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Graham McIntire 7a2b1f292c
feat(pskr): hourly calibration sampler joining spots × HRRR × Kp
PSK Reporter is now an always-on data feed, so the calibration
corpus that recalibration will eventually train against can grow
hourly from when the firehose started. One row per (hour, band,
0.125° midpoint cell) joins three sources:

  * `pskr_spots_hourly` — observed spot density (truth signal)
  * `hrrr_profiles` nearest match at the cell midpoint at hour
    boundary (atmospheric features: T, Td, PWAT, P, dN/dh, HPBL,
    ducting flag)
  * `geomagnetic_observations` latest Kp at the hour (space weather)

Predicted scores are intentionally NOT stored — they're a function
of the algorithm version under evaluation. Storing only features
keeps the corpus stable across every weight refit; the recalibrator
computes predictions on demand.

Components:

  * Migration `20260504210756_create_pskr_calibration_samples` —
    new table + unique index on (hour, band, midpoint_lat, lon),
    plus a midpoint spatial index on `pskr_spots_hourly` to keep
    the join cheap.
  * `Pskr.CalibrationSample` — schema mirror of the table with
    the same `(hour, band, midpoint_lat, lon)` unique constraint.
  * `Pskr.CalibrationSampler.build_for_hour/1` — pulls all spots
    for the hour, snaps midpoints to the propagation grid (0.125°),
    builds an in-memory HRRR index over a ±0.07°/±60 min window,
    and bulk-upserts samples. Idempotent — re-runs upsert.
  * `Workers.PskrCalibrationWorker` — Oban cron entry on the
    `:backfill_enqueue` queue. Default args target the previous
    full hour; explicit `hour_utc` arg reruns any hour.
  * Cron `25 * * * *` — fires past HRRR analysis publish window
    (~HH:50→HH:05) and PSKR aggregator's 60s flush.

Forward-only: PSKR has no historical archive, so the corpus only
grows from when the feed started. Recalibration weight refits
should wait for ~30 days / ~10k samples to cover diurnal and
synoptic variability.

Tests cover cell-snapping, HRRR feature joining, Kp stamping,
median-distance aggregation, mode dedup, idempotent reruns, and
the worker's default-hour and explicit-hour args (12 new tests,
all passing).

Backfill pipeline untouched — none of these changes feed into
contact enrichment.
2026-05-04 16:12:47 -05:00
.forgejo/workflows ci: rebuild prop-base weekly to pull Debian security patches 2026-05-03 11:51:08 -05:00
.github Add contact edit approval system with admin review queue 2026-04-11 16:15:49 -05:00
assets perf(beacons): coverage map uses Leaflet canvas renderer, no sticky tooltips 2026-05-04 08:20:20 -05:00
bin Fix livebook path resolution in bin/notebook 2026-04-07 11:15:49 -05:00
config feat(pskr): hourly calibration sampler joining spots × HRRR × Kp 2026-05-04 16:12:47 -05:00
docs docs(hrdps): record stage progress + dormant scaffolding state 2026-04-29 17:13:08 -05:00
k8s ops: prop deployment floor at 2 replicas, surge to 4 2026-05-03 15:06:37 -05:00
lib feat(pskr): hourly calibration sampler joining spots × HRRR × Kp 2026-05-04 16:12:47 -05:00
lib_ml feat(ml): add prop.compare task for algorithm-vs-ML-vs-reality calibration 2026-04-28 14:38:02 -05:00
notebooks refactor: normalize pos1/pos2 JSONB key to 'lon' everywhere 2026-04-17 09:10:32 -05:00
priv feat(pskr): hourly calibration sampler joining spots × HRRR × Kp 2026-05-04 16:12:47 -05:00
rel Add Erlang clustering via libcluster and expose LiveDashboard 2026-04-06 09:46:48 -05:00
rust/prop_grid_rs fix(prop-grid): keep HRDPS lat=50 boundary row to close /weather seam 2026-04-30 16:44:53 -05:00
scripts chore: delete dead RTMA + METAR5 code paths 2026-05-04 15:09:19 -05:00
test feat(pskr): hourly calibration sampler joining spots × HRRR × Kp 2026-05-04 16:12:47 -05:00
vendor deps: bump oban 2.22.0 → 2.22.1, oban_web (vendored) 2.12.1 → 2.12.3 2026-04-30 09:34:45 -05:00
.credo.exs credo 2026-04-12 10:26:53 -05:00
.dockerignore Optimize Dockerfile layer caching 2026-04-01 10:32:56 -05:00
.formatter.exs initial 2026-03-28 11:28:47 -05:00
.gitignore feat(ml): add prop.compare task for algorithm-vs-ML-vs-reality calibration 2026-04-28 14:38:02 -05:00
.tool-versions update deps 2026-04-11 12:03:43 -05:00
AGENTS.md initial 2026-03-28 11:28:47 -05:00
algo.md feat(weather): /weather-ca endpoint shows HRDPS-only Canadian data 2026-04-30 12:08:48 -05:00
app.json Migrate healthchecks from CHECKS to app.json 2026-04-04 11:24:56 -05:00
bugs.md fix: April 2026 codebase review — address 13 bugs across propagation chain 2026-04-25 10:52:51 -05:00
CLAUDE.md fix(about): per-table count fallback so missing tables don't blank everything 2026-05-03 14:21:53 -05:00
Dockerfile refactor(pskr): drop emqtt, talk MQTT 3.1.1 over :gen_tcp directly 2026-05-04 09:52:34 -05:00
Dockerfile.base ops: trigger base image rebuild after registry blob loss 2026-05-04 09:27:04 -05:00
elevation.md add elevation findings 2026-03-29 16:23:03 -05:00
LICENSE Add GPLv3 license 2026-04-23 13:57:07 -05:00
mix.exs refactor(pskr): drop emqtt, talk MQTT 3.1.1 over :gen_tcp directly 2026-05-04 09:52:34 -05:00
mix.lock refactor(pskr): drop emqtt, talk MQTT 3.1.1 over :gen_tcp directly 2026-05-04 09:52:34 -05:00
prediction.md HRRR forecast hours (f00-f18) with timeline map UI 2026-03-31 16:44:47 -05:00
README.md initial 2026-03-28 11:28:47 -05:00
tail_logs.sh Add type filter to backfill enqueue 2026-04-06 11:42:26 -05:00
updates.md Update seasonal scores from sounding data, document commercial link patterns 2026-04-07 11:45:44 -05:00

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