prop/lib/microwaveprop/commercial.ex
Graham McIntire 86364f43aa
Wire NEXRAD, native ducts, and commercial links into scoring
Three signal sources we already collect but weren't using:

* NEXRAD composite reflectivity → rain rate via Marshall-Palmer, taken
  as max of HRRR-derived and NEXRAD-derived rate so fast convective
  cells between HRRR hourly analyses can still trigger the rain penalty.
  Only active on f00 — forecast hours can't see future radar. New
  Scorer.dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr/1 with 5 dBZ noise floor and 150 mm/hr
  hail-safe ceiling.

* hrrr_native_profiles.best_duct_band_ghz → Scorer.score_refractivity/4
  applies a 1.15× boost when the cell's native-resolution duct supports
  the target band's frequency. HRRR pressure-level gradients
  systematically under-read thin trapping layers the native profile can
  resolve. Sub-band ducts do NOT boost — they're evidence that the
  gradient we have is all there is at the target frequency.

* Commercial LOS link rx_power fading → inverse tropo sensor.
  Commercial.link_degradation_at/3 computes the average 7-day-baseline
  vs current delta across enabled links within 75 km, ignoring links
  where link_state != 1. Scorer.commercial_link_boost/2 adds +2 to +25
  to the composite score for 3+ dB of fading. ~150 km radius around
  DFW is the only zone this helps today, but it's the first *measured*
  signal in the algorithm vs the model-derived proxies.

Also fix a latent test bug exposed by the earlier ERA5 poll-timeout
bump: era5_batch_client_test's "uncached path returns error" tests
hung for up to an hour when run with direnv's real CDS key. New
describe-level setup explicitly unsets the env var so the tests stay
hermetic.

1,359 tests, 0 failures.
2026-04-13 12:08:15 -05:00

180 lines
5.5 KiB
Elixir

defmodule Microwaveprop.Commercial do
@moduledoc false
import Ecto.Query
alias Microwaveprop.Commercial.Link
alias Microwaveprop.Commercial.Sample
alias Microwaveprop.Repo
@default_radius_km 75.0
@default_baseline_days 7
@default_current_window_seconds 900
@min_baseline_samples 5
@spec enabled_links() :: [Link.t()]
def enabled_links do
Link
|> where([l], l.enabled == true)
|> Repo.all()
end
@doc """
Returns the aggregate commercial-link rx_power degradation at a location,
or `nil` if no healthy links are in range.
Commercial LOS microwave links near the target point act as an inverse
tropo sensor: when their rx_power drops significantly below the 7-day
baseline without an obvious equipment cause (link_state still 1), the
refractivity structure that hurts their short Fresnel zone is usually
the same structure that *helps* long beyond-LOS amateur propagation.
Result map:
%{
degradation_db: float (positive means worse than baseline),
baseline_dbm: float,
current_dbm: float,
n_links: integer
}
## Options
* `:radius_km` — distance from the target point to include a link (default 75)
* `:baseline_days` — days of history for the baseline average (default 7)
* `:current_window_seconds` — how recent "current" rx must be (default 900)
"""
@spec link_degradation_at({float(), float()}, DateTime.t(), keyword()) :: map() | nil
def link_degradation_at({lat, lon}, valid_time, opts \\ []) do
radius_km = Keyword.get(opts, :radius_km, @default_radius_km)
baseline_days = Keyword.get(opts, :baseline_days, @default_baseline_days)
current_window = Keyword.get(opts, :current_window_seconds, @default_current_window_seconds)
candidates =
enabled_links()
|> Enum.map(fn link -> {link, link_endpoint(link)} end)
|> Enum.reject(fn {_link, endpoint} -> is_nil(endpoint) end)
|> Enum.filter(fn {_link, {elat, elon}} ->
haversine_km(lat, lon, elat, elon) <= radius_km
end)
baseline_cutoff = DateTime.add(valid_time, -baseline_days * 24 * 3600, :second)
current_cutoff = DateTime.add(valid_time, -current_window, :second)
results =
candidates
|> Enum.map(fn {link, _endpoint} ->
link_degradation(link.id, baseline_cutoff, current_cutoff, valid_time)
end)
|> Enum.reject(&is_nil/1)
case results do
[] ->
nil
list ->
baseline_avg = average(Enum.map(list, & &1.baseline_dbm))
current_avg = average(Enum.map(list, & &1.current_dbm))
%{
degradation_db: Float.round(baseline_avg - current_avg, 2),
baseline_dbm: Float.round(baseline_avg, 2),
current_dbm: Float.round(current_avg, 2),
n_links: length(list)
}
end
end
defp link_degradation(link_id, baseline_cutoff, current_cutoff, valid_time) do
baseline =
Sample
|> where([s], s.link_id == ^link_id)
|> where([s], s.sampled_at >= ^baseline_cutoff and s.sampled_at < ^current_cutoff)
|> where([s], s.link_state == 1 and not is_nil(s.rx_power_0))
|> select([s], avg(s.rx_power_0))
|> Repo.one()
{current, baseline_n} = fetch_current_and_baseline_count(link_id, current_cutoff, valid_time)
cond do
is_nil(baseline) or is_nil(current) ->
nil
baseline_n < @min_baseline_samples ->
nil
true ->
%{baseline_dbm: to_float(baseline), current_dbm: current}
end
end
defp to_float(%Decimal{} = d), do: Decimal.to_float(d)
defp to_float(n) when is_number(n), do: n * 1.0
defp fetch_current_and_baseline_count(link_id, current_cutoff, valid_time) do
current =
Sample
|> where([s], s.link_id == ^link_id)
|> where([s], s.sampled_at >= ^current_cutoff and s.sampled_at <= ^valid_time)
|> where([s], s.link_state == 1 and not is_nil(s.rx_power_0))
|> order_by([s], desc: s.sampled_at)
|> limit(1)
|> select([s], s.rx_power_0)
|> Repo.one()
baseline_n =
Sample
|> where([s], s.link_id == ^link_id)
|> where([s], s.sampled_at < ^current_cutoff)
|> where([s], s.link_state == 1 and not is_nil(s.rx_power_0))
|> select([s], count(s.id))
|> Repo.one()
{current, baseline_n}
end
defp link_endpoint(%Link{endpoint_a: %{"lat" => lat, "lon" => lon}}) when is_number(lat) and is_number(lon),
do: {lat * 1.0, lon * 1.0}
defp link_endpoint(_), do: nil
defp haversine_km(lat1, lon1, lat2, lon2) do
r = 6371.0
phi1 = lat1 * :math.pi() / 180
phi2 = lat2 * :math.pi() / 180
dphi = (lat2 - lat1) * :math.pi() / 180
dlambda = (lon2 - lon1) * :math.pi() / 180
a =
:math.sin(dphi / 2) * :math.sin(dphi / 2) +
:math.cos(phi1) * :math.cos(phi2) * :math.sin(dlambda / 2) * :math.sin(dlambda / 2)
c = 2 * :math.atan2(:math.sqrt(a), :math.sqrt(1 - a))
r * c
end
defp average([]), do: 0.0
defp average(list), do: Enum.sum(list) / length(list)
@spec create_link(map()) :: {:ok, Link.t()} | {:error, Ecto.Changeset.t()}
def create_link(attrs) do
%Link{}
|> Link.changeset(attrs)
|> Repo.insert()
end
@spec create_sample(map()) :: {:ok, Sample.t()} | {:error, Ecto.Changeset.t()}
def create_sample(attrs) do
%Sample{}
|> Sample.changeset(attrs)
|> Repo.insert()
end
@spec weather_stations() :: [String.t()]
def weather_stations do
Link
|> where([l], l.enabled == true and not is_nil(l.weather_station))
|> select([l], l.weather_station)
|> distinct(true)
|> Repo.all()
end
end