Three signal sources we already collect but weren't using:
* NEXRAD composite reflectivity → rain rate via Marshall-Palmer, taken
as max of HRRR-derived and NEXRAD-derived rate so fast convective
cells between HRRR hourly analyses can still trigger the rain penalty.
Only active on f00 — forecast hours can't see future radar. New
Scorer.dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr/1 with 5 dBZ noise floor and 150 mm/hr
hail-safe ceiling.
* hrrr_native_profiles.best_duct_band_ghz → Scorer.score_refractivity/4
applies a 1.15× boost when the cell's native-resolution duct supports
the target band's frequency. HRRR pressure-level gradients
systematically under-read thin trapping layers the native profile can
resolve. Sub-band ducts do NOT boost — they're evidence that the
gradient we have is all there is at the target frequency.
* Commercial LOS link rx_power fading → inverse tropo sensor.
Commercial.link_degradation_at/3 computes the average 7-day-baseline
vs current delta across enabled links within 75 km, ignoring links
where link_state != 1. Scorer.commercial_link_boost/2 adds +2 to +25
to the composite score for 3+ dB of fading. ~150 km radius around
DFW is the only zone this helps today, but it's the first *measured*
signal in the algorithm vs the model-derived proxies.
Also fix a latent test bug exposed by the earlier ERA5 poll-timeout
bump: era5_batch_client_test's "uncached path returns error" tests
hung for up to an hour when run with direnv's real CDS key. New
describe-level setup explicitly unsets the env var so the tests stay
hermetic.
1,359 tests, 0 failures.
Direct queries against prod (75M HRRR profiles, 16,864 soundings, 392k
surface obs, new hrrr_native_profiles table) drive these changes:
* Reinstate shallow-BL bonus as an HPBL multiplier on the refractivity
score (1.10× <200m → 0.78× ≥2000m). The Apr 11 "shallow BL bonus
removed" conclusion was an artifact of the prior matching strategy;
with the cleaner contact↔HRRR join (n=680) the binned data goes 230 km
avg at HPBL <200m vs 100 km at ≥2000m, monotonic across all bins.
* Add 6 missing bands (142, 145, 288, 322, 403, 411 GHz) so contacts in
those bands stop being silently dropped. Coefficients extrapolate
ITU-R P.676/P.838 trends from the existing 134/241 GHz entries.
* Bump ERA5 poll timeout 10 min → 1 hour and Era5MonthBatchWorker
max_attempts 3 → 5 so CDS slowness stops discarding tiles. Also dump
the full failure body when CDS omits the message field — the prior
"ERA5 job failed: nil" was masking real error reasons in oban_jobs.
* Add scripts/recalibrate_algo.py so this analysis can be re-run any
time new data lands without manual SQL. Reads PROP_PROD_DB_URL from
.envrc, drops a Markdown report into docs/algo-reports/.
* Append a dated Part 2c to algo.md documenting the corpus expansion,
the honest accounting of historical HRRR coverage (only ~1,020 of 58k
contacts are precision-matchable), and the empty era5/rtma/climatology
tables. Update the gaseous-absorption and rain-attenuation tables to
include the new bands.
Test suite: 1,335 tests, 0 failures.
IEM's RAOB endpoint stopped keeping Canadian stations current — most
stalled around Sep 2024 — which leaves a gap in refractivity/ducting
calibration over all the CW*/CY* stations already in weather_stations.
MSC's own tephi CSV is fixed-width and rendering-focused; the WMO TEMP
bulletins would need a full decoder. University of Wyoming serves the
same stations in a clean space-delimited format, is current, and
accepts the 3-letter station code (drop the leading C from Canadian
ICAO). Its output shape matches IemClient.parse_raob_json/1 exactly,
so it drops straight into Weather.upsert_sounding/2.
- New UwyoSoundingClient with URL builder, Req-based fetch_sounding,
and a fixed-width parse_sounding_html that extracts PRES/HGHT/TEMP/
DWPT/DRCT/SKNT from the <PRE> block and DateTime from the <H2> header.
- New CanadianSoundingFetchWorker: Oban batch worker that finds all
sounding stations whose code starts with C, picks the most recently
publishable 00Z or 12Z slot (90 min publish delay), calls UWYO per
station, and upserts with SoundingParams-derived refractivity/
ducting fields.
- Oban cron at 01:30Z and 13:30Z (dev + prod) to drive the worker.
- Req.Test plug wiring in config/test.exs.
- Captured Goose Bay fixture as test/support/fixtures/uwyo_sounding_yyr.html.
Also drops two implementation plans under docs/plans/:
- 2026-04-13-rdps-vertical-profiles.md: ~2 day plan for RDPS 10 km
Canadian ducting outside HRRR's Lambert footprint.
- 2026-04-13-hrdps-canadian-prop-grid.md: ~5 day plan for the full
HRDPS 2.5 km Canadian prop grid. Explicitly recommends doing RDPS
first.
TDD throughout, 19 new tests, 1318/1318 passing, credo strict clean.
warm_grid_cache_and_broadcast was re-SELECTing 92k hrrr_profiles rows
with JSONB profile/duct_characteristics columns on every forecast hour.
Row decoding exceeded the 15s default DB connection timeout, killing
the worker before f01-f18 could run. Oban retried from f00 and got
stuck in a loop: for the last several hours, no forecast hours were
being written and even f00 was stale.
Build the weather cache rows directly from the in-memory grid_data
the worker already has (Weather.build_grid_cache_rows/2) and
GridCache.broadcast_put directly. No DB round trip, no JSONB decode.
Also widen the cron from hourly to every 3 hours so a full f00-f18
sweep (~95 min) can actually complete before the next run starts,
and drop the redundant prune_old_scores() at worker start
(PropagationPruneWorker already runs every 15 min). Add a 60s query
timeout to load_weather_grid_from_db as defense-in-depth for the
cold-cache fill path that still uses it.
MRMS
----
Layer the NOAA MRMS PrecipRate product onto the score grid so rain fade
updates every 2 minutes instead of every hour alongside HRRR. New modules:
- Microwaveprop.Weather.MrmsClient: fetches the latest .grib2.gz off the
NCEP mirror (Req auto-decompresses so no gunzip step), writes the raw
GRIB2 to a temp file, and calls the existing wgrib2 wrapper with the
0.125 propagation grid spec to get interpolated cells. Returns a
%{{lat, lon} => mm_per_hour} map with missing-value sentinels dropped.
- Microwaveprop.Weather.MrmsCache: ETS-backed GenServer mirroring
ScoreCache/GridCache. Caches a single "current" entry keyed by
valid_time with PubSub broadcast so peer nodes stay in sync and only
the Oban leader pays the fetch + regrid cost.
- Microwaveprop.Workers.MrmsFetchWorker: cron every 2 minutes, short-
circuits when the cached valid_time already matches the newest file.
Microwaveprop.Propagation.AsosNudge.compute/4 now takes an optional
rain_grid. When a cell has MRMS rain >= 0.1 mm/hr it gets patched onto
the HRRR profile's `precip_mm` field (the scorer already reads it there)
and the cell is re-scored even with no ASOS station nearby. Cells with
MRMS rain below the threshold aren't touched so dry cells keep their
raw HRRR scores (which have the wind/sky/native-gradient signal that
isn't persisted on HrrrProfile rows and would otherwise be lost).
AsosAdjustmentWorker pulls MrmsCache on every tick and passes the grid
through to AsosNudge.compute/4. Also skips the IemClient error branch
that can never happen and handles the ASOS-empty + MRMS-empty case
explicitly. MrmsCache wired into the supervision tree; MrmsFetchWorker
cron entry added to config.exs and dev.exs.
Four new AsosNudge cases cover MRMS-only re-scoring, threshold gating,
and the wet/dry score delta.
Beacons 500
-----------
Beacon.format_freq/1 and format_mw/1 crashed on whole-number floats
(e.g. 24192.0) because `frac == 0.0` could become false under float
rounding while `trim_trailing_zeros/1` stripped the decimal point,
leaving a 1-element list that couldn't be destructured as [_, frac].
Shared format_number/1 helper handles integer input directly and
pattern-matches both the "int-only" and "int + frac" shapes.
Added stream_data property tests covering the whole microwave range for
both integers and floats to catch this class of bug before prod.
UTC clock flash
---------------
The /weather and /map UTC clocks were empty until the JS hook mounted
post-WebSocket, producing a several-second blank spot on initial load
and a clobber risk on sidebar re-renders. Mount now computes a
server-rendered `initial_utc_clock` string and the template seeds the
element with that plus `phx-update="ignore"` so LiveView morphdom won't
overwrite what the hook writes.
Adds Microwaveprop.Propagation.AsosNudge: a pure IDW bias-field module
that takes ASOS observations + HRRR profiles and returns re-scored grid
rows for every cell within 250km of a reporting station. Upper-air
fields (min_refractivity_gradient, pwat_mm, hpbl_m, profile, duct
metadata) pass through unchanged so HRRR's signal isn't clobbered.
The old AsosAdjustmentWorker was unwired and buggy — nil'd out ~22% of
the scoring weight and wrote orphan timestamps. Replaced with a slim
worker that queries the latest HRRR valid_time, fetches live ASOS
currents, calls AsosNudge.compute/3, and upserts onto
(lat, lon, valid_time, band_mhz) so nudged values overwrite the HRRR
hour cleanly instead of polluting available_valid_times. After each
upsert it warms ScoreCache and broadcasts propagation:updated so live
/map clients refresh.
Cron hooked up every 10 minutes in config.exs and dev.exs. Also cleaned
up the stale "dev has propagation disabled" note in CLAUDE.md.
13 new AsosNudge unit tests cover: residual computation (co-located,
out-of-grid, nil fields), IDW weighting (single station, far station,
two equidistant stations, nil component handling), upper-air
preservation, and the compute/3 entry point's shape and radius filter.
Drive-by Styler formatting touched a handful of unrelated files from
`mix format`.
- Add Weather.GridCache: ETS cache of derived HRRR grid rows keyed by
valid_time, cluster-synced via PubSub. Eagerly warmed from
PropagationGridWorker after each upsert so /weather map pan/zoom and
weather_point_detail hit zero DB on warm cache.
- Replace latest_weather_grid DB query path with cache-first lookup +
DB fallback. hrrr_profiles is 42M rows partitioned; pulling 3-10k
rows per viewport on every pan was the main cost.
- ContactLive.Show: defer the heavy enrichment loads (weather, solar,
HRRR, terrain, IEMRE, elevation profile, ITU-R propagation analysis,
data_sources) into a handle_info(:hydrate) that runs after the shell
renders. Initial mount now returns nil placeholders; template already
had :if guards for all of them. Shell-to-first-paint goes from
~500ms-2s down to ~20ms.
- Cache fetch_queue_counts for 5s in ContactLive.Show — oban_jobs group
by query was running on every contact page view.
- Backfill stats: wrap count_unprocessed, fetch_stats, fetch_db_stats
in Microwaveprop.Cache with 2-5s TTLs; bump refresh debounce from 1s
to 2s so bulk enrichment events don't thrash the DB.
- Add ScoreCache GenServer with node-local ETS table keyed by
{band, valid_time}, subscribed to "propagation:cache" PubSub topic so
every pod stays in sync with a single hourly compute
- scores_at/3 checks cache first, falls back to DB and populates on miss
- PropagationGridWorker warms and broadcasts the cache for each band
after every forecast hour upsert; prunes >2h old entries
- Replace per-pixel string-keyed Map with flat Int8Array over the CONUS
grid in propagation_map_hook.ts to eliminate allocations in the tile
rasterization hot loop (interpolateScore / propagationReach)
Aliases: add module aliases for 9 nested module references
Apply: replace apply/3 with direct module attribute calls
Line length: break 1 long spec line
Refactoring: extract helpers to reduce complexity and nesting
in show.ex, radio.ex, weather workers, terrain, duct detection,
backfill dashboard, contact map, and mix tasks
- Replace %Struct{} with Struct.t() in all @spec annotations
- Replace length(x) > 0 with x != [] in test assertions
- Fix multi-line spec struct references in weather.ex
The PropagationGridWorker now fetches native hybrid-sigma levels
(TMP, SPFH, HGT, PRES × 50 levels) alongside the standard surface
and pressure products. Native data provides 10-50m vertical spacing
vs 250m from pressure levels, detecting thin surface ducts invisible
to the standard product.
Key design: cell-by-cell reducer in Wgrib2.extract_grid_from_file_mapped
processes each of the 95k CONUS cells through a duct analysis function
inline, keeping only scalar metrics per cell. Peak memory ~86 MB
instead of ~1.8 GB for the full grid map.
Per-cell output: native_min_gradient, best_duct_freq_ghz,
max_duct_thickness_m, duct_count. The scorer prefers the native
gradient over the pressure-level gradient when available.
Native fetch is optional — if it fails, scoring continues with
pressure-level data only.
- Stream profile storage and score upsert instead of materializing
full 20k+ item lists (propagation_grid_worker, propagation.ex)
- GC between forecast hours and store/compute phases to reclaim
~400 MB of grid data between steps
- Single-pass field extraction in scorer.ex path_integrated_conditions
instead of 6 separate Enum traversals
- Eliminate intermediate merged map in fetch_grid by combining
merge + profile build into one pipe
- Fix UUID bug: bingenerate → generate in native grid worker
(same issue previously fixed in nexrad_worker)
Instead of holding ~530MB GRIB binary in BEAM memory, download
ranges directly to a temp file and run wgrib2 on it. Peak memory
drops from ~530MB to just HTTP chunk buffers.
Release.backtest_all, climatology, native_derive now enqueue an
AdminTaskWorker job on the new :admin queue and return immediately.
Progress visible in Oban Web at /admin/oban.
The Elixir GRIB2 decoder didn't map level type 105 (hybrid) or
variable IDs for SPFH and TKE, so native-level messages decoded as
"unknown:105:N" keys that build_native_profile couldn't find. Add
the three missing mappings to Section.identify_level/identify_var.
Also add HrrrNativeClient.extract_native_profiles/2 which uses
wgrib2's -lola on a tight bounding-box subgrid for speed (the pure
Elixir decoder takes ~70s per point on a 395 MB file; wgrib2 handles
40 points in seconds). The worker now routes through this path.
- Spike docs at docs/research/hrrr_native_levels.md confirming files
are on AWS S3 for 5+ years, 50 hybrid levels, and include TKE and
SPFH needed for Phase 2 turbulence features. Architectural finding:
per-point on-demand fetching is impractical (~530 MB/file), so
the ingestion worker batches per (date, hour) instead.
- hrrr_native_profiles schema: arrays per level plus cached surface
scalars and placeholder columns for Phase 2/4 derived fields.
Strictly additive — the existing hrrr_profiles table is untouched.
- HrrrNativeClient: pure URL/message-list helpers, build_native_profile/1
that turns a parsed wgrib2 map into the schema shape (TDD'd).
- Exposed HrrrClient.download_grib_ranges/2 so the native client
reuses the existing parallel byte-range download + disk cache.
- HrrrNativeGridWorker: Oban worker keyed on {year, month, day, hour},
unique at :infinity, pulls distinct (lat, lon) points from contacts
in the ±30 min window, downloads the native grib2, extracts per
point, bulk-upserts.
- mix hrrr_native_backfill --limit N enqueues the top-N hours by
contact count.
Phase 1 gate still pending Task 1.6 (sanity-check backtest after
live data lands).
The slow CDS submit/poll/download cycle of the month-batch worker was
sharing the era5 queue with the cheap Era5FetchWorker router, and its
2 concurrent slots were permanently pinned by long-running batch jobs
while hundreds of router jobs starved. Give the batch worker its own
era5_batch queue (also 2 concurrent per pod) so the router has
dedicated capacity.
Per-point ERA5 fetches were tragically slow because every point-hour
triggered its own asynchronous CDS job (submit → poll → assemble →
download). For backfill this meant thousands of independent jobs
queued against Copernicus. The new path groups requests by calendar
month and a 2° × 2° lat/lon tile so one CDS cycle populates ~60k
profiles at once, and Oban uniqueness on (year, month, tile_lat,
tile_lon) collapses every duplicate enqueue.
- Era5BatchClient builds the monthly CDS requests, extracts every
(lat, lon, hour) from the GRIB2 blob with wgrib2, derives
refractivity params, and bulk-inserts in 2k-row chunks with
on_conflict: :nothing. fetch_month_into_db/1 short-circuits when
the month-tile already has any cached profile.
- Era5MonthBatchWorker runs the batch on the :era5 queue with a
generous backoff (10m → 1d) and the uniqueness key above.
- Era5FetchWorker is now a thin router: cache hit → :ok, cache miss
→ enqueue the month-batch for the point's tile-month and return.
No more per-point CDS calls.
- Wgrib2 grows extract_grid_messages/3 which preserves per-message
datetimes by parsing `d=YYYYMMDDHH[MMSS]` from the inventory, so a
single GRIB2 file carrying a whole month decodes correctly.
- The era5_backfill mix task enqueues month-tile batches directly.
Pruning used to only run at the end of a successful PropagationGridWorker
pass, so a stretch of failed compute jobs (k8s OOM kills, SIGTERM)
stopped prune from running and let the table accumulate ~5h of stale
rows. A dedicated PropagationPruneWorker now runs every 15 minutes on
its own Oban cron, and PropagationGridWorker also calls prune_old_scores
at the start of each run as a second safety net. Bumped the delete
timeout from 2m to 5m so the first catch-up pass has enough headroom.
The Era5FetchWorker now declares an Oban unique constraint on
{lat, lon, valid_time} for any job in available/scheduled/executing/
retryable, so two backfill runs targeting the same contact grid point
can no longer spawn parallel CDS requests for the same hour.
Because Oban OSS insert_all doesn't honor unique, ERA5 jobs are now
routed through Oban.insert/1 from ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker and the
era5_backfill mix task. Other worker types still use insert_all.
Runs BackfillEnqueueWorker every 30 minutes to pick up contacts with
pending/queued/failed enrichment status and enqueue missing jobs.
Before enqueueing, reconciles terrain contacts stuck in "queued" by
checking the terrain_profiles FK directly.
When ASOS/RAOB/IEMRE APIs return empty data, store a stub record so
dedup checks (has_surface_observations?, has_sounding?, has_iemre_observation?)
see coverage and don't recreate the same jobs on future backfill runs.
Queued contacts just need reconciliation (check if data exists),
while pending contacts need actual HRRR fetches. Process pending
first so real work happens before reconciliation.
Backfill dashboard now has checkboxes to select which enrichment types
to process (HRRR, Weather, Terrain, IEMRE). Prevents weather jobs from
flooding the queue when only HRRR needs work.
enqueue_for_contact unconditionally marked contacts as :queued even
when no HRRR jobs were needed (profiles already exist). Workers never
updated contact status to :complete after storing profiles. Contacts
got stuck and were never re-processed.
- Mark :complete when no jobs generated (data already exists)
- Include :queued in backfill enrichable states for reconciliation
- Fix score_pressure crash on nil pressure_mb (coastal HRRR points)
- Set 10-min timeout on grid score upsert transaction (was :infinity)
- Single DELETE for prune_old_scores instead of N queries in a loop
- Remove dead load_hrrr_refractivity that loaded 95k rows into nil map
- Pass selected_time to point_detail to skip latest_valid_time sub-query
- Batch station existence checks (1 query per path point, not per station)
- Batch solar index upserts via insert_all in chunks of 500
- Batch backfill_distances via single UPDATE FROM VALUES statement
- Add is_grid_point boolean + partial index to hrrr_profiles (replaces
non-sargable modular arithmetic filter on every weather map query)
- Add partial index on contacts(qso_timestamp) WHERE pos1 IS NOT NULL
- Move backfill enqueue to Oban worker so UI returns immediately
Removed n_live_tup > 0 filter that hid tables when pg_stats reports 0 rows
during VACUUM. Added dead tuple column with warning highlight to monitor
vacuum progress. Also includes Styler reformatting and unused dep cleanup.
- Only deduplicate against active jobs (available/scheduled/executing/
retryable), not completed ones. Completed jobs no longer block new
inserts for the same args.
- Period reduced from 3600s to 300s
- Fixes contacts stuck in :queued with no actual Oban jobs
- SolarIndexWorker accepts date arg for specific date fetch
- Contact show page enqueues solar fetch when data missing
- PubSub broadcast on solar data arrival, live-updates page
- Spinner shown while fetching
- Migration renames table, column, all indexes, and FK constraints
- Contact schema now references "contacts" table
- TerrainProfile foreign key renamed from qso_id to contact_id
- All code and tests updated to use contact_id
- Radio.ensure_positions!/1 computes pos1/pos2/distance from grids
- Called in contact show page mount and enqueue_for_contact
- Migration backfills positions for existing contacts missing them
- Migration corrects enrichment statuses based on actual data presence
- Backfill dashboard includes contacts with grids but no positions
- New fields: hrrr_status, weather_status, terrain_status, iemre_status
with values: pending, queued, processing, complete, failed, unavailable
- EnrichmentStatus module defines valid state transitions
- Migration backfills: queued=true → complete, false → pending
- Workers set status on transitions (queued on enqueue, complete on finish)
- Show page reads status from contact struct, not computed dynamically
- Backfill dashboard queries status fields for accurate progress counts
- Remove cron-scheduled ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker (enrichment only on
submission, page view, or manual backfill)
- Partial indexes on status != 'complete' for fast unprocessed lookups
WeatherFetchWorker, HrrrFetchWorker, and TerrainProfileWorker now have
unique: [period: 3600] — Oban deduplicates identical jobs within 1 hour.
Repeated page loads won't queue redundant fetches.
- WeatherFetchWorker broadcasts on ASOS and RAOB completion
- Contact show page subscribes and reloads weather data on receipt
- Loading spinners for soundings and surface observations when queued
- Propagation analysis recomputed with new sounding duct data
- HRRR and terrain workers broadcast via PubSub on completion
- Contact show page subscribes and recomputes elevation profile,
propagation analysis, and HRRR data on receipt
- Page updates in-place without reload when background jobs finish
