Graham McIntire
e7a7ae073d
Task 9.3 - Weight recalibration via gradient descent:
- Recalibrator module fits logistic regression weights using Nx
- Trains on QSO positives vs random baseline negatives
- Cross-validates by month, normalizes weights to sum to 1.0
- Mix task: mix recalibrate_scorer --sample 5000 --epochs 2000
Task 9.4 - Side-by-side scorer comparison:
- ScorerDiff.compare/3 re-scores grid with old vs new weights
- Reports mean diff, regressions, improvements, per-band breakdown
- Mix task: mix scorer_diff --new-weights '{...}'
Phase 3 - NEXRAD ingestion pipeline:
- NexradClient fetches IEM n0q composite PNGs, extracts per-point
box statistics (mean/max dBZ, texture variance)
- NexradObservation schema with unique (lat, lon, observed_at)
- NexradWorker on :nexrad queue for background processing
- nexrad_texture backtest feature in Features module
- mix nexrad_backfill --limit 200
All tasks added to AdminTaskWorker and Release for production use.
1116 tests, 0 failures.
94 lines
2.8 KiB
Elixir
94 lines
2.8 KiB
Elixir
defmodule Mix.Tasks.ScorerDiff do
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@shortdoc "Compare two weight sets on recent propagation scores"
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@moduledoc """
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Loads the most recent HRRR frame's propagation scores and compares
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the current weights against a new set, printing a markdown diff report.
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## Usage
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mix scorer_diff --new-weights '{"humidity":0.18,"time_of_day":0.20,"td_depression":0.10,"refractivity":0.08,"sky":0.08,"season":0.08,"wind":0.05,"rain":0.08,"pressure":0.05,"pwat":0.10}'
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## Options
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* `--new-weights` — JSON string of new weights (required)
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* `--out` — optional file path to write the report
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"""
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use Mix.Task
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alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.BandConfig
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alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.ScorerDiff
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@impl Mix.Task
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def run(argv) do
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Mix.Task.run("app.start")
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Oban.pause_all_queues(Oban)
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{opts, _, _} =
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OptionParser.parse(argv,
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switches: [new_weights: :string, out: :string]
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)
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new_weights_json = Keyword.fetch!(opts, :new_weights)
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out_path = Keyword.get(opts, :out)
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new_weights = Jason.decode!(new_weights_json)
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validate_weights!(new_weights)
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old_weights = stringify_weights(BandConfig.weights())
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Mix.shell().info("Comparing current weights vs new weights...")
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Mix.shell().info("Old: #{inspect(old_weights)}")
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Mix.shell().info("New: #{inspect(new_weights)}")
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Mix.shell().info("")
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result = ScorerDiff.compare(old_weights, new_weights)
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markdown = ScorerDiff.to_markdown(result)
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IO.puts(markdown)
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if out_path do
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File.mkdir_p!(Path.dirname(out_path))
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File.write!(out_path, markdown)
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Mix.shell().info("Wrote report to #{out_path}")
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end
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end
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defp stringify_weights(weights) do
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Map.new(weights, fn {k, v} -> {to_string(k), v} end)
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end
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defp validate_weights!(weights) do
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validate_weight_keys!(weights)
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validate_weight_sum!(weights)
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end
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defp validate_weight_keys!(weights) do
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expected_keys =
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MapSet.new(~w(humidity time_of_day td_depression refractivity sky season wind rain pressure pwat))
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provided_keys = MapSet.new(Map.keys(weights))
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missing = MapSet.difference(expected_keys, provided_keys)
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extra = MapSet.difference(provided_keys, expected_keys)
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errors =
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[]
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|> prepend_if(MapSet.size(missing) > 0, "Missing: #{inspect(MapSet.to_list(missing))}")
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|> prepend_if(MapSet.size(extra) > 0, "Extra: #{inspect(MapSet.to_list(extra))}")
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if errors != [] do
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Mix.raise("Invalid weight keys. " <> Enum.join(errors, " "))
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end
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end
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defp validate_weight_sum!(weights) do
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sum = weights |> Map.values() |> Enum.sum() |> Float.round(4)
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if !(sum >= 0.99 and sum <= 1.01) do
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Mix.raise("Weights must sum to ~1.0, got #{sum}")
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end
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end
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defp prepend_if(list, true, item), do: list ++ [item]
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defp prepend_if(list, false, _item), do: list
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end
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