Commit graph

1813 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
3607a915ba
feat(hrdps): /weather merges HRRR with HRDPS for north-of-CONUS cells
The /weather map now shows HRRR-derived data wherever HRRR has
coverage and falls back to HRDPS-derived data for Canadian cells
outside HRRR's bbox. North of the 49°N HRRR-coverage line the map
stays populated instead of going blank.

Rust:

- weather_scalar_file::dir_for_hrdps + write_atomic_hrdps land HRDPS
  scalar chunks at `<vt>.hrdps/` so HRRR's `<vt>/` write isn't
  clobbered. The HRRR writer wipes its dir before each write — both
  sources need their own dir to coexist.
- pipeline::run_chain_step_hrdps now derives a ScalarRow for each
  scored cell (same derive_row that HRRR uses; same wire format) and
  writes them via write_atomic_hrdps alongside the .hrdps.prop score
  files.

Elixir:

- ScalarFile.dir_for_hrdps + read_bounds + read_point + exists? all
  walk both `<vt>/` (HRRR) and `<vt>.hrdps/` (HRDPS). read_bounds
  concatenates with HRRR-precedence on overlap (defensive — Rust
  pipeline doesn't write HRRR-overlap cells, but cheap to enforce).
- Weather.weather_grid_at unchanged: it routes through ScalarFile,
  which now transparently returns the union. GridCache stays
  per-valid_time so a single cache entry holds both regions.

Tests cover four scenarios: HRRR-only, HRDPS-only, both-present
union, and HRRR-precedence on the same cell.
2026-04-29 17:36:03 -05:00
1da78a80e5
feat(hrdps): activate Canadian propagation chain end-to-end
Stages 6, 7, 10 of the HRDPS plan, plus the Elixir read-side merge
that makes Rust's `.hrdps.prop` writes show up on /map.

Read side:

- `ScoresFile.path_for_hrdps/2` + `read_hrdps/2` — companions to the
  HRRR equivalents. Same decode path; different filename.
- `ScoresFile.read_bounds/3` now reads HRRR + HRDPS files and
  concatenates the cells. Files are disjoint by construction
  (Grid.hrdps_only_points excludes CONUS) so no de-dup needed.
- `ScoresFile.read_point/4` checks `.prop`, then `.hrdps.prop`, then
  legacy `.ntms` — first hit wins. Cells outside their owning region
  read as no-data in the other file's grid, so the order doesn't
  matter for correctness.
- `Propagation.warm_cache_and_broadcast/2` reads both files and
  merges before broadcasting to the cluster ScoreCache. A single
  missing file (HRDPS pre-cycle, HRRR briefly absent) is now OK —
  the cache warms with whichever side is available.

Activation:

- runtime.exs cron: HRDPS seed worker fires at HH:35 of each cycle
  hour (05:35Z, 11:35Z, 17:35Z, 23:35Z) — 5h after cycle, 30 min
  staggered from HRRR's */15 schedule.
- HrdpsGridWorker moduledoc updated: no longer dormant; Rust
  prop-grid-rs handles source='hrdps' rows.
- map_live North America bbox extended to (24.5, 60.0, -141.0, -52.0)
  for the out-of-coverage banner check; visitors anywhere in CONUS
  or the Canadian extent now stay banner-free.

Cleanup:

- mix hrdps.probe deleted — its risks are retired and the production
  HrdpsClient covers the same surface.

What's still in motion (not blocking the Canadian /map):

- Per-valid_time profile + scalar artifacts for HRDPS (would let
  /weather show Canadian temperature/refractivity layers). Rust
  pipeline currently skips those so the HRRR-written companion files
  aren't clobbered — separate stage when /weather UX is decided.
- FreshnessMonitor HRDPS staleness tracking — HRDPS has its own cron
  and a different cadence than HRRR; HRRR-stale logic doesn't apply
  cleanly. Defer until prod tells us what alarms we actually want.
2026-04-29 17:29:37 -05:00
46c2d84e5c
feat(rust/hrdps): prop-grid-rs HRDPS branch
Stages 4-5 of the HRDPS plan. Lands the Rust forecast-hour pipeline
for source='hrdps' grid_tasks rows.

What ships:

- `hrdps_fetcher.rs` — sibling of fetcher.rs for ECCC's MSC Datamart
  shape: date-prefixed URLs, one variable per GRIB2 file, concurrent
  fetch + byte-concat into a single multi-record blob. wgrib2 reads
  multi-record files natively so the downstream decoder path is
  unchanged. Mirrors lib/microwaveprop/weather/hrdps_client.ex.
- `grid::hrdps_only_points()` + `grid::hrdps_grid_spec()` — Canadian
  cells (49-60°N, -141 to -52°W) minus the HRRR overlap. Disjoint
  from conus_points by construction.
- `db::TaskSource` enum + `source` column on ClaimedTask. claim_next
  surfaces source for forecast lane dispatch; claim_next_analysis
  filters to source='hrrr' only (HRDPS analysis path is not yet
  ported — would need native-duct + NEXRAD + commercial merges that
  Rust doesn't have for HRDPS).
- `pipeline::run_chain_step_hrdps` — fetch combined blob, decode with
  HRDPS grid spec, drop HRRR-overlap cells via a HashSet of
  hrdps_only_points, back-fill DPT from DEPR (HRDPS publishes DEPR
  as primary), score every band, write `<band>/<iso>.hrdps.prop`.
  Skips per-valid_time profile + scalar artifacts since those would
  clobber HRRR's at the same valid_time — surfacing HRDPS on /weather
  is a separate stage.
- worker.rs dispatches forecast lane on (kind, source) — Hrrr →
  run_chain_step, Hrdps → run_chain_step_hrdps. Analysis stays
  HRRR-only. Worker constructs an HrdpsClient alongside HrrrClient.
- `scores_file::write_atomic_hrdps` writes to `.hrdps.prop` with the
  Canadian grid spec via the new encode_with_spec. Coexists with the
  HRRR `.prop` file for the same (band, valid_time).

163 unit tests pass; backfill_dpt_from_depr handles surface and
pressure-level levels with no double-fill when DPT exists.
2026-04-29 17:29:16 -05:00
fe1c10ce0c
docs(hrdps): record stage progress + dormant scaffolding state
CLAUDE.md adds HRDPS to Key Data Sources and the Background Job
Queues table with explicit "dormant until Rust ships" framing.

The 2026-04-29 plan gets a Status snapshot at the top: which stages
shipped (0-3 Elixir + 8) vs which are deferred to the Rust port
sessions (4-7, 9). Activation path is one-paragraph: land Rust HRDPS,
add cron entry, widen map bounds, extend FreshnessMonitor.
2026-04-29 17:13:08 -05:00
020f05f8eb
feat(hrdps): grid_tasks source column, Canadian mask, HrdpsGridWorker
Stage 3 (Elixir foundation) of the HRDPS plan. Lands the scaffolding
that lets the Rust prop-grid-rs HRDPS branch be wired up cleanly when
it ships, without further DB or Elixir-side changes.

What ships:

- `grid_tasks.source` column (default 'hrrr', backfill is a no-op).
  Replaces the (run_time, forecast_hour, kind) unique index with a
  4-column key (..., source) so HRRR and HRDPS analysis/forecast rows
  for the same cycle coexist.
- `Grid.hrdps_only_points/0` — Canadian cells inside HRDPS bbox
  (49-60°N, -141 to -52°W) but outside HRRR's CONUS bbox. Disjoint
  from `conus_points/0` by construction so the two grids never
  double-write the same (lat, lon).
- `Grid.point_source/1` — `:hrrr | :hrdps | :neither` classification
  for a (lat, lon) pair. Routes per-QSO enrichment to the right NWP
  source.
- `GridTaskEnqueuer.seed_with_analysis/2` and `seed/2` accept a
  `:source` option; defaults to "hrrr" so existing callers are
  unchanged.
- `HrdpsGridWorker` cycle seeder mirroring PropagationGridWorker's
  shape but for HRDPS's 4×/day cadence. `:hrdps` queue added to base
  Oban config.

What's deferred:

- The Rust `prop-grid-rs` worker doesn't yet branch on
  `task.source`. Until that ships, `HrdpsGridWorker` stays out of
  runtime.exs cron — it would just produce rows that the Rust worker
  mishandles as HRRR. Module doc explicitly notes the dormant state.
- Map overlay extension and FreshnessMonitor HRDPS staleness deferred
  to follow-up sessions once real data flows.

Activation path documented in the updated plan file.

Coverage cap recorded as Stage 8 decision: 60°N for v1 (SRTM stops
there). Arctic CDEM deferred to a follow-up plan.
2026-04-29 17:13:00 -05:00
15248239fe
feat(hrdps): hrdps_profiles partitioned table + HrdpsProfile schema
Stage 2 of the HRDPS plan. Mirror of hrrr_profiles for HRDPS-derived
rows so HRDPS can be dropped/reprocessed without disturbing the 4500+
HRRR profiles already in prod. Same column set, same indexes,
PARTITION BY RANGE (valid_time) with quarterly partitions starting at
the deploy quarter.

Schema follows the @primary_key {:id, :binary_id, autogenerate: true}
convention and the same set of derived fields HrrrProfile carries
(surface_refractivity, min_refractivity_gradient, ducting_detected,
duct_characteristics, etc.) so the rest of the pipeline can consume
HRDPS-derived rows interchangeably with HRRR-derived rows.

Unique constraint on (lat, lon, valid_time) is enforced at the DB
level via the partitioned index; schema-level unique_constraint/2
matching against changeset errors doesn't apply because the
partition's index name varies per partition. Production upserts go
through `on_conflict: {:replace_all_except, ...}` per project
convention.
2026-04-29 17:12:41 -05:00
2768fc68c0
fix(test): weather_map_live one-hour-cutoff test flake
The test computed recent_t = (truncated_to_top_of_hour now) - 30min,
which is 30-90 min before real utc_now() depending on what minute the
test runs at. The LiveView's `cutoff = utc_now() - 1h` then dropped
recent_t whenever the real-time minute exceeded ~30, so the test
failed half the time.

Anchor recent_t at the top of the current hour — that's always within
the 1-hour window regardless of minute. The test still exercises the
"keep within last hour" path; just stops being clock-flaky.
2026-04-29 16:58:56 -05:00
139d9f7cbe
feat(hrdps): HrdpsClient — fetch_grid for Canadian propagation grid
Stage 1 of the HRDPS plan. Mirrors HrrrClient.fetch_grid/3's signature
so PropagationGridWorker can call either polymorphically.

Architectural shape per the probe wedge findings:
- ECCC's date-prefixed datamart URL structure
  (dd.weather.gc.ca/{YYYYMMDD}/WXO-DD/model_hrdps/...)
- One-variable-per-file model — fetch ~14 small GRIB2s concurrently,
  byte-concatenate into a single multi-record binary, hand to
  Wgrib2.extract_points_from_file. wgrib2 reads multi-record files
  natively so no -merge step is needed.
- wgrib2's -lon flag handles the rotated-lat/lon reprojection
  internally — no manual rotation math.

Variable catalog covers the surface set the propagation scorer reads
plus the 1000-700 mb pressure-level set used by the refractivity
gradient. PWAT is unavailable in HRDPS f000 inventory; the scorer's
PWAT factor will fall back to its default for HRDPS-derived points.

DEPR (T-Td depression) is treated as an alternate primary; when DPT
is absent build_profile_from_extracted derives dewpoint as
temp - depression so downstream consumers see the same shape as HRRR.

Plan task 1.6 (CYYR projection sanity check vs UWYO sounding) is
covered by the live probe at lib/mix/tasks/hrdps_probe.ex which
already validated wgrib2's rotated-grid handling against five
Canadian cities; the production implementation routes through the
same Wgrib2.extract_points_from_file path that the probe used.
2026-04-29 16:58:47 -05:00
14e81f9251
docs(hrdps): plan + probe wedge for Canadian propagation grid
Adds mix hrdps.probe — throwaway wedge that retires URL/projection/decode
risks against MSC Datamart. Verified against five Canadian cities with
plausible 2m temperatures via wgrib2's native rotated-lat/lon support.

Findings update what we knew:
- ECCC reorganized to date-prefixed paths; the old /model_hrdps/ root
  404s now. Real URL is dd.weather.gc.ca/{YYYYMMDD}/WXO-DD/model_hrdps/...
- HRDPS publishes one variable per GRIB2 file (~3.5 MB each), not
  HRRR's bundled wrfsfcf format. ~14 files per cycle/forecast hour.
- wgrib2 -lon LON LAT handles the rotated grid natively — no manual
  reprojection math needed.

New plan at 2026-04-29-hrdps-canadian-prop-grid.md supersedes the
2026-04-13 one (which assumed HRRR-style idx + byte-range fetches that
don't apply). Probe deletion is a Stage 10 step in the new plan.
2026-04-29 16:47:15 -05:00
c20aceba95
perf(map): chunk-keyed ScoreCache for viewport reads
Bucket each cache entry into 5°×5° spatial chunks matching the layout
used by Weather.GridCache. fetch_bounds/3 now walks only the chunks
intersecting the viewport instead of the full 92k-cell CONUS map; a
typical zoomed viewport hits ~1500 cells per chunk × the chunks the
viewport overlaps instead of scanning all 92k.

Public API and observable behavior unchanged. Add cross-chunk-boundary
regression tests so future refactors can't silently flatten the layout.
2026-04-29 16:47:03 -05:00
6a90d153ca
perf(map): /scores/cells binary endpoint, client-side fetch + band/time prefetch
Apply the same overlay refactor we did for /weather to the propagation
map. Score data used to flow as JSON via LiveView push_event
(update_scores + the 18-hour preload_forecast batch); switching bands
or scrubbing time meant a synchronous server roundtrip + ~MB JSON push
per change.

Now:

1. New /scores/cells endpoint returns a "PSCR" binary cell-pack —
   columnar f32 lats/lons + u8 scores, ~3-4× smaller than JSON and
   parsed via DataView + typed-array views with no JSON.parse.

2. JS hook owns score fetching. mount/moveend/band/time changes
   trigger HTTP fetches against /scores/cells. After the initial
   paint, every other forecast hour for the current band is fetched
   in parallel in the background — timeline scrubs after the prefetch
   finishes are pure cache hits with no network at all.

3. LiveView no longer pushes scores. select_band emits update_band_info
   with band_mhz so the client knows what to refetch; select_time and
   set_selected_time only update server-side state (URL, point detail
   bbox). map_bounds, propagation_updated, and advance_now_cursor all
   skip the score push — pack_scores, schedule_bounds_update,
   schedule_preload_forecast, the :flush_bounds and :preload_forecast
   handle_info clauses, and the start_async :initial_scores lifecycle
   (incl. retry_initial_scores event) are all deleted.

Net result: instant band toggles after the first paint, no LiveView
WebSocket payloads larger than the timeline metadata, and ~370 fewer
lines in MapLive.
2026-04-29 14:27:20 -05:00
ed8b080b13
ops(prop): bump preStop sleep to 25s for cloudflared connection drain
The ingress is cloudflared (Cloudflare Tunnel), which keeps an HTTP/2
connection pool to upstream Service IPs and reuses connections
aggressively. After a pod is removed from Service endpoints,
cloudflared can still hold in-flight HTTP/2 streams to the dying pod
for a noticeable window — 10 s wasn't enough, deploys still bounced
502 on LiveView reconnect.

Bump preStop sleep 10s → 25s and terminationGracePeriodSeconds 40s →
60s so cloudflared has time to turn over its upstream connections
before Phoenix begins draining.
2026-04-29 14:17:40 -05:00
45d8466808
ops(prop): preStop sleep so Service drains before Phoenix shuts down
Deploys were causing 502 Bad Gateway on LiveView reconnect. The kubelet
sent SIGTERM to the old pod and Phoenix immediately stopped accepting
connections, but the Service endpoint controller and ingress hadn't
yet propagated the pod's removal from endpoints — the browser's
reconnect raced the endpoint update and bounced 502 against the dead
pod, then gave up.

Add a 10s preStop sleep on the container and bump
terminationGracePeriodSeconds to 40 so the load balancer has time to
drain this pod before Phoenix begins shutting down.
2026-04-29 14:13:22 -05:00
9e4ca154ff
fix(weather): drop valid_times older than one hour from the timeline
The HRRR scalar cache can hold a previous run's forecast hours past
their useful life — the timeline was offering "current conditions"
points that were 2-3 hours old, which is more misleading than helpful
on a map labeled "Now".

Filter Weather.available_weather_valid_times() through a `now - 1h`
cutoff in mount, :weather_updated, and :propagation_pipeline_progress
so the timeline only ever shows the most recent analysis hour plus
forecast hours.
2026-04-29 14:03:55 -05:00
b66024e0c3
ops(prop): zero-downtime rolling update with single replica
maxUnavailable: 1 was killing the only pod before the new one was
ready, taking the site down for the entire image pull + boot window
on every deploy. Switch to maxSurge: 1 / maxUnavailable: 0 so K8s
spins up the replacement and waits for its readinessProbe to pass
before tearing down the old pod.
2026-04-29 13:50:14 -05:00
2de1b89efc
chore(weather): drop tile endpoint and JSON cells back-compat
The client moved to the binary cell-pack and canvas overlay last
commit, so the per-tile SVG endpoint, the TileRenderer module, and the
JSON shape of /weather/cells are all dead code. Remove them.

/weather/cells now always returns the binary WCEL pack (the ?format=bin
toggle is gone — there's only one format). The data-weather-tile-url
attribute and the weather_tile_url assign are dropped from the LiveView.

Also fix a latent bug surfaced once tests covered the default-layers
path: nil row values were writing the atom :nan into the binary segment
at runtime. Replaced with the explicit f32 quiet-NaN bit pattern so
Number.isNaN flags them correctly on the JS side.
2026-04-29 13:45:43 -05:00
af8b787915
perf(weather): binary cell-pack + canvas overlay + lazy layer prefetch
Three changes that shrink first-paint and make layer toggles instant:

1. Server: /weather/cells now supports ?format=bin and ?layers=a,b,c. The
   binary "WCEL" pack is ~3× smaller than JSON (Float32 columns, no key
   overhead) and parses with DataView + typed-array views — essentially
   memcpy on the client.

2. Client: replaced JSON parse + per-cell SVG <rect> with a custom
   Leaflet canvas layer. The pack is columnar (lats/lons + Float32Array
   per layer) and each draw is one fillRect per cell against a
   precomputed 256-step color LUT. At low zoom (CONUS, ~80k cells) SVG
   paint cost dominated; canvas keeps it under one frame.

3. Lazy prefetch: the initial fetch only requests the *current* layer
   (~1/19 the bytes). Right after paint, a single background fetch
   pulls every other layer into the same pack. Layer switches that land
   after the prefetch finishes are pure recolor — no network, no
   server CPU.

The /weather/tiles endpoint stays for backward compat. The JSON path of
/weather/cells stays too — the binary path is opt-in via ?format=bin.
2026-04-29 13:41:21 -05:00
f4a177c9d0
perf(weather): single-fetch viewport cells, client-side recolor on layer switch
Previously every layer toggle triggered 21 fresh tile requests with the
new layer in the URL — ~21 server-side SVG renders, plus the round-trip
overhead. Even with the GridCache fix the server still spent real CPU
generating thousands of <rect>s per tile, and the user felt it.

Add /weather/cells: a single JSON endpoint returning every layer field
for every cell in the requested viewport. The hook fetches once on
mount, time change, or pan/zoom, caches the cells in memory, and paints
them via L.svgOverlay. Layer switches now re-color the same cached
cells locally — zero network, zero server CPU.

The single SVG uses lat/lon coords with preserveAspectRatio="none";
Leaflet stretches it linearly to the bbox. There is mild equirect→
mercator distortion at low zoom over CONUS but it's imperceptible at
typical use (z6+) and the layer-toggle UX win is large.

Tile endpoint kept for back-compat. svgOverlay opacity matches the
prior tile renderer's 0.55 fill-opacity.
2026-04-29 13:31:17 -05:00
b67c0e88c0
perf(weather): cache forecast-hour grids in GridCache to skip ScalarFile decode
Each /weather/tiles request was running the full ScalarFile decode path
(File.read → gunzip → Msgpax.unpack → normalize) for any non-analysis
valid_time, because GridCache deliberately skipped forecast hours to keep
memory low. With 21 simultaneous viewport tiles all hitting the same few
chunk files, each tile took 1.5-3.2s of contended IO + CPU.

On a GridCache miss when a ScalarFile exists, hydrate GridCache from the
file once (deduped via the existing claim_fill primitive) and serve all
subsequent reads from ETS. Bound memory with prune_keep_latest/1 — keep
the 24 most-recently-touched valid_times, which covers a full HRRR run
(analysis + 18 forecasts) plus a few stragglers from the previous run.

In the steady state, the first viewport read for a given forecast hour
takes one full ScalarFile decode (~50-100 ms for 92k cells); every
subsequent tile, point lookup, and viewport read for the same hour
serves from ETS in <1 ms.
2026-04-29 13:10:12 -05:00
e632002255
fix(weather): paint overlay on mount instead of waiting for click
renderLayer was called during mounted() before selectedTime was seeded
from the dataset, so buildWeatherTileUrl returned null and no tile
layer was added. The overlay only appeared when the user clicked a
forecast hour and update_weather_overlay fired. Seed selectedTime
(and timelineData) from data attributes before the first renderLayer.
2026-04-29 12:50:28 -05:00
db59815613
deps: bump oban 2.21.1 → 2.22.0, swoosh 1.25.0 → 1.25.1, oban_pro 1.6.13 → 1.6.14
Also pulls db_connection 2.9.0 → 2.10.0 and spitfire 0.3.10 → 0.3.11 transitively.
oban_pro 1.6.14 adds suspended state support and conditional __opts__ @impl
to align with Oban v2.21+'s new Worker callback.
2026-04-29 12:19:49 -05:00
43db0fb8dd
remove obsolete flux manifest and imagepolicy annotations 2026-04-29 11:00:05 -05:00
93dd20f830
ops(prop): pin HPA to 1 replica
Set minReplicas == maxReplicas == 1 on the `prop` HPA so the cluster
runs exactly one app pod. HPA still owns the replica count (Flux
ignores spec.replicas on the Deployment), so this is the right knob —
no need to touch deployment.yaml. Restore autoscaling by raising both
bounds together.
2026-04-29 09:55:46 -05:00
fdecd51014
fix(rust/scorer): sync recalibrated default weights with Elixir
Pre-existing CI failure (`tests/scorer_golden.rs`) — the Rust scorer
was still on the pre-recalibration weight vector, while the Elixir
side picked up new gradient-descent-fit weights in f98ee153.

- Update `DEFAULT_WEIGHTS` in band_config.rs to match the new Elixir
  values (humidity 0.1262, time_of_day 0.0380, td_depression 0.1010,
  refractivity 0.0986, sky 0.0841, season 0.1134, wind 0.0841,
  rain 0.1431, pressure 0.0967, pwat 0.1147).
- Loosen the sum-to-one tolerance in `default_weights_sum_to_one`
  from 1e-9 to 1e-3 to match Elixir's `assert_in_delta total, 1.0,
  0.001` — gradient-descent fits land near 1.0 but not exact.
- Regenerate `tests/scores.bincode` from `mix rust.golden` so the
  golden fixture reflects the recalibrated scorer outputs.

`cargo clippy --all-targets -- -D warnings` clean.
139 Rust unit tests + golden fixture pass.
3072 Elixir tests pass.
2026-04-29 09:32:54 -05:00
af560be01e
fix(weather_scalar_file): use direct <= instead of !(>) for partial-ord guard
Clippy's `neg_cmp_op_on_partial_ord` lint fails on `-D warnings`,
which CI enforces. Using `<=` directly is clearer and equivalent for
the f64 inputs we pass (both are caller-supplied target pressures
that come from the level-key constants — neither is ever NaN).
2026-04-29 08:45:46 -05:00
9f583a16bf
perf(weather/scalar_file): single MessagePack format for both Elixir and Rust
Move ScalarFile from a dual-writer dual-format setup (ETF on the Elixir
side, materialized via NotifyListener; nothing on the Rust side) to a
single chunked-MessagePack format that both languages produce and
consume.

Elixir side:

- ScalarFile now writes gzipped MessagePack `.mp.gz` per chunk via
  Msgpax. Reader decodes with Msgpax + zlib. Atom keys are stripped to
  strings on encode and re-atomized via a whitelist on read so callers
  see the same shape regardless of which side wrote the bytes.
- DateTime values round-trip through ISO8601 strings.
- New cross-language wire-format test that decodes a hand-rolled
  payload mirroring exactly what `rmp_serde::to_vec_named` emits, so a
  format regression on either side fails the suite.

Rust side:

- New `prop_grid_rs::weather_scalar_file` module:
  - 1:1 port of `Microwaveprop.Weather.WeatherLayers.derive/1` plus
    the surface fields `Weather.build_grid_cache_row/4` adds on top
    (lapse rate, mid lapse rate, inversion strength + base, 850/700 mb
    interpolation, surface RH, surface refractivity, ducting flag).
  - `write_atomic` chunks rows into 5°×5° buckets, writes one
    `<lat_band>_<lon_band>.mp.gz` per chunk via tmp + rename, drops
    pre-existing chunks first to keep writes canonical.
  - 5 unit tests covering surface-only rows, upper-air derivation,
    write/read round-trip, chunk band boundaries, and the
    out-of-physical-range surface-temp filter.
- Pipeline integration: both `run_chain_step` (f01..f18) and the f00
  analysis path now build `Vec<ScalarRow>` in the same merged-cell
  pass that builds `CellEntry` and `Conditions`, then fire a parallel
  `spawn_blocking` write that overlaps with scoring. Awaiting the
  scalar future after the score-band writes keeps the failure-surface
  symmetric with the existing profile_future.

Result: every new forecast hour lands with the scalar artifact already
on disk, so /weather reads never fall through to ProfilesFile decode +
per-cell SoundingParams + WeatherLayers derivation. The Elixir-side
`NotifyListener.handle_propagation_ready/1` materialization remains as
an idempotent safety net for hours that pre-date this commit.
2026-04-29 08:26:28 -05:00
1d72f52dad
perf(weather/grid_cache): chunk-keyed ETS layout for viewport reads
Mirror ScalarFile's 5°×5° chunk layout inside GridCache. Each ETS entry
is now `%{{lat_band, lon_band} => %{{lat, lon} => row}}` instead of a
flat `%{{lat,lon} => row}`. fetch_bounds/2 walks only the chunks that
intersect the requested viewport, so latest-hour pans become
proportional to visible chunks (~2-4) rather than O(92k cells).

fetch/1, fetch_point/3, put/2 and broadcast_put/2 keep their
pre-existing contracts.

Also closes the open items in docs/weather.md: Phase 3 is now done end
to end. The only remaining future-work item is moving WeatherLayers.derive
itself into the Rust pipeline so the BEAM doesn't pay the one-time
materialization pass per new valid_time — small runtime savings vs.
significant port effort, so left as documented future work.
2026-04-28 17:24:12 -05:00
a14f14485e
perf(weather): serve /weather from chunked scalar artifacts
Move the /weather render path off raw HRRR profile decoding + per-cell
SoundingParams + WeatherLayers derivation. The dominant cost was
re-deriving the same scalar fields on every viewport pan and timeline
scrub.

Server side:

- New Microwaveprop.Weather.ScalarFile persists pre-derived scalar
  rows on NFS, bucketed into 5°×5° chunk files under
  <base>/weather_scalars/<iso>/<lat_band>_<lon_band>.etf.gz. Viewport
  reads only decode the chunks that overlap the requested bounds;
  point-detail clicks read exactly one chunk.
- weather_grid_at/2 and weather_point_detail/3 prefer ScalarFile;
  ProfilesFile is now the cold-start fallback only.
- warm_grid_cache_and_broadcast/1 and warm_grid_cache_from_latest_profile/0
  also persist the scalar artifact, and the cold-derive path kicks
  off a per-valid_time-locked async materialization so the next
  reader gets the cheap path.
- NotifyListener.handle_propagation_ready/1 fires
  Weather.materialize_scalar_file/1 in a detached Task on the Rust
  pipeline's NOTIFY propagation_ready, so steady-state forecast hours
  arrive with their scalar artifact already on disk.
- available_weather_valid_times/0 unions ScalarFile + ProfilesFile so
  the timeline survives an aggressive retention sweep on either side.

Browser side (finding #8):

- Mount the legend Leaflet control once and patch its inner content
  on layer changes instead of remove + re-add on every renderLayer.
- renderTimeline now keys off the rendered button set: selection-only
  updates take an applyTimelineSelection patch path that restyles
  existing buttons in place. Full innerHTML rebuild only fires when
  timelineData itself changes.

Also fixes a credo nesting-depth flag in tile_renderer.ex by extracting
interpolate_pair/2 from the inner anonymous function.
2026-04-28 17:15:36 -05:00
1ced558e6f
chore(ml): retrain on recalibrated algorithm weights
Test RMSE 1.49 score points (was 1.70), R² 0.977 (was 0.969).
Closes the loop after f98ee153 updated the algorithm weights.
2026-04-28 14:48:25 -05:00
f98ee15359
chore(scorer): apply recalibrated factor weights from gradient descent fit
Refit on the current contact corpus via mix recalibrate_scorer (val loss
0.140 vs 0.146 train, initial 0.434). Mostly small adjustments — the
notable shifts are time_of_day −0.0116 (now the smallest factor) and
rain +0.0069 (continues to be the largest single weight).

Sums to 1.0 (within rounding); per-band overrides not affected.
2026-04-28 14:41:50 -05:00
d5da0cec2b
feat(ml): add prop.compare task for algorithm-vs-ML-vs-reality calibration
`mix prop.compare` runs both scorers against a recent contact sample
and measures both against achieved contact distance. Each run appends
to priv/calibration/history.jsonl, so trends in alg-ML divergence and
algorithm-distance correlation surface over weeks of running.

When drift exceeds threshold (alg-ML RMSE > 8 score points, or current
correlation > 0.10 below the history median), the task writes a
recommendation pointing at the right remediation:

    mix recalibrate_scorer    # algorithm drift → refit weights
    mix propagation_train     # ML drift → retrain on the new algorithm

That is the feedback loop: measure → recommend → recalibrate/retrain →
loop. Operational rather than automatic, so a bad data window can't
silently corrupt the model.

Pure analysis lives in Microwaveprop.Propagation.Calibration with its
own unit tests; the Mix task only handles data loading, file I/O, and
console formatting.
2026-04-28 14:38:02 -05:00
2defa3db7a
refactor: deduplicate helpers and simplify Scorer
- Unify haversine_km / deg_to_rad: Geo is the canonical home (atan2
  form for antipodal stability); Radio, common_volume, rain_scatter,
  ionosphere, terrain/srtm, terrain/elevation_client now delegate.
- Drop safe_min/safe_max wrappers in favor of Enum.min/max defaults.
- Move parse_float / parse_int to MicrowavepropWeb.LiveHelpers; eme,
  path, and rover LiveViews import from there.
- Extract MicrowavepropWeb.LocationResolver from the eme/path
  resolve_source / resolve_location duplicate. Standardize the kind
  key and "Invalid grid square" error message.
- Convert Scorer cond chains (humidity, td_depression, sky, wind,
  rain, pwat, pressure) to multi-clause guarded defs, matching the
  existing classify_time_period style.
- extract_profile_fields uses a named map accumulator instead of a
  6-tuple; build_path_conditions guards on %{temps: []} / %{dewpoints: []}.
- Collapse scores_file clamp/3 to max |> min.
- humidity_effect_label lives in BandConfig; map_live and path_live
  both use it.
2026-04-28 14:14:34 -05:00
a6b89961f6
feat(ml): retrain propagation model and add per-prediction explainability
Retrained on 60k month-balanced HRRR profiles through 2026-04-05
(test RMSE 1.7 score points, R² 0.97). Added explain_prediction/4
returning ranked feature contributions via batched finite-difference
attribution, so the UI can show users which weather factors drove
each prediction.
2026-04-28 14:14:22 -05:00
f26fbafc29
fix: log every silent error path so failures surface in k8s logs
Sweep of remaining swallowed-error sites flagged by an audit pass:

- weather/gefs_client.ex: byte-range download task exits log url + reason
  before being surfaced as {:error, _} (matches the HRRR fix).
- live/path_live.ex: terrain-profile load failure, native-duct lookup
  failure, and ProfilesFile.read failure now log warnings with path
  endpoints / midpoint / valid_time. Previously rendered a degraded
  result silently.
- live/rover_live.ex: station-mutation {:error, _} now logs id + reason
  instead of dropping into {:noreply, socket}.
- application.ex: the boot-time backfill_missing_home_qth Task.start is
  now wrapped in try/rescue. A DB issue at boot would have crashed the
  task silently (no Logger handler attached pre-Logger crash format).
2026-04-27 14:31:30 -05:00
301935f8c1
fix: log swallowed async task exits in GEFS scoring and HRRR range fetch
GefsFetch silently dropped crashed score-computation tasks via
`{:exit, _reason} -> []`, hiding partial-grid outages from k8s logs.
HRRR range downloads mapped exits to `{:error, reason}` without logging
the URL, so the failing range was lost by the time the caller surfaced
the error.

All three sites now Logger.error with enough context (fh, valid_time,
url) to debug from production logs.
2026-04-27 14:22:10 -05:00
388129865e
flux update 2026-04-27 12:57:20 -05:00
FluxCD
06a635e154 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1777300373-610892e [skip ci] 2026-04-27 14:40:47 +00:00
610892e77e
feat(contact): link grid squares to gridmap.org 2026-04-27 09:32:01 -05:00
FluxCD
0cf044be30 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1777235702-fe2ecf2 [skip ci] 2026-04-26 20:39:17 +00:00
fe2ecf2618
feat(import): strip non-printables from CSV/ADIF uploads
Adds Microwaveprop.Radio.TextSanitizer to remove BOM, zero-width
spaces/joiners, C0 control bytes (except CR/LF/TAB), and DEL, and to
collapse NBSP and other unicode whitespace into a regular space.

CSV: applied to the whole upload at the top of preview/2.
ADIF: applied per-field-value after extraction so the byte-counted
length tags still slice the right substring.
2026-04-26 15:34:46 -05:00
FluxCD
faa2105861 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1777235105-c0a884d [skip ci] 2026-04-26 20:32:15 +00:00
c0a884dc99
fix(contact): align Mechanism panel with Propagation Analysis ducts
The radar-only RainScatterClassifier sees ducting only when HRRR's
pressure-level M-profile flagged it. Sounding-detected and gradient-
inferred ducts surface in elevation_profile.ducts via the analysis
pipeline — promote those into :tropo_duct so the Mechanism badge
agrees with the narrative.
2026-04-26 15:24:18 -05:00
FluxCD
4b10d63e67 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1777230205-f9e3dd5 [skip ci] 2026-04-26 19:07:55 +00:00
f9e3dd50e4
fix(rover-locations): use circleMarker; default marker icons aren't bundled 2026-04-26 14:03:10 -05:00
FluxCD
df475a8199 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1777229724-f63e679 [skip ci] 2026-04-26 18:59:35 +00:00
f63e679e34
feat(rover-locations): inline satellite map per location
Click a row's info area to expand a Leaflet mini-map centered on that
pin, defaulting to ESRI World_Imagery satellite (zoom up to 21) with
OSM/Topo toggles in a top-right layer control.
2026-04-26 13:55:08 -05:00
FluxCD
18e6088aa8 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1777227978-488b968 [skip ci] 2026-04-26 18:30:28 +00:00
488b968cdc
feat(rover): "only use known ideal locations" toggle
Adds a checkbox in the rover sidebar that constrains the suggested
candidate spots to lat/lon points tagged as :ideal in /rover-locations.
When enabled, Compute.run replaces grid cells with synthetic cells at
each ideal location's exact coordinates, inheriting the propagation
score from the nearest grid cell so atmospheric forecast still factors
in. Path-clearance, terrain, building, and canopy penalties run
unchanged on those snapped candidates.
2026-04-26 13:25:29 -05:00
FluxCD
5094ea0837 chore: update prop image to git.mcintire.me/graham/prop:main-1777227067-ca142d5 [skip ci] 2026-04-26 18:15:24 +00:00
ca142d5091
feat(rover-locations): show 10-char Maidenhead grid (computed, never stored) 2026-04-26 13:10:49 -05:00