Replace the two-script Python pipeline (analysis report + Elixir-source
emitter) with a single `scripts/recalibrate.py` that fits per-band
weights from PSKR spot density (VHF/UHF) and contacts↔HRRR correlations
(microwave), writing `priv/algo/band_weights.json` as a machine-readable
artifact. A new Elixir BandWeights module loads this JSON once via
`:persistent_term` cache; BandConfig.weights/1 consults it before falling
back to in-source overrides or global defaults. The script never touches
Elixir source — recalibration is now `python3 scripts/recalibrate.py`
followed by an app restart.
Replaces the "tropo composite + post-hoc aurora boost" model with a
max-over-mechanisms dispatcher so each band's score reflects the
dominant propagation channel rather than summing alternative paths.
- BandConfig.mechanisms/1 derives the stack from frequency:
≤432 MHz gets [:tropo, :aurora]; >432 MHz stays [:tropo]. Bands
may override with an explicit :mechanisms field.
- Scorer.mechanism_score/3 returns a standalone integer score for
one mechanism (:tropo delegates to composite_score; :aurora is a
clean Kp/freq function, not a boost on top of tropo).
- Scorer.cell_score/2 takes max across the band's mechanisms so a
Kp-6 storm scores 6m at 85 even when the tropo picture is poor,
instead of conflating the two channels.
Es and F2 stay in PathCompute since they're path-distance-dependent.
The legacy aurora_boost path is unchanged so no callers shift today.
Refit on the current contact corpus via mix recalibrate_scorer (val loss
0.140 vs 0.146 train, initial 0.434). Mostly small adjustments — the
notable shifts are time_of_day −0.0116 (now the smallest factor) and
rain +0.0069 (continues to be the largest single weight).
Sums to 1.0 (within rounding); per-band overrides not affected.
- Unify haversine_km / deg_to_rad: Geo is the canonical home (atan2
form for antipodal stability); Radio, common_volume, rain_scatter,
ionosphere, terrain/srtm, terrain/elevation_client now delegate.
- Drop safe_min/safe_max wrappers in favor of Enum.min/max defaults.
- Move parse_float / parse_int to MicrowavepropWeb.LiveHelpers; eme,
path, and rover LiveViews import from there.
- Extract MicrowavepropWeb.LocationResolver from the eme/path
resolve_source / resolve_location duplicate. Standardize the kind
key and "Invalid grid square" error message.
- Convert Scorer cond chains (humidity, td_depression, sky, wind,
rain, pwat, pressure) to multi-clause guarded defs, matching the
existing classify_time_period style.
- extract_profile_fields uses a named map accumulator instead of a
6-tuple; build_path_conditions guards on %{temps: []} / %{dewpoints: []}.
- Collapse scores_file clamp/3 to max |> min.
- humidity_effect_label lives in BandConfig; map_live and path_live
both use it.
Ran recalibrate_algo.py against the full local prop_dev (81,994 contacts,
18.6M HRRR rows) and derived per-band composite weights for the nine
bands with >=200 matched contacts. Moisture (dewpoint/PWAT/surface N)
is consistently beneficial through 5.76 GHz, reverses at 24 GHz; rain
scales sqrt(rain_k) not linearly so 24 GHz gets 0.215 rain weight
instead of the linear-ratio 0.95. 10 GHz stays as the reference band
(defaults); 47+ GHz inherits defaults (n<200).
- BandConfig.weights/1 returns per-band override or default fallback
- @band_configs carries :weights on 222/432/902/1296/2304/3400/5760/24G
- Recalibrator.compute_factors/3 + fit(band_mhz:) band-aware fitting
- Scorer + ContactLive.Show pass band_config to weights/1
- algo.md Part 2d documents the 2026-04-18 analysis + derivation rule
- scripts/derive_band_weights.py turns correlations into weight maps
- report preserved at docs/algo-reports/2026-04-18-recalibration.md
The US 9cm amateur allocation was cut from 3300-3500 to 3300-3450 MHz
in 2020, so 3456 (the legacy weak-signal calling frequency) is no
longer in-band. Move the canonical key to 3400, migrate existing
contacts, and keep 3456 input resolving to 3400 via the
nearest-band snap so historical ADIF/CSV logs still import cleanly.
Expands submittable-contact bands to include 6m, 2m, 1.25m, and 70cm
(as 432 rather than the old 440 placeholder). Each new band gets an
explicit allocation window in BandResolver.nearest_band so ADIF FREQ
fields near the amateur allocations resolve correctly while 60-900 MHz
frequencies outside those windows are still rejected. Microwave
(>= 900 MHz) snapping is unchanged — nearest-band match across the
full @allowed_bands list.
Also adds BandConfig entries for 50 and 222 (tropo-only config, same
pattern as 144/432). Sporadic-E / F2 / meteor scatter modeling is not
yet in scope — ionosphere data is only used to compute an Es readout
on /path for 50/144/222/432.
Both bands share the physics of low microwave: humidity and refractivity
gradient build ducts the same way, and rain + gas absorption are
effectively zero at VHF/UHF. humidity_effect is :beneficial, rain_k /
rain_alpha are (0, 1), and o2_db_km / h2o_coeff are 0.
Range estimates reflect tropo reality: 2m ducts can reach 2500+ km
under exceptional conditions (e.g. documented Hawaii ↔ California
openings), 70cm a bit less. The seasonal base matches the low-microwave
summer-peak curve.
These configs do NOT capture sporadic-E, meteor scatter, or aurora —
those need ionospheric data (GIRO ionosondes, NOAA SWPC) we don't yet
ingest. The scoring on these bands is therefore "tropo-only" and will
underestimate openings driven by ionospheric modes.
Direct queries against prod (75M HRRR profiles, 16,864 soundings, 392k
surface obs, new hrrr_native_profiles table) drive these changes:
* Reinstate shallow-BL bonus as an HPBL multiplier on the refractivity
score (1.10× <200m → 0.78× ≥2000m). The Apr 11 "shallow BL bonus
removed" conclusion was an artifact of the prior matching strategy;
with the cleaner contact↔HRRR join (n=680) the binned data goes 230 km
avg at HPBL <200m vs 100 km at ≥2000m, monotonic across all bins.
* Add 6 missing bands (142, 145, 288, 322, 403, 411 GHz) so contacts in
those bands stop being silently dropped. Coefficients extrapolate
ITU-R P.676/P.838 trends from the existing 134/241 GHz entries.
* Bump ERA5 poll timeout 10 min → 1 hour and Era5MonthBatchWorker
max_attempts 3 → 5 so CDS slowness stops discarding tiles. Also dump
the full failure body when CDS omits the message field — the prior
"ERA5 job failed: nil" was masking real error reasons in oban_jobs.
* Add scripts/recalibrate_algo.py so this analysis can be re-run any
time new data lands without manual SQL. Reads PROP_PROD_DB_URL from
.envrc, drops a Markdown report into docs/algo-reports/.
* Append a dated Part 2c to algo.md documenting the corpus expansion,
the honest accounting of historical HRRR coverage (only ~1,020 of 58k
contacts are precision-matchable), and the empty era5/rtma/climatology
tables. Update the gaseous-absorption and rain-attenuation tables to
include the new bands.
Test suite: 1,335 tests, 0 failures.
New BandConfig entries for 902, 1296, 2304, 3456, 5760 MHz:
- All beneficial humidity effect (like 10 GHz)
- Near-zero gaseous absorption and rain attenuation
- Ranges: 902 MHz typical 400 km, 5760 MHz typical 220 km
- Same seasonal curves as 10 GHz (ducting-driven)
BandConfig.band_options/0 generates dropdown options from configs.
All pages (path, rover, submit) use centralized band_options instead
of hardcoded lists. Map page already used BandConfig.all_bands().
10 GHz remains the default on all pages.
Score time-of-day per grid point using longitude/15 solar offset instead of
hardcoded CST/CDT. Add PWAT as 10th scoring factor. Refine pressure thresholds.
Update ML model and training pipeline to use local solar time.
Previous thresholds (-500 to -60) were calibrated for radiosonde data.
HRRR profiles have coarser vertical resolution, with gradients clustering
between -40 and -130 N/km (median -70). Nearly all grid points were
falling through to the default score of 42, wasting the refractivity
factor. New thresholds (-200 to -40) spread across HRRR percentiles.
Single source of truth for all scoring parameters: weights, thresholds,
seasonal tables, and per-band coefficients for 8 microwave bands
(10G through 241G). Includes ITU-R P.838-3 rain attenuation
coefficients, humidity effects, refractivity scoring thresholds,
and sunrise/tier definitions.
