
having an explicit t/0 so callers can flow through tightly.
mix dialyzer --format short | grep ^lib/ | wc -l -> 0
mix test: 2165 tests, 3 pre-existing flakes, 0 new regressions.
Fixes flagged by the code-reviewer agent's pass over the session's
commits (cc9220b..7b78a25):
- Propagation.warm_cache_and_broadcast/2 now uses ScoresFile.read/2
directly and returns {:ok, :ok} | {:error, :enoent | :invalid_format}.
Previously it called ScoresFile.read_bounds/3 which silently returns
[] on missing/corrupt files, poisoning ScoreCache with an empty grid
that the reconciler couldn't heal.
- NotifyListener.warm_band/2 and ScoreCacheReconciler.warm_one/2 now
pattern-match {:error, reason} and skip (log, return :error) instead
of caching empty. rescue clauses kept as defense-in-depth for
unexpected faults in PubSub.broadcast / ETS writes.
- ScoresFile.extract_points/2 promoted to @doc public — callers that
need to distinguish missing file from empty grid can feed read/2
payloads here themselves.
- Weather.build_grid_cache_row/4: replaced || fallbacks with prefer/3
helper (Map.fetch) so a legitimate persisted ducting_detected: false
is not clobbered by a derived-from-sounding true.
- Weather.hrrr_data_fully_present?/1 @spec tightened from map() to
Contact.t() | field-constrained map, plus is_nil(qso_timestamp)
guard so callers with partial contacts get a clean false rather
than a HrrrClient.nearest_hrrr_hour/1 crash.
- AdminTaskWorker.native_derive bulk-UPDATE: chunk reduced 2000 → 500
and wrapped in try/rescue with per-row fallback on Postgrex errors
so a single bad row doesn't kill the remaining 1999 in its chunk.
- Runbook FM3 rewritten to match the actual code path (no rescue;
explicit {:error, _} pattern match). FM5 clarifies the surviving
PropagationGridWorker is a cron-fired seed worker, not a fallback
compute path.
- Dialyzer: strict flags added (:error_handling, :unknown,
:unmatched_returns, :extra_return, :missing_return). Baseline
emitted 130 warnings, mostly discarded Task.start/PubSub/Logger
returns; a follow-up will tighten those and backfill @specs.
New tests:
- ScoreCacheReconciler GenServer lifecycle: run_on_start true/false,
interval_ms rescheduling, info-level log line.
- Weather.hrrr_data_fully_present?/1: nil qso_timestamp returns false.
- Weather.build_grid_cache_rows/2: explicit ducting_detected: false
on profile beats derived true from sounding params.
- RadarFrameWorker: pins the NexradClient "NEXRAD n0q HTTP <code>"
error string contract so permanent_error?/1 classification doesn't
silently regress if the client's error format changes.
- AdminTaskWorker: remove scorer_diff no-op clause (propagation_scores table
was dropped pre-cutover; queue is drained).
- Weather: remove load_weather_grid_from_db/1 fallback — Rust writes
ProfilesFile for every forecast hour, so the DB path was unreachable
in practice and loaded stale pre-cutover data when it fired.
- Weather.build_grid_cache_row/4 now prefers persisted fields from the
ProfilesFile profile map (surface_refractivity, min_refractivity_gradient,
ducting_detected, duct_characteristics) over re-deriving from the raw
profile, matching the old DB-path semantics.
- NotifyListener: wrap per-band warm in try/rescue so one corrupt or
mid-rename .ntms file doesn't abort the remaining bands. Failures log
a warning with band + valid_time; successes still emit one info line.
- weather_grid_test: rewrite insert_hrrr_profile helper to write
ProfilesFile directly and drop the "only returns points on 0.125 grid"
test (filter was a property of the deleted DB fallback; Rust writes
only grid points by construction).
Periodic 60s sweep re-warms ScoreCache from /data/scores whenever
{band, valid_time} pairs are on disk but absent in local ETS.
Covers the three silent-fail modes of the NOTIFY/LISTEN path:
dropped notifies on reconnect, missing listener, and stale NFS
reads. Each pod reconciles its own cache — no PubSub fan-out,
no coordination required. Rescue on File.Error handles the
rare window where an atomic-rename write races the reader.
docs/runbook_propagation_pipeline.md names every failure mode
in the Rust↔Elixir seam and what recovers it.
Phase 2 cutover completed in 65693ed — Rust prop-grid-rs owns
f01-f18 production writes and the shadow path has been dead
for weeks. No callers in lib/, test/, or mix tasks.
Two wins in the /map hot path.
1. preload_forecast fired on every Leaflet moveend — which arrives in
bursts during pan/zoom — and each firing read + filtered + shipped
18 forecast-hour score lists (up to 90k cells per hour at full
CONUS view) over the LiveView websocket. Now debounced to the
trailing edge: the user must stop moving for 750 ms before we pay
the preload cost. select_band and propagation_updated go through
the same scheduler so a storm of PubSub updates during an hourly
chain also coalesces.
2. ScoreCache.grid_to_filtered_list walked the 92k-cell grid twice
(Enum.filter then Enum.map) and allocated an intermediate tuple
list between them. Enum.reduce emits only in-bounds result maps
directly — halves map traversal + drops the tuple intermediate.
The Contact list's 'Partial' badge was sticky: once a worker gave up on
a contact (upstream 404, no nearby station, IEM throttling) or the
stale-queued reconciler flipped it to :unavailable after 3 days, the
backfill cron never looked at it again. Upstream archives heal over
time — IEM backfills gaps, new ASOS stations come online, Rust worker
gains capability — so rows stayed 'Partial' that shouldn't have.
Changes:
* BackfillEnqueueWorker.type_filter now also matches <status>_status =
:unavailable when contacts.updated_at is older than a 24 h cooldown.
enqueue_for_contact is idempotent: if there's still nothing to
fetch it'll flip the status to :complete on the empty-jobs branch;
if new data shows up it builds fresh jobs.
* reconcile_stale_queued_to_unavailable now bumps updated_at when
flipping to :unavailable so the cooldown starts fresh — otherwise
the main loop would pick it right back up on the same cron tick
(stale updated_at < any reasonable cooldown) and immediately
transition :unavailable → :complete, defeating the :unavailable
signal entirely.
Also:
* Drop ScoresFile.point_score/3, dead since read_point moved to the
pread fast path in commit bd3b114.
* Clear Microwaveprop.Cache in WeatherGridTest setup. The new
ProfilesFile read cache is keyed by (base_dir, valid_time); tests
in this file reuse DateTime.utc_now() truncated to seconds and
share the default base_dir, so a prior test's cached read leaks
into the next one's expectations.
Clicks on the map were hanging for 1-3s, triggering the Phoenix topbar
progress bar visible to the user. Three hot-path improvements:
1. ScoresFile.read_point now uses a two-range :file.pread/2 — reads the
33-byte header + one cell byte (~60 bytes) instead of the full ~93 KB
file. point_forecast walks 19 forecast hours per click, so the old
full-read path was the dominant cost on cold cache.
2. ProfilesFile.read/1 and list_valid_times/0 cached via
Microwaveprop.Cache (5s TTL). Decoded profile maps are ~10 MB each
(92k cells); timeline scrub that re-clicks the same valid_time
within seconds now hits ETS instead of re-gunzipping + decoding.
Cache keys include base_dir so test setup that swaps dirs doesn't
see stale entries. Writes + prune + retain_window invalidate.
3. Endpoint log_level now filters /metrics the same way it already
filters /health — Prometheus scrapes every 5s and was producing
visible log spam.
Pod-local ETS is right for this workload (per-click read, tiny working
set); Valkey / shared memstore would not help here since each pod needs
its own fast-path lookup. File a follow-up if cross-pod score lookups
ever show up in flame graphs.
The hourly cron now only seeds grid_tasks. The chain step, native-duct
merge, NEXRAD merge, commercial-link merge, scoring, ProfilesFile
write, and band-score writes all moved to rust/prop_grid_rs.
Elixir changes:
- GridTaskEnqueuer.seed_with_analysis/1: inserts 1 kind='analysis' row
(f00) + 18 kind='forecast' rows (f01..f18).
- PropagationGridWorker: stripped from 423 LOC to a thin seeder.
perform(%{}) → GridTaskEnqueuer.seed_with_analysis.
Deleted: process_forecast_hour, merge_native_duct_data,
merge_nexrad_data, merge_commercial_link_data, compute_scores_*,
persist_profiles, record_run_timing (Rust emits spans to Prometheus
instead), apply_nexrad_observations, apply_duct_grid, timed helpers.
Test rewritten for the new shape: 0 Oban fan-out jobs, 19 grid_tasks
rows with the expected kind distribution.
HrrrNativeClient and NexradClient remain — they have other callers
(HrrrNativeGridWorker for per-QSO duct batch; NexradWorker and
CommonVolumeRadarWorker for per-contact radar). Only f00's direct
use moved.
Phase 3 Stream A: Rust's prop-grid-rs writes f00 profile files as
MessagePack (c4f309c). Elixir needs to read both formats during the
cutover window and indefinitely afterward — .mp.gz wins when both
exist.
Reader:
- path_for/1 stays on .etf.gz (Elixir legacy writer)
- mp_path_for/1 returns the .mp.gz sibling Rust lands
- read/1 prefers .mp.gz, falls back to .etf.gz, :enoent if neither
- decode_mp_body handles the top-level {v, valid_time, cells} shape
- normalize_profile atomizes a whitelist of known keys (surface_*,
native_min_gradient, ducts[], profile[] levels, ...) and leaves
everything else as strings so no String.to_atom bomb is possible
- Directory scan picks up both extensions so retain_window and
prune_older_than also work uniformly; list_valid_times dedupes
by timestamp
Adds msgpax ~> 2.4 dependency. 4 new tests cover format preference,
key atomization, :enoent path, and dedupe.
Three independent improvements in one commit:
1. Parallel band scoring (pipeline.rs):
- rayon par_iter across 23 bands replaces the serial for loop.
- All band files now write via try_join_all over spawn_blocking
instead of serializing one-at-a-time on NFS. Chain per-step
drops from ~60s to ~15-25s on a 4-core box.
2. Prometheus metrics (new metrics.rs):
- axum server on METRICS_ADDR (default :9100) exposes /metrics and
/health. Scraped by existing Prometheus via annotation.
- Histograms: chain step duration (by outcome), decode duration.
- Gauge: tasks in flight (RAII guarded so panics don't leak).
- Counter: chain steps by outcome.
- worker.rs records step duration and wraps each run in an
InFlightGuard.
3. HA + ordering fixes:
- deployment-grid-rs.yaml: replicas 1→2, required podAntiAffinity
spreads them across hosts, nodeAffinity prefers talos5 for one.
PROP_GRID_RS_PARALLELISM 4→3 per pod (6 concurrent across
replicas; smaller secondary-node footprint).
- Readiness probe on /health so rollouts wait for the runtime to
be alive.
- claim_next ordering: run_time ASC → DESC so the newest hourly
run drains before any stragglers from a broken prior run. Within
a run, forecast_hour ASC keeps nearest-first.
- grid_task_enqueuer sets kind="forecast" explicitly and updates
conflict_target to the new 3-column unique index introduced by
migration 20260419222624.
Extracts the memory-hostile HRRR fetch → decode → score pipeline for
forecast hours 1–18 into a separate Rust service (`prop-grid-rs`).
Elixir retains f00 with its native-duct + NEXRAD + commercial-link
enrichment; Rust handles the other 18 steps per hourly chain.
Hand-off via a new `grid_tasks` table (`FOR UPDATE SKIP LOCKED` claim
from Rust, Postgrex `NOTIFY propagation_ready` back to Elixir). Rust
writes the same on-disk score-grid format Elixir already uses, to the
same `/data/scores` NFS tree. Phase 1 ships in shadow mode with
PROP_SCORES_DIR=/data/scores_shadow.
Rust crate layout at `rust/prop_grid_rs/` (1:1 module parity with the
Elixir source it ports):
- grid, region, band_config, scores_file, sounding_params
- scorer: all 10 factors + composite. Matches the Elixir scorer
byte-for-byte across 115 golden-fixture samples (5 scenarios
× 23 bands).
- decoder: wgrib2 subprocess + Fortran-record lola-binary parser
- fetcher: HRRR URL derivation + idx cache (1h TTL) + 8-way
parallel byte-range downloads with 429/5xx retry
- pipeline: end-to-end chain step, f00 rejected at the boundary
- db: sqlx grid_tasks claim/complete + propagation_ready NOTIFY
- bin/worker: tokio main loop, JSON logs, SIGTERM-safe
91 Rust tests + clippy -D warnings clean. 2,158 Elixir tests green.
Elixir additions:
- `GridTaskEnqueuer` seeds fh=1..18 rows from
`PropagationGridWorker.seed_chain/0`
- `NotifyListener` LISTEN → warm `ScoreCache` → PubSub fan-out
- `ShadowComparator` diffs prod vs shadow `.ntms` bodies
- `mix rust.golden` task writes the Rust-side golden fixture
k8s: new `deployment-grid-rs.yaml` pinned to talos5 (32 GB NUC) via
`prop-grid-rs=primary` nodeSelector + `workload=grid-rs:NoSchedule`
toleration, 512 Mi limit, sharing the existing NFS `/data` mount.
The plan document is at `plans/vivid-hatching-quail.md` (local to my
workstation); phases 2 (cutover) and 3 (talos5 concurrency tuning)
follow after 72h of shadow-mode parity.
Telemetry showed the application-master process holding ~830 MiB of
terms from warm_grid_cache_from_latest_profile — the data lives in
the app master's heap and never GCs because the process is idle.
Running it in a Task.start lets the terms die with the task.
Mark GridCache, MrmsCache, NexradCache, and ScoreCache ETS tables
:compressed. The scored-band-map and HRRR grid data are map-heavy;
compression trims hundreds of MiB at a few percent CPU cost.
Memoise HRRR .idx responses in Microwaveprop.Cache. Published idx
files are immutable for a model run, but the hourly chain re-fetches
the same URL dozens of times across forecast hours. Cuts ~10s per
repeat out of hrrr_fetch_idx.
Force a garbage collect at the end of HrrrFetchWorker.perform to
reclaim the refc binary heap held from GRIB2 ranges before the Oban
producer hands the process its next job.
Two wins on the hourly propagation pipeline:
1. Parallelize the chain. seed_chain was enqueuing only f00 and
each step self-enqueued f00+1, serializing ~2.5 min × 19
forecast hours into a ~48 min chain. Fan out all 19 jobs at
once — they're genuinely independent (different HRRR URLs,
different output files) — and let queue concurrency (2 slots
× 3 pods = 6 parallel workers) drop wall time to ~10 min.
Side effect: one permanently-failing step no longer takes out
the rest of the chain, so the rescue-chain logic I added last
commit becomes unnecessary. Removed.
The :final cleanup (retain_window + purge) used to run on the
fh=18 transition; with parallel execution we don't know which
step finishes last. Cleanup now relies on the existing
PropagationPruneWorker 15-min cron for time-based pruning.
Stale chain leftovers are already a minor concern with the
15-min prune; if file bloat becomes real, PruneWorker can
gain retain_window later.
2. Hoist band-invariant factors. score_time_of_day, score_sky,
score_wind, score_pressure depend on conditions only, not the
band — but composite_score was recomputing them 17 times per
point. Added Scorer.precompute_band_invariants/1, called once
per point before the bands loop; composite_score uses the
cached values when present and falls back to computing for
any caller that doesn't pre-warm (test harness, path
integrator). Saves ~30% of the scoring inner loop.
The main map page now reads band, selected time, and map
center/zoom from URL params and updates the URL as the user pans,
zooms, picks a band, or scrubs the timeline. Pan/zoom use
push_patch replace-mode so browser history isn't spammed, while
band and time changes push fresh entries.
Also fix the 'Up to date · just now ago' pipeline chip — 'just
now' already reads as an instant so the trailing 'ago' is
redundant. Any older duration keeps it.
Added 5-arity Scorer.score_refractivity/5 that takes bulk_richardson
alongside best_duct_band_ghz. The existing 1.15× boost now only
applies when Richardson is in the stable regime (< 25) — native-
profile duct cells average 8.7-18.4 for ducting vs 38.3 for
non-ducting, so a duct-band reading under turbulent conditions is
more likely to be torn up by mechanical mixing than to carry a
beyond-LOS signal.
Wiring:
- Weather.nearest_native_duct_info/3 returns {ghz, richardson}; the
bare nearest_native_duct_ghz/3 now delegates.
- PathLive and Propagation.score_with_algorithm/7 both pull the
Richardson value into the conditions map alongside best_duct_band.
- Scorer.composite_score/2 reads conditions[:bulk_richardson] and
passes it into score_refractivity/5.
- Backward compat: 4-arity variant and nil Richardson keep the old
unconditional-boost behaviour so existing callers don't regress.
Path calculator conditions map was missing :latitude and
:best_duct_band_ghz. Scorer read them with bracket-notation so the
behaviour was defensively correct but we were leaving signal on the
floor:
- latitude: midpoint of src/dst so `score_season` picks up the right
latitude-based seasonal shift for northern vs southern paths
- best_duct_band_ghz: queried via new Weather.nearest_native_duct_ghz/3
at the midpoint so score_refractivity/4 applies the 1.15× boost
when a native-resolution duct supports the target band
Recalibrator.fit/1 was serialising ~10k per-contact HRRR lookups
(5000 positives + 5000 negatives, one Weather.find_nearest_hrrr each).
Parallelised both sides with Task.async_stream at 20 concurrency —
well under the prod db pool of 30. Cuts a band recalibration from
~minutes of query round-trips to seconds.
Classifies every contact's likely non-LOS propagation mechanism and
persists the result on contacts.propagation_mechanism. Mechanism is
determined in priority order:
1. user_declared_prop_mode (ADIF PROP_MODE from the operator log)
2. EME — moon-ephemeris check, ≥2m band, >1800 km path
3. aurora — Kp≥5 + high-lat path, 50-432 MHz
4. sporadic-E — foEs × 5 ≥ band_mhz, 400-2500 km path
5. meteor_scatter — ±3 days of a shower peak, VHF/UHF
6. rain_scatter — common-volume radar heavy rain, 5-11 GHz ≤800 km
7. tropo_duct — HRRR native_best_duct ≥ band or ducting_detected
8. line_of_sight — ≤50 km path
9. troposcatter — default
Persisted via MechanismClassifyWorker (queue: :mechanism, unique on
contact_id). Submit-time enqueue path includes :mechanism by default;
BackfillEnqueueWorker cron now handles :mechanism alongside existing
types so prod continuously backfills any contact with
propagation_mechanism_status in (:pending, :queued, :failed). Also
added :radar to the cron's type list so common-volume radar backfill
runs automatically rather than only via `mix radar_backfill`.
New modules:
- Microwaveprop.Propagation.MoonEphemeris — Meeus low-precision moon
position, accuracy ±1° — enough for the mutual-visibility EME test
- Microwaveprop.Propagation.MechanismClassifier — plug-in priority
chain over the evidence map
- Microwaveprop.Workers.MechanismClassifyWorker — assembles inputs
from HRRR / native profiles / common-volume radar / solar_indices /
ionosonde + calls the classifier
ADIF importer now reads PROP_MODE into user_declared_prop_mode so
operator-tagged mechanisms (EME/ES/MS/RS/AS/AUR) become ground truth.
Ran recalibrate_algo.py against the full local prop_dev (81,994 contacts,
18.6M HRRR rows) and derived per-band composite weights for the nine
bands with >=200 matched contacts. Moisture (dewpoint/PWAT/surface N)
is consistently beneficial through 5.76 GHz, reverses at 24 GHz; rain
scales sqrt(rain_k) not linearly so 24 GHz gets 0.215 rain weight
instead of the linear-ratio 0.95. 10 GHz stays as the reference band
(defaults); 47+ GHz inherits defaults (n<200).
- BandConfig.weights/1 returns per-band override or default fallback
- @band_configs carries :weights on 222/432/902/1296/2304/3400/5760/24G
- Recalibrator.compute_factors/3 + fit(band_mhz:) band-aware fitting
- Scorer + ContactLive.Show pass band_config to weights/1
- algo.md Part 2d documents the 2026-04-18 analysis + derivation rule
- scripts/derive_band_weights.py turns correlations into weight maps
- report preserved at docs/algo-reports/2026-04-18-recalibration.md
Add a propagation_run_timings table so the wall-clock duration of each
(run_time, forecast_hour) step is queryable long after the run is over.
Keyed by (run_time, forecast_hour) with a status column that captures
whether the step succeeded or bailed out, and an error string on
failure.
PropagationGridWorker stamps every step (ok and failed) via
Propagation.record_run_timing/1. Timing inserts are wrapped in rescue +
changeset-error handling so the instrumentation can never brick the
chain.
57,186 prod contacts stored pos1/pos2 with 'lng'; 1,133 used 'lon'.
Every Elixir caller carried a `pos["lon"] || pos["lng"]` fallback
— which just caused a SQL widget to silently miscount 98% of contacts
(count_narr_done used `pos1->>'lon'` directly, no fallback, so every
lng-keyed row returned NULL and failed the coverage check).
- Migration rewrites every pos1/pos2 JSONB in place, renaming 'lng' to
'lon' and dropping 'lng'.
- Removes all 20+ `|| pos["lng"]` fallbacks across lib/, workers,
scorer, weather, radio.ex, contact show view, and recalibrator.
- lib_ml/propagation_analyze.ex SQL now reads pos1->>'lon' directly
(was reading 'lng' only, which would have broken after migration).
- priv/repo/import_contacts.exs one-time seed script now emits 'lon'
with string keys, matching production shape.
- Test fixtures in 4 test files normalized to 'lon'.
- Two lng-characterization tests deleted — nonsensical post-normalize.
- Updated notebook + old import_weather script to match.
- JS hook contact_map_hook.ts TypeScript type narrowed to 'lon'.
FreshnessMonitor's comment claimed 'Oban unique constraint on
PropagationGridWorker prevents duplicates' — but the worker declared
no unique: option. During a long outage the monitor's 5-min stale-check
tick would pile up identical jobs (a 2h outage = 24 stacked jobs, each
doing the full f00-f18 HRRR chain).
Put the dedup on the worker (vs. the monitor's insert call) so anything
enqueuing it benefits — FreshnessMonitor, the hourly cron, or a manual
mix propagation_grid run.
unique: [period: 3600, states: [:available, :scheduled, :executing,
:retryable]] aligns with the hourly cron cadence. The seed job args
(%{}) collapse with themselves while chain-step jobs keep distinct
run_time/forecast_hour and remain enqueuable.
The US 9cm amateur allocation was cut from 3300-3500 to 3300-3450 MHz
in 2020, so 3456 (the legacy weak-signal calling frequency) is no
longer in-band. Move the canonical key to 3400, migrate existing
contacts, and keep 3456 input resolving to 3400 via the
nearest-band snap so historical ADIF/CSV logs still import cleanly.
Expands submittable-contact bands to include 6m, 2m, 1.25m, and 70cm
(as 432 rather than the old 440 placeholder). Each new band gets an
explicit allocation window in BandResolver.nearest_band so ADIF FREQ
fields near the amateur allocations resolve correctly while 60-900 MHz
frequencies outside those windows are still rejected. Microwave
(>= 900 MHz) snapping is unchanged — nearest-band match across the
full @allowed_bands list.
Also adds BandConfig entries for 50 and 222 (tropo-only config, same
pattern as 144/432). Sporadic-E / F2 / meteor scatter modeling is not
yet in scope — ionosphere data is only used to compute an Es readout
on /path for 50/144/222/432.
The persisted grid_data files contain atoms (:base_m, :top_m,
:thickness_m, :min_freq_ghz, :native_min_gradient, :ducts, etc.) that
live in modules which aren't eagerly loaded during application start.
warm_grid_cache_from_latest_profile runs in Application.start/2 before
those modules get pulled in by their first call sites, so [:safe] was
rejecting our own legitimate files at boot — every weather page hit
crashed with "invalid or unsafe external representation of a term".
The whole point of [:safe] is to refuse atoms from untrusted external
ETF input. ProfilesFile.write!/2 in this same module is the only writer
of these files, so the input is trusted by definition — drop the flag.
The test additions round-trip the production data shape including duct
fields as a regression guard.
First HF prediction building block. GIRO publishes MUFD — the F2-layer
maximum usable frequency at the 3000 km reference distance — directly
from station measurements, already calibrated against CCIR M(3000)F2
climatology. Rather than recomputing MUF from scratch (which would
require the ~2 MB CCIR coefficient tables), this module treats the
measured MUFD as the anchor and scales it to the actual path distance
using a thin-layer secant-of-incidence ratio.
That keeps the measurement calibration (~3.3× foF2 at our fixture, vs
~5.1× from a naive thin-layer formula) and only uses the thin-layer
math for the relative distance correction.
* adjust_mufd/2 — scales MUFD(3000) to an arbitrary hop distance.
At D=3000 it's a no-op; shorter paths get lower MUF (near-vertical),
longer paths within the single-hop window get higher MUF.
* fot/1 — standard 0.85 × MUF Frequency of Optimum Traffic.
* hf_score/2 — 0-100 band-vs-MUF score with 5-tier curve:
100 (≤ 0.75×MUF) / 80 (FOT) / 50 (≤ MUF) / 20 (fringe) / 0 (dead).
Limitations are in the moduledoc: single-hop only, nearest-station
bias, no LUF/D-layer absorption, no Kp geomagnetic storm modeling.
Those are separate commits once this has bake time.
Not yet wired into PathLive — follow-up commit will add HF bands to
BandConfig and wire the panel.
Adds the missing link between the GIRO ionosonde data we just started
ingesting and the VHF/UHF band scoring:
* `Microwaveprop.Propagation.SporadicE` — ITU-R P.534-6 / Davies 1990
thin-layer Es MUF (sec(i) · foEs with h=110 km), plus an `es_score/3`
that maps (foEs, target band, hop distance) into a 0-100 single-hop
propagation likelihood. Calibrated against literature: 50 MHz Es at
2000 km needs foEs ≳ 5.5 MHz (routine summer); 144 MHz needs
foEs ≳ 15.8 MHz (rare Jun/Jul peaks only); 440 MHz Es does not occur
at physical foEs values. Multi-hop Es and Es-scatter are separate
factors and explicitly out of scope.
* `Ionosphere.nearest_foes/3` — given a lat/lon, returns the latest
observation from the nearest polled GIRO station (Millstone Hill or
Alpena for now), with a configurable staleness cutoff (default 2h).
Returns `{:error, :stale}` or `{:error, :no_data}` so callers can
choose whether to apply the Es factor at all.
Neither is wired into the grid scorer yet — that's a separate commit
so the integration can be reviewed on its own.
Both bands share the physics of low microwave: humidity and refractivity
gradient build ducts the same way, and rain + gas absorption are
effectively zero at VHF/UHF. humidity_effect is :beneficial, rain_k /
rain_alpha are (0, 1), and o2_db_km / h2o_coeff are 0.
Range estimates reflect tropo reality: 2m ducts can reach 2500+ km
under exceptional conditions (e.g. documented Hawaii ↔ California
openings), 70cm a bit less. The seasonal base matches the low-microwave
summer-peak curve.
These configs do NOT capture sporadic-E, meteor scatter, or aurora —
those need ionospheric data (GIRO ionosondes, NOAA SWPC) we don't yet
ingest. The scoring on these bands is therefore "tropo-only" and will
underestimate openings driven by ionospheric modes.
Two related UI changes driven by the same data:
* Move the selected-layer description out of the sidebar and into a
dedicated top-right overlay on the map. The sidebar kept the same
layer buttons but dropped the descriptive text; the new overlay
shows group + layer name + description in one card. Mobile still
shows the description in the collapsible panel since it has no
top-right free real estate.
* Add a forecast-hour timeline bar at the bottom of the map, matching
the propagation map. WeatherMapLive enumerates ProfilesFile on mount
(the grid worker has been persisting f00..f18 on disk since
commit 07ffcf5), pushes data-valid-times for the JS hook to render
as buttons, and handles a new select_time event by reading the
per-hour ProfilesFile on demand via Weather.weather_grid_at/2.
weather_grid_at/2 deliberately skips the GridCache write path for
non-latest hours — caching 18 × 92k rows would add ~300 MB per pod.
A ~2 MB ETF decode per scrub is fast enough for a click.
Subscribes to propagation:pipeline so the timeline picks up new
forecast hours live as they land, without waiting for the full chain
to finish.
