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Graham McIntire 13180d572e
NARR backfill plan + spike-captured inventory fixture
Replaces the broken ERA5/CDS path with NCEP NARR fetched anonymously
from NCEI. NARR is GRIB1, anonymous HTTPS, byte-range-fetchable, with
1979-01-01 → 2014-10-02 coverage that lines up perfectly against the
HRRR archive start. Variables match the existing era5_profiles schema
1:1 (DPT is a direct surface dewpoint record, no SPFH derivation
needed at the surface).

Phase 1 spike done by hand: byte-range fetched 5 surface records and
3 pressure-level records for DFW 2010-06-15 12Z. wgrib2 turned out to
NOT read GRIB1 messages (rd_grib2_seq_msg, grib1 message ignored, use
wgrib), so the plan now uses cdo for both GRIB1 decoding and Lambert
conformal nearest-neighbor remap. cdo -merge is the right operator
for combining records of different variables — cdo -cat is for time
concat and silently drops mismatched levels, shell cat produces an
invalid composite. cdo emits param numbers as varNNN; mapping table
is in the plan's Architecture section.

Spike values for DFW 2010-06-15 12Z (all physically sane):
  TMP_2m=296.94 K (23.8°C)   DPT_2m=294.49 K (21.3°C)
  HPBL=703 m                  PRES_sfc=99383 Pa
  PWAT=45.1 mm                TMP_850mb=291.52 K
  HGT_850mb=1547.8 m          SPFH_850mb=10.4 g/kg

Plan file kept at the original 2026-04-15-merra2-historical-backfill
filename for git history continuity even though the implementation
is NARR not MERRA-2 (history block at the top documents the pivot).
2026-04-15 17:10:46 -05:00
.forgejo/workflows Install Docker CLI in CI runner container 2026-04-11 09:04:22 -05:00
.github Add contact edit approval system with admin review queue 2026-04-11 16:15:49 -05:00
assets WeatherMap: actually move the legend to top-right 2026-04-15 14:12:29 -05:00
bin Fix livebook path resolution in bin/notebook 2026-04-07 11:15:49 -05:00
config ERA5: tighten stuck threshold to 8h and pause prod queues for diagnosis 2026-04-15 16:04:12 -05:00
docs NARR backfill plan + spike-captured inventory fixture 2026-04-15 17:10:46 -05:00
k8s chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1776290697-26015ce [skip ci] 2026-04-15 22:05:50 +00:00
lib ProfilesFile.read/1: drop [:safe] flag, trust our own files 2026-04-15 17:04:34 -05:00
lib_ml Retrain propagation ML on month-balanced HRRR → algorithm score 2026-04-14 08:16:08 -05:00
notebooks Auto-deploy analysis notebook as Livebook app 2026-04-07 11:15:49 -05:00
priv SpaceWeather: SWPC JSON ingestion (Kp, F10.7, GOES X-ray) 2026-04-15 14:55:24 -05:00
rel Add Erlang clustering via libcluster and expose LiveDashboard 2026-04-06 09:46:48 -05:00
scripts Extend recalibrate_algo.py with NEXRAD, native-duct, commercial sections 2026-04-13 12:14:05 -05:00
test NARR backfill plan + spike-captured inventory fixture 2026-04-15 17:10:46 -05:00
vendor Vendor oban_pro 1.6.13 2026-04-09 14:14:49 -05:00
.credo.exs credo 2026-04-12 10:26:53 -05:00
.dockerignore Optimize Dockerfile layer caching 2026-04-01 10:32:56 -05:00
.formatter.exs initial 2026-03-28 11:28:47 -05:00
.gitignore Dual-write propagation scores to binary files on /data 2026-04-14 14:36:55 -05:00
.tool-versions update deps 2026-04-11 12:03:43 -05:00
AGENTS.md initial 2026-03-28 11:28:47 -05:00
algo.md Draft upper-air factors section in algo.md pending backfill 2026-04-14 17:30:39 -05:00
app.json Migrate healthchecks from CHECKS to app.json 2026-04-04 11:24:56 -05:00
CLAUDE.md Move NFS share from skippy to node3 at 10.0.15.103:/data 2026-04-14 14:25:42 -05:00
Dockerfile Use NCEPLIBS-g2c v2.1.0 + enable wgrib2 PNG decoder 2026-04-14 11:06:04 -05:00
elevation.md add elevation findings 2026-03-29 16:23:03 -05:00
mix.exs Unblock CI: pull igniter into :prod for live_table compile 2026-04-12 17:58:13 -05:00
mix.lock Add live_table dep and convert /users to use it 2026-04-12 17:07:07 -05:00
prediction.md HRRR forecast hours (f00-f18) with timeline map UI 2026-03-31 16:44:47 -05:00
README.md initial 2026-03-28 11:28:47 -05:00
tail_logs.sh Add type filter to backfill enqueue 2026-04-06 11:42:26 -05:00
updates.md Update seasonal scores from sounding data, document commercial link patterns 2026-04-07 11:45:44 -05:00

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