[info] Migrations already up ================================================================================ PROPAGATION ANALYSIS: QSO-HRRR Correlation Study ================================================================================ Started: 2026-04-01 13:34:58.106614Z Building dataset (joining QSOs × HRRR at both endpoints)... [debug] QUERY OK db=3350.7ms decode=8.3ms queue=1.8ms idle=49.2ms SELECT q.id AS qso_id, q.band::float AS band, q.distance_km::float AS distance_km, q.qso_timestamp, EXTRACT(MONTH FROM q.qso_timestamp)::int AS month, EXTRACT(HOUR FROM q.qso_timestamp)::int AS utc_hour, -- Endpoint 1 atmospheric h1.surface_temp_c AS h1_temp, h1.surface_dewpoint_c AS h1_dewpoint, h1.surface_pressure_mb AS h1_pressure, h1.surface_refractivity AS h1_refractivity, h1.min_refractivity_gradient AS h1_gradient, h1.hpbl_m AS h1_hpbl, h1.pwat_mm AS h1_pwat, h1.ducting_detected AS h1_ducting, -- Endpoint 2 atmospheric h2.surface_temp_c AS h2_temp, h2.surface_dewpoint_c AS h2_dewpoint, h2.surface_pressure_mb AS h2_pressure, h2.surface_refractivity AS h2_refractivity, h2.min_refractivity_gradient AS h2_gradient, h2.hpbl_m AS h2_hpbl, h2.pwat_mm AS h2_pwat, h2.ducting_detected AS h2_ducting, -- Terrain tp.verdict AS terrain_verdict FROM qsos q INNER JOIN hrrr_profiles h1 ON h1.lat = ROUND((q.pos1->>'lat')::numeric * 8) / 8 AND h1.lon = ROUND((q.pos1->>'lng')::numeric * 8) / 8 AND h1.valid_time = date_trunc('hour', q.qso_timestamp) INNER JOIN hrrr_profiles h2 ON h2.lat = ROUND((q.pos2->>'lat')::numeric * 8) / 8 AND h2.lon = ROUND((q.pos2->>'lng')::numeric * 8) / 8 AND h2.valid_time = date_trunc('hour', q.qso_timestamp) LEFT JOIN terrain_profiles tp ON tp.qso_id = q.id WHERE q.distance_km > 0 AND q.distance_km < 3000 AND q.qso_timestamp >= '2016-06-30' AND q.pos1 IS NOT NULL AND q.pos2 IS NOT NULL [] Dataset: 57248 matched QSO-HRRR rows -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DATASET SUMMARY -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QSOs per band: 10 GHz: n=52846, median=191.8 km, p25=114.5 km, p75=283.9 km 24 GHz: n=3621, median=93.1 km, p25=44.7 km, p75=135.5 km 47 GHz: n=680, median=65.4 km, p25=22.3 km, p75=92.4 km 75 GHz: n=94, median=23.7 km, p25=11.4 km, p75=85.8 km 122000 MHz: n=7, median=80.2 km, p25=22.4 km, p75=139.0 km Terrain verdicts: BLOCKED: 56430 CLEAR: 480 FRESNEL_PARTIAL: 338 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPEARMAN RANK CORRELATION WITH DISTANCE (per band) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 GHz (n=52846): Variable rho n_valid ---------------------------------------------- Pressure (mb) -0.1804 52846 Month 0.1052 52846 Dewpoint (°C) -0.0590 52846 HPBL (m) 0.0446 52846 PWAT (mm) -0.0390 52846 Refractivity Gradient -0.0336 52347 Temperature (°C) 0.0313 52846 Surface Refractivity -0.0239 52347 UTC Hour 0.0067 52846 24 GHz (n=3621): Variable rho n_valid ---------------------------------------------- Dewpoint (°C) -0.3705 3621 PWAT (mm) -0.3299 3621 Surface Refractivity -0.3169 3582 Month 0.2723 3621 Temperature (°C) -0.1793 3621 Pressure (mb) -0.1723 3621 Refractivity Gradient -0.0746 3582 UTC Hour 0.0557 3621 HPBL (m) -0.0485 3621 47 GHz (n=680): Variable rho n_valid ---------------------------------------------- Pressure (mb) -0.2305 680 PWAT (mm) -0.2265 680 Dewpoint (°C) -0.1809 680 Refractivity Gradient -0.1391 678 Month 0.1105 680 Surface Refractivity -0.1088 678 Temperature (°C) 0.0373 680 UTC Hour -0.0238 680 HPBL (m) 0.0041 680 75 GHz (n=94): Variable rho n_valid ---------------------------------------------- Dewpoint (°C) -0.7033 94 PWAT (mm) -0.6077 94 Temperature (°C) -0.5887 94 Pressure (mb) -0.5695 94 Surface Refractivity -0.5257 94 UTC Hour -0.3919 94 HPBL (m) 0.1496 94 Month 0.1444 94 Refractivity Gradient -0.0821 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BINNED FACTOR ANALYSIS (median distance per bin) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 GHz (n=52846): Refractivity Gradient: Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ < -500 (strong) 0 - - - -500 to -300 (moderate) 202 213.7 180.3 284.5 -300 to -200 (enhanced) 1910 176.1 99.5 271.0 -200 to -100 (mild) 19345 193.5 116.7 297.0 -100 to 0 (normal) 30890 192.4 112.4 278.0 > 0 0 - - - Temperature (°C): Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ < 0 4 4.6 4.6 4.6 0-10 621 172.5 95.4 246.4 10-20 16764 184.4 112.1 276.4 20-30 33063 195.5 119.1 290.4 > 30 2394 178.9 98.8 299.6 HPBL (m): Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ < 200 10779 176.5 101.8 280.3 200-500 14670 186.6 110.1 296.4 500-1000 17409 199.2 125.8 281.4 1000-2000 9461 204.2 128.0 283.5 > 2000 527 121.1 62.3 190.0 Pressure (mb): Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ < 1005 47669 197.1 121.2 285.1 1005-1013 3447 151.3 100.7 289.2 1013-1020 1254 130.8 77.9 239.2 > 1020 476 103.4 76.8 191.3 PWAT (mm): Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ < 10 1834 160.6 96.8 265.0 10-20 15041 193.8 125.1 280.7 20-30 17788 218.8 129.9 295.6 30-40 13999 173.9 106.5 289.6 > 40 4184 155.2 84.5 256.1 UTC Hour: Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ 00-02 UTC 4171 181.8 114.6 296.0 03-05 UTC 950 210.0 126.3 308.2 06-08 UTC 192 196.3 72.6 273.9 09-11 UTC 1271 171.4 83.9 278.4 12-14 UTC 9545 184.7 108.2 297.0 15-17 UTC 12591 203.1 112.2 285.2 18-20 UTC 13812 196.2 119.7 274.0 21-23 UTC 10314 188.4 129.5 281.4 Month: Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ Jan 0 - - - Feb 0 - - - Mar 0 - - - Apr 1 825.0 825.0 825.0 May 3 682.0 662.5 696.8 Jun 1 772.0 772.0 772.0 Jul 4 974.5 813.5 1098.0 Aug 26813 195.8 113.4 296.4 Sep 26024 188.4 116.2 274.0 Oct 0 - - - Nov 0 - - - Dec 0 - - - Terrain Verdict: Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ CLEAR 407 71.5 30.9 142.1 FRESNEL_PARTIAL 284 38.6 37.9 96.1 BLOCKED 52155 194.6 116.9 285.8 24 GHz (n=3621): Refractivity Gradient: Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ < -500 (strong) 0 - - - -500 to -300 (moderate) 15 189.0 158.4 196.7 -300 to -200 (enhanced) 87 109.4 72.6 203.4 -200 to -100 (mild) 1291 98.8 56.0 136.5 -100 to 0 (normal) 2189 87.7 41.9 130.0 > 0 0 - - - Temperature (°C): Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ < 0 2 259.0 259.0 259.0 0-10 32 93.1 61.9 93.1 10-20 1212 104.0 60.4 139.8 20-30 2142 86.5 41.9 131.2 > 30 233 47.0 24.4 129.8 HPBL (m): Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ < 200 775 85.3 47.8 134.6 200-500 1164 102.8 43.7 146.1 500-1000 1114 98.8 50.2 135.9 1000-2000 500 83.7 47.5 128.0 > 2000 68 27.9 15.9 47.7 Pressure (mb): Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ < 1005 3289 94.3 44.7 136.0 1005-1013 136 110.1 99.0 169.3 1013-1020 109 48.7 13.0 88.0 > 1020 87 65.4 17.1 89.6 PWAT (mm): Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ < 10 206 126.1 72.1 139.2 10-20 1031 126.1 65.5 171.8 20-30 803 98.0 52.4 142.0 30-40 1211 80.8 37.7 110.1 > 40 370 44.7 28.1 88.3 UTC Hour: Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ 00-02 UTC 368 112.3 75.0 159.8 03-05 UTC 56 156.8 96.2 200.5 06-08 UTC 24 185.3 72.6 272.1 09-11 UTC 134 57.3 42.6 65.5 12-14 UTC 795 77.3 40.8 110.1 15-17 UTC 805 93.9 40.8 129.4 18-20 UTC 802 98.4 51.0 139.2 21-23 UTC 637 100.4 44.7 147.3 Month: Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ Jan 0 - - - Feb 2 259.0 259.0 259.0 Mar 0 - - - Apr 1 220.0 220.0 220.0 May 2 242.0 224.0 260.0 Jun 0 - - - Jul 0 - - - Aug 1932 76.9 39.5 126.0 Sep 1684 104.3 61.9 142.0 Oct 0 - - - Nov 0 - - - Dec 0 - - - Terrain Verdict: Bin n median p25 p75 ------------------------------------------------------------ CLEAR 43 37.2 9.3 37.2 FRESNEL_PARTIAL 36 68.4 43.7 93.1 BLOCKED 3542 94.8 44.9 135.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INTERACTION EFFECTS (10 GHz) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dataset: 52846 QSOs at 10 GHz 1. Refractivity Gradient × Time of Day (strong gradient = avg < -100, weak = avg >= -100) Time Block Gradient n median km ------------------------------------------------------ 00-05 UTC (night) strong 3073 204.2 00-05 UTC (night) weak 2044 167.8 06-11 UTC (morning) strong 700 185.6 06-11 UTC (morning) weak 763 155.6 12-17 UTC (afternoon) strong 9004 189.8 12-17 UTC (afternoon) weak 12873 197.5 18-23 UTC (evening) strong 8680 189.3 18-23 UTC (evening) weak 15210 194.6 2. HPBL × Season (shallow = avg < 500m, mid = 500-999m, deep = avg >= 1000m) Season HPBL n median km ---------------------------------------------------- Winter (Dec-Feb) shallow 0 - Winter (Dec-Feb) mid 0 - Winter (Dec-Feb) deep 0 - Spring (Mar-May) shallow 0 - Spring (Mar-May) mid 3 711.6 Spring (Mar-May) deep 1 643.0 Summer (Jun-Aug) shallow 12909 179.9 Summer (Jun-Aug) mid 9221 206.9 Summer (Jun-Aug) deep 4688 231.0 Fall (Sep-Nov) shallow 12540 184.1 Fall (Sep-Nov) mid 8185 194.3 Fall (Sep-Nov) deep 5299 187.6 3. Ducting Detection vs Distance Ducting YES: n=7979, median=189.0 km, p25=124.9 km, p75=296.4 km, max=986.2 km Ducting NO : n=44867, median=192.4 km, p25=112.4 km, p75=281.4 km, max=1264.5 km ================================================================================ Analysis complete: 2026-04-01 13:35:40.954224Z