prop/lib/microwaveprop/propagation.ex
Graham McIntire e688d8c244
perf(wire)+ts: pack scores as flat tuples, bump ProfilesFile gzip, tighten TS types
**Wire format — /map scores payload.** Every `update_scores` /
`preload_forecast` / `data-scores` embed previously shipped each
point as `{"lat":X,"lon":Y,"score":Z}`. At 95k cells in full CONUS
that's ~36 bytes/point × 95k = 3.4 MB of JSON, ~50% of it repeating
the three key names. Packing as `[lat, lon, score]` tuples drops
per-point overhead to ~19 bytes → ~1.8 MB on the wire, ~45% smaller.
New `Propagation.pack_scores/1` is used at every push_event +
initial_scores_json boundary; internal Elixir still uses the
`%{lat, lon, score}` map so no other callers change.

JS hook: `ScorePoint` becomes `[number, number, number]`, the
`renderScores` loop destructures to positional args. Regression
test in map_live_test updated to match the new shape.

**ProfilesFile compression.** Rust writer was at gzip level 6
(default). Files are write-once-per-forecast-hour but read by
every pod mount + point_detail click. Bumped to level 9 (best):
~30% slower encode (hidden by spawn_blocking — not on user path),
~5–10% smaller on semi-structured MessagePack bodies. No reader
changes needed — same gzip stream.

**TypeScript strictness.**
- `app.ts`: replace `({detail}: any)` on phx:live_reload:attached
  with a CustomEvent<Reloader> shape naming only the API we touch.
- `weather_map_hook.ts`: drop the `(this as any)._map` pair by
  declaring a `GridLayerWithMap = L.GridLayer & { _map: L.Map }`
  intersection on the overlay's createTile `this` parameter.
- `global.d.ts`: replace `liveSocket: any` / `liveReloader: any`
  with focused LiveSocketLike / LiveReloaderLike shapes that name
  only the devtools-visible API.

No more `any` in the codebase (verified via rg).
2026-04-21 17:45:06 -05:00

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defmodule Microwaveprop.Propagation do
@moduledoc false
import Ecto.Query
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.BandConfig
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.Grid
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.ProfilesFile
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.RunTiming
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.ScoreCache
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.Scorer
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.ScoresFile
alias Microwaveprop.Repo
alias Microwaveprop.Weather.SoundingParams
require Logger
@ml_key :propagation_ml
@ml_module Microwaveprop.Propagation.Model
@doc """
Loads the ML model from disk, compiles the predict function, and caches both
in persistent_term. No-op if the model file doesn't exist or ML deps unavailable.
"""
@spec load_ml_model() :: :ok
def load_ml_model do
if Code.ensure_loaded?(@ml_module) do
case @ml_module.load() do
{:ok, params} ->
predict_fn = @ml_module.compile_predict()
:persistent_term.put(@ml_key, {predict_fn, params})
Logger.info("PropagationML: model loaded and compiled")
:ok
:error ->
Logger.info("PropagationML: no model file found, using algorithm scorer only")
:ok
end
else
Logger.info("PropagationML: ML dependencies not available")
:ok
end
end
@doc "Returns cached {predict_fn, params} tuple, or nil if not loaded."
@spec ml_model() :: {function(), term()} | nil
def ml_model do
:persistent_term.get(@ml_key, nil)
end
@doc """
Score a single grid point across all bands using HRRR profile data.
Uses ML model if loaded, falls back to algorithm scorer.
Returns a list of %{band_mhz, score, factors} maps.
"""
@spec score_grid_point(map(), DateTime.t(), float(), float()) ::
[%{band_mhz: non_neg_integer(), score: non_neg_integer(), factors: map()}]
def score_grid_point(hrrr_profile, valid_time, latitude, longitude) do
derived = derive_from_hrrr(hrrr_profile)
temp_c = hrrr_profile.surface_temp_c
dewpoint_c = hrrr_profile.surface_dewpoint_c
# Skip points with missing or physically impossible surface data
if is_nil(temp_c) or is_nil(dewpoint_c) or temp_c < -80 or temp_c > 60 or
dewpoint_c < -80 or dewpoint_c > 50 do
[]
else
score_grid_point_with_data(hrrr_profile, valid_time, temp_c, dewpoint_c, derived, latitude, longitude)
end
end
defp score_grid_point_with_data(hrrr_profile, valid_time, temp_c, dewpoint_c, derived, latitude, longitude) do
# Algorithm is the primary scorer — always used for the map score.
# ML score stored in factors as :ml_score for comparison/analysis.
score_with_algorithm(hrrr_profile, valid_time, temp_c, dewpoint_c, derived, latitude, longitude)
end
defp score_with_algorithm(hrrr_profile, valid_time, temp_c, dewpoint_c, derived, _latitude, longitude) do
temp_f = Scorer.c_to_f(temp_c)
dewpoint_f = Scorer.c_to_f(dewpoint_c)
conditions = %{
abs_humidity: Scorer.absolute_humidity(temp_c, dewpoint_c),
temp_f: temp_f,
dewpoint_f: dewpoint_f,
wind_speed_kts: Scorer.wind_speed_kts(hrrr_profile[:wind_u], hrrr_profile[:wind_v]),
sky_cover_pct: hrrr_profile[:cloud_cover_pct],
utc_hour: valid_time.hour,
utc_minute: valid_time.minute,
month: valid_time.month,
longitude: longitude,
pressure_mb: hrrr_profile.surface_pressure_mb,
prev_pressure_mb: nil,
rain_rate_mmhr: merged_rain_rate(hrrr_profile),
min_refractivity_gradient: hrrr_profile[:native_min_gradient] || derived[:min_refractivity_gradient],
bl_depth_m: hrrr_profile[:hpbl_m],
pwat_mm: hrrr_profile[:pwat_mm],
best_duct_band_ghz: hrrr_profile[:best_duct_freq_ghz] || hrrr_profile[:best_duct_band_ghz],
bulk_richardson: hrrr_profile[:bulk_richardson]
}
# Hoist the four band-invariant factors out of the 17-band inner
# loop. time_of_day / sky / wind / pressure depend on conditions
# alone, not the band — precomputing once per point drops ~30% of
# the scoring wall time on the hourly chain.
conditions = Map.merge(conditions, Scorer.precompute_band_invariants(conditions))
duct_info =
if hrrr_profile[:duct_count] && hrrr_profile[:duct_count] > 0 do
%{
duct_count: hrrr_profile[:duct_count],
best_duct_freq_ghz: hrrr_profile[:best_duct_freq_ghz],
max_duct_thickness_m: hrrr_profile[:max_duct_thickness_m],
ducts: hrrr_profile[:ducts] || []
}
end
link_degradation = hrrr_profile[:commercial_link_degradation]
Enum.map(BandConfig.all_bands(), fn band_config ->
result = Scorer.composite_score(conditions, band_config)
boosted_score =
if link_degradation do
Scorer.commercial_link_boost(result.score, link_degradation)
else
result.score
end
result =
result
|> Map.put(:score, boosted_score)
|> Map.put(:band_mhz, band_config.freq_mhz)
result =
if link_degradation do
put_in(result, [:factors, :commercial_link_degradation], link_degradation)
else
result
end
if duct_info, do: put_in(result, [:factors, :duct_info], duct_info), else: result
end)
end
# Pick the heavier of HRRR's hourly accumulation-derived rate and NEXRAD's
# reflectivity-derived rate. NEXRAD catches fast-moving convective cells that
# fall between HRRR hourly analyses; HRRR catches broad stratiform rain that
# NEXRAD reports as low dBZ. Taking max lets either source trigger the rain
# penalty without double-counting.
defp merged_rain_rate(hrrr_profile) do
hrrr_rate = Scorer.precip_to_rate_mmhr(hrrr_profile[:precip_mm])
nexrad_rate = Scorer.dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr(hrrr_profile[:nexrad_max_reflectivity_dbz])
max(hrrr_rate, nexrad_rate)
end
@doc """
Replace every propagation score for `valid_time` with `scores`.
Used by `PropagationGridWorker` on the hot path. Scores are written
as binary files on disk via `ScoresFile.write!/3`, one file per
band.
Consumes `scores` in a single streaming pass that folds each score
straight into a per-band accumulator. Previously this function ran
`Enum.to_list/1` followed by `Enum.group_by/2`, which held two full
copies of the ~460k-entry grid (list + grouped list) in memory at
once — the hot path's largest transient spike after native-duct
merge. The single-pass reduce keeps only one copy and buys back
~100 MB of headroom per forecast-hour step.
"""
@spec replace_scores(Enumerable.t(), DateTime.t()) :: {:ok, non_neg_integer()} | {:error, term()}
def replace_scores(scores, %DateTime{} = valid_time) do
do_replace_scores(scores, valid_time)
end
defp do_replace_scores(scores, valid_time) do
# Pure grouping phase runs outside the telemetry span — typically
# <10ms on small result sets, and the span's two dispatches
# (~100µs each) would otherwise dominate. The span now wraps only
# the per-band writes, which is where the actual DB cost lives.
{per_band, total} =
Enum.reduce(scores, {%{}, 0}, fn score, {acc, count} ->
{Map.update(acc, score.band_mhz, [score], &[score | &1]), count + 1}
end)
Microwaveprop.Instrument.span(
[:db, :replace_scores],
%{valid_time: valid_time},
fn ->
Enum.each(per_band, fn {band_mhz, band_scores} ->
try do
ScoresFile.write!(band_mhz, valid_time, band_scores)
rescue
e ->
Logger.warning("Propagation: ScoresFile write failed for band=#{band_mhz} vt=#{valid_time}: #{inspect(e)}")
end
end)
{:ok, total}
end
)
end
@doc """
Remove score files with valid_times older than 3 hours. Called on
a cron by `Microwaveprop.Workers.PropagationPruneWorker`.
The cutoff sits one hour beyond HRRR's ~2h publish lag: the hourly
seeder picks `run_time = now - 2h`, so the f00 analysis file is
written at valid_time = now - 2h. A 2h cutoff deletes it within
minutes; a 3h cutoff keeps it alive until the next hourly run
supersedes it.
"""
@spec prune_old_scores() :: :ok
def prune_old_scores do
cutoff = DateTime.add(DateTime.utc_now(), -3, :hour)
file_deleted = ScoresFile.prune_older_than(cutoff)
profiles_deleted = ProfilesFile.prune_older_than(cutoff)
if file_deleted + profiles_deleted > 0 do
Logger.info(
"PropagationScores: pruned #{file_deleted} old score files + " <>
"#{profiles_deleted} profile files (before #{cutoff})"
)
end
:ok
end
@doc """
Returns distinct valid_times for a band, ordered ascending. Always
reads from the on-disk `ScoresFile` store — the `ScoreCache` only
holds whatever hours have been fetched or broadcast, which can be a
partial view of what's actually on disk, so using it as the source
of truth for the timeline makes new forecast hours invisible until
the cache happens to catch up. Filters out times more than 1 hour in
the past, but always includes the most recent valid_time so there's
always data to display.
"""
# HRRR forecast horizon: f00..f18 covers the next 18 hours from cycle
# time. Anything beyond that in the score store is a leftover from a
# stale cycle and clutters the timeline without adding information.
@hrrr_forecast_horizon_hours 18
@spec available_valid_times(non_neg_integer()) :: [DateTime.t()]
def available_valid_times(band_mhz) do
now = DateTime.utc_now()
past_cutoff = DateTime.add(now, -3600, :second)
future_cutoff = DateTime.add(now, @hrrr_forecast_horizon_hours * 3600, :second)
case ScoresFile.list_valid_times(band_mhz) do
[] -> []
times -> filter_or_latest(times, past_cutoff, future_cutoff)
end
end
defp filter_or_latest(times, past_cutoff, future_cutoff) do
fresh =
Enum.filter(times, fn t ->
DateTime.compare(t, past_cutoff) != :lt and DateTime.compare(t, future_cutoff) != :gt
end)
if fresh == [] do
[Enum.max(times, DateTime)]
else
fresh
end
end
@doc """
Get scores for a band at a specific valid_time, optionally within a bounding box.
If valid_time is nil, uses the earliest available (current analysis hour).
Excludes factors for performance.
"""
@spec scores_at(non_neg_integer(), DateTime.t() | nil, %{optional(String.t()) => float()} | nil) ::
[%{lat: float(), lon: float(), score: non_neg_integer(), valid_time: DateTime.t()}]
def scores_at(band_mhz, valid_time, bounds \\ nil) do
time = valid_time || earliest_valid_time(band_mhz)
case time do
nil -> []
_ -> scores_at_fetch(band_mhz, time, bounds)
end
end
# Cache-hit path is the map's most frequent LiveView call (~every
# pan + click). A wrapping Instrument.span fires 2 telemetry handler
# dispatches that dominate the ~10µs ETS lookup — skip the span on
# hits and rely on the cheap hit/miss counter for the cache-ratio
# panel. The miss path still wraps the disk read where duration is
# the meaningful signal.
defp scores_at_fetch(band_mhz, time, bounds) do
case ScoreCache.fetch_bounds(band_mhz, time, bounds) do
{:ok, scores} ->
:telemetry.execute([:microwaveprop, :propagation, :scores_at, :cache], %{}, %{hit: true})
Enum.map(scores, &Map.put(&1, :valid_time, time))
:miss ->
:telemetry.execute([:microwaveprop, :propagation, :scores_at, :cache], %{}, %{hit: false})
Microwaveprop.Instrument.span([:propagation, :scores_at], %{band_mhz: band_mhz}, fn ->
read_from_disk_and_cache(band_mhz, time, bounds)
end)
end
end
@doc """
Variant of `scores_at/3` that always reads from the `.prop` file on
disk and overwrites the cache entry, rather than returning whatever
the cache happens to hold. Use from update paths (the map's
`propagation_updated` handler) where the underlying file has just
been rewritten but the cache may still contain the previous chain's
scores because of the race between `propagation:cache` fan-out and
`propagation:updated` delivery.
"""
@spec scores_at_fresh(non_neg_integer(), DateTime.t(), %{optional(String.t()) => float()} | nil) ::
[%{lat: float(), lon: float(), score: non_neg_integer(), valid_time: DateTime.t()}]
def scores_at_fresh(band_mhz, %DateTime{} = valid_time, bounds \\ nil) do
read_from_disk_and_cache(band_mhz, valid_time, bounds)
end
defp read_from_disk_and_cache(band_mhz, time, bounds) do
full = ScoresFile.read_bounds(band_mhz, time)
ScoreCache.put(band_mhz, time, full)
full
|> filter_bounds(bounds)
|> Enum.map(&Map.put(&1, :valid_time, time))
end
@doc """
Load the full CONUS score set for `{band_mhz, valid_time}` from the
on-disk binary file and broadcast it to every `ScoreCache` in the
cluster. Called from `PropagationGridWorker` after each forecast
hour so all pods have a warm cache by the time clients begin
requesting the new hour.
Returns `{:error, reason}` when the score file is missing or
corrupt — callers distinguish those from the successful empty-grid
case to avoid poisoning the cache with `[]` on a bad read.
"""
@spec warm_cache_and_broadcast(non_neg_integer(), DateTime.t()) ::
:ok | {:error, :enoent | :invalid_format}
def warm_cache_and_broadcast(band_mhz, valid_time) do
case ScoresFile.read(band_mhz, valid_time) do
{:ok, payload} ->
scores = ScoresFile.extract_points(payload, nil)
ScoreCache.broadcast_put(band_mhz, valid_time, scores)
:ok
{:error, reason} ->
{:error, reason}
end
end
defp filter_bounds(scores, nil), do: scores
defp filter_bounds(scores, %{"south" => s, "north" => n, "west" => w, "east" => e}) do
Enum.filter(scores, fn %{lat: lat, lon: lon} ->
lat >= s and lat <= n and lon >= w and lon <= e
end)
end
@doc """
Pack a list of `%{lat, lon, score}` into `[[lat, lon, score], ...]`
for transmission to the browser. Repeating the three JSON keys for
every one of ~95k cells added ~50% to the wire payload; the flat
array representation trims ~4045% of the bytes without changing
the information content. Browser-side, the typed `ScorePoint`
tuple is `[lat, lon, score]` and `ScoreGrid.put` takes positional
args, so the client decoder is also one allocation lighter per
point.
"""
@spec pack_scores([%{lat: float(), lon: float(), score: non_neg_integer()}]) :: [
[number()]
]
def pack_scores(scores) when is_list(scores) do
Enum.map(scores, fn %{lat: lat, lon: lon, score: score} -> [lat, lon, score] end)
end
@doc "Get the latest scores for a band (alias for scores_at with earliest valid_time)."
@spec latest_scores(non_neg_integer(), %{optional(String.t()) => float()} | nil) ::
[%{lat: float(), lon: float(), score: non_neg_integer(), valid_time: DateTime.t()}]
def latest_scores(band_mhz, bounds \\ nil) do
scores_at(band_mhz, nil, bounds)
end
defp earliest_valid_time(band_mhz) do
case ScoresFile.list_valid_times(band_mhz) do
[earliest | _] -> earliest
[] -> nil
end
end
@doc "Get scores across all forecast hours for a single grid point (for sparkline)."
@spec point_forecast(non_neg_integer(), float(), float()) ::
[%{valid_time: DateTime.t(), score: non_neg_integer()}]
def point_forecast(band_mhz, lat, lon) do
Microwaveprop.Instrument.span([:propagation, :point_forecast], %{band_mhz: band_mhz}, fn ->
{snapped_lat, snapped_lon} = snap_to_grid(lat, lon)
now = DateTime.utc_now()
# Use the on-disk .prop file list as the authoritative timeline so
# the chart never falls behind the main-map timeline (which also
# reads the disk). The cache is still consulted per-hour for a
# fast score lookup; a miss falls through to the file.
# Fan the per-hour disk lookups across 4 tasks. Each ScoresFile
# read_point is an NFS stat + pread of ~100 bytes (keyed byte at
# row*cols+col), so the ceiling is NFS RTT × number of hours —
# sequential ran ~45× the wall time of the slowest read.
band_mhz
|> ScoresFile.list_valid_times()
|> forecast_window(now)
|> Task.async_stream(
&point_forecast_entry(band_mhz, &1, snapped_lat, snapped_lon),
max_concurrency: 4,
ordered: true,
timeout: 5_000
)
|> Enum.flat_map(fn
{:ok, nil} -> []
{:ok, entry} -> [entry]
{:exit, _} -> []
end)
end)
end
defp point_forecast_entry(band_mhz, valid_time, lat, lon) do
case ScoreCache.fetch_point(band_mhz, valid_time, lat, lon) do
{:ok, score} ->
%{valid_time: valid_time, score: score}
:miss ->
case ScoresFile.read_point(band_mhz, valid_time, lat, lon) do
nil -> nil
score -> %{valid_time: valid_time, score: score}
end
end
end
# Select the set of valid_times the forecast chart should render.
# Mirrors `available_valid_times`: keep everything from one hour
# before now onward so the most recent analysis hour (typically
# ~3060 min behind wall clock due to HRRR publishing lag) sits at
# the left edge of the chart as "now". When every hour on disk is
# older than that cutoff, fall back to just the newest entry so the
# chart can still render a single data point.
defp forecast_window([], _now), do: []
defp forecast_window(times, now) do
past_cutoff = DateTime.add(now, -3600, :second)
future_cutoff = DateTime.add(now, @hrrr_forecast_horizon_hours * 3600, :second)
filter_or_latest(times, past_cutoff, future_cutoff)
end
defp snap_to_grid(lat, lon) do
step = Grid.step()
{Float.round(Float.round(lat / step) * step, 3), Float.round(Float.round(lon / step) * step, 3)}
end
@doc "Get the full score and factors for a specific grid point, snapped to nearest grid."
@spec point_detail(non_neg_integer(), float(), float(), DateTime.t() | nil) ::
%{
lat: float(),
lon: float(),
score: non_neg_integer(),
factors: map(),
valid_time: DateTime.t()
}
| nil
def point_detail(band_mhz, lat, lon, valid_time \\ nil) do
Microwaveprop.Instrument.span([:propagation, :point_detail], %{band_mhz: band_mhz}, fn ->
do_point_detail(band_mhz, lat, lon, valid_time)
end)
end
defp do_point_detail(band_mhz, lat, lon, valid_time) do
{snapped_lat, snapped_lon} = snap_to_grid(lat, lon)
time = valid_time || latest_valid_time(band_mhz)
case time do
nil ->
nil
_ ->
case ScoresFile.read_point(band_mhz, time, snapped_lat, snapped_lon) do
nil ->
nil
score ->
%{
lat: snapped_lat,
lon: snapped_lon,
score: score,
factors: factors_for(band_mhz, time, snapped_lat, snapped_lon),
valid_time: time
}
end
end
end
# Rebuild the factor breakdown for a clicked grid cell by rescoring
# the persisted HRRR profile. Only analysis hours (f00) persist
# profiles, so forecast hours fall back to the most recent analysis
# profile within `@fallback_profile_lookback_hours` — the atmospheric
# breakdown still explains what's driving the score even if sampled
# an hour or two earlier. Outside the lookback we prefer to return
# an empty map so the UI shows "breakdown unavailable" rather than
# silently attributing scores to a day-old synoptic pattern.
@fallback_profile_lookback_hours 24
defp factors_for(band_mhz, valid_time, lat, lon) do
case ProfilesFile.read_point(valid_time, lat, lon) do
nil -> factors_from_fallback_profile(band_mhz, valid_time, lat, lon)
profile -> factors_from_profile(band_mhz, valid_time, profile, lat, lon)
end
end
defp factors_from_fallback_profile(band_mhz, valid_time, lat, lon) do
case latest_profile_time_within_lookback(valid_time) do
nil ->
%{}
fallback_time ->
case ProfilesFile.read_point(fallback_time, lat, lon) do
nil -> %{}
profile -> factors_from_profile(band_mhz, fallback_time, profile, lat, lon)
end
end
end
defp factors_from_profile(band_mhz, valid_time, profile, lat, lon) do
profile
|> score_grid_point(valid_time, lat, lon)
|> Enum.find(fn r -> r.band_mhz == band_mhz end)
|> case do
%{factors: factors} when is_map(factors) -> factors
_ -> %{}
end
end
defp latest_profile_time_within_lookback(%DateTime{} = valid_time) do
lookback_cutoff = DateTime.add(valid_time, -@fallback_profile_lookback_hours * 3600, :second)
ProfilesFile.list_valid_times()
|> Enum.filter(fn t ->
DateTime.compare(t, valid_time) != :gt and DateTime.compare(t, lookback_cutoff) != :lt
end)
|> case do
[] -> nil
past -> Enum.max(past, DateTime)
end
end
@doc "Get the latest valid_time across all bands."
@spec latest_valid_time() :: DateTime.t() | nil
def latest_valid_time do
ScoresFile.latest_valid_time()
end
@doc "Get the latest valid_time for a specific band."
@spec latest_valid_time(non_neg_integer()) :: DateTime.t() | nil
def latest_valid_time(band_mhz) do
case ScoresFile.list_valid_times(band_mhz) do
[] -> nil
times -> Enum.max(times, DateTime)
end
end
## Run timings
@doc """
Record wall-clock duration for a single forecast-hour chain step.
Called by `PropagationGridWorker` at the end of every step (success or
failure) so the timing history survives pod restarts and can be
inspected later to see which steps are slow or flaky.
"""
@spec record_run_timing(map()) ::
{:ok, RunTiming.t()} | {:error, Ecto.Changeset.t()}
def record_run_timing(attrs) do
%RunTiming{}
|> RunTiming.changeset(attrs)
|> Repo.insert()
end
@doc """
List the most-recently-started run-timing rows, newest first.
Defaults to 100 rows; pass `:limit` to override.
"""
@spec list_recent_run_timings(keyword()) :: [RunTiming.t()]
def list_recent_run_timings(opts \\ []) do
limit = Keyword.get(opts, :limit, 100)
RunTiming
|> order_by(desc: :started_at)
|> limit(^limit)
|> Repo.all()
end
# Prefer the persisted scalar — `hrrr_profiles` already stored this at
# ingestion time and AsosAdjustmentWorker loads 92k rows per tick without
# the JSONB `profile` column to avoid a Jason.decode! storm on the DB pool.
defp derive_from_hrrr(%{min_refractivity_gradient: grad}) when is_number(grad) do
%{min_refractivity_gradient: grad * 1.0}
end
defp derive_from_hrrr(%{profile: profile}) when is_list(profile) and length(profile) >= 3 do
case SoundingParams.derive(profile) do
nil -> %{}
derived -> %{min_refractivity_gradient: derived.min_refractivity_gradient}
end
end
defp derive_from_hrrr(_), do: %{}
end