prop/lib/microwaveprop/workers/propagation_grid_worker.ex
Graham McIntire 86364f43aa
Wire NEXRAD, native ducts, and commercial links into scoring
Three signal sources we already collect but weren't using:

* NEXRAD composite reflectivity → rain rate via Marshall-Palmer, taken
  as max of HRRR-derived and NEXRAD-derived rate so fast convective
  cells between HRRR hourly analyses can still trigger the rain penalty.
  Only active on f00 — forecast hours can't see future radar. New
  Scorer.dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr/1 with 5 dBZ noise floor and 150 mm/hr
  hail-safe ceiling.

* hrrr_native_profiles.best_duct_band_ghz → Scorer.score_refractivity/4
  applies a 1.15× boost when the cell's native-resolution duct supports
  the target band's frequency. HRRR pressure-level gradients
  systematically under-read thin trapping layers the native profile can
  resolve. Sub-band ducts do NOT boost — they're evidence that the
  gradient we have is all there is at the target frequency.

* Commercial LOS link rx_power fading → inverse tropo sensor.
  Commercial.link_degradation_at/3 computes the average 7-day-baseline
  vs current delta across enabled links within 75 km, ignoring links
  where link_state != 1. Scorer.commercial_link_boost/2 adds +2 to +25
  to the composite score for 3+ dB of fading. ~150 km radius around
  DFW is the only zone this helps today, but it's the first *measured*
  signal in the algorithm vs the model-derived proxies.

Also fix a latent test bug exposed by the earlier ERA5 poll-timeout
bump: era5_batch_client_test's "uncached path returns error" tests
hung for up to an hour when run with direnv's real CDS key. New
describe-level setup explicitly unsets the env var so the tests stay
hermetic.

1,359 tests, 0 failures.
2026-04-13 12:08:15 -05:00

321 lines
11 KiB
Elixir
Raw Blame History

This file contains ambiguous Unicode characters

This file contains Unicode characters that might be confused with other characters. If you think that this is intentional, you can safely ignore this warning. Use the Escape button to reveal them.

defmodule Microwaveprop.Workers.PropagationGridWorker do
@moduledoc """
Hourly Oban worker that downloads HRRR data (analysis + forecast hours)
and computes propagation scores across the CONUS grid for all bands.
Fetches f00-f18 to provide 18-hour forecast timeline.
"""
# `unique.period` matches the 3-hour cron so a retrying job can't be
# duplicated by the next cron firing.
use Oban.Worker,
queue: :propagation,
max_attempts: 3,
unique: [period: 10_800, states: [:available, :scheduled, :executing, :retryable]]
alias Microwaveprop.Commercial
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.BandConfig
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.Grid
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.ScoreCache
alias Microwaveprop.Weather
alias Microwaveprop.Weather.GridCache
alias Microwaveprop.Weather.HrrrClient
alias Microwaveprop.Weather.HrrrNativeClient
alias Microwaveprop.Weather.NexradClient
alias Microwaveprop.Weather.SoundingParams
require Logger
# Hard ceiling per run. A healthy run is ~60 min (19 forecast hours × ~3 min
# each). 90 min gives 1.5× headroom and is under the 3-hour cron cadence, so
# a stuck wgrib2/HTTP call can't block the queue indefinitely. Oban kills
# the executing process on timeout, which closes linked ports and cascades
# SIGKILL to any child wgrib2 subprocess.
@run_timeout_ms 90 * 60 * 1000
@impl Oban.Worker
def timeout(_job), do: @run_timeout_ms
@max_forecast_hour 18
@impl Oban.Worker
def perform(%Oban.Job{}) do
t_start = System.monotonic_time(:millisecond)
# HRRR takes ~45min to publish after the hour. Use 2 hours ago to ensure availability.
two_hours_ago = DateTime.add(DateTime.utc_now(), -2, :hour)
run_time = two_hours_ago |> HrrrClient.nearest_hrrr_hour() |> DateTime.truncate(:second)
points = Grid.conus_points()
Logger.info("PropagationGrid: run_time=#{run_time}, #{length(points)} points, f00-f#{@max_forecast_hour}")
for_result =
for fh <- 0..@max_forecast_hour do
valid_time = DateTime.add(run_time, fh * 3600, :second)
result = process_forecast_hour(points, run_time, fh, valid_time)
# Reclaim grid_data/profiles from this forecast hour before starting the next
:erlang.garbage_collect()
case result do
:ok -> valid_time
_ -> nil
end
end
valid_times = Enum.reject(for_result, &is_nil/1)
if valid_times != [] do
Phoenix.PubSub.broadcast(
Microwaveprop.PubSub,
"propagation:updated",
{:propagation_updated, valid_times}
)
end
total_ms = System.monotonic_time(:millisecond) - t_start
Logger.info("PropagationGrid: total time #{format_duration(total_ms)} (#{length(valid_times)} forecast hours)")
Weather.prune_old_grid_profiles()
Propagation.prune_old_scores()
:ok
end
defp process_forecast_hour(points, run_time, forecast_hour, valid_time) do
label = "f#{String.pad_leading(Integer.to_string(forecast_hour), 2, "0")}"
case timed(label, fn ->
HrrrClient.fetch_grid(points, run_time, forecast_hour: forecast_hour)
end) do
{:ok, grid_data} ->
store_hrrr_profiles(grid_data, valid_time)
:erlang.garbage_collect()
# Fetch native duct metrics and merge into grid_data for scoring
grid_data = merge_native_duct_data(grid_data, run_time, forecast_hour)
:erlang.garbage_collect()
# NEXRAD current-hour composite reflectivity catches fast-moving
# convective cells between HRRR hourly analyses. Only useful for
# f00 — forecast hours can't see the future radar image.
grid_data =
if forecast_hour == 0 do
merge_nexrad_data(grid_data, valid_time)
else
grid_data
end
# Commercial-link inverse sensor — only meaningful for f00 because
# the measurement is of the current atmospheric state, not a forecast.
grid_data =
if forecast_hour == 0 do
merge_commercial_link_data(grid_data, valid_time)
else
grid_data
end
:erlang.garbage_collect()
# Build weather cache rows from in-memory grid_data — avoids the ~20s
# JSONB round trip that was crashing the worker before f01f18 could run.
rows = Weather.build_grid_cache_rows(grid_data, valid_time)
GridCache.broadcast_put(valid_time, rows)
Phoenix.PubSub.broadcast(
Microwaveprop.PubSub,
"weather:updated",
{:weather_updated, valid_time}
)
scores = compute_scores(grid_data, valid_time)
case Propagation.upsert_scores(scores, prune: false) do
{:ok, count} ->
Logger.info("PropagationGrid: #{label}#{count} scores for #{valid_time}")
warm_cache(valid_time)
:ok
error ->
Logger.error("PropagationGrid: #{label} upsert failed: #{inspect(error)}")
error
end
error ->
Logger.warning("PropagationGrid: #{label} fetch failed: #{inspect(error)}")
error
end
end
defp warm_cache(valid_time) do
Enum.each(BandConfig.all_bands(), fn band ->
Propagation.warm_cache_and_broadcast(band.freq_mhz, valid_time)
end)
ScoreCache.prune_older_than(DateTime.add(DateTime.utc_now(), -2, :hour))
end
defp timed(label, fun) do
t0 = System.monotonic_time(:millisecond)
result = fun.()
elapsed = System.monotonic_time(:millisecond) - t0
Logger.info("PropagationGrid: #{label} took #{format_duration(elapsed)}")
result
end
defp format_duration(ms) when ms < 1000, do: "#{ms}ms"
defp format_duration(ms), do: "#{Float.round(ms / 1000, 1)}s"
defp store_hrrr_profiles(grid_data, valid_time) do
count =
grid_data
|> Stream.flat_map(fn {{lat, lon}, profile} ->
build_profile_attrs_for_grid(lat, lon, valid_time, profile)
end)
|> Stream.chunk_every(500)
|> Enum.reduce(0, fn chunk, acc ->
Weather.upsert_hrrr_profiles_batch(chunk)
acc + length(chunk)
end)
Logger.info("PropagationGrid: stored #{count} HRRR profiles")
end
defp build_profile_attrs_for_grid(lat, lon, valid_time, profile) do
temp = profile.surface_temp_c
if temp && temp > -80 && temp < 60 do
params =
if is_list(profile.profile) and length(profile.profile) >= 3,
do: SoundingParams.derive(profile.profile)
attrs = %{
valid_time: valid_time,
lat: lat,
lon: lon,
run_time: profile.run_time,
profile: profile.profile || [],
hpbl_m: profile.hpbl_m,
pwat_mm: profile.pwat_mm,
surface_temp_c: profile.surface_temp_c,
surface_dewpoint_c: profile.surface_dewpoint_c,
surface_pressure_mb: profile.surface_pressure_mb
}
attrs =
if params do
Map.merge(attrs, %{
surface_refractivity: params.surface_refractivity,
min_refractivity_gradient: params.min_refractivity_gradient,
ducting_detected: params.ducting_detected,
duct_characteristics: params.duct_characteristics
})
else
attrs
end
[attrs]
else
[]
end
end
defp merge_native_duct_data(grid_data, run_time, forecast_hour) do
hour_dt = HrrrClient.nearest_hrrr_hour(run_time)
date = DateTime.to_date(hour_dt)
hour = hour_dt.hour
grid_spec = Grid.wgrib2_grid_spec()
case timed("native", fn ->
HrrrNativeClient.fetch_native_duct_grid(date, hour, grid_spec, forecast_hour)
end) do
{:ok, duct_grid} ->
Logger.info("PropagationGrid: merged #{map_size(duct_grid)} native duct cells")
apply_duct_grid(grid_data, duct_grid)
{:error, reason} ->
Logger.warning("PropagationGrid: native duct fetch failed (continuing without): #{inspect(reason)}")
grid_data
end
end
defp apply_duct_grid(grid_data, duct_grid) do
Map.new(grid_data, fn {point, profile} ->
case Map.get(duct_grid, point) do
nil -> {point, profile}
duct -> {point, Map.merge(profile, duct)}
end
end)
end
defp merge_commercial_link_data(grid_data, valid_time) do
# Compute link degradation once per distinct link cluster and cache by
# point. Commercial links only cluster around DFW so most grid points see
# nil — cheap no-op path dominates.
boosted =
Enum.count(grid_data, fn {{lat, lon}, _profile} ->
degradation = Commercial.link_degradation_at({lat, lon}, valid_time)
not is_nil(degradation)
end)
if boosted > 0 do
Logger.info("PropagationGrid: commercial-link degradation available for #{boosted} grid cells")
end
Map.new(grid_data, fn {{lat, lon} = point, profile} ->
case Commercial.link_degradation_at({lat, lon}, valid_time) do
nil -> {point, profile}
degradation -> {point, Map.put(profile, :commercial_link_degradation, degradation)}
end
end)
end
defp merge_nexrad_data(grid_data, valid_time) do
points = Map.keys(grid_data)
case timed("nexrad", fn -> NexradClient.fetch_frame(valid_time, points) end) do
{:ok, observations} ->
apply_nexrad_observations(grid_data, observations)
{:error, reason} ->
Logger.warning("PropagationGrid: NEXRAD fetch failed (continuing without): #{inspect(reason)}")
grid_data
end
end
defp apply_nexrad_observations(grid_data, observations) do
index = Map.new(observations, fn obs -> {{obs.lat, obs.lon}, obs.max_reflectivity_dbz} end)
non_zero = Enum.count(index, fn {_pt, dbz} -> dbz > 0 end)
Logger.info("PropagationGrid: NEXRAD merged (#{non_zero} cells with precip)")
Map.new(grid_data, fn {point, profile} ->
case Map.get(index, point) do
nil -> {point, profile}
dbz -> {point, Map.put(profile, :nexrad_max_reflectivity_dbz, dbz)}
end
end)
end
defp compute_scores(grid_data, valid_time) do
# Algorithm is the primary scorer. ML score stored in factors for comparison.
compute_scores_algorithm(grid_data, valid_time)
end
defp compute_scores_algorithm(grid_data, valid_time) do
grid_data
|> Task.async_stream(
fn {{lat, lon}, profile} ->
band_scores = Propagation.score_grid_point(profile, valid_time, lat, lon)
Enum.map(band_scores, fn r ->
%{lat: lat, lon: lon, valid_time: valid_time, band_mhz: r.band_mhz, score: r.score, factors: r.factors}
end)
end,
max_concurrency: System.schedulers_online() * 2,
timeout: 30_000
)
|> Stream.flat_map(fn
{:ok, results} -> results
{:exit, _reason} -> []
end)
end
end