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Author SHA1 Message Date
Graham McIntire
2eefe64c9b Update seasonal scores from sounding data, document commercial link patterns 
Soundings (10,935): October has strongest gradients (-350 N/km) and
65.7% ducting, raised seasonal score 82→88. February ducting (20.2%)
exceeds January (14.8%), raised 32→40.

Commercial links (12,068 samples): 68 GHz shows 3.9 dB diurnal swing,
11 GHz shows 1.7 dB with inverted multipath pattern, 24 GHz remarkably
stable at 0.9 dB. Diurnal sensitivity is non-monotonic with frequency.

RAOB gradients avg -265 N/km vs HRRR -107 (2.5x stronger) — confirms
HRRR misses thin surface ducts that soundings resolve.
 2026-04-07 11:45:44 -05:00
FluxCD
b86e0359ea chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775578557-be70d39 [skip ci] 2026-04-07 16:18:31 +00:00
Graham McIntire
3cdd132f24 Data-driven algorithm refinements from full dataset analysis 
Analyzed 37,925 HRRR-matched contacts from 58,367 total.

- Remove shallow BL bonus (score 82 for HPBL < 300m): data shows
  medium BL (1000-2000m) produces longest contacts (222 km avg),
  not shallow (210 km). Refractivity fallback now uses default score.

- Refine pressure scoring bins: add <980 mb tier (score 88), steeper
  gradient from low to high. Contacts at <970 mb avg 242.7 km vs
  184.1 km at 990-1000 mb.

- Update algo.md calibration stats (58,367 contacts, 41M HRRR
  profiles, 58,361 terrain profiles) and document dataset bias
  (99.5% Aug-Sep).

- Create updates.md with full binned analysis tables for all factors.
 2026-04-07 11:15:49 -05:00
Graham McIntire
511ae09fea Fix livebook path resolution in bin/notebook 
Falls back to mix escripts directory when livebook isn't in PATH.
 2026-04-07 11:15:49 -05:00
Graham McIntire
3cc4301855 Auto-deploy analysis notebook as Livebook app 
Add app_settings metadata to notebook and set LIVEBOOK_APPS_PATH
so it shows up under Apps on the Livebook home page.
 2026-04-07 11:15:49 -05:00
Graham McIntire
548e277bec Add bin/notebook script to start Phoenix + Livebook together 
Starts Phoenix with a named node and Livebook attached to it on
port 8081. Single command, Ctrl-C stops both.
 2026-04-07 11:15:49 -05:00
Graham McIntire
44f0ff26e5 Add mix notebook task for Livebook attached to dev node 
Run `mix notebook` for instructions to start Livebook at localhost:8081
connected to the running Phoenix node with full Repo/Scorer access.
 2026-04-07 11:15:49 -05:00
Graham McIntire
6252aff728 Rewrite analysis notebook to attach to running node 
Uses Repo, Scorer, BandConfig, Weather directly instead of raw SQL.
Scores all historical contacts with the real composite_score/2 and
includes factor heatmaps and weight sensitivity analysis.
 2026-04-07 11:15:48 -05:00
Graham McIntire
7f0e1f4182 Add Livebook notebook for propagation algorithm analysis 
Connects to local dev DB to analyze contacts, HRRR conditions,
terrain impact, commercial link correlation, and score sensitivity.
Ready for use once prod data is imported locally.
 2026-04-07 11:15:48 -05:00
FluxCD
f8f2450ec1 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775566243-7f457e4 [skip ci] 2026-04-07 12:51:39 +00:00
Graham McIntire
976cd1a4c5 Remove icons from navigation links in map control panels 2026-04-07 07:50:36 -05:00
Graham McIntire
a774e98350 Smooth viewshed boundary to remove SRTM elevation spikes 
Apply 5-point circular moving average to reach_km values before
rendering the boundary polygon. Eliminates sharp spikes caused by
isolated terrain anomalies in SRTM data.
 2026-04-07 07:42:32 -05:00
FluxCD
05fcb6f5be chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775565490-61e4196 [skip ci] 2026-04-07 12:39:36 +00:00
FluxCD
d409c190d5 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775565429-f0340a2 [skip ci] 2026-04-07 12:38:36 +00:00
Graham McIntire
721d59ed77 Remove stale propagation scores maintenance banner 2026-04-07 07:38:03 -05:00
Graham McIntire
e03b9fbc0e Add periodic enrichment backfill cron and terrain reconciliation 
Runs BackfillEnqueueWorker every 30 minutes to pick up contacts with
pending/queued/failed enrichment status and enqueue missing jobs.
Before enqueueing, reconciles terrain contacts stuck in "queued" by
checking the terrain_profiles FK directly.
 2026-04-07 07:36:57 -05:00
FluxCD
8e39cfcc4c chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775513079-b5a87e0 [skip ci] 2026-04-06 22:05:15 +00:00
Graham McIntire
d63653e9a1 Bump terrain queue concurrency to 3 per pod 2026-04-06 17:04:26 -05:00
FluxCD
7c7dc80acf chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775512945-6ab4ba7 [skip ci] 2026-04-06 22:03:25 +00:00
Graham McIntire
f2e6512974 Re-enable hourly propagation grid scoring in production 2026-04-06 17:02:18 -05:00
FluxCD
c6c4214a91 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775512477-be9b890 [skip ci] 2026-04-06 21:56:05 +00:00
Graham McIntire
79130a39e8 Mark terrain status complete when profile already exists 
TerrainProfileWorker early-exited with :ok when a profile existed
but never updated the contact status, leaving contacts stuck at queued.
 2026-04-06 16:54:29 -05:00
FluxCD
366258e329 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775509847-dcf5190 [skip ci] 2026-04-06 21:11:31 +00:00
Graham McIntire
646467cf4d Store stub records on empty weather fetches to prevent infinite backfill retries 
When ASOS/RAOB/IEMRE APIs return empty data, store a stub record so
dedup checks (has_surface_observations?, has_sounding?, has_iemre_observation?)
see coverage and don't recreate the same jobs on future backfill runs.
 2026-04-06 16:10:39 -05:00
FluxCD
a6ae6ce973 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775499376-15ec8af [skip ci] 2026-04-06 18:17:26 +00:00
Graham McIntire
c3819112fe Persist checkbox and limit state across backfill enqueue submissions 2026-04-06 12:46:08 -05:00
FluxCD
ef44109351 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775494893-2fd0175 [skip ci] 2026-04-06 17:02:37 +00:00
Graham McIntire
98289ec16e Fix format_number reversing digits 
Enum.reverse/1 was reversing each chunk's characters, scrambling the
displayed numbers (e.g. 58,363 displayed as 85,363).
 2026-04-06 12:01:25 -05:00
FluxCD
f9e2ba294d chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775494509-975e6c9 [skip ci] 2026-04-06 16:56:34 +00:00
Graham McIntire
9ffeba3fc9 Suppress health check request logs 
/health gets hit constantly by k8s probes, drowning out useful logs.
 2026-04-06 11:55:01 -05:00
FluxCD
88783765f1 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775494141-8768175 [skip ci] 2026-04-06 16:50:32 +00:00
Graham McIntire
4ba7269e57 Prioritize pending contacts over queued in backfill 
Queued contacts just need reconciliation (check if data exists),
while pending contacts need actual HRRR fetches. Process pending
first so real work happens before reconciliation.
 2026-04-06 11:48:55 -05:00
FluxCD
89eafcb1b0 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775493753-3737842 [skip ci] 2026-04-06 16:43:31 +00:00
Graham McIntire
e99e585b66 Add type filter to backfill enqueue 
Backfill dashboard now has checkboxes to select which enrichment types
to process (HRRR, Weather, Terrain, IEMRE). Prevents weather jobs from
flooding the queue when only HRRR needs work.
 2026-04-06 11:42:26 -05:00
FluxCD
ca6e836bd9 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775491184-a80a981 [skip ci] 2026-04-06 16:00:21 +00:00
Graham McIntire
89ade2e8cc Bump HRRR queue concurrency from 1 to 5 per pod 
15 concurrent HRRR fetches across 3 pods to process the 16,870
contacts that need fresh HRRR data from NOAA.
 2026-04-06 10:54:45 -05:00
FluxCD
023fef4d8c chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775490031-fda468c [skip ci] 2026-04-06 15:41:17 +00:00
Graham McIntire
0e885001bc Widen HRRR profile spatial matching from 0.05° to 0.07° 
The propagation grid stores profiles at 0.125° intervals, so contacts
up to 0.0625° from a grid point would miss with the old 0.05° tolerance.
This caused has_hrrr_profile? and find_nearest_hrrr to fail matching
against existing data, leaving contacts incorrectly stuck as pending.
 2026-04-06 10:40:25 -05:00
FluxCD
a8f6a3b0e8 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775489105-fbfd9ea [skip ci] 2026-04-06 15:26:12 +00:00
Graham McIntire
eeb92bcc19 Fix HRRR enrichment status stuck at queued/pending 
enqueue_for_contact unconditionally marked contacts as :queued even
when no HRRR jobs were needed (profiles already exist). Workers never
updated contact status to :complete after storing profiles. Contacts
got stuck and were never re-processed.

- Mark :complete when no jobs generated (data already exists)
- Include :queued in backfill enrichable states for reconciliation
 2026-04-06 10:24:56 -05:00
FluxCD
c9d1abafda chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775488547-a24e710 [skip ci] 2026-04-06 15:16:09 +00:00
Graham McIntire
c98aabfc15 Add BackfillEnqueueWorker tests (0→100% coverage) 2026-04-06 10:15:38 -05:00
Graham McIntire
62c9600f67 Add Tier 2 test coverage: SolarIndexWorker, HrrrFetchWorker, IemClient 
SolarIndexWorker 36→100% (date-arg clause), HrrrFetchWorker 38→42%
(batch skip, backoff), IemClient 65→74% (fetch_current_asos).
 2026-04-06 10:15:38 -05:00
Graham McIntire
7e52c6660d Add Tier 1 test coverage: EnrichmentStatus, Markdown, health, RemoteIp, Maidenhead 
EnrichmentStatus 0→100%, HealthController 0→100%, Maidenhead 74→96%,
RemoteIp 56→94%, Markdown 0→92%. Total coverage 53→55%.
 2026-04-06 10:15:38 -05:00
FluxCD
f1db86e5b1 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775487979-6bfbf71 [skip ci] 2026-04-06 15:07:06 +00:00
Graham McIntire
08f01151ca Reduce Oban concurrency for 3-pod cluster, bump memory limit 
Per-pod queues divided by 3 to maintain sane cluster totals.
Lifeline rescue reduced to 10 min to recover OOM orphans faster.
Memory limit 2Gi → 4Gi for HRRR wgrib2 processing.
 2026-04-06 10:06:13 -05:00
FluxCD
63552b0cfe chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775487377-e486ec0 [skip ci] 2026-04-06 14:58:00 +00:00
Graham McIntire
091d469c6a Enable OS and Ecto data in LiveDashboard, fix progress bars 
- Add ecto_psql_extras for PostgreSQL insights in dashboard
- Add os_mon for OS metrics (CPU, memory, disk)
- Fix progress bars using percentage instead of raw large numbers
 2026-04-06 09:56:08 -05:00
Graham McIntire
7b0208408a Fix rolling update deadlock with pod anti-affinity 
maxSurge:1 + maxUnavailable:0 deadlocks with anti-affinity since
there's no free physical host for the surge pod. Switch to
maxSurge:0 + maxUnavailable:1 to terminate one old pod first.
 2026-04-06 09:52:38 -05:00
FluxCD
a743787ce8 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1775486921-784e41c [skip ci] 2026-04-06 14:49:39 +00:00