prop/lib/microwaveprop/weather/hrrr_native_client.ex
Graham McIntire e7f0f03bf0 Fix wgrib2 -lola binary parsing and add native_surface_refractivity
wgrib2 -lola ... bin writes Fortran unformatted records (4-byte
length header + data + 4-byte length trailer per message).
parse_lola_binary was treating the binary as tightly packed,
causing every message after the first to read from the wrong
offset — values came out as garbage across all grid points.

Fix: account for the 8-byte record overhead per message when
computing the data offset for each message's grid values.

This bug affects both the existing propagation grid extraction
(which may have been producing subtly wrong scores) and the new
native-level extraction (which was producing obviously wrong
values). The fix is a one-line stride change.

Also adds Backtest.Features.native_surface_refractivity for the
Phase 1 sanity check, plus a tighter wgrib2 match pattern that
selects only hybrid-level messages from the native file.
2026-04-10 08:13:33 -05:00

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Elixir
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defmodule Microwaveprop.Weather.HrrrNativeClient do
@moduledoc """
Fetches HRRR native hybrid-sigma profiles from the AWS HRRR bucket.
This is the companion to `HrrrClient`, which works against the
surface and 25 hPa pressure-level products. The native file
(`wrfnatf00.grib2`) carries all variables on the 50 hybrid-sigma
levels native to the HRRR model grid. Vertical spacing near the
surface is ~10-50 m instead of the ~250 m the pressure-level
product gives us — crucial for resolving the ducts and
boundary-layer inversions discussed in
`docs/plans/2026-04-09-propagation-modeling-improvements.md`.
## Design: batch, not per-point
Each native-level HRRR file is ~566 MB. Essential variables (TMP,
SPFH, HGT, UGRD, VGRD, TKE, PRES on all 50 hybrid levels) span
~530 MB of that file. Per-point on-demand fetching is not viable.
Instead, the worker fetches the file once per `(date, hour)`,
extracts native profiles for every point of interest in one pass,
and bulk-inserts them.
See `docs/research/hrrr_native_levels.md` for the full analysis.
"""
alias Microwaveprop.Weather.HrrrClient
@native_levels 1..50
@native_variables ~w(TMP SPFH HGT UGRD VGRD TKE PRES)
@hrrr_base_default "https://noaa-hrrr-bdp-pds.s3.amazonaws.com"
defp hrrr_base, do: Application.get_env(:microwaveprop, :hrrr_base_url, @hrrr_base_default)
@doc "Number of native hybrid-sigma levels in HRRR (currently 50)."
def native_level_count, do: Enum.count(@native_levels)
@doc "The seven essential variables we extract on every native level."
def native_variables, do: @native_variables
@doc """
The list of `%{var:, level:}` messages we extract from every native
file. 7 vars × 50 levels = 350 messages, matching the spike in
Task 1.1.
"""
def native_messages do
for level <- @native_levels, var <- @native_variables do
%{var: var, level: "#{level} hybrid level"}
end
end
@doc """
Builds the AWS S3 URL for a native-level HRRR grib2 file.
## Examples
iex> Microwaveprop.Weather.HrrrNativeClient.hrrr_native_url(~D[2026-04-09], 12)
"https://noaa-hrrr-bdp-pds.s3.amazonaws.com/hrrr.20260409/conus/hrrr.t12z.wrfnatf00.grib2"
"""
def hrrr_native_url(date, hour, forecast_hour \\ 0) do
date_str = Calendar.strftime(date, "%Y%m%d")
hour_str = hour |> Integer.to_string() |> String.pad_leading(2, "0")
fh_str = forecast_hour |> Integer.to_string() |> String.pad_leading(2, "0")
"#{hrrr_base()}/hrrr.#{date_str}/conus/hrrr.t#{hour_str}z.wrfnatf#{fh_str}.grib2"
end
@doc """
Converts a parsed `%{"VAR:level" => value}` map into a
`HrrrNativeProfile`-shaped map with level arrays sorted by ascending
hybrid level (level 1 = surface).
This is the pure-function bit of the pipeline: the network/GRIB2
decoding lives elsewhere and just feeds `parsed` in. Isolating this
lets us unit-test every invariant we care about (array lengths,
ordering, surface scalar caching) without touching the network.
"""
def build_native_profile(parsed) when is_map(parsed) do
levels =
Enum.map(@native_levels, fn level ->
level_str = "#{level} hybrid level"
%{
level: level,
hgt: parsed["HGT:#{level_str}"],
tmp: parsed["TMP:#{level_str}"],
spfh: parsed["SPFH:#{level_str}"],
pres: parsed["PRES:#{level_str}"],
ugrd: parsed["UGRD:#{level_str}"],
vgrd: parsed["VGRD:#{level_str}"],
tke: parsed["TKE:#{level_str}"]
}
end)
|> Enum.reject(fn %{hgt: hgt, tmp: tmp} -> is_nil(hgt) or is_nil(tmp) end)
|> Enum.sort_by(& &1.hgt)
level_count = length(levels)
%{
level_count: level_count,
heights_m: Enum.map(levels, & &1.hgt),
temp_k: Enum.map(levels, & &1.tmp),
spfh: Enum.map(levels, & &1.spfh),
pressure_pa: Enum.map(levels, & &1.pres),
u_wind_ms: Enum.map(levels, & &1.ugrd),
v_wind_ms: Enum.map(levels, & &1.vgrd),
tke_m2s2: Enum.map(levels, & &1.tke),
surface_temp_k: parsed["TMP:surface"] || List.first(levels) |> safe_get(:tmp),
surface_spfh: parsed["SPFH:2 m above ground"] || List.first(levels) |> safe_get(:spfh),
surface_pressure_pa: parsed["PRES:surface"] || List.first(levels) |> safe_get(:pres)
}
end
defp safe_get(nil, _key), do: nil
defp safe_get(map, key), do: Map.get(map, key)
@doc """
Returns the list of byte ranges to download for the essentials in
one native HRRR file. Used by the (still-to-be-built) grid worker.
Wraps `HrrrClient.byte_ranges_for_messages/2` with our native
message list so callers don't have to know both.
"""
def essential_byte_ranges(idx_entries) do
HrrrClient.byte_ranges_for_messages(idx_entries, native_messages())
end
@doc """
Extract native profiles for a list of `{lat, lon}` points from a
GRIB2 binary, using wgrib2 for speed.
Under the hood this uses `-lola` on a bounding-box subgrid that
covers all the requested points, then does nearest-neighbor lookup
per point. Falls back to the pure-Elixir decoder if wgrib2 is not
available (expect ~70s per point in that case).
Returns `%{{lat, lon} => native_profile_map}` where each profile
map has the shape expected by `HrrrNativeProfile.changeset/2`.
"""
def extract_native_profiles(grib_binary, points) when is_list(points) do
alias Microwaveprop.Weather.Grib2.Wgrib2
# Match only hybrid-level messages — the simple var-name pattern
# also hits surface/2m/10m messages which misalign the binary output.
match_pattern = ":(#{Enum.join(@native_variables, "|")}):.*hybrid level:"
if Wgrib2.available?() do
grid_spec = bounding_grid(points)
case Wgrib2.extract_grid(grib_binary, match_pattern, grid_spec) do
{:ok, grid_data} ->
# Nearest-neighbor lookup: for each requested point, find
# the grid cell with the smallest (lat, lon) distance.
result =
Map.new(points, fn {lat, lon} ->
nearest = nearest_grid_cell(grid_data, lat, lon)
profile = if nearest, do: build_native_profile(nearest), else: %{level_count: 0}
{{lat, lon}, profile}
end)
{:ok, result}
error ->
error
end
else
# Fallback: pure Elixir (slow)
alias Microwaveprop.Weather.Grib2.Extractor
case Extractor.extract_grid(grib_binary, points) do
{:ok, grid_data} ->
result = Map.new(grid_data, fn {pt, parsed} -> {pt, build_native_profile(parsed)} end)
{:ok, result}
error ->
error
end
end
end
# Build a -lola grid spec that covers all points with 0.03° padding.
@grid_step 0.03
defp bounding_grid(points) do
lats = Enum.map(points, &elem(&1, 0))
lons = Enum.map(points, &elem(&1, 1))
lat_min = Enum.min(lats) - 0.1
lat_max = Enum.max(lats) + 0.1
lon_min = Enum.min(lons) - 0.1
lon_max = Enum.max(lons) + 0.1
lon_count = max(trunc(Float.ceil((lon_max - lon_min) / @grid_step)), 2)
lat_count = max(trunc(Float.ceil((lat_max - lat_min) / @grid_step)), 2)
%{
lon_start: lon_min,
lon_count: lon_count,
lon_step: @grid_step,
lat_start: lat_min,
lat_count: lat_count,
lat_step: @grid_step
}
end
defp nearest_grid_cell(grid_data, lat, lon) do
grid_data
|> Enum.min_by(fn {{glat, glon}, _} ->
:math.pow(glat - lat, 2) + :math.pow(glon - lon, 2)
end, fn -> nil end)
|> case do
nil -> nil
{_point, parsed} -> parsed
end
end
end