prop/lib/microwaveprop/release.ex

defmodule Microwaveprop.Release do
  @moduledoc """
  Release tasks that run in production without Mix installed.

  Usage via `bin/microwaveprop eval`:

      bin/microwaveprop eval "Microwaveprop.Release.migrate"
      bin/microwaveprop eval "Microwaveprop.Release.backtest_all"
      bin/microwaveprop eval "Microwaveprop.Release.backtest(\"naive_gradient\")"
      bin/microwaveprop eval "Microwaveprop.Release.climatology"
      bin/microwaveprop eval "Microwaveprop.Release.native_backfill(500)"
      bin/microwaveprop eval "Microwaveprop.Release.native_derive"
  """
  @app :microwaveprop

  def migrate do
    load_app()

    for repo <- repos() do
      {:ok, _, _} = Ecto.Migrator.with_repo(repo, &Ecto.Migrator.run(&1, :up, all: true))
    end
  end

  def rollback(repo, version) do
    load_app()
    {:ok, _, _} = Ecto.Migrator.with_repo(repo, &Ecto.Migrator.run(&1, :down, to: version))
  end

  @doc """
  Run a single feature backtest. Prints markdown report to stdout.
  """
  def backtest(feature_name) when is_binary(feature_name) do
    start_app()

    alias Microwaveprop.Backtest
    alias Microwaveprop.Backtest.Features

    fun_atom = String.to_atom(feature_name)

    unless function_exported?(Features, fun_atom, 3) do
      available =
        Features.__info__(:functions)
        |> Enum.filter(fn {_, a} -> a == 3 end)
        |> Enum.map_join(", ", fn {f, _} -> to_string(f) end)

      IO.puts("Unknown feature: #{feature_name}\nAvailable: #{available}")
      System.halt(1)
    end

    feature_fun = &apply(Features, fun_atom, [&1, &2, &3])
    name = "Microwaveprop.Backtest.Features.#{feature_name}"

    report = Backtest.evaluate(feature_fun, sample_size: 5000, feature_name: name)
    distance_bins = Backtest.lift_by_distance(feature_fun, sample_size: 5000)
    band_stats = Backtest.lift_by_band(feature_fun, sample_size: 5000)

    IO.puts(Backtest.to_markdown(report, distance_bins: distance_bins, band_stats: band_stats))
  end

  @doc """
  Run consolidated backtest across all features. Prints markdown to stdout.
  """
  def backtest_all do
    start_app()

    alias Microwaveprop.Backtest
    alias Microwaveprop.Backtest.Features

    features = Features.all_features()
    IO.puts("Running consolidated backtest for #{map_size(features)} features...")

    results = Backtest.consolidated_report(features, sample_size: 5000)
    IO.puts(Backtest.to_consolidated_markdown(results))
  end

  @doc """
  Build surface temperature climatology from hrrr_profiles.
  """
  def climatology(min_samples \\ 3) do
    start_app()

    alias Microwaveprop.Repo

    %{rows: combos} =
      Repo.query!(
        """
        SELECT EXTRACT(MONTH FROM valid_time)::int AS month,
               EXTRACT(HOUR FROM valid_time)::int AS hour
        FROM hrrr_profiles
        WHERE surface_temp_c IS NOT NULL AND is_grid_point = true
        GROUP BY 1, 2
        ORDER BY 1, 2
        """,
        [],
        timeout: 120_000
      )

    IO.puts("Building climatology (min_samples=#{min_samples}, #{length(combos)} batches)...")

    total =
      combos
      |> Enum.with_index(1)
      |> Enum.reduce(0, fn {[month, hour], idx}, acc ->
        %{num_rows: count} =
          Repo.query!(
            """
            INSERT INTO hrrr_climatology (id, lat, lon, month, hour,
                                          mean_surface_temp_c, stddev_surface_temp_c, sample_count)
            SELECT gen_random_uuid(), lat, lon,
                   $2 AS month,
                   $3 AS hour,
                   AVG(surface_temp_c),
                   STDDEV_SAMP(surface_temp_c),
                   COUNT(*)
            FROM hrrr_profiles
            WHERE surface_temp_c IS NOT NULL
              AND is_grid_point = true
              AND EXTRACT(MONTH FROM valid_time)::int = $2
              AND EXTRACT(HOUR FROM valid_time)::int = $3
            GROUP BY lat, lon
            HAVING COUNT(*) >= $1
            ON CONFLICT (lat, lon, month, hour)
            DO UPDATE SET
              mean_surface_temp_c = EXCLUDED.mean_surface_temp_c,
              stddev_surface_temp_c = EXCLUDED.stddev_surface_temp_c,
              sample_count = EXCLUDED.sample_count
            """,
            [min_samples, month, hour],
            timeout: 300_000
          )

        IO.puts("  [#{idx}/#{length(combos)}] month=#{month} hour=#{hour}: #{count} rows")
        acc + count
      end)

    IO.puts("Upserted #{total} climatology records total.")
  end

  @doc """
  Enqueue native HRRR backfill jobs for the top-N hours by contact count.
  """
  def native_backfill(limit \\ 500) do
    start_app()

    alias Microwaveprop.Repo

    %{rows: rows} =
      Repo.query!(
        """
        SELECT EXTRACT(YEAR FROM qso_timestamp)::int AS year,
               EXTRACT(MONTH FROM qso_timestamp)::int AS month,
               EXTRACT(DAY FROM qso_timestamp)::int AS day,
               EXTRACT(HOUR FROM qso_timestamp)::int AS hour,
               COUNT(*) AS cnt
        FROM contacts
        WHERE pos1 IS NOT NULL
          AND qso_timestamp >= '2019-01-01'
        GROUP BY 1, 2, 3, 4
        ORDER BY cnt DESC
        LIMIT $1
        """,
        [limit],
        timeout: 60_000
      )

    IO.puts("Enqueuing #{length(rows)} native backfill jobs...")

    for [year, month, day, hour, cnt] <- rows do
      args = %{year: year, month: month, day: day, hour: hour}

      case Oban.insert(
             Microwaveprop.Workers.HrrrNativeGridWorker.new(args, unique: [period: :infinity])
           ) do
        {:ok, _} -> IO.puts("  #{year}-#{month}-#{day} #{hour}Z (#{cnt} contacts)")
        {:error, _} -> IO.puts("  #{year}-#{month}-#{day} #{hour}Z (skipped, already enqueued)")
      end
    end

    IO.puts("Done.")
  end

  @doc """
  Compute derived fields (inversion, Ri, ducts) on native profiles that lack them.
  """
  def native_derive(limit \\ 10_000) do
    start_app()

    import Ecto.Query

    alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.Duct
    alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.Inversion
    alias Microwaveprop.Repo
    alias Microwaveprop.Weather.HrrrNativeProfile
    alias Microwaveprop.Weather.ThetaE

    profiles =
      HrrrNativeProfile
      |> where([p], is_nil(p.bulk_richardson) and p.level_count > 2)
      |> limit(^limit)
      |> Repo.all()

    IO.puts("Deriving fields for #{length(profiles)} profiles...")

    count =
      Enum.count(profiles, fn profile ->
        p = %{
          heights_m: profile.heights_m,
          temp_k: profile.temp_k,
          spfh: profile.spfh,
          pressure_pa: profile.pressure_pa,
          u_wind_ms: profile.u_wind_ms,
          v_wind_ms: profile.v_wind_ms,
          tke_m2s2: profile.tke_m2s2,
          level_count: profile.level_count
        }

        inversion_fields =
          case Inversion.find_inversion_top(p) do
            {:ok, %{height_m: top_h, level_idx: top_idx, base_idx: base_idx}} ->
              ri = Inversion.bulk_richardson(p, base_idx, top_idx)
              shear = Inversion.shear_magnitude(p, base_idx, top_idx)
              theta_e_jump = ThetaE.theta_e_jump(p, base_idx, top_idx)

              [
                inversion_top_m: top_h,
                bulk_richardson: ri,
                shear_at_top_ms: shear,
                theta_e_jump_k: theta_e_jump
              ]

            :none ->
              [
                inversion_top_m: nil,
                bulk_richardson: nil,
                shear_at_top_ms: nil,
                theta_e_jump_k: nil
              ]
          end

        duct_result = Duct.analyze(p)
        duct_fields = [ducts: duct_result.ducts, best_duct_band_ghz: duct_result.best_duct_band_ghz]
        fields = inversion_fields ++ duct_fields

        {1, _} =
          HrrrNativeProfile
          |> where([pr], pr.id == ^profile.id)
          |> Repo.update_all(set: fields)

        true
      end)

    IO.puts("Updated #{count} profiles with derived fields.")
  end

  defp repos do
    Application.fetch_env!(@app, :ecto_repos)
  end

  defp load_app do
    Application.ensure_all_started(:ssl)
    Application.ensure_loaded(@app)
  end

  defp start_app do
    Application.ensure_all_started(@app)
    Oban.pause_all_queues(Oban)
  end
end