Replaces the broken ERA5/CDS path with NCEP NARR fetched anonymously
from NCEI. NARR is GRIB1, anonymous HTTPS, byte-range-fetchable, with
1979-01-01 → 2014-10-02 coverage that lines up perfectly against the
HRRR archive start. Variables match the existing era5_profiles schema
1:1 (DPT is a direct surface dewpoint record, no SPFH derivation
needed at the surface).
Phase 1 spike done by hand: byte-range fetched 5 surface records and
3 pressure-level records for DFW 2010-06-15 12Z. wgrib2 turned out to
NOT read GRIB1 messages (rd_grib2_seq_msg, grib1 message ignored, use
wgrib), so the plan now uses cdo for both GRIB1 decoding and Lambert
conformal nearest-neighbor remap. cdo -merge is the right operator
for combining records of different variables — cdo -cat is for time
concat and silently drops mismatched levels, shell cat produces an
invalid composite. cdo emits param numbers as varNNN; mapping table
is in the plan's Architecture section.
Spike values for DFW 2010-06-15 12Z (all physically sane):
TMP_2m=296.94 K (23.8°C) DPT_2m=294.49 K (21.3°C)
HPBL=703 m PRES_sfc=99383 Pa
PWAT=45.1 mm TMP_850mb=291.52 K
HGT_850mb=1547.8 m SPFH_850mb=10.4 g/kg
Plan file kept at the original 2026-04-15-merra2-historical-backfill
filename for git history continuity even though the implementation
is NARR not MERRA-2 (history block at the top documents the pivot).
node3's NVMe SSD is the new shared-storage home. Mount the whole
/data export from 10.0.15.103 at /data inside the pod (instead of
the old skippy export of /data/srtm at /srtm) so there's room for
future shared stuff — Parquet score files, maybe a DuckDB database,
or whatever the next thing is — without re-exporting a new path.
SRTM tiles now live at /data/srtm rather than /srtm. Update the
srtm_tiles_dir runtime config to match, and fix the two doc
pointers (CLAUDE.md, duckdb plan) that referenced the old path.
Already applied to the cluster and rolled out; pods confirmed
running with tiles visible at /data/srtm.
The scoring+upsert phase was ~4m40s per forecast hour and dominated
wall time. Three stacked optimizations attack it from different
angles.
replace_scores/2 is a new hot-path writer that does DELETE WHERE
valid_time = $1 followed by a plain insert_all (no ON CONFLICT
resolution). The chain worker rewrites the full (valid_time, all
bands) slice every forecast hour, so conflict detection was pure
waste. AsosAdjustmentWorker still uses upsert_scores because it
only rewrites the subset of cells near a station.
factors is now nullable. Forecast hours f01-f18 pass factors: nil
so the JSONB encode + toast write is skipped entirely — roughly
halves the data volume per run. point_detail/4 coalesces nil to
an empty map so the JS popup renders without a TypeError, and
scorer_diff only pulls the most recent valid_time that still has
factors (the f00 row).
propagation_scores is now UNLOGGED, so inserts bypass WAL entirely.
Durability tradeoff: an unclean shutdown truncates the table, but
PropagationGridWorker rebuilds it from HRRR every 3h so a lost
table is re-populated within one cron cycle.
Also adds docs/plans/2026-04-14-duckdb-scores-storage.md — a
speculative plan for a flat-file / DuckDB rewrite with explicit
trigger conditions for when to pick it up (partitioning deferred
too; revisit only if these three don't solve it).
IEM's RAOB endpoint stopped keeping Canadian stations current — most
stalled around Sep 2024 — which leaves a gap in refractivity/ducting
calibration over all the CW*/CY* stations already in weather_stations.
MSC's own tephi CSV is fixed-width and rendering-focused; the WMO TEMP
bulletins would need a full decoder. University of Wyoming serves the
same stations in a clean space-delimited format, is current, and
accepts the 3-letter station code (drop the leading C from Canadian
ICAO). Its output shape matches IemClient.parse_raob_json/1 exactly,
so it drops straight into Weather.upsert_sounding/2.
- New UwyoSoundingClient with URL builder, Req-based fetch_sounding,
and a fixed-width parse_sounding_html that extracts PRES/HGHT/TEMP/
DWPT/DRCT/SKNT from the <PRE> block and DateTime from the <H2> header.
- New CanadianSoundingFetchWorker: Oban batch worker that finds all
sounding stations whose code starts with C, picks the most recently
publishable 00Z or 12Z slot (90 min publish delay), calls UWYO per
station, and upserts with SoundingParams-derived refractivity/
ducting fields.
- Oban cron at 01:30Z and 13:30Z (dev + prod) to drive the worker.
- Req.Test plug wiring in config/test.exs.
- Captured Goose Bay fixture as test/support/fixtures/uwyo_sounding_yyr.html.
Also drops two implementation plans under docs/plans/:
- 2026-04-13-rdps-vertical-profiles.md: ~2 day plan for RDPS 10 km
Canadian ducting outside HRRR's Lambert footprint.
- 2026-04-13-hrdps-canadian-prop-grid.md: ~5 day plan for the full
HRDPS 2.5 km Canadian prop grid. Explicitly recommends doing RDPS
first.
TDD throughout, 19 new tests, 1318/1318 passing, credo strict clean.
Registered users can suggest edits to any contact's core fields
(callsigns, grids, band, mode, timestamp). Edits enter an admin
approval queue with field-by-field diff view. On approve, changes
are applied and enrichment re-enqueued if grids/band changed.
Users receive email notification on approve or reject.
Also updates dependabot.yml for mix ecosystem.
Multi-phase plan to incorporate the meteorologist's feedback on
algo.md: hybrid-sigma vertical resolution, boundary-layer turbulence
features, ray-traced duct geometry, frontal geometry, radar-based
stability, climatological anomalies, regional seasonal tuning, and
5-minute METAR. Every phase has a backtest-gated stop criterion so
features that don't show lift against the historical QSO corpus
don't ship.
Contact scoring now uses all HRRR profiles along the path instead of
just pos1. Aggregation strategy:
- Best along path for beneficial factors (refractivity, pressure)
- Worst along path for harmful factors (rain, wind)
- Average for neutral factors (temp, dewpoint, PWAT, BL depth)
Scorer.path_integrated_conditions/2 merges multiple profiles into a
single conditions map. Falls back gracefully to single-profile scoring
when only one profile is available.
Raw features had vastly different scales (pressure ~1013, sin/cos ~[-1,1])
causing gradient explosion. Normalize all atmospheric features to ~[0,1]
using known physical bounds. Add Polaris dep for optimizer.
QSO enrichment now groups all path points by HRRR hour and creates
one batch job per hour instead of one job per point. The batch job
downloads the GRIB2 data once and extracts all needed points from
the same binary. Legacy single-point jobs are still supported for
backward compatibility.
Poll UBNT AirFiber radios (AF11X + AF60-LR) every 5 minutes via
net-snmp CLI, storing signal metrics in commercial_samples. Fetches
ASOS weather alongside each cycle for propagation correlation.
Includes 7 seeded link definitions, Oban cron worker, and net-snmp
in the Docker image.
