- HrrrClient idx-cache test only invalidated the surface idx URL, but
fetch_profile also fetches a pressure idx. Previous runs' state for
the pressure key decided whether the counter landed at 1 (prior run
cached it, pass) or 2 (cold, fail). Invalidate both + assert 2 total
fetches to reflect the actual code path.
- CsvImportTest deadlocked against other async DataCase tests when
inline Oban child jobs upserted iemre_observations/terrain_profiles
with a shared conflict target. Flip to async: false — same fix as
ContactWeatherEnqueueWorkerTest earlier this session.
- PromEx.Plugins.Oban runs a 5s telemetry_poller that queries the DB,
but its poller PID has no sandbox connection in test and crashed
with DBConnection.OwnershipError on every tick, spamming the log.
Gate the plugin on a config flag and skip it in config/test.exs;
prod behaviour unchanged.
Band-warm failures in the Rust propagation_ready pipeline were only
surfaced via Logger.warning, so Prometheus had no way to see them.
The /weather GridCache hit/miss was likewise invisible while its
/map counterpart (ScoreCache) already reported cache ratio.
- NotifyListener emits [:microwaveprop, :propagation, :notify_listener, :warm]
with %{ok, err} measurements and %{valid_time} metadata after every
propagation_ready notification. Public handle_propagation_ready/1 so
tests can exercise the warm+telemetry path without Postgrex.
- GridCache.fetch/1, fetch_bounds/2, and fetch_point/3 emit
[:microwaveprop, :weather, :grid_cache, :lookup] with a :hit | :miss
metadata key on every ETS lookup.
1. GridCache: auto-release fill lock when the claimer process crashes.
claim_fill/1 + release_fill/1 go through the GenServer so the
server can Process.monitor the caller and clean up the ETS entry
on :DOWN. Clear/0 now resets both the data table and the lock
table. Fixes a latent bug where a crashed fill leaked the lock
indefinitely, preventing every subsequent /weather mount for that
valid_time from claiming and leaving cache cold.
2. RadarFrameWorker: distinguish permanent vs transient fetch errors.
404 from the IEM n0q archive is permanent (file will never exist)
and marks contacts :unavailable as before. Any other error shape
(5xx, timeout, transport failure) now returns {:error, reason}
so Oban retries — previously those also pinned contacts at
:unavailable after a transient outage.
3. AdminTaskWorker.native_derive: replace per-row Repo.update_all
(N round-trips + N fsyncs) with one UPDATE ... FROM unnest(...)
per 2000-row batch. For the 10k-profile budget this is one
network round trip per chunk instead of 10k, and one fsync per
chunk instead of 10k. Restructured the clause to separate
derivation (pure) from persistence (I/O).
All three changes are test-covered (grid_cache_test auto-release
test, radar_frame_worker_test 5xx + transport tests, existing
admin_task_worker_test native_derive coverage exercises the new
bulk path). Also drops the scorer_diff no-op test that was
verifying the clause removed in 61da51c.
MrmsFetchWorker fired every 2 min on the :propagation queue, decoding an
MRMS PrecipRate GRIB2 into MrmsCache. Its only consumer,
AsosAdjustmentWorker, is disabled in all configs (dev / config / runtime).
Net effect: 30 GRIB2 decodes/hour of dead work on hot pods.
Removed:
- MrmsFetchWorker, MrmsClient, MrmsCache and their tests
- cron entries in config.exs, dev.exs, runtime.exs
- mrms_req_options stub in test.exs
- MrmsCache from supervision tree in application.ex
- stale MRMS references in PropagationGridWorker docstring and test
Also adds docs/plans/2026-04-19-rust-migration-phase3.md which tracks
the broader Stream A (f00 port) and Stream C (HrrrFetchWorker port)
follow-on work.
Telemetry showed the application-master process holding ~830 MiB of
terms from warm_grid_cache_from_latest_profile — the data lives in
the app master's heap and never GCs because the process is idle.
Running it in a Task.start lets the terms die with the task.
Mark GridCache, MrmsCache, NexradCache, and ScoreCache ETS tables
:compressed. The scored-band-map and HRRR grid data are map-heavy;
compression trims hundreds of MiB at a few percent CPU cost.
Memoise HRRR .idx responses in Microwaveprop.Cache. Published idx
files are immutable for a model run, but the hourly chain re-fetches
the same URL dozens of times across forecast hours. Cuts ~10s per
repeat out of hrrr_fetch_idx.
Force a garbage collect at the end of HrrrFetchWorker.perform to
reclaim the refc binary heap held from GRIB2 ranges before the Oban
producer hands the process its next job.
Two independent wins the latest prod telemetry pointed at:
1. Iowa Environmental Mesonet rate limiter. IEM throttles per source
IP across all in-flight requests, so dropping the `:weather` Oban
queue to 1/pod wasn't enough — workers were still issuing back-to-
back requests inside each job and drawing a steady stream of HTTP
429s (1,396 retryable on the queue). A GenServer-based token bucket
serialises acquire() with a 700ms min gap per pod; three pods give
~4 req/sec cluster-wide, well under the observed 429 threshold.
Wrapped around every IemClient fetch.
2. Parallel HRRR surface + pressure grid fetch. The two products live
in separate wrfsfcf / wrfprsf GRIB files, so their fetch → wgrib2
→ decode pipelines are independent; running them sequentially was
adding ~30s per forecast hour for no reason. Task.async the pair,
merge at the end. Halves per-fh wall time and should unblock some
of the missing-hour cases we saw on the 14:00Z chain.
Four changes sized by measured prod telemetry (83m of spans):
1. propagation queue: 2 → 1 slot per pod. Two concurrent forecast-hour
steps per pod stacked HRRR grid + native duct grid + scored band
map into ~5-6 GiB RSS, OOM-killing every ~15 min. 3-way parallelism
cluster-wide still finishes the chain inside the hourly interval.
2. weather queue: 3 → 1 slot per pod. ASOS backfill was 429-thrashing
IEM (1,296 retryable jobs; logs were nothing but 429 backoffs).
3. PropagationGridWorker: skip native-level duct fetch on f01..f18.
At ~7-11 min/fh and 18 forecast hours, this was the largest single
cost per chain. Forecast hours fall back to
derived[:min_refractivity_gradient] from the pressure-level
profile. f00 still gets full native-level duct analysis.
4. HrrrClient.download_grib_ranges_to_file: parallelize with
Task.async_stream (max_concurrency 8). The file-backed variant was
sequential, dominating native-duct fetch time on the remaining f00
path. ~20s → ~3s per call.
Telemetry showed ~66 PropagationGridWorker exceptions per 6h with
55 ArgumentErrors and 11 TimeoutErrors, producing ~13 discarded
chain steps. Each discard broke the chain: subsequent forecast
hours were never enqueued, leaving the score store with huge gaps
(e.g. at 14:11 UTC the earliest available forecast was 18:00,
because f00-f05 all failed somewhere upstream and nothing ran
after them).
Three changes:
1. PropagationGridWorker: on the final attempt, still enqueue
fh+1 even when this step failed. Oban discards the current
job normally — but the rest of the chain keeps running, so
one bad hour doesn't take out the remaining 12-18. The
rescue is factored into a tested public helper.
2. HrrrClient.parse_idx: skip malformed idx lines instead of
raising. NOAA S3 occasionally serves an HTML error page as
the idx body, and the old strict String.to_integer path
raised ArgumentError on the first non-numeric line and took
down the chain step. This is the root cause of the 55
ArgumentErrors.
3. JS renderTimeline: when no forecast hour is at-or-before
wall-clock (all times are future — the gap scenario the
fixes above are designed to prevent), stop labeling the
earliest future slot "Now". Lets the user see honest
"+Nh" offsets instead of a lie on the pill.
Telemetry puts nexrad_decode_png at 1.76 s/call × 37,847 calls/h
— ~18.5 h of CPU across the cluster every real hour, the single
biggest CPU consumer in the system. The map-click path
(fetch_rain_cells) already cached decoded frames by 5-min
bucket, but the per-contact CommonVolumeRadarWorker path
(fetch_decoded_frame) went straight to network + decode on every
call. Backfill means many contacts share a 5-min window, so the
same 66 MB frame was being decoded dozens of times.
Wire fetch_decoded_frame through NexradCache keyed on the
rounded timestamp. Add a 20-entry size cap in NexradCache so
backfill processing contacts in random timestamp order can't
grow the ETS table to hundreds of GB. Each frame is ~66 MB, so
20 = ~1.3 GB worst case, well under typical pod memory.
Expected impact: cuts sustained decode load by an order of
magnitude depending on backfill temporal locality; map-click
path is unchanged.
Wires the GEFS fetch pipeline into the existing scoring machinery:
- GefsFetchWorker runs Propagation.score_grid_point over every
fetched grid cell and persists the result via replace_scores/2, so
Day 2-7 valid_times show up on the map through the same
Propagation.scores_at/3 path HRRR uses
- Empty-args perform/1 seeds the chain by enqueueing f024-f168 (25
jobs at 6-hour cadence) for the most recent GEFS run that should
be published given NOMADS' ~3-4h publication lag
- Cron: seeds at 05:30, 11:30, 17:30, 23:30 UTC — 5 hours after each
00/06/12/18Z run
- GefsClient.build_profile now emits :wind_u / :wind_v atom keys to
match the scorer's input shape; DB columns keep the *_mps suffix
for unit clarity, remapped at write time
GEFS pgrb2a lacks HPBL, native-level duct data, NEXRAD, and
commercial-link degradation — the extended-horizon score is a
rougher signal than the HRRR-driven one but covers the window HRRR
can't reach.
- GefsClient.build_profile/1: converts raw wgrib2 output into the
scorer-shaped profile, deriving Td from RH via Magnus at both the
surface and each pressure level
- GefsClient.fetch_grid_profiles/3: downloads the idx sidecar from
NOMADS, byte-ranges only the surface messages, hands the slim
GRIB2 binary to wgrib2 -lola for bilinear regridding from 0.5°
onto the CONUS 0.125° grid
- GefsFetchWorker: one Oban job per (run_time, forecast_hour),
upserts into gefs_profiles and runs SoundingParams.derive so the
same refractivity/ducting metrics flow through
Oban gets a new :gefs queue (2 slots dev/config, 1 slot per prod
pod). Test env gets a gefs_req_options Req.Test stub slot so future
integration tests can drive the full fetch path. No cron wiring or
scorer integration yet — that's Step 3.
Lays the groundwork for a Day 2-7 propagation outlook driven by NCEP
GEFS ensemble-mean output, picking up where HRRR's 18-hour horizon
leaves off.
- GefsClient: NOMADS URL builder, forecast-hour list (3h to +240,
6h to +384), ensemble-mean message inventory, and a Magnus
dewpoint derivation (pgrb2a publishes RH rather than Td)
- gefs_profiles table + GefsProfile schema mirroring hrrr_profiles
so the scorer can run over rows from either source
- Weather.upsert_gefs_profile/1 and upsert_gefs_profiles_batch/1
No worker or UI yet — those land in follow-up commits.
parse_cdo_row/1 assumed cdo -outputtab,code,lev,value would always emit
numeric codes in the first column, but Debian's cdo 2.5.1 (the version
in the prod container) emits mixed output:
- 'codeNN' with a literal 'code' prefix for most GRIB1 parameters
- Short GRIB1 names for a few: 2tag2 (PRES sfc), saip (DPT 2m),
tpag10 (HGT)
Result: every row fell through to :error, yielding a 'no parseable
values' error and 986 discarded NarrFetchWorker jobs.
Fix: normalize the code token by stripping 'code' prefix when present
and mapping known 2.5.1 short names. UGRD/VGRD intentionally omitted
(no discard evidence yet) — comment documents the add-when-they-surface
plan.
Also exposed parse_cdo_outputtab/1 as @doc false for testability.
build_messages_per_message/3 was slicing the wgrib2 -lola bin output as
a packed float32 stream, ignoring the 4-byte record-length header + 4-byte
trailer that Fortran unformatted records prepend/append around each
message's data block. First value of message 0 came back as ~2.24e-44
(little-endian float32 of the int-16 record length), and every subsequent
message was shifted by 8 bytes so values spilled into neighbouring cells.
Fix: propagate the correct offset math already used by parse_lola_binary/3
(record_overhead = 8, stride = bytes_per_message + 8, data_offset =
msg_idx * stride + 4).
Flipped the characterization test from metadata-only to per-cell physical
asserts (200 K < TMP, DPT < 340 K; DPT <= TMP) and a 0.01 K cross-check
against extract_grid/3 output on the same fixture + bbox. Latent bug —
no production callers of extract_grid_messages*.
16 characterization tests against real wgrib2 binary + checked-in HRRR
fixtures: extract_grid/3 (bbox + physical sanity on TMP/DPT + longitude
convention), extract_grid_from_file/3, extract_grid_from_file_mapped/4
reducer plumbing, extract_grid_messages/3 metadata, extract_points_from_file/3
nearest-neighbor snap, undefined-value sentinel filtering, empty-match and
error shapes. Tagged @describetag :slow so they run on 'mix test --include
slow' (project default excludes slow, matches existing HRRR/NARR tests).
Surfaces one real bug (not fixed): extract_grid_messages variants don't
account for the 8-byte Fortran record overhead between messages in wgrib2
-lola output, so per-message values after the first are shifted. The
correct offset math exists in parse_lola_binary/3. Tests characterize
current behavior (metadata-only); worth a follow-up fix + value-range
assertions.
Same fix as rtma_client: MrmsClient had a hardcoded req_options/0 —
switched to a Keyword.merge with Application.get_env so tests can stub
HTTP. 13 new characterization tests: cache put/get/clear/broadcast and
worker listing/download/up-to-date paths. Full GRIB2 parse happy path
deferred to the wgrib2 coverage task.
RtmaClient was the only weather client without a Req.Test plug seam —
added the standard req_options() helper matching NarrClient/HrrrClient/
etc. so its HTTP calls can be stubbed in test.
17 characterization tests: URL construction, idx fetch 404/503, hour
truncation, malformed idx, range-GET error propagation, worker's
existing-row short-circuit, client-error propagation. GRIB2 byte
parsing paths deferred to the wgrib2 coverage task.
Post-2014 contacts with hrrr_status=:unavailable were being dispatched to
NARR, which 404s because NCEI's archive ends 2014-10-02. 14K of the 14.3K
candidates in prod are post-2014 — these are HRRR's responsibility.
- NarrClient.in_coverage?/1 returns true only inside 1979-01-01 → 2014-10-02
- narr_jobs_for_contact and maybe_enqueue_narr (contact_live) bail out of
coverage returning []
- BackfillEnqueueWorker.type_filter scopes :narr to qso_timestamp <
coverage_end so the cron doesn't keep picking post-2014 candidates
After the NARR backfill landed, nothing reachable from the app calls
any of these modules. Net removal: ~2700 lines.
Deleted:
- Microwaveprop.Workers.{Era5Fetch,Era5Submit,Era5Poll,Era5MonthBatch}Worker
- Microwaveprop.Weather.{Era5BatchClient,Era5Client}
- Mix.Tasks.Era5Backfill (superseded by BackfillEnqueueWorker cron)
- Matching test files (~1100 LOC of test)
- era5/era5_submit/era5_poll/era5_batch queue blocks from runtime.exs
- era5_req_options Req.Test stub config from test.exs
Kept (actively used or intentionally preserved):
- Era5Profile schema (the era5_profiles table is the NARR target)
- Era5CdsJob schema + its test (inspection handle on the era5_cds_jobs
table, which retains rows from the failed CDS runs)
- :era5 type key in ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker / BackfillEnqueueWorker
(the symbol still means "historical backfill", just routed to NARR now)
Swapped the one remaining live Era5FetchWorker call site in
contact_live/show.ex's maybe_enqueue_era5 path to NarrFetchWorker
(with NarrClient.snap_to_analysis_hour for the 3-hourly slot).
Test suite: 1513 tests, 0 failures (-50 from the deleted era5 test
files). No compile warnings. Credo clean.
extract_profile_from_file shells out to cdo:
cdo -outputtab,name,lev,value -remapnn,lon=X_lat=Y <merged.grb>
parses the text output (varNNN ↔ NCEP GRIB1 param number lookup),
maps surface records to era5_profiles fields, builds the pressure
profile from each (TMP, HGT, SPFH) triple, and merges in the derived
fields from SoundingParams.derive/1. Returns the same attrs shape as
Era5BatchClient.build_profile_attrs/5 so the existing
bulk_insert_profiles path can ingest NARR rows unchanged.
fetch_profile_at picks records from a fetched inventory, byte-range
fetches each one into a per-record temp file, runs cdo -merge to build
a composite, calls extract_profile_from_file, and cleans up via
try/after.
Drive-by fix: ThetaE.dewpoint_from_spfh/2 returns Kelvin (its existing
test asserts that explicitly). Era5BatchClient was passing that
Kelvin value straight into "dwpc" (Celsius), which would then crash
SoundingParams.compute_refractivity_profile when it called Buck's
saturation-vapor-pressure equation with t=294 instead of t=21. The
bug never surfaced because era5_profiles is empty in production —
no ERA5 backfill has ever succeeded. Fixed in both era5_batch_client
and the new narr_client by subtracting 273.15 in the wrapper. Both
wrappers now have a comment pointing at the K→C conversion.
Test fixture test/fixtures/narr/narr_dfw_2010-06-15_12z.grb is the
spike-captured composite (1.1 MB — Lambert conformal projection
isn't sellonlatbox-subsettable so we can't shrink it further).
parse_inventory walks the wgrib1-format .inv text and returns a
{var, level} -> {byte_offset, length} index, computing each record's
length from the next record's offset (or file_size for the last one).
fetch_inventory does a GET on the .inv URL plus a HEAD on the .grb URL
to learn its size, then delegates to parse_inventory.
Both stubbable via Req.Test (config/test.exs adds narr_req_options
matching the existing era5_req_options / giro_req_options pattern).
Spike fixture at test/fixtures/narr/narr-a_221_20100615_1200_000.inv
backs the parser test — verifies the ("TMP", "2 m above gnd") and
("WVVFLX", "atmos col") records line up with the real bytes.
First slice of the NARR backfill client: url_for/1,
url_for_inventory/1, and snap_to_analysis_hour/1. Pure functions,
no network. Validates that NARR analyses only exist at 3-hourly
slots (00/03/06/09/12/15/18/21 UTC). The byte-range fetch and
cdo-driven point extraction land in follow-up commits per
docs/plans/2026-04-15-merra2-historical-backfill.md.
The skew-T commit (30c1018) doubled @pressure_levels from 13 to 25 so
new contact fetches would cover the full troposphere. That list is
also what PropagationGridWorker pulls per forecast hour, which
doubled the GRIB footprint (~57 MB compressed + 92k points × 25
levels × 3 vars decoded through wgrib2) and pushed prod pods over
their 4 Gi OOMKill threshold. Every chain died during f00 and the
map timeline never got beyond now and now+1h because the .ntms files
for f02-f18 were never written.
Split the constant:
* @profile_pressure_levels (25 levels, 1000-100 mb) drives the
per-contact HrrrClient.fetch_profile path so the skew-T plot
keeps its full-atmosphere trace.
* @grid_pressure_levels (13 levels, 1000-700 mb) drives the grid
hot path. That's the band SoundingParams.derive reads for
min_refractivity_gradient, and native hybrid-sigma data
(native_min_gradient) takes priority over the pressure-level
fallback anyway, so upper-air levels contribute nothing to
scoring — pure memory waste on this path.
build_profile/1 still iterates the full 25-level list; grid fetches
simply populate the 13 near-surface slots and skip the rest.
Makes HrrrClient.pressure_messages public with a :grid | :profile
variant so the split is testable from outside the module.
Historical contacts showed a skew-T log-P diagram that stopped at 700 mb
because HrrrClient and Era5Client only fetched pressure-level data down
to the top of the boundary layer. The chart canvas already ran up to
100 mb, so the trace clipped mid-atmosphere.
Two complementary fixes:
1. Extend @pressure_levels in HrrrClient and Era5Client with
650/600/550/500/450/400/350/300/250/200/150/100 mb so new fetches
cover the full troposphere + lower stratosphere.
2. Prefer the native hybrid-sigma profile for the contact-detail
skew-T when one has been backfilled for the contact's hour. The
native profile already stores all 50 hybrid levels up to ~19 km,
so historical contacts covered by the native backfill get a full
trace without re-hitting S3. A new HrrrNativeProfile.to_skew_t_profile/1
converts the parallel arrays into the %{"pres","tmpc","dwpc","hght"}
list shape the renderer expects, deriving dewpoint from SPFH via the
Magnus inverse. Weather.find_nearest_native_profile/3 mirrors
find_nearest_hrrr/3 for the lookup.
CDS returns status="rejected" (distinct from "failed") when a submit
is rate-limited past the 150-job per-user cap. The poll worker's
interpret_status_body treated this as an unknown status → generic
retryable error → 10 retries → discarded. 102 jobs hit this path
overnight.
Fix:
* Era5Client.check_status/1 now returns {:rejected, reason} (and
treats "dismissed" the same way — that's the status a manually
deleted job transitions to).
* Era5PollWorker handles :rejected exactly like :not_found: drop the
DB row, clean up the sibling CDS job, re-enqueue the submit, and
discard the current Oban job so it doesn't burn attempts retrying
a terminal state.
* Widened Era5SubmitWorker cap headroom from 10 → 30 (effective
ceiling 120 not 140). The race between concurrent workers all
passing the count check simultaneously meant we were reaching 141
in-flight against the 150 hard cap; 30 slots of headroom tolerates
a ~15-worker race before clipping CDS's ceiling.
Refactored handle_row/1 into handle_row + handle_non_both_done with a
leg_outcome/1 tag helper so the cross-product of leg statuses collapses
to a single pair match (credo complexity limit).
When CDS returns 404 for a poll check, the job is gone (manually
deleted, reaped, or never existed). Retrying will always 404, so treat
it as terminal: drop the era5_cds_jobs row, delete the sibling CDS job,
re-enqueue Era5SubmitWorker for the tile-month, and discard the Oban
poll job. Fixes 30 retryable poll jobs left behind by the interrupted
manual-cleanup script.
The single Era5MonthBatchWorker pinned an Oban slot for the full 30-45
min a CDS month-tile takes to assemble, and lost the work entirely on a
rolling deploy because the in-flight Task died with the pod. This splits
the flow into two tiny workers and persists the CDS job IDs so deploys
survive.
New pipeline:
1. Era5SubmitWorker (:era5_submit queue) — POSTs both CDS requests in
parallel, writes an `era5_cds_jobs` row with the returned job IDs,
and enqueues an Era5PollWorker scheduled +5 min. ~1s of real work.
Short-circuits when the month-tile is already cached or when a row
already exists (in-flight from a previous attempt).
2. Era5PollWorker (:era5_poll queue) — reads the row, calls
Era5Client.check_status/1 for both CDS job IDs, and:
- returns {:snooze, 300} if either job is still running (Oban
re-schedules without counting an attempt and releases the slot
immediately — a pod can keep dozens of tile-months in flight
without pinning workers)
- streams both GRIB files to disk via Req into: File.stream!,
decodes via Wgrib2.extract_grid_messages_from_file, bulk-inserts
via Era5BatchClient.decode_and_insert/6, deletes the row, and
DELETEs both completed jobs from CDS to free server-side quota
- if either leg CDS-reports failed, deletes the row + both CDS
jobs and returns {:error, reason}
Era5Client gains four testable building blocks:
submit_job/2 (bare POST → {:ok, job_id})
check_status/1 (GET → :running | {:done, src} | {:failed, reason})
download_source_to_file/3 (streams {:url, href} or writes {:body, bin})
delete_job/1 (DELETE /jobs/:id, treats 200/202/204/404 as :ok)
All Req calls now route through `era5_req_options` so tests can stub
CDS responses via Req.Test.stub(Era5Client, fn).
Era5MonthBatchWorker is retained as a thin forwarder to Era5SubmitWorker
so any jobs already in the :era5_batch queue on prod pods drain cleanly
on the next rolling deploy. Safe to delete in a follow-up.
Adds era5_cds_jobs table with a unique index on
(year, month, tile_lat, tile_lon) so duplicate submits collapse.
New queue config in runtime.exs:
era5_submit: local_limit 4, rate_limit 30/hour (burst protection)
era5_poll: local_limit 20 (polls are cheap GETs)
era5_batch: kept at 1 for legacy job drain, delete next cycle
Three signal sources we already collect but weren't using:
* NEXRAD composite reflectivity → rain rate via Marshall-Palmer, taken
as max of HRRR-derived and NEXRAD-derived rate so fast convective
cells between HRRR hourly analyses can still trigger the rain penalty.
Only active on f00 — forecast hours can't see future radar. New
Scorer.dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr/1 with 5 dBZ noise floor and 150 mm/hr
hail-safe ceiling.
* hrrr_native_profiles.best_duct_band_ghz → Scorer.score_refractivity/4
applies a 1.15× boost when the cell's native-resolution duct supports
the target band's frequency. HRRR pressure-level gradients
systematically under-read thin trapping layers the native profile can
resolve. Sub-band ducts do NOT boost — they're evidence that the
gradient we have is all there is at the target frequency.
* Commercial LOS link rx_power fading → inverse tropo sensor.
Commercial.link_degradation_at/3 computes the average 7-day-baseline
vs current delta across enabled links within 75 km, ignoring links
where link_state != 1. Scorer.commercial_link_boost/2 adds +2 to +25
to the composite score for 3+ dB of fading. ~150 km radius around
DFW is the only zone this helps today, but it's the first *measured*
signal in the algorithm vs the model-derived proxies.
Also fix a latent test bug exposed by the earlier ERA5 poll-timeout
bump: era5_batch_client_test's "uncached path returns error" tests
hung for up to an hour when run with direnv's real CDS key. New
describe-level setup explicitly unsets the env var so the tests stay
hermetic.
1,359 tests, 0 failures.
IEM's RAOB endpoint stopped keeping Canadian stations current — most
stalled around Sep 2024 — which leaves a gap in refractivity/ducting
calibration over all the CW*/CY* stations already in weather_stations.
MSC's own tephi CSV is fixed-width and rendering-focused; the WMO TEMP
bulletins would need a full decoder. University of Wyoming serves the
same stations in a clean space-delimited format, is current, and
accepts the 3-letter station code (drop the leading C from Canadian
ICAO). Its output shape matches IemClient.parse_raob_json/1 exactly,
so it drops straight into Weather.upsert_sounding/2.
- New UwyoSoundingClient with URL builder, Req-based fetch_sounding,
and a fixed-width parse_sounding_html that extracts PRES/HGHT/TEMP/
DWPT/DRCT/SKNT from the <PRE> block and DateTime from the <H2> header.
- New CanadianSoundingFetchWorker: Oban batch worker that finds all
sounding stations whose code starts with C, picks the most recently
publishable 00Z or 12Z slot (90 min publish delay), calls UWYO per
station, and upserts with SoundingParams-derived refractivity/
ducting fields.
- Oban cron at 01:30Z and 13:30Z (dev + prod) to drive the worker.
- Req.Test plug wiring in config/test.exs.
- Captured Goose Bay fixture as test/support/fixtures/uwyo_sounding_yyr.html.
Also drops two implementation plans under docs/plans/:
- 2026-04-13-rdps-vertical-profiles.md: ~2 day plan for RDPS 10 km
Canadian ducting outside HRRR's Lambert footprint.
- 2026-04-13-hrdps-canadian-prop-grid.md: ~5 day plan for the full
HRDPS 2.5 km Canadian prop grid. Explicitly recommends doing RDPS
first.
TDD throughout, 19 new tests, 1318/1318 passing, credo strict clean.
MRMS
----
Layer the NOAA MRMS PrecipRate product onto the score grid so rain fade
updates every 2 minutes instead of every hour alongside HRRR. New modules:
- Microwaveprop.Weather.MrmsClient: fetches the latest .grib2.gz off the
NCEP mirror (Req auto-decompresses so no gunzip step), writes the raw
GRIB2 to a temp file, and calls the existing wgrib2 wrapper with the
0.125 propagation grid spec to get interpolated cells. Returns a
%{{lat, lon} => mm_per_hour} map with missing-value sentinels dropped.
- Microwaveprop.Weather.MrmsCache: ETS-backed GenServer mirroring
ScoreCache/GridCache. Caches a single "current" entry keyed by
valid_time with PubSub broadcast so peer nodes stay in sync and only
the Oban leader pays the fetch + regrid cost.
- Microwaveprop.Workers.MrmsFetchWorker: cron every 2 minutes, short-
circuits when the cached valid_time already matches the newest file.
Microwaveprop.Propagation.AsosNudge.compute/4 now takes an optional
rain_grid. When a cell has MRMS rain >= 0.1 mm/hr it gets patched onto
the HRRR profile's `precip_mm` field (the scorer already reads it there)
and the cell is re-scored even with no ASOS station nearby. Cells with
MRMS rain below the threshold aren't touched so dry cells keep their
raw HRRR scores (which have the wind/sky/native-gradient signal that
isn't persisted on HrrrProfile rows and would otherwise be lost).
AsosAdjustmentWorker pulls MrmsCache on every tick and passes the grid
through to AsosNudge.compute/4. Also skips the IemClient error branch
that can never happen and handles the ASOS-empty + MRMS-empty case
explicitly. MrmsCache wired into the supervision tree; MrmsFetchWorker
cron entry added to config.exs and dev.exs.
Four new AsosNudge cases cover MRMS-only re-scoring, threshold gating,
and the wet/dry score delta.
Beacons 500
-----------
Beacon.format_freq/1 and format_mw/1 crashed on whole-number floats
(e.g. 24192.0) because `frac == 0.0` could become false under float
rounding while `trim_trailing_zeros/1` stripped the decimal point,
leaving a 1-element list that couldn't be destructured as [_, frac].
Shared format_number/1 helper handles integer input directly and
pattern-matches both the "int-only" and "int + frac" shapes.
Added stream_data property tests covering the whole microwave range for
both integers and floats to catch this class of bug before prod.
UTC clock flash
---------------
The /weather and /map UTC clocks were empty until the JS hook mounted
post-WebSocket, producing a several-second blank spot on initial load
and a clobber risk on sidebar re-renders. Mount now computes a
server-rendered `initial_utc_clock` string and the template seeds the
element with that plus `phx-update="ignore"` so LiveView morphdom won't
overwrite what the hook writes.
- Add Weather.GridCache: ETS cache of derived HRRR grid rows keyed by
valid_time, cluster-synced via PubSub. Eagerly warmed from
PropagationGridWorker after each upsert so /weather map pan/zoom and
weather_point_detail hit zero DB on warm cache.
- Replace latest_weather_grid DB query path with cache-first lookup +
DB fallback. hrrr_profiles is 42M rows partitioned; pulling 3-10k
rows per viewport on every pan was the main cost.
- ContactLive.Show: defer the heavy enrichment loads (weather, solar,
HRRR, terrain, IEMRE, elevation profile, ITU-R propagation analysis,
data_sources) into a handle_info(:hydrate) that runs after the shell
renders. Initial mount now returns nil placeholders; template already
had :if guards for all of them. Shell-to-first-paint goes from
~500ms-2s down to ~20ms.
- Cache fetch_queue_counts for 5s in ContactLive.Show — oban_jobs group
by query was running on every contact page view.
- Backfill stats: wrap count_unprocessed, fetch_stats, fetch_db_stats
in Microwaveprop.Cache with 2-5s TTLs; bump refresh debounce from 1s
to 2s so bulk enrichment events don't thrash the DB.
- ScoreCache stores {band, valid_time} as %{{lat, lon} => score} map so
point lookups are O(1); adds fetch_point/4 and valid_times/1
- available_valid_times/1 reads directly from ScoreCache when warm,
falls back to DB on cold start
- point_forecast/3 iterates cached valid_times and uses fetch_point/4
instead of hitting the DB per click
- NexradCache: node-local ETS cache of decoded n0q PNG pixel buffers
keyed by 5-minute rounded timestamp; skips ~1-5s HTTP+decode on
concurrent/repeat clicks within the same window
- MapLive: start_async the rain_scatter fetch so point_detail renders
immediately with a pending marker; push rain_scatter_update when
NEXRAD resolves
- MapLive: preload all 18 remaining forecast hours for the current
viewport after mount/band change/propagation_updated; client caches
them and renders timeline scrubs instantly without a server roundtrip.
Adds set_selected_time event for fast-path state sync.
- Propagation map JS: forecastCache map + drawScatterMarkers helper,
timeline click uses preloaded cache when available
Aliases: add module aliases for 9 nested module references
Apply: replace apply/3 with direct module attribute calls
Line length: break 1 long spec line
Refactoring: extract helpers to reduce complexity and nesting
in show.ex, radio.ex, weather workers, terrain, duct detection,
backfill dashboard, contact map, and mix tasks
- Replace %Struct{} with Struct.t() in all @spec annotations
- Replace length(x) > 0 with x != [] in test assertions
- Fix multi-line spec struct references in weather.ex
FrontalAnalysis module (Weather.FrontalAnalysis):
- detect_fronts/3 computes the Thermal Front Parameter (TFP) from
2D grids of surface temperature and pressure using Nx vectorized
ops. TFP = -nabla|nabla(theta)| . nabla(theta)/|nabla(theta)|.
Most negative values mark cold fronts.
- central_gradient/1 for 2D finite differences with edge handling
- nearest_front/3 finds closest front point with distance and bearing
- path_front_angle/2 computes angle between a QSO path and the
front (0 = parallel = good, 90 = crosses = dead)
Backtest feature stubs for distance_to_front and parallel_to_front
(return nil until the pipeline caches per-cell frontal features from
the hourly HRRR grid run). The FrontalAnalysis module itself is
tested and ready for integration.
NEXRAD spike docs also included in this commit.
NCEI ASOS 5-minute data client (Weather.NceiMetarClient):
- fetch/3 pulls per-station monthly .dat files from NCEI C00418
- parse/1 decodes the fixed-width METAR format including precise
T-group temperatures (T02110094 → 21.1/9.4°C)
- metar_5min_observations table: schema-identical to
surface_observations, separate table to avoid mixing cadences
Weather.recent_surface_obs/3 prefers 5-min data when available,
falls back to the hourly surface_observations table.
Data URL: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/automated-surface-observing-system-five-minute/access/YYYY/MM/asos-5min-KXXX-YYYYMM.dat
Available back to 1996.
Inversion detection module (Propagation.Inversion):
- find_inversion_top/1 walks the native profile to locate the first
temperature inversion (surface-based or elevated)
- bulk_richardson/3 computes the Richardson number across the
inversion layer (Ri < 0.25 = turbulent, > 1 = laminar/good)
- shear_magnitude/3 computes the wind shear vector magnitude
- potential_temperature/2 for θ = T*(P0/P)^0.286
Theta-e module (Weather.ThetaE):
- Bolton (1980) equivalent potential temperature
- dewpoint_from_spfh/2 via Magnus-Tetens inversion
- theta_e_jump/3 for the thermodynamic decoupling metric
mix hrrr_native_derive_fields populates inversion_top_m,
bulk_richardson, theta_e_jump_k, and shear_at_top_ms on existing
hrrr_native_profiles rows.
First real data: 2022-08-20 12Z TX profile shows inversion at
186 m, Ri = 0.16 (turbulent), θ_e jump = 0.33 K — consistent with
marginal propagation conditions at that hour.
- Spike docs at docs/research/hrrr_native_levels.md confirming files
are on AWS S3 for 5+ years, 50 hybrid levels, and include TKE and
SPFH needed for Phase 2 turbulence features. Architectural finding:
per-point on-demand fetching is impractical (~530 MB/file), so
the ingestion worker batches per (date, hour) instead.
- hrrr_native_profiles schema: arrays per level plus cached surface
scalars and placeholder columns for Phase 2/4 derived fields.
Strictly additive — the existing hrrr_profiles table is untouched.
- HrrrNativeClient: pure URL/message-list helpers, build_native_profile/1
that turns a parsed wgrib2 map into the schema shape (TDD'd).
- Exposed HrrrClient.download_grib_ranges/2 so the native client
reuses the existing parallel byte-range download + disk cache.
- HrrrNativeGridWorker: Oban worker keyed on {year, month, day, hour},
unique at :infinity, pulls distinct (lat, lon) points from contacts
in the ±30 min window, downloads the native grib2, extracts per
point, bulk-upserts.
- mix hrrr_native_backfill --limit N enqueues the top-N hours by
contact count.
Phase 1 gate still pending Task 1.6 (sanity-check backtest after
live data lands).
Per-point ERA5 fetches were tragically slow because every point-hour
triggered its own asynchronous CDS job (submit → poll → assemble →
download). For backfill this meant thousands of independent jobs
queued against Copernicus. The new path groups requests by calendar
month and a 2° × 2° lat/lon tile so one CDS cycle populates ~60k
profiles at once, and Oban uniqueness on (year, month, tile_lat,
tile_lon) collapses every duplicate enqueue.
- Era5BatchClient builds the monthly CDS requests, extracts every
(lat, lon, hour) from the GRIB2 blob with wgrib2, derives
refractivity params, and bulk-inserts in 2k-row chunks with
on_conflict: :nothing. fetch_month_into_db/1 short-circuits when
the month-tile already has any cached profile.
- Era5MonthBatchWorker runs the batch on the :era5 queue with a
generous backoff (10m → 1d) and the uniqueness key above.
- Era5FetchWorker is now a thin router: cache hit → :ok, cache miss
→ enqueue the month-batch for the point's tile-month and return.
No more per-point CDS calls.
- Wgrib2 grows extract_grid_messages/3 which preserves per-message
datetimes by parsing `d=YYYYMMDDHH[MMSS]` from the inventory, so a
single GRIB2 file carrying a whole month decodes correctly.
- The era5_backfill mix task enqueues month-tile batches directly.
Add fetch_grid/3 for batch HRRR data retrieval across multiple lat/lon
points in a single download pass. Expand surface messages to include
wind (UGRD/VGRD), cloud cover (TCDC), and precipitation (APCP). Add
extract_grid/2 to the GRIB2 extractor for multi-point extraction from
a single GRIB binary, and add GRIB2 variable identifiers for the new
surface fields.
Add extract_values/3 to SimplePacking and ComplexPacking for batch
index extraction from a single GRIB2 message. Add extract_grid/2 to
Extractor which takes a list of {lat, lon} points and returns all
variable values for each point, skipping points outside the grid.
This enables extracting weather data for many grid points from a
single HRRR download instead of re-parsing per point.
- Add precip_1h_in and wx_codes fields to ASOS surface observations
- Add IEMRE reanalysis schema for radar-derived hourly precipitation
- Add IemreFetchWorker with exponential backoff and idempotency
- Integrate IEMRE enqueue into cron weather backfill pipeline
- All existing QSOs marked iemre_queued=false for automatic backfill
