prop/test/microwaveprop/propagation/recalibrator_test.exs
Graham McIntire 5fd37a17fd
feat(propagation): per-band weight calibration from full-corpus correlation
Ran recalibrate_algo.py against the full local prop_dev (81,994 contacts,
18.6M HRRR rows) and derived per-band composite weights for the nine
bands with >=200 matched contacts. Moisture (dewpoint/PWAT/surface N)
is consistently beneficial through 5.76 GHz, reverses at 24 GHz; rain
scales sqrt(rain_k) not linearly so 24 GHz gets 0.215 rain weight
instead of the linear-ratio 0.95. 10 GHz stays as the reference band
(defaults); 47+ GHz inherits defaults (n<200).

- BandConfig.weights/1 returns per-band override or default fallback
- @band_configs carries :weights on 222/432/902/1296/2304/3400/5760/24G
- Recalibrator.compute_factors/3 + fit(band_mhz:) band-aware fitting
- Scorer + ContactLive.Show pass band_config to weights/1
- algo.md Part 2d documents the 2026-04-18 analysis + derivation rule
- scripts/derive_band_weights.py turns correlations into weight maps
- report preserved at docs/algo-reports/2026-04-18-recalibration.md
2026-04-18 10:19:26 -05:00

220 lines
7.4 KiB
Elixir

defmodule Microwaveprop.Propagation.RecalibratorTest do
use Microwaveprop.DataCase, async: true
alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.Recalibrator
alias Microwaveprop.Radio.Contact
alias Microwaveprop.Weather.HrrrProfile
@factor_keys ~w(humidity time_of_day td_depression refractivity sky season wind rain pwat pressure)a
defp create_contact(attrs) do
ts = Map.get(attrs, :qso_timestamp, ~U[2024-07-15 06:00:00Z])
lat = Map.get(attrs, :lat, 32.9)
lon = Map.get(attrs, :lon, -97.0)
contact_attrs = %{
station1: Map.fetch!(attrs, :station1),
station2: "K5TR",
qso_timestamp: ts,
mode: "CW",
band: Decimal.new("10000"),
grid1: "EM12",
grid2: "EM00",
pos1: %{"lat" => lat, "lon" => lon},
pos2: %{"lat" => 30.3, "lon" => -97.7},
distance_km: Decimal.new("295")
}
{:ok, contact} =
%Contact{}
|> Contact.changeset(contact_attrs)
|> Repo.insert()
contact
end
defp create_hrrr_profile(attrs) do
{:ok, profile} =
%HrrrProfile{}
|> HrrrProfile.changeset(%{
valid_time: Map.fetch!(attrs, :valid_time),
lat: Map.fetch!(attrs, :lat),
lon: Map.fetch!(attrs, :lon),
surface_temp_c: Map.get(attrs, :surface_temp_c, 28.0),
surface_dewpoint_c: Map.get(attrs, :surface_dewpoint_c, 22.0),
surface_pressure_mb: Map.get(attrs, :surface_pressure_mb, 1005.0),
min_refractivity_gradient: Map.get(attrs, :min_refractivity_gradient, -120.0),
hpbl_m: Map.get(attrs, :hpbl_m, 800.0),
pwat_mm: Map.get(attrs, :pwat_mm, 35.0)
})
|> Repo.insert()
profile
end
# Synthetic factor vectors for training tests.
# Positives: high scores (good propagation conditions).
# Negatives: low scores (poor propagation conditions).
defp synthetic_positives do
for _ <- 1..20 do
[85, 90, 80, 75, 88, 70, 95, 100, 75, 82]
|> Enum.map(fn base -> base + :rand.uniform(10) - 5 end)
|> Enum.map(&min(100, max(0, &1)))
end
end
defp synthetic_negatives do
for _ <- 1..20 do
[40, 35, 45, 50, 30, 55, 50, 60, 50, 45]
|> Enum.map(fn base -> base + :rand.uniform(10) - 5 end)
|> Enum.map(&min(100, max(0, &1)))
end
end
describe "train/3" do
test "returns a weights map with all 10 factor keys summing to ~1.0" do
result = Recalibrator.train(synthetic_positives(), synthetic_negatives(), epochs: 50, learning_rate: 0.01)
assert is_map(result.weights)
for key <- @factor_keys do
assert Map.has_key?(result.weights, key), "missing weight for #{key}"
weight = result.weights[key]
assert is_float(weight), "weight for #{key} should be float, got #{inspect(weight)}"
assert weight >= 0.0, "weight for #{key} should be non-negative"
end
sum = result.weights |> Map.values() |> Enum.sum()
assert_in_delta sum, 1.0, 0.001, "weights should sum to 1.0, got #{sum}"
end
test "train_loss decreases from initial loss" do
result = Recalibrator.train(synthetic_positives(), synthetic_negatives(), epochs: 200, learning_rate: 0.01)
assert is_float(result.train_loss)
assert is_float(result.val_loss)
assert is_float(result.initial_loss)
assert result.train_loss < result.initial_loss,
"train_loss (#{result.train_loss}) should be less than initial_loss (#{result.initial_loss})"
end
end
describe "fit/1" do
test "returns valid result with insufficient HRRR data (falls back to current weights)" do
# Contacts without matching HRRR profiles for baselines
create_contact(%{station1: "W5AA"})
create_contact(%{station1: "W5BB", lat: 33.0, lon: -96.0, qso_timestamp: ~U[2024-07-16 06:00:00Z]})
result = Recalibrator.fit(sample_size: 5, epochs: 20, learning_rate: 0.01)
assert is_map(result.weights)
assert map_size(result.weights) == 10
sum = result.weights |> Map.values() |> Enum.sum()
assert_in_delta sum, 1.0, 0.01
end
end
describe "compute_factors/2" do
test "builds a factor vector from an HRRR profile and timestamp" do
profile =
create_hrrr_profile(%{
valid_time: ~U[2024-07-15 06:00:00Z],
lat: 32.9,
lon: -97.0,
surface_temp_c: 28.0,
surface_dewpoint_c: 22.0,
surface_pressure_mb: 1005.0,
min_refractivity_gradient: -120.0,
hpbl_m: 800.0,
pwat_mm: 35.0
})
factors = Recalibrator.compute_factors(profile, ~U[2024-07-15 06:00:00Z])
assert is_list(factors)
assert length(factors) == 10
Enum.each(factors, fn f ->
assert is_number(f)
assert f >= 0 and f <= 100
end)
end
end
describe "compute_factors/3 (band-aware)" do
test "humidity score flips direction between 10 GHz (beneficial) and 24 GHz (harmful)" do
# Hot and moist profile — good for 10 GHz (high refractivity) but bad
# for 24 GHz (H2O absorption floor). Humidity factor must reflect this.
profile =
create_hrrr_profile(%{
valid_time: ~U[2024-08-15 06:00:00Z],
lat: 32.9,
lon: -97.0,
surface_temp_c: 32.0,
surface_dewpoint_c: 26.0,
surface_pressure_mb: 1005.0,
min_refractivity_gradient: -120.0,
hpbl_m: 800.0,
pwat_mm: 45.0
})
[humidity_10, _, _, _, _, _, _, _, _, _] =
Recalibrator.compute_factors(profile, ~U[2024-08-15 06:00:00Z], 10_000)
[humidity_24, _, _, _, _, _, _, _, _, _] =
Recalibrator.compute_factors(profile, ~U[2024-08-15 06:00:00Z], 24_000)
assert humidity_10 > humidity_24,
"high humidity should score higher at 10 GHz (beneficial) than 24 GHz (harmful); got #{humidity_10} vs #{humidity_24}"
end
test "defaults to 10 GHz when no band supplied" do
profile =
create_hrrr_profile(%{
valid_time: ~U[2024-08-15 06:00:00Z],
lat: 32.9,
lon: -97.0
})
default = Recalibrator.compute_factors(profile, ~U[2024-08-15 06:00:00Z])
explicit_10g = Recalibrator.compute_factors(profile, ~U[2024-08-15 06:00:00Z], 10_000)
assert default == explicit_10g
end
end
describe "fit/1 with :band_mhz" do
test "only pulls contacts matching the requested band" do
# Two 10 GHz and one 24 GHz contact. Asking for 24 GHz should see just one.
create_contact(%{station1: "W5AA", qso_timestamp: ~U[2024-08-15 06:00:00Z]})
create_contact(%{station1: "W5BB", qso_timestamp: ~U[2024-08-16 06:00:00Z]})
{:ok, _c} =
%Contact{}
|> Contact.changeset(%{
station1: "W5CC",
station2: "K5TR",
qso_timestamp: ~U[2024-08-17 06:00:00Z],
mode: "CW",
band: Decimal.new("24000"),
grid1: "EM12",
grid2: "EM00",
pos1: %{"lat" => 32.9, "lon" => -97.0},
pos2: %{"lat" => 30.3, "lon" => -97.7},
distance_km: Decimal.new("80")
})
|> Repo.insert()
result = Recalibrator.fit(band_mhz: 24_000, sample_size: 10, epochs: 10)
# No matching HRRR profile was inserted so this falls back to defaults —
# the contract we're validating is "the band filter was applied and only
# 24 GHz contacts were considered". The fallback weights path proves the
# band-specific contact count came through as 1, not 3.
assert is_map(result.weights)
assert map_size(result.weights) == 10
end
end
end