prop/lib/microwaveprop
Graham McIntire 3a1e79fb67
feat(scorer): retire HPBL multiplier and native-duct 1.15× boost
Both retired in light of the 2026-04-25 revision report
(`docs/algo-reports/2026-04-25-algo-revisions.md`):

  * HPBL boundary-layer multiplier in `Scorer.score_refractivity/{3,4,5}`
    is gone. On the n=47,418 10 GHz HRRR-matched corpus rho_hpbl is
    +0.004; binned distance is flat to within ±5 % across 200–2,000 m.
    The previously reported 2.3× ratio between shallow and deep HPBL
    bins was a small-corpus artefact that disappeared once the matched
    corpus passed ~5,000 contacts.

  * Native-profile 1.15× duct boost is gone. At 10 GHz on n=52,341
    matched contacts, cells where `best_duct_band_ghz` ≥ band ran
    *shorter* than no-duct cells (198 km vs 211 km, n=173 vs 44,658).
    The Bulk Richardson gate that existed only to suppress that boost
    in turbulent conditions is also retired; arity preserved on every
    `score_refractivity` overload so callers compile unchanged.

Same retirements applied in the Rust port (`rust/prop_grid_rs/src/scorer.rs`)
to keep the Elixir/Rust parity tests green.

algo.md updated end-to-end:

  * Finding 4 (HPBL) rewritten to "no usable signal" with the
    n=47,418 bin table.
  * Finding 5 (gradient) tightened: load-bearing only at 24 GHz,
    set band-specific gradient weight to 0 outside [10, 47] GHz on
    the next derive_band_weights run.
  * Finding 8 (time-of-day) augmented with the robust hour-bucketed
    amplitude index (40 / 82 / 101 % at 10 / 24 / 47 GHz) and a
    selection-bias caveat for VHF/UHF (where 129–148 % amplitude
    reflects evening contest scheduling, not propagation).
  * Finding 9 (sounding) refreshed against the n=27,058 corpus.
  * Part 2c "Native-profile duct boost" rewritten as
    "retired 2026-04-25" with the falsifying join.
  * Part 2c "Commercial-link inverse sensor" promoted from deferred
    with the 22-day, 38k-sample SNMP corpus, the +0.61 / −0.61 PWAT
    and pressure correlations against the 37-hour HRRR overlap, and
    the 04–05 / 10–12 local two-peak morning fade window.
  * Part 2b "Pressure" annotated with the U-shape at 10 GHz and the
    next-iteration target.
  * Part 2d "What stayed, what left" + "Open items" updated to
    reflect the four code/doc moves.

119 Elixir scorer tests green, 134 Rust scorer tests green, 2,888
total Elixir tests + 221 properties green via `mix precommit`.
2026-04-25 12:42:56 -05:00
..
accounts chore(specs): add @spec to public API in accounts/release/backtest 2026-04-21 13:32:42 -05:00
backtest fix(dialyzer): clear 125+ warnings under strict flags 2026-04-21 10:30:06 -05:00
beacon_monitors Add dialyzer specs and types across the codebase 2026-04-12 08:55:04 -05:00
beacons Short-circuit RangeEstimate below 5.76 GHz to stop browser lockup 2026-04-14 16:56:24 -05:00
callsign_location Drop gridmap.org dependency, resolve callsigns locally 2026-04-12 17:43:29 -05:00
commercial test: push line coverage from 71.7% → 78.67% 2026-04-23 18:43:18 -05:00
ionosphere fix(ionosphere): disable TLS verify for GIRO to unbreak ionosonde fetch 2026-04-22 09:49:03 -05:00
prom_ex perf(prop): cap ScoreCache LRU + drop eager warmers to fix hot-pod OOMs 2026-04-24 18:49:36 -05:00
propagation feat(scorer): retire HPBL multiplier and native-duct 1.15× boost 2026-04-25 12:42:56 -05:00
qrz feat(telemetry): broaden Instrument span coverage 2026-04-18 17:25:33 -05:00
radio fix: April 2026 codebase review — address 13 bugs across propagation chain 2026-04-25 10:52:51 -05:00
space_weather fix(ingest): dedupe ASOS duplicates + shrink SWPC decode errors 2026-04-21 16:39:17 -05:00
terrain fix(dialyzer): clear 125+ warnings under strict flags 2026-04-21 10:30:06 -05:00
weather fix: April 2026 codebase review — address 13 bugs across propagation chain 2026-04-25 10:52:51 -05:00
workers feat(prop): adaptive HRRR cycle selection — prefer fresh, fall back if late 2026-04-24 19:44:07 -05:00
accounts.ex chore(specs): add @spec to public API in accounts/release/backtest 2026-04-21 13:32:42 -05:00
application.ex perf(prop): cap ScoreCache LRU + drop eager warmers to fix hot-pod OOMs 2026-04-24 18:49:36 -05:00
backtest.ex chore(specs): add @spec to public API in accounts/release/backtest 2026-04-21 13:32:42 -05:00
beacon_monitors.ex Add dialyzer specs and types across the codebase 2026-04-12 08:55:04 -05:00
beacons.ex fix(dialyzer): actually fix LiveTable warnings instead of hiding them 2026-04-21 12:58:10 -05:00
cache.ex fix(cache): add periodic TTL sweeper to bound ETS growth 2026-04-21 13:19:53 -05:00
callsign_location.ex Drop gridmap.org dependency, resolve callsigns locally 2026-04-12 17:43:29 -05:00
commercial.ex fix: April 2026 codebase review — address 13 bugs across propagation chain 2026-04-25 10:52:51 -05:00
format.ex refactor(format): consolidate number/bytes formatters + handle flaky IEM transports 2026-04-21 17:09:41 -05:00
geo.ex Fix all remaining credo --strict issues (0 issues) 2026-04-12 10:26:53 -05:00
geocoder.ex feat(telemetry): broaden Instrument span coverage 2026-04-18 17:25:33 -05:00
instrument.ex feat(telemetry): wide instrumentation + bump hrrr to 2 per pod 2026-04-18 16:33:34 -05:00
ionosphere.ex refactor(db): use explicit on_conflict set clauses over :replace_all_except 2026-04-21 14:22:15 -05:00
mailer.ex Send mail as prop@w5isp.com with reply-to graham@mcintire.me 2026-04-12 14:00:38 -05:00
markdown.ex Add dialyzer specs and types across the codebase 2026-04-12 08:55:04 -05:00
moon.ex feat(eme): add /eme Earth-Moon-Earth calculator 2026-04-23 16:18:20 -05:00
oban_error_reporter.ex feat(observability): attach Oban exception telemetry tap 2026-04-21 14:13:53 -05:00
prom_ex.ex fix: stabilize flaky tests + silence PromEx Oban poller in test 2026-04-21 13:49:07 -05:00
propagation.ex fix: April 2026 codebase review — address 13 bugs across propagation chain 2026-04-25 10:52:51 -05:00
qrz.ex Drop gridmap.org dependency, resolve callsigns locally 2026-04-12 17:43:29 -05:00
radio.ex fix: April 2026 codebase review — address 13 bugs across propagation chain 2026-04-25 10:52:51 -05:00
release.ex chore(specs): add @spec to public API in accounts/release/backtest 2026-04-21 13:32:42 -05:00
repo.ex initial 2026-03-28 11:28:47 -05:00
repo_listener.ex chore(specs): add @spec to public API in accounts/release/backtest 2026-04-21 13:32:42 -05:00
space_weather.ex refactor(db): use explicit on_conflict set clauses over :replace_all_except 2026-04-21 14:22:15 -05:00
terrain.ex Add dialyzer specs and types across the codebase 2026-04-12 08:55:04 -05:00
weather.ex fix: April 2026 codebase review — address 13 bugs across propagation chain 2026-04-25 10:52:51 -05:00