Graham McIntire
2fd88a94ea
Phase A — 7 pipeline bugs:
- retain_scores_window: fix timeline self-deletion (NOTIFY payload run_time|valid_time)
- Rust/Elixir weight divergence: Rust loads band_weights.json at startup
- Aurora boost ported to Rust (Kp query + per-cell boost for bands <= 432 MHz)
- Commercial-link boost applied in Rust per-cell scoring
- f00 native gradient preferred over pressure-level gradient
- HRDPS files: greedy regex fixed, now visible to timeline/prune/retain
- GEFS/HRRR collision: GEFS namespace as .gefs.prop, merge at read
Phase B — Validation harness:
- scripts/validate_algo.py: out-of-sample Spearman rho(score,distance) + baselines
- docs/algo-reports/validation-2026-08-01.{json,md}
Phase C — Forecast-skill evaluation:
- scripts/validate_forecast.py: skill degradation by lead time (0h-24h)
- docs/algo-reports/forecast-2026-08-01.{json,md}
Phase D — Calibration + model improvements:
- recalibrate.py: validation gate before weight deploy
- Recalibrator: Nx.max(0.0) replaces Nx.abs(), L2 regularization, val-set integrity
- ML train/serve defaults unified; prop_compare null-handling skew fixed
- Latitude-aware sunrise: solar-declination sunrise_hour(lat,month) (Elixir + Rust)
- Path scoring: wind/sky/rain from HRRR (was ~30% of composite weight silent)
- Region multiplier documented as unvalidated; PWAT/refractivity doc-vs-code noted
- algo.md: synced scoring sections, marked retired features, D5/D6 changelog
- Credo: path_compute cyclomatic complexity bumped (6->10 fields) — informational only
59 lines
1.1 KiB
JSON
59 lines
1.1 KiB
JSON
{
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"generated_at": "2026-08-01T22:03:32+00:00",
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"generated_by": "scripts/validate_forecast.py",
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"schema_version": 1,
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"summary": {
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"total_contacts": 59203,
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"contacts_with_all_profiles": 12929,
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"lead_times_hours": [
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0,
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1,
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3,
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6,
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12,
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24
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],
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"bands_evaluated": 3
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},
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"per_band": {
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"10000": {
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"n": 11825,
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"rhos": {
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"0": -0.0033,
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"1": -0.0007,
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"3": 0.0201,
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"6": -0.0189,
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"12": -0.0128,
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"24": 0.0021
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},
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"delta_6h": 0.0156,
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"delta_24h": -0.0054
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},
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"24000": {
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"n": 971,
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"rhos": {
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"0": 0.314,
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"1": 0.3166,
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"3": 0.3227,
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"6": 0.3761,
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"12": 0.3629,
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"24": 0.2531
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},
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"delta_6h": -0.0622,
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"delta_24h": 0.0609
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},
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"47000": {
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"n": 108,
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"rhos": {
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"0": 0.1438,
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"1": 0.1373,
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"3": 0.1644,
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"6": 0.2084,
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"12": 0.0689,
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"24": 0.142
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},
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"delta_6h": -0.0646,
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"delta_24h": 0.0018
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}
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}
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}
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