defmodule Microwaveprop.Pskr.CalibrationSampler do @moduledoc """ Builds `Pskr.CalibrationSample` rows by joining PSKR spot density with HRRR atmospheric state and SWPC geomagnetic state at a given hour. Workflow: 1. Pull every `pskr_spots_hourly` row for the target hour. 2. Snap each row's midpoint to the propagation grid (0.125°) and bucket by `(band, snapped_lat, snapped_lon)`. 3. For each bucket, aggregate the spot stats (sum count, count distinct paths, dedup modes, median distance). 4. For each bucket, look up the nearest `hrrr_profiles` row to the midpoint at the target hour and copy the surface/refractivity fields onto the sample. HRRR is pulled in one window query and joined in-memory to keep the per-bucket cost a hashtable lookup. 5. Look up SWPC Kp once per run. 6. Bulk-upsert the result with `(hour_utc, band, midpoint_lat, midpoint_lon)` as the conflict target. The sampler is intentionally idempotent: re-running for the same hour is a no-op except for the `updated_at` bump, so the worker can safely overlap with manual reruns and the cron retry on failure. """ import Ecto.Query alias Microwaveprop.Pskr.CalibrationSample alias Microwaveprop.Pskr.SpotHourly alias Microwaveprop.Repo alias Microwaveprop.SpaceWeather alias Microwaveprop.Weather alias Microwaveprop.Weather.HrrrPointEnqueuer alias Microwaveprop.Weather.HrrrProfile require Logger @grid_step_deg 0.125 # HRRR domain is ~3 km native, so a ±0.07° (~7 km) lat/lon window # plus ±60 min reliably finds at least one profile for any CONUS # midpoint at most hours. @hrrr_lookahead_deg 0.07 @hrrr_lookahead_seconds 3600 @typep cell_key :: {band :: String.t(), lat :: float(), lon :: float()} @typedoc """ Result of a single `build_for_hour/1` pass: * `upserted` — number of `pskr_calibration_samples` rows inserted-or-updated. * `missing_hrrr_cells` — number of distinct cell midpoints whose HRRR profile was unavailable. The caller (typically `Microwaveprop.Workers.PskrCalibrationWorker`) uses this to decide whether to schedule a follow-up sampler pass after the Rust hrrr-point-worker has had time to drain the just-enqueued fetch tasks. """ @type result :: %{upserted: non_neg_integer(), missing_hrrr_cells: non_neg_integer()} @doc """ Build calibration samples for one hour. Returns `%{upserted: count, missing_hrrr_cells: count}`. Both counts are 0 when no PSKR spots were captured for that hour — for example, during PSKR client downtime. The `missing_hrrr_cells` count tells the caller whether the Rust hrrr-point-worker has work to drain after this fire. The `PskrCalibrationWorker` uses it to decide whether to schedule a follow-up sampler pass for the same hour ~10 min later, so the newly-landed HRRR data gets UPSERTed onto the samples we just wrote with NULL fields. """ @spec build_for_hour(DateTime.t()) :: result() def build_for_hour(%DateTime{} = hour_utc) do hour_utc = align_to_hour(hour_utc) spots = fetch_spots(hour_utc) if spots == [] do Logger.info("Pskr.CalibrationSampler: no spots for #{hour_utc} — skipping") %{upserted: 0, missing_hrrr_cells: 0} else hrrr_index = build_hrrr_index(hour_utc) kp = fetch_kp(hour_utc) cells = bucket_by_cell(spots) # Compute (band, lat, lon) → nearest_hrrr_or_nil ONCE. Both the # producer (enqueue_missing_hrrr) and the per-bucket sample # assembly need it, and `nearest_hrrr/3` is an O(profiles) scan; # walking the cell list twice was ~10M extra comparisons per # fire at typical sizes (~1k cells × ~5k profiles). cell_hrrr = Map.new(cells, fn {{_band, lat, lon} = key, _spots} -> {key, nearest_hrrr(lat, lon, hrrr_index)} end) missing = enqueue_missing_hrrr(cell_hrrr, hour_utc) samples = Enum.map(cells, &build_sample(&1, hour_utc, cell_hrrr, kp)) %{upserted: upsert(samples), missing_hrrr_cells: missing} end end # ── Spot fetch + cell bucketing ───────────────────────────────── defp fetch_spots(hour_utc) do Repo.all( from(s in SpotHourly, where: s.hour_utc == ^hour_utc and not is_nil(s.midpoint_lat) and not is_nil(s.midpoint_lon), select: %{ band: s.band, midpoint_lat: s.midpoint_lat, midpoint_lon: s.midpoint_lon, spot_count: s.spot_count, distance_km: s.distance_km, modes: s.modes } ) ) end defp bucket_by_cell(spots) do Enum.group_by(spots, fn s -> {s.band, snap(s.midpoint_lat), snap(s.midpoint_lon)} end) end defp snap(deg), do: Float.round(deg / @grid_step_deg) * @grid_step_deg # ── HRRR feature lookup ───────────────────────────────────────── defp build_hrrr_index(hour_utc) do time_start = DateTime.add(hour_utc, -@hrrr_lookahead_seconds, :second) time_end = DateTime.add(hour_utc, @hrrr_lookahead_seconds, :second) Repo.all( from(h in HrrrProfile, where: h.valid_time >= ^time_start and h.valid_time <= ^time_end, select: %{ lat: h.lat, lon: h.lon, surface_temp_c: h.surface_temp_c, surface_dewpoint_c: h.surface_dewpoint_c, pwat_mm: h.pwat_mm, surface_pressure_mb: h.surface_pressure_mb, min_refractivity_gradient: h.min_refractivity_gradient, hpbl_m: h.hpbl_m, ducting_detected: h.ducting_detected } ) ) end # Pick the HRRR row whose lat/lon is closest to (lat, lon). Linear # scan over the in-memory window — at the typical ~5k profile # window size and ~1k cells per hour, this is faster than 1k DB # round trips. Returns `nil` if no profile is in the window. defp nearest_hrrr(_lat, _lon, []), do: nil defp nearest_hrrr(lat, lon, profiles) do candidates = Enum.filter(profiles, fn p -> abs(p.lat - lat) <= @hrrr_lookahead_deg and abs(p.lon - lon) <= @hrrr_lookahead_deg end) case candidates do [] -> nil list -> Enum.min_by(list, fn p -> abs(p.lat - lat) + abs(p.lon - lon) end) end end # ── HRRR fetch enqueue (producer side) ────────────────────────── # For every PSKR cell that has no HRRR profile in the lookahead # window, queue a point fetch at the cell midpoint. Dedup on # `(rounded_hrrr_lat, rounded_hrrr_lon)` so multiple bands sharing # a midpoint enqueue once, and let `HrrrPointEnqueuer.enqueue/1` # union the points into the existing `hrrr_fetch_tasks` row for # this hour rather than racing to insert duplicates. # # Returns the number of unique missing-HRRR cells. The caller uses # that to decide whether a follow-up sampler pass is needed (see # `Microwaveprop.Workers.PskrCalibrationWorker`). @spec enqueue_missing_hrrr(%{cell_key() => map() | nil}, DateTime.t()) :: non_neg_integer() defp enqueue_missing_hrrr(cell_hrrr, hour_utc) do points = cell_hrrr |> Enum.flat_map(fn {_key, %{}} -> [] {{_band, lat, lon}, nil} -> [Weather.round_to_hrrr_grid(lat, lon)] end) |> Enum.uniq() case points do [] -> 0 pts -> {:ok, _} = HrrrPointEnqueuer.enqueue(%{hour_utc => pts}) Logger.info("Pskr.CalibrationSampler: enqueued #{length(pts)} HRRR points for #{hour_utc}") length(pts) end end # ── Kp lookup ─────────────────────────────────────────────────── # Single Kp value applies cluster-wide for the hour. We prefer the # integer `kp_index` (the official 3-hour Kp) and fall back to the # truncated `estimated_kp` when SWPC hasn't published the official # value yet — same precedence as `Propagation.current_kp_index/0`. defp fetch_kp(_hour_utc) do case SpaceWeather.latest_kp() do %{kp_index: kp} when is_integer(kp) -> kp %{estimated_kp: kp} when is_number(kp) -> trunc(kp) _ -> nil end end # ── Per-bucket sample assembly ────────────────────────────────── defp build_sample({{band, lat, lon} = key, cell_spots}, hour_utc, cell_hrrr, kp) do hrrr = Map.get(cell_hrrr, key) now = DateTime.truncate(DateTime.utc_now(), :second) %{ id: Ecto.UUID.generate(), hour_utc: hour_utc, band: band, midpoint_lat: lat, midpoint_lon: lon, spot_count: Enum.sum(Enum.map(cell_spots, & &1.spot_count)), distinct_paths: length(cell_spots), median_distance_km: median_distance(cell_spots), modes: dedup_modes(cell_spots), surface_temp_c: hrrr && hrrr.surface_temp_c, surface_dewpoint_c: hrrr && hrrr.surface_dewpoint_c, pwat_mm: hrrr && hrrr.pwat_mm, surface_pressure_mb: hrrr && hrrr.surface_pressure_mb, min_refractivity_gradient: hrrr && hrrr.min_refractivity_gradient, hpbl_m: hrrr && hrrr.hpbl_m, hrrr_ducting_detected: hrrr && hrrr.ducting_detected, kp_index: kp, inserted_at: now, updated_at: now } end defp median_distance(cell_spots) do cell_spots |> Enum.map(& &1.distance_km) |> Enum.reject(&is_nil/1) |> case do [] -> nil list -> sorted = Enum.sort(list) n = length(sorted) mid = div(n, 2) if rem(n, 2) == 0, do: (Enum.at(sorted, mid - 1) + Enum.at(sorted, mid)) / 2, else: Enum.at(sorted, mid) end end defp dedup_modes(cell_spots) do cell_spots |> Enum.flat_map(& &1.modes) |> Enum.uniq() end # ── Upsert ────────────────────────────────────────────────────── defp upsert([]), do: 0 defp upsert(samples) do {count, _} = Repo.insert_all(CalibrationSample, samples, on_conflict: from(c in CalibrationSample, update: [ set: [ spot_count: fragment("EXCLUDED.spot_count"), distinct_paths: fragment("EXCLUDED.distinct_paths"), median_distance_km: fragment("EXCLUDED.median_distance_km"), modes: fragment("EXCLUDED.modes"), surface_temp_c: fragment("EXCLUDED.surface_temp_c"), surface_dewpoint_c: fragment("EXCLUDED.surface_dewpoint_c"), pwat_mm: fragment("EXCLUDED.pwat_mm"), surface_pressure_mb: fragment("EXCLUDED.surface_pressure_mb"), min_refractivity_gradient: fragment("EXCLUDED.min_refractivity_gradient"), hpbl_m: fragment("EXCLUDED.hpbl_m"), hrrr_ducting_detected: fragment("EXCLUDED.hrrr_ducting_detected"), kp_index: fragment("EXCLUDED.kp_index"), updated_at: fragment("EXCLUDED.updated_at") ] ] ), conflict_target: [:hour_utc, :band, :midpoint_lat, :midpoint_lon] ) count end defp align_to_hour(%DateTime{} = dt) do %{dt | minute: 0, second: 0, microsecond: {0, 0}} end end