defmodule Microwaveprop.Propagation do @moduledoc false alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.BandConfig alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.Grid alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.ProfilesFile alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.ScoreCache alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.Scorer alias Microwaveprop.Propagation.ScoresFile alias Microwaveprop.Weather.SoundingParams require Logger @ml_key :propagation_ml @ml_module Microwaveprop.Propagation.Model @doc """ Loads the ML model from disk, compiles the predict function, and caches both in persistent_term. No-op if the model file doesn't exist or ML deps unavailable. """ @spec load_ml_model() :: :ok def load_ml_model do if Code.ensure_loaded?(@ml_module) do case @ml_module.load() do {:ok, params} -> predict_fn = @ml_module.compile_predict() :persistent_term.put(@ml_key, {predict_fn, params}) Logger.info("PropagationML: model loaded and compiled") :ok :error -> Logger.info("PropagationML: no model file found, using algorithm scorer only") :ok end else Logger.info("PropagationML: ML dependencies not available") :ok end end @doc "Returns cached {predict_fn, params} tuple, or nil if not loaded." @spec ml_model() :: {function(), term()} | nil def ml_model do :persistent_term.get(@ml_key, nil) end @doc """ Score a single grid point across all bands using HRRR profile data. Uses ML model if loaded, falls back to algorithm scorer. Returns a list of %{band_mhz, score, factors} maps. """ @spec score_grid_point(map(), DateTime.t(), float(), float()) :: [%{band_mhz: non_neg_integer(), score: non_neg_integer(), factors: map()}] def score_grid_point(hrrr_profile, valid_time, latitude, longitude) do derived = derive_from_hrrr(hrrr_profile) temp_c = hrrr_profile.surface_temp_c dewpoint_c = hrrr_profile.surface_dewpoint_c # Skip points with missing or physically impossible surface data if is_nil(temp_c) or is_nil(dewpoint_c) or temp_c < -80 or temp_c > 60 or dewpoint_c < -80 or dewpoint_c > 50 do [] else score_grid_point_with_data(hrrr_profile, valid_time, temp_c, dewpoint_c, derived, latitude, longitude) end end defp score_grid_point_with_data(hrrr_profile, valid_time, temp_c, dewpoint_c, derived, latitude, longitude) do # Algorithm is the primary scorer — always used for the map score. # ML score stored in factors as :ml_score for comparison/analysis. score_with_algorithm(hrrr_profile, valid_time, temp_c, dewpoint_c, derived, latitude, longitude) end defp score_with_algorithm(hrrr_profile, valid_time, temp_c, dewpoint_c, derived, _latitude, longitude) do temp_f = Scorer.c_to_f(temp_c) dewpoint_f = Scorer.c_to_f(dewpoint_c) conditions = %{ abs_humidity: Scorer.absolute_humidity(temp_c, dewpoint_c), temp_f: temp_f, dewpoint_f: dewpoint_f, wind_speed_kts: Scorer.wind_speed_kts(hrrr_profile[:wind_u], hrrr_profile[:wind_v]), sky_cover_pct: hrrr_profile[:cloud_cover_pct], utc_hour: valid_time.hour, utc_minute: valid_time.minute, month: valid_time.month, longitude: longitude, pressure_mb: hrrr_profile.surface_pressure_mb, prev_pressure_mb: nil, rain_rate_mmhr: merged_rain_rate(hrrr_profile), min_refractivity_gradient: hrrr_profile[:native_min_gradient] || derived[:min_refractivity_gradient], bl_depth_m: hrrr_profile[:hpbl_m], pwat_mm: hrrr_profile[:pwat_mm], best_duct_band_ghz: hrrr_profile[:best_duct_freq_ghz] || hrrr_profile[:best_duct_band_ghz] } duct_info = if hrrr_profile[:duct_count] && hrrr_profile[:duct_count] > 0 do %{ duct_count: hrrr_profile[:duct_count], best_duct_freq_ghz: hrrr_profile[:best_duct_freq_ghz], max_duct_thickness_m: hrrr_profile[:max_duct_thickness_m], ducts: hrrr_profile[:ducts] || [] } end link_degradation = hrrr_profile[:commercial_link_degradation] Enum.map(BandConfig.all_bands(), fn band_config -> result = Scorer.composite_score(conditions, band_config) boosted_score = if link_degradation do Scorer.commercial_link_boost(result.score, link_degradation) else result.score end result = result |> Map.put(:score, boosted_score) |> Map.put(:band_mhz, band_config.freq_mhz) result = if link_degradation do put_in(result, [:factors, :commercial_link_degradation], link_degradation) else result end if duct_info, do: put_in(result, [:factors, :duct_info], duct_info), else: result end) end # Pick the heavier of HRRR's hourly accumulation-derived rate and NEXRAD's # reflectivity-derived rate. NEXRAD catches fast-moving convective cells that # fall between HRRR hourly analyses; HRRR catches broad stratiform rain that # NEXRAD reports as low dBZ. Taking max lets either source trigger the rain # penalty without double-counting. defp merged_rain_rate(hrrr_profile) do hrrr_rate = Scorer.precip_to_rate_mmhr(hrrr_profile[:precip_mm]) nexrad_rate = Scorer.dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr(hrrr_profile[:nexrad_max_reflectivity_dbz]) max(hrrr_rate, nexrad_rate) end @doc """ Replace every propagation score for `valid_time` with `scores`. Used by `PropagationGridWorker` on the hot path. Scores are written as binary files on disk via `ScoresFile.write!/3`, one file per band. Consumes `scores` in a single streaming pass that folds each score straight into a per-band accumulator. Previously this function ran `Enum.to_list/1` followed by `Enum.group_by/2`, which held two full copies of the ~460k-entry grid (list + grouped list) in memory at once — the hot path's largest transient spike after native-duct merge. The single-pass reduce keeps only one copy and buys back ~100 MB of headroom per forecast-hour step. """ @spec replace_scores(Enumerable.t(), DateTime.t()) :: {:ok, non_neg_integer()} | {:error, term()} def replace_scores(scores, %DateTime{} = valid_time) do {per_band, total} = Enum.reduce(scores, {%{}, 0}, fn score, {acc, count} -> {Map.update(acc, score.band_mhz, [score], &[score | &1]), count + 1} end) Enum.each(per_band, fn {band_mhz, band_scores} -> try do ScoresFile.write!(band_mhz, valid_time, band_scores) rescue e -> Logger.warning("Propagation: ScoresFile write failed for band=#{band_mhz} vt=#{valid_time}: #{inspect(e)}") end end) {:ok, total} end @doc """ Remove score files with valid_times older than 2 hours. Called on a cron by `Microwaveprop.Workers.PropagationPruneWorker`. """ @spec prune_old_scores() :: :ok def prune_old_scores do cutoff = DateTime.add(DateTime.utc_now(), -2, :hour) file_deleted = ScoresFile.prune_older_than(cutoff) profiles_deleted = ProfilesFile.prune_older_than(cutoff) if file_deleted + profiles_deleted > 0 do Logger.info( "PropagationScores: pruned #{file_deleted} old score files + " <> "#{profiles_deleted} profile files (before #{cutoff})" ) end :ok end @doc """ Returns distinct valid_times for a band, ordered ascending. Always reads from the on-disk `ScoresFile` store — the `ScoreCache` only holds whatever hours have been fetched or broadcast, which can be a partial view of what's actually on disk, so using it as the source of truth for the timeline makes new forecast hours invisible until the cache happens to catch up. Filters out times more than 1 hour in the past, but always includes the most recent valid_time so there's always data to display. """ @spec available_valid_times(non_neg_integer()) :: [DateTime.t()] def available_valid_times(band_mhz) do cutoff = DateTime.add(DateTime.utc_now(), -3600, :second) case ScoresFile.list_valid_times(band_mhz) do [] -> [] times -> filter_or_latest(times, cutoff) end end defp filter_or_latest(times, cutoff) do fresh = Enum.filter(times, fn t -> DateTime.compare(t, cutoff) != :lt end) if fresh == [] do [Enum.max(times, DateTime)] else fresh end end @doc """ Get scores for a band at a specific valid_time, optionally within a bounding box. If valid_time is nil, uses the earliest available (current analysis hour). Excludes factors for performance. """ @spec scores_at(non_neg_integer(), DateTime.t() | nil, map() | nil) :: [%{lat: float(), lon: float(), score: non_neg_integer(), valid_time: DateTime.t()}] def scores_at(band_mhz, valid_time, bounds \\ nil) do time = valid_time || earliest_valid_time(band_mhz) case time do nil -> [] _ -> scores_at_fetch(band_mhz, time, bounds) end end defp scores_at_fetch(band_mhz, time, bounds) do case ScoreCache.fetch_bounds(band_mhz, time, bounds) do {:ok, scores} -> Enum.map(scores, &Map.put(&1, :valid_time, time)) :miss -> read_from_disk_and_cache(band_mhz, time, bounds) end end @doc """ Variant of `scores_at/3` that always reads from the `.ntms` file on disk and overwrites the cache entry, rather than returning whatever the cache happens to hold. Use from update paths (the map's `propagation_updated` handler) where the underlying file has just been rewritten but the cache may still contain the previous chain's scores because of the race between `propagation:cache` fan-out and `propagation:updated` delivery. """ @spec scores_at_fresh(non_neg_integer(), DateTime.t(), map() | nil) :: [%{lat: float(), lon: float(), score: non_neg_integer(), valid_time: DateTime.t()}] def scores_at_fresh(band_mhz, %DateTime{} = valid_time, bounds \\ nil) do read_from_disk_and_cache(band_mhz, valid_time, bounds) end defp read_from_disk_and_cache(band_mhz, time, bounds) do full = ScoresFile.read_bounds(band_mhz, time) ScoreCache.put(band_mhz, time, full) full |> filter_bounds(bounds) |> Enum.map(&Map.put(&1, :valid_time, time)) end @doc """ Load the full CONUS score set for `{band_mhz, valid_time}` from the on-disk binary file and broadcast it to every `ScoreCache` in the cluster. Called from `PropagationGridWorker` after each forecast hour so all pods have a warm cache by the time clients begin requesting the new hour. """ @spec warm_cache_and_broadcast(non_neg_integer(), DateTime.t()) :: :ok def warm_cache_and_broadcast(band_mhz, valid_time) do scores = ScoresFile.read_bounds(band_mhz, valid_time) ScoreCache.broadcast_put(band_mhz, valid_time, scores) :ok end defp filter_bounds(scores, nil), do: scores defp filter_bounds(scores, %{"south" => s, "north" => n, "west" => w, "east" => e}) do Enum.filter(scores, fn %{lat: lat, lon: lon} -> lat >= s and lat <= n and lon >= w and lon <= e end) end @doc "Get the latest scores for a band (alias for scores_at with earliest valid_time)." @spec latest_scores(non_neg_integer(), map() | nil) :: [%{lat: float(), lon: float(), score: non_neg_integer(), valid_time: DateTime.t()}] def latest_scores(band_mhz, bounds \\ nil) do scores_at(band_mhz, nil, bounds) end defp earliest_valid_time(band_mhz) do case ScoresFile.list_valid_times(band_mhz) do [earliest | _] -> earliest [] -> nil end end @doc "Get scores across all forecast hours for a single grid point (for sparkline)." @spec point_forecast(non_neg_integer(), float(), float()) :: [%{valid_time: DateTime.t(), score: non_neg_integer()}] def point_forecast(band_mhz, lat, lon) do {snapped_lat, snapped_lon} = snap_to_grid(lat, lon) now = DateTime.utc_now() case ScoreCache.valid_times(band_mhz) do [] -> point_forecast_from_store(band_mhz, snapped_lat, snapped_lon, now) cached -> point_forecast_from_cache(band_mhz, snapped_lat, snapped_lon, now, cached) end end defp point_forecast_from_store(band_mhz, lat, lon, now) do band_mhz |> ScoresFile.list_valid_times() |> forecast_window(now) |> Enum.map(&point_forecast_entry(&1, band_mhz, lat, lon)) |> Enum.reject(&is_nil/1) end defp point_forecast_entry(valid_time, band_mhz, lat, lon) do case ScoresFile.read_point(band_mhz, valid_time, lat, lon) do nil -> nil score -> %{valid_time: valid_time, score: score} end end defp point_forecast_from_cache(band_mhz, lat, lon, now, cached_times) do cached_times |> forecast_window(now) |> Enum.map(fn t -> case ScoreCache.fetch_point(band_mhz, t, lat, lon) do {:ok, score} -> %{valid_time: t, score: score} :miss -> nil end end) |> Enum.reject(&is_nil/1) end # Select the set of valid_times the forecast chart should render. # Mirrors `available_valid_times`: keep everything from one hour # before now onward so the most recent analysis hour (typically # ~30–60 min behind wall clock due to HRRR publishing lag) sits at # the left edge of the chart as "now". When every hour on disk is # older than that cutoff, fall back to just the newest entry so the # chart can still render a single data point. defp forecast_window([], _now), do: [] defp forecast_window(times, now) do cutoff = DateTime.add(now, -3600, :second) filter_or_latest(times, cutoff) end defp snap_to_grid(lat, lon) do step = Grid.step() {Float.round(Float.round(lat / step) * step, 3), Float.round(Float.round(lon / step) * step, 3)} end @doc "Get the full score and factors for a specific grid point, snapped to nearest grid." @spec point_detail(non_neg_integer(), float(), float(), DateTime.t() | nil) :: %{ lat: float(), lon: float(), score: non_neg_integer(), factors: map(), valid_time: DateTime.t() } | nil def point_detail(band_mhz, lat, lon, valid_time \\ nil) do {snapped_lat, snapped_lon} = snap_to_grid(lat, lon) time = valid_time || latest_valid_time(band_mhz) case time do nil -> nil _ -> case ScoresFile.read_point(band_mhz, time, snapped_lat, snapped_lon) do nil -> nil score -> %{ lat: snapped_lat, lon: snapped_lon, score: score, factors: factors_for(band_mhz, time, snapped_lat, snapped_lon), valid_time: time } end end end # Rebuild the factor breakdown for a clicked grid cell by rescoring # the persisted HRRR profile. Forecast hours don't persist profiles # (see PropagationGridWorker.process_forecast_hour) so they just get # an empty map, which the JS popup tolerates by omitting the # breakdown block. defp factors_for(band_mhz, valid_time, lat, lon) do case ProfilesFile.read_point(valid_time, lat, lon) do nil -> %{} profile -> profile |> score_grid_point(valid_time, lat, lon) |> Enum.find(fn r -> r.band_mhz == band_mhz end) |> case do %{factors: factors} when is_map(factors) -> factors _ -> %{} end end end @doc "Get the latest valid_time across all bands." @spec latest_valid_time() :: DateTime.t() | nil def latest_valid_time do ScoresFile.latest_valid_time() end @doc "Get the latest valid_time for a specific band." @spec latest_valid_time(non_neg_integer()) :: DateTime.t() | nil def latest_valid_time(band_mhz) do case ScoresFile.list_valid_times(band_mhz) do [] -> nil times -> Enum.max(times, DateTime) end end # Prefer the persisted scalar — `hrrr_profiles` already stored this at # ingestion time and AsosAdjustmentWorker loads 92k rows per tick without # the JSONB `profile` column to avoid a Jason.decode! storm on the DB pool. defp derive_from_hrrr(%{min_refractivity_gradient: grad}) when is_number(grad) do %{min_refractivity_gradient: grad * 1.0} end defp derive_from_hrrr(%{profile: profile}) when is_list(profile) and length(profile) >= 3 do case SoundingParams.derive(profile) do nil -> %{} derived -> %{min_refractivity_gradient: derived.min_refractivity_gradient} end end defp derive_from_hrrr(_), do: %{} end