prop/lib/microwaveprop/propagation.ex
Graham McIntire e82e631135
HRRR forecast hours (f00-f18) with timeline map UI
- HrrrClient.hrrr_url accepts forecast_hour param (wrfsfcfHH.grib2)
- PropagationGridWorker fetches all 19 forecast hours per run
- Propagation.scores_at/3 queries scores at specific valid_time
- Propagation.available_valid_times/1 returns all forecast times for timeline
- Pruning keeps scores with valid_time >= now - 2h (forecast-aware)
- MapLive: select_time event, timeline data pushed to JS
- JS: forecast timeline bar at bottom of map with clickable hour buttons
- PubSub broadcast sends list of valid_times instead of single time
2026-03-31 16:44:47 -05:00

223 lines
6.6 KiB
Elixir

defmodule Microwaveprop.Propagation do
@moduledoc false
import Ecto.Query
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.BandConfig
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.Grid
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.GridScore
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.Scorer
alias Microwaveprop.Repo
alias Microwaveprop.Weather.SoundingParams
require Logger
@doc """
Score a single grid point across all bands using HRRR profile data.
Returns a list of %{band_mhz, score, factors} maps.
"""
def score_grid_point(hrrr_profile, valid_time) do
derived = derive_from_hrrr(hrrr_profile)
temp_c = hrrr_profile.surface_temp_c
dewpoint_c = hrrr_profile.surface_dewpoint_c
# Skip points with missing or physically impossible surface data
if is_nil(temp_c) or is_nil(dewpoint_c) or temp_c < -80 or temp_c > 60 or
dewpoint_c < -80 or dewpoint_c > 50 do
[]
else
score_grid_point_with_data(hrrr_profile, valid_time, temp_c, dewpoint_c, derived)
end
end
defp score_grid_point_with_data(hrrr_profile, valid_time, temp_c, dewpoint_c, derived) do
temp_f = Scorer.c_to_f(temp_c)
dewpoint_f = Scorer.c_to_f(dewpoint_c)
conditions = %{
abs_humidity: Scorer.absolute_humidity(temp_c, dewpoint_c),
temp_f: temp_f,
dewpoint_f: dewpoint_f,
wind_speed_kts: Scorer.wind_speed_kts(hrrr_profile[:wind_u], hrrr_profile[:wind_v]),
sky_cover_pct: hrrr_profile[:cloud_cover_pct],
utc_hour: valid_time.hour,
utc_minute: valid_time.minute,
month: valid_time.month,
pressure_mb: hrrr_profile.surface_pressure_mb,
prev_pressure_mb: nil,
rain_rate_mmhr: Scorer.precip_to_rate_mmhr(hrrr_profile[:precip_mm]),
min_refractivity_gradient: derived[:min_refractivity_gradient],
bl_depth_m: hrrr_profile[:hpbl_m]
}
Enum.map(BandConfig.all_bands(), fn band_config ->
result = Scorer.composite_score(conditions, band_config)
Map.put(result, :band_mhz, band_config.freq_mhz)
end)
end
@doc """
Upsert propagation scores in batches within a transaction so readers see all-or-nothing.
Options:
* `:prune` - whether to prune old scores after upsert (default true)
"""
def upsert_scores(scores, opts \\ []) do
now = DateTime.truncate(DateTime.utc_now(), :second)
entries =
Enum.map(scores, fn s ->
%{
id: Ecto.UUID.generate(),
lat: s.lat,
lon: s.lon,
valid_time: s.valid_time,
band_mhz: s.band_mhz,
score: s.score,
factors: s.factors,
inserted_at: now,
updated_at: now
}
end)
result =
Repo.transaction(
fn ->
entries
|> Enum.chunk_every(500)
|> Enum.reduce(0, fn chunk, acc ->
{count, _} =
Repo.insert_all(GridScore, chunk,
on_conflict: {:replace, [:score, :factors, :updated_at]},
conflict_target: [:lat, :lon, :valid_time, :band_mhz]
)
acc + count
end)
end,
timeout: :infinity
)
if Keyword.get(opts, :prune, true) do
case result do
{:ok, _count} -> prune_old_scores()
_ -> :ok
end
end
result
end
@doc "Remove scores with valid_times older than 1 hour before the earliest current forecast."
def prune_old_scores do
# Keep all forecast hours from the latest run + 1 hour buffer for the previous run
cutoff = DateTime.add(DateTime.utc_now(), -2, :hour)
{deleted, _} = Repo.delete_all(from(gs in GridScore, where: gs.valid_time < ^cutoff))
if deleted > 0 do
Logger.info("PropagationScores: pruned #{deleted} old scores (valid_time < #{cutoff})")
end
end
@doc "Returns all distinct valid_times for a band, ordered ascending."
def available_valid_times(band_mhz) do
Repo.all(
from(gs in GridScore,
where: gs.band_mhz == ^band_mhz,
select: gs.valid_time,
distinct: gs.valid_time,
order_by: [asc: gs.valid_time]
)
)
end
@doc """
Get scores for a band at a specific valid_time, optionally within a bounding box.
If valid_time is nil, uses the earliest available (current analysis hour).
Excludes factors for performance.
"""
def scores_at(band_mhz, valid_time, bounds \\ nil) do
time = valid_time || earliest_valid_time(band_mhz)
case time do
nil ->
[]
_ ->
from(gs in GridScore,
where: gs.band_mhz == ^band_mhz and gs.valid_time == ^time,
select: %{lat: gs.lat, lon: gs.lon, score: gs.score, valid_time: gs.valid_time}
)
|> maybe_filter_bounds(bounds)
|> Repo.all()
end
end
@doc "Get the latest scores for a band (alias for scores_at with earliest valid_time)."
def latest_scores(band_mhz, bounds \\ nil) do
scores_at(band_mhz, nil, bounds)
end
defp earliest_valid_time(band_mhz) do
Repo.one(from(gs in GridScore, where: gs.band_mhz == ^band_mhz, select: min(gs.valid_time)))
end
@doc "Get the full score and factors for a specific grid point, snapped to nearest grid."
def point_detail(band_mhz, lat, lon) do
step = Grid.step()
snapped_lat = Float.round(Float.round(lat / step) * step, 3)
snapped_lon = Float.round(Float.round(lon / step) * step, 3)
case latest_valid_time(band_mhz) do
nil ->
nil
latest_time ->
Repo.one(
from(gs in GridScore,
where:
gs.band_mhz == ^band_mhz and
gs.valid_time == ^latest_time and
gs.lat == ^snapped_lat and
gs.lon == ^snapped_lon,
select: %{
lat: gs.lat,
lon: gs.lon,
score: gs.score,
factors: gs.factors,
valid_time: gs.valid_time
}
)
)
end
end
defp maybe_filter_bounds(query, nil), do: query
defp maybe_filter_bounds(query, %{"south" => s, "north" => n, "west" => w, "east" => e}) do
from(gs in query,
where: gs.lat >= ^s and gs.lat <= ^n and gs.lon >= ^w and gs.lon <= ^e
)
end
@doc "Get the latest valid_time across all scores."
def latest_valid_time do
Repo.one(from(gs in GridScore, select: max(gs.valid_time)))
end
@doc "Get the latest valid_time for a specific band."
def latest_valid_time(band_mhz) do
Repo.one(from(gs in GridScore, where: gs.band_mhz == ^band_mhz, select: max(gs.valid_time)))
end
defp derive_from_hrrr(%{profile: profile}) when is_list(profile) and length(profile) >= 3 do
case SoundingParams.derive(profile) do
nil -> %{}
derived -> %{min_refractivity_gradient: derived.min_refractivity_gradient}
end
end
defp derive_from_hrrr(_), do: %{}
end