Graham McIntire
69b5caf876
Raw features had vastly different scales (pressure ~1013, sin/cos ~[-1,1]) causing gradient explosion. Normalize all atmospheric features to ~[0,1] using known physical bounds. Add Polaris dep for optimizer.
378 lines
17 KiB
Text
378 lines
17 KiB
Text
[info] Migrations already up
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================================================================================
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PROPAGATION ANALYSIS: QSO-HRRR Correlation Study
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================================================================================
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Started: 2026-04-01 13:59:49.016617Z
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Building dataset (joining QSOs × HRRR at both endpoints)...
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[debug] QUERY OK db=3011.3ms decode=8.3ms queue=3.2ms idle=49.0ms
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SELECT
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q.id AS qso_id,
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q.band::float AS band,
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q.distance_km::float AS distance_km,
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q.qso_timestamp,
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EXTRACT(MONTH FROM q.qso_timestamp)::int AS month,
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EXTRACT(HOUR FROM q.qso_timestamp)::int AS utc_hour,
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-- Endpoint 1 atmospheric
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h1.surface_temp_c AS h1_temp,
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h1.surface_dewpoint_c AS h1_dewpoint,
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h1.surface_pressure_mb AS h1_pressure,
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h1.surface_refractivity AS h1_refractivity,
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h1.min_refractivity_gradient AS h1_gradient,
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h1.hpbl_m AS h1_hpbl,
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h1.pwat_mm AS h1_pwat,
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h1.ducting_detected AS h1_ducting,
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-- Endpoint 2 atmospheric
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h2.surface_temp_c AS h2_temp,
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h2.surface_dewpoint_c AS h2_dewpoint,
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h2.surface_pressure_mb AS h2_pressure,
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h2.surface_refractivity AS h2_refractivity,
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h2.min_refractivity_gradient AS h2_gradient,
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h2.hpbl_m AS h2_hpbl,
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h2.pwat_mm AS h2_pwat,
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h2.ducting_detected AS h2_ducting,
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-- Terrain
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tp.verdict AS terrain_verdict,
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-- Longitude for solar time
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((q.pos1->>'lng')::float + (q.pos2->>'lng')::float) / 2.0 AS avg_longitude
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FROM qsos q
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INNER JOIN hrrr_profiles h1
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ON h1.lat = ROUND((q.pos1->>'lat')::numeric * 8) / 8
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AND h1.lon = ROUND((q.pos1->>'lng')::numeric * 8) / 8
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AND h1.valid_time = date_trunc('hour', q.qso_timestamp)
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INNER JOIN hrrr_profiles h2
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ON h2.lat = ROUND((q.pos2->>'lat')::numeric * 8) / 8
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AND h2.lon = ROUND((q.pos2->>'lng')::numeric * 8) / 8
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AND h2.valid_time = date_trunc('hour', q.qso_timestamp)
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LEFT JOIN terrain_profiles tp ON tp.qso_id = q.id
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WHERE q.distance_km > 0
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AND q.distance_km < 3000
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AND q.qso_timestamp >= '2016-06-30'
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AND q.pos1 IS NOT NULL
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AND q.pos2 IS NOT NULL
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[]
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Dataset: 57248 matched QSO-HRRR rows
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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DATASET SUMMARY
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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QSOs per band:
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10 GHz: n=52846, median=191.8 km, p25=114.5 km, p75=283.9 km
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24 GHz: n=3621, median=93.1 km, p25=44.7 km, p75=135.5 km
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47 GHz: n=680, median=65.4 km, p25=22.3 km, p75=92.4 km
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75 GHz: n=94, median=23.7 km, p25=11.4 km, p75=85.8 km
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122000 MHz: n=7, median=80.2 km, p25=22.4 km, p75=139.0 km
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Terrain verdicts:
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BLOCKED: 56430
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CLEAR: 480
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FRESNEL_PARTIAL: 338
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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SPEARMAN RANK CORRELATION WITH DISTANCE (per band)
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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10 GHz (n=52846):
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Variable rho n_valid
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----------------------------------------------
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Pressure (mb) -0.1804 52846
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Month 0.1052 52846
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Dewpoint (°C) -0.0590 52846
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HPBL (m) 0.0446 52846
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PWAT (mm) -0.0390 52846
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Refractivity Gradient -0.0336 52347
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Temperature (°C) 0.0313 52846
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Surface Refractivity -0.0239 52347
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Solar Hour 0.0160 52846
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UTC Hour 0.0067 52846
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24 GHz (n=3621):
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Variable rho n_valid
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----------------------------------------------
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Dewpoint (°C) -0.3705 3621
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PWAT (mm) -0.3299 3621
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Surface Refractivity -0.3169 3582
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Month 0.2723 3621
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Solar Hour 0.1876 3621
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Temperature (°C) -0.1793 3621
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Pressure (mb) -0.1723 3621
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Refractivity Gradient -0.0746 3582
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UTC Hour 0.0557 3621
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HPBL (m) -0.0485 3621
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47 GHz (n=680):
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Variable rho n_valid
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----------------------------------------------
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Pressure (mb) -0.2305 680
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PWAT (mm) -0.2265 680
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Dewpoint (°C) -0.1809 680
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Solar Hour 0.1522 680
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Refractivity Gradient -0.1391 678
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Month 0.1105 680
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Surface Refractivity -0.1088 678
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Temperature (°C) 0.0373 680
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UTC Hour -0.0238 680
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HPBL (m) 0.0041 680
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75 GHz (n=94):
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Variable rho n_valid
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----------------------------------------------
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Dewpoint (°C) -0.7033 94
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PWAT (mm) -0.6077 94
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Temperature (°C) -0.5887 94
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Pressure (mb) -0.5695 94
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Surface Refractivity -0.5257 94
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UTC Hour -0.3919 94
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Solar Hour 0.2393 94
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HPBL (m) 0.1496 94
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Month 0.1444 94
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Refractivity Gradient -0.0821 94
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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BINNED FACTOR ANALYSIS (median distance per bin)
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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10 GHz (n=52846):
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Refractivity Gradient:
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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< -500 (strong) 0 - - -
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-500 to -300 (moderate) 202 213.7 180.3 284.5
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-300 to -200 (enhanced) 1910 176.1 99.5 271.0
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-200 to -100 (mild) 19345 193.5 116.7 297.0
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-100 to 0 (normal) 30890 192.4 112.4 278.0
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> 0 0 - - -
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Temperature (°C):
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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< 0 4 4.6 4.6 4.6
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0-10 621 172.5 95.4 246.4
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10-20 16764 184.4 112.1 276.4
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20-30 33063 195.5 119.1 290.4
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> 30 2394 178.9 98.8 299.6
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HPBL (m):
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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< 200 10779 176.5 101.8 280.3
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200-500 14670 186.6 110.1 296.4
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500-1000 17409 199.2 125.8 281.4
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1000-2000 9461 204.2 128.0 283.5
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> 2000 527 121.1 62.3 190.0
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Pressure (mb):
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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< 1005 47669 197.1 121.2 285.1
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1005-1013 3447 151.3 100.7 289.2
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1013-1020 1254 130.8 77.9 239.2
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> 1020 476 103.4 76.8 191.3
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PWAT (mm):
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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< 10 1834 160.6 96.8 265.0
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10-20 15041 193.8 125.1 280.7
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20-30 17788 218.8 129.9 295.6
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30-40 13999 173.9 106.5 289.6
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> 40 4184 155.2 84.5 256.1
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UTC Hour:
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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00-02 UTC 4171 181.8 114.6 296.0
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03-05 UTC 950 210.0 126.3 308.2
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06-08 UTC 192 196.3 72.6 273.9
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09-11 UTC 1271 171.4 83.9 278.4
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12-14 UTC 9545 184.7 108.2 297.0
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15-17 UTC 12591 203.1 112.2 285.2
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18-20 UTC 13812 196.2 119.7 274.0
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21-23 UTC 10314 188.4 129.5 281.4
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Solar Hour:
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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00-02 Solar (night) 71 218.9 75.3 274.0
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03-05 Solar (pre-dawn) 1675 183.2 83.6 273.7
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06-08 Solar (dawn) 10002 190.7 108.2 302.5
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09-11 Solar (morning) 14145 191.8 110.1 276.4
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12-14 Solar (midday) 13559 201.7 127.5 276.4
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15-17 Solar (afternoon) 9705 181.2 126.0 283.0
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18-20 Solar (evening) 3077 188.2 116.0 313.1
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21-23 Solar (night) 612 187.9 121.6 284.6
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Month:
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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Jan 0 - - -
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Feb 0 - - -
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Mar 0 - - -
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Apr 1 825.0 825.0 825.0
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May 3 682.0 662.5 696.8
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Jun 1 772.0 772.0 772.0
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Jul 4 974.5 813.5 1098.0
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Aug 26813 195.8 113.4 296.4
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Sep 26024 188.4 116.2 274.0
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Oct 0 - - -
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Nov 0 - - -
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Dec 0 - - -
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Terrain Verdict:
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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CLEAR 407 71.5 30.9 142.1
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FRESNEL_PARTIAL 284 38.6 37.9 96.1
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BLOCKED 52155 194.6 116.9 285.8
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24 GHz (n=3621):
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Refractivity Gradient:
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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< -500 (strong) 0 - - -
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-500 to -300 (moderate) 15 189.0 158.4 196.7
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-300 to -200 (enhanced) 87 109.4 72.6 203.4
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-200 to -100 (mild) 1291 98.8 56.0 136.5
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-100 to 0 (normal) 2189 87.7 41.9 130.0
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> 0 0 - - -
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Temperature (°C):
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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< 0 2 259.0 259.0 259.0
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0-10 32 93.1 61.9 93.1
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10-20 1212 104.0 60.4 139.8
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20-30 2142 86.5 41.9 131.2
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> 30 233 47.0 24.4 129.8
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HPBL (m):
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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< 200 775 85.3 47.8 134.6
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200-500 1164 102.8 43.7 146.1
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500-1000 1114 98.8 50.2 135.9
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1000-2000 500 83.7 47.5 128.0
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> 2000 68 27.9 15.9 47.7
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Pressure (mb):
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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< 1005 3289 94.3 44.7 136.0
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1005-1013 136 110.1 99.0 169.3
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1013-1020 109 48.7 13.0 88.0
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> 1020 87 65.4 17.1 89.6
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PWAT (mm):
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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< 10 206 126.1 72.1 139.2
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10-20 1031 126.1 65.5 171.8
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20-30 803 98.0 52.4 142.0
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30-40 1211 80.8 37.7 110.1
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> 40 370 44.7 28.1 88.3
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UTC Hour:
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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00-02 UTC 368 112.3 75.0 159.8
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03-05 UTC 56 156.8 96.2 200.5
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06-08 UTC 24 185.3 72.6 272.1
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09-11 UTC 134 57.3 42.6 65.5
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12-14 UTC 795 77.3 40.8 110.1
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15-17 UTC 805 93.9 40.8 129.4
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18-20 UTC 802 98.4 51.0 139.2
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21-23 UTC 637 100.4 44.7 147.3
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Solar Hour:
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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00-02 Solar (night) 2 114.1 72.9 155.4
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03-05 Solar (pre-dawn) 159 57.3 41.9 65.9
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06-08 Solar (dawn) 705 72.5 37.1 108.2
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09-11 Solar (morning) 943 96.5 42.3 131.5
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12-14 Solar (midday) 810 99.9 61.8 131.9
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15-17 Solar (afternoon) 659 107.1 44.9 162.1
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18-20 Solar (evening) 302 104.8 53.9 159.6
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21-23 Solar (night) 41 140.4 76.9 204.2
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Month:
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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Jan 0 - - -
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Feb 2 259.0 259.0 259.0
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Mar 0 - - -
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Apr 1 220.0 220.0 220.0
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May 2 242.0 224.0 260.0
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Jun 0 - - -
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Jul 0 - - -
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Aug 1932 76.9 39.5 126.0
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Sep 1684 104.3 61.9 142.0
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Oct 0 - - -
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Nov 0 - - -
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Dec 0 - - -
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Terrain Verdict:
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Bin n median p25 p75
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------------------------------------------------------------
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CLEAR 43 37.2 9.3 37.2
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FRESNEL_PARTIAL 36 68.4 43.7 93.1
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BLOCKED 3542 94.8 44.9 135.7
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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INTERACTION EFFECTS (10 GHz)
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Dataset: 52846 QSOs at 10 GHz
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1. Refractivity Gradient × Time of Day
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(strong gradient = avg < -100, weak = avg >= -100)
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Time Block Gradient n median km
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------------------------------------------------------
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00-05 UTC (night) strong 3073 204.2
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00-05 UTC (night) weak 2044 167.8
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06-11 UTC (morning) strong 700 185.6
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06-11 UTC (morning) weak 763 155.6
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12-17 UTC (afternoon) strong 9004 189.8
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12-17 UTC (afternoon) weak 12873 197.5
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18-23 UTC (evening) strong 8680 189.3
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18-23 UTC (evening) weak 15210 194.6
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2. HPBL × Season
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(shallow = avg < 500m, mid = 500-999m, deep = avg >= 1000m)
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Season HPBL n median km
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----------------------------------------------------
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Winter (Dec-Feb) shallow 0 -
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Winter (Dec-Feb) mid 0 -
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Winter (Dec-Feb) deep 0 -
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Spring (Mar-May) shallow 0 -
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Spring (Mar-May) mid 3 711.6
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Spring (Mar-May) deep 1 643.0
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Summer (Jun-Aug) shallow 12909 179.9
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Summer (Jun-Aug) mid 9221 206.9
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Summer (Jun-Aug) deep 4688 231.0
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Fall (Sep-Nov) shallow 12540 184.1
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Fall (Sep-Nov) mid 8185 194.3
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Fall (Sep-Nov) deep 5299 187.6
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3. Ducting Detection vs Distance
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Ducting YES: n=7979, median=189.0 km, p25=124.9 km, p75=296.4 km, max=986.2 km
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Ducting NO : n=44867, median=192.4 km, p25=112.4 km, p75=281.4 km, max=1264.5 km
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================================================================================
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Analysis complete: 2026-04-01 14:00:36.820405Z
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