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Graham McIntire fc3eb58910
Refresh propagation algo against expanded prod corpus (2026-04-13)
Direct queries against prod (75M HRRR profiles, 16,864 soundings, 392k
surface obs, new hrrr_native_profiles table) drive these changes:

* Reinstate shallow-BL bonus as an HPBL multiplier on the refractivity
  score (1.10× <200m → 0.78× ≥2000m). The Apr 11 "shallow BL bonus
  removed" conclusion was an artifact of the prior matching strategy;
  with the cleaner contact↔HRRR join (n=680) the binned data goes 230 km
  avg at HPBL <200m vs 100 km at ≥2000m, monotonic across all bins.
* Add 6 missing bands (142, 145, 288, 322, 403, 411 GHz) so contacts in
  those bands stop being silently dropped. Coefficients extrapolate
  ITU-R P.676/P.838 trends from the existing 134/241 GHz entries.
* Bump ERA5 poll timeout 10 min → 1 hour and Era5MonthBatchWorker
  max_attempts 3 → 5 so CDS slowness stops discarding tiles. Also dump
  the full failure body when CDS omits the message field — the prior
  "ERA5 job failed: nil" was masking real error reasons in oban_jobs.
* Add scripts/recalibrate_algo.py so this analysis can be re-run any
  time new data lands without manual SQL. Reads PROP_PROD_DB_URL from
  .envrc, drops a Markdown report into docs/algo-reports/.
* Append a dated Part 2c to algo.md documenting the corpus expansion,
  the honest accounting of historical HRRR coverage (only ~1,020 of 58k
  contacts are precision-matchable), and the empty era5/rtma/climatology
  tables. Update the gaseous-absorption and rain-attenuation tables to
  include the new bands.

Test suite: 1,335 tests, 0 failures.
2026-04-13 10:59:01 -05:00
.forgejo/workflows Install Docker CLI in CI runner container 2026-04-11 09:04:22 -05:00
.github Add contact edit approval system with admin review queue 2026-04-11 16:15:49 -05:00
assets Refresh viewshed on band change when a point is selected 2026-04-13 09:41:58 -05:00
bin Fix livebook path resolution in bin/notebook 2026-04-07 11:15:49 -05:00
config Ingest Canadian radiosondes via UWYO + plans for RDPS/HRDPS 2026-04-13 09:14:34 -05:00
docs Refresh propagation algo against expanded prod corpus (2026-04-13) 2026-04-13 10:59:01 -05:00
k8s chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1776092720-0bb3622 [skip ci] 2026-04-13 15:06:55 +00:00
lib Refresh propagation algo against expanded prod corpus (2026-04-13) 2026-04-13 10:59:01 -05:00
lib_ml Move ML deps to dev/test only, exclude from production build 2026-04-01 12:10:31 -05:00
notebooks Auto-deploy analysis notebook as Livebook app 2026-04-07 11:15:49 -05:00
priv Drop gridmap.org dependency, resolve callsigns locally 2026-04-12 17:43:29 -05:00
rel Add Erlang clustering via libcluster and expose LiveDashboard 2026-04-06 09:46:48 -05:00
scripts Refresh propagation algo against expanded prod corpus (2026-04-13) 2026-04-13 10:59:01 -05:00
test Refresh propagation algo against expanded prod corpus (2026-04-13) 2026-04-13 10:59:01 -05:00
vendor Vendor oban_pro 1.6.13 2026-04-09 14:14:49 -05:00
.credo.exs credo 2026-04-12 10:26:53 -05:00
.dockerignore Optimize Dockerfile layer caching 2026-04-01 10:32:56 -05:00
.formatter.exs initial 2026-03-28 11:28:47 -05:00
.gitignore Fix /weather 500 on cold cache, untrack k8s secret 2026-04-12 13:56:59 -05:00
.tool-versions update deps 2026-04-11 12:03:43 -05:00
AGENTS.md initial 2026-03-28 11:28:47 -05:00
algo.md Refresh propagation algo against expanded prod corpus (2026-04-13) 2026-04-13 10:59:01 -05:00
app.json Migrate healthchecks from CHECKS to app.json 2026-04-04 11:24:56 -05:00
CLAUDE.md Nudge HRRR scores with live ASOS obs between runs 2026-04-12 14:27:27 -05:00
Dockerfile Mount Oban Web dashboard at /admin/oban 2026-04-09 14:07:33 -05:00
elevation.md add elevation findings 2026-03-29 16:23:03 -05:00
mix.exs Unblock CI: pull igniter into :prod for live_table compile 2026-04-12 17:58:13 -05:00
mix.lock Add live_table dep and convert /users to use it 2026-04-12 17:07:07 -05:00
prediction.md HRRR forecast hours (f00-f18) with timeline map UI 2026-03-31 16:44:47 -05:00
README.md initial 2026-03-28 11:28:47 -05:00
tail_logs.sh Add type filter to backfill enqueue 2026-04-06 11:42:26 -05:00
updates.md Update seasonal scores from sounding data, document commercial link patterns 2026-04-07 11:45:44 -05:00

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