Adds the second ionospheric data source layer. Polls NOAA SWPC's free
public JSON services every 5 minutes for three products:
* Planetary K-index (1-min cadence) → geomagnetic_observations
* 10.7 cm solar flux (hourly) → solar_flux_observations
* GOES X-ray flux (1-min, 0.1-0.8nm long-wave band only) →
solar_xray_observations
All three products feed HF / Es scoring inputs that the propagation
engine will start using in a follow-up commit:
* Kp drives HF absorption and Es damping (memory notes Kp is inversely
correlated with tropo/Es stability).
* F10.7 is the SSN proxy for ITU-R P.533 HF MUF prediction.
* GOES X-ray long-wave flux is the short-wave fade (SWF) / D-layer
absorption proxy — a C-class flare starts attenuating HF within
seconds of the X-ray peak.
New context `Microwaveprop.SpaceWeather` exposes `upsert_*/1` and
`latest_*/0` per product; `SpaceWeatherFetchWorker` pulls all three
independently so one endpoint's outage doesn't block the others.
Fixtures captured from live SWPC endpoints on 2026-04-15 for the
parser tests.
Not yet wired into scoring — that's a separate commit.
First step toward physics-based HF / sporadic-E scoring. Polls GIRO's
DIDBase tabular endpoint every 10 minutes for two US ionosondes
(Millstone Hill MHJ45, Alpena AL945), parses the plain-text response
into observation rows, and upserts into a new ionosonde_observations
table keyed on (station_code, valid_time).
This gets foEs (E-layer sporadic critical frequency) into the database
as a direct measurement — the key input for predicting 144 MHz Es
openings via ITU-R P.534-6. foF2 + MUFD are the F2-layer inputs for
HF MUF predictions.
Not yet wired into scoring. Boulder/Wallops/Austin/Idaho/Point Arguello
are in the GIRO catalog but were silent when probed — add them back
if/when they come online.
Next steps: SWPC JSON (Kp, F10.7, sunspot), GOES X-ray flux, D-RAP text,
and the P.534-6 Es scoring factor that uses foEs at midpoint for the
144/440 band configs.
A brief CDS network blip on 2026-04-15 returned HTTP 5xx from check_status
for multiple concurrently-polling workers. The old `{:error, _}` branches
consumed attempts, max_attempts=10 burned out in seconds, and 13 rows
were discarded with no cleanup — orphaned with no active poll worker,
including two rows that had both CDS legs done and were ready to decode.
Result: zero era5_profiles ever inserted despite 59 tile-months in flight.
Transient HTTP errors are now a `{:snooze, 60}` so a CDS outage pauses
polling instead of killing it. Terminal states (:failed, :rejected,
:not_found, :stuck) still drive the fail/resubmit paths.
Full cutover: the propagation_scores Postgres table is gone, and
the binary files under /data/scores are the sole source of truth
for the map render path. Three stacked changes:
1. New migration drops the propagation_scores table and its indexes
(the earlier tuning migrations for it were already applied and
are now no-ops against a missing table, which is fine — Ecto
just runs them on fresh environments).
2. Propagation context is gutted of every GridScore reference.
replace_scores/2 writes files only. upsert_scores/2 is deleted.
load_scores_from_db, available_valid_times_from_db,
point_detail_from_db, point_forecast_from_db, fetch_factors,
coalesce_factors, the Postgres side of prune_old_scores, and
the Postgres fallbacks in latest/earliest_valid_time are all
removed. point_detail always returns an empty factors map now
since factor breakdowns were retired with the table.
3. Deleted modules:
- Propagation.GridScore (the schema)
- Propagation.ScorerDiff (read factors from the table)
- Propagation.AsosNudge (helper for AsosAdjustmentWorker)
- Workers.AsosAdjustmentWorker (its cron was already disabled)
- Mix.Tasks.ScorerDiff (wrapper around the deleted module)
And their tests. AdminTaskWorker's scorer_diff task is a
logging no-op so any queued Oban rows drain cleanly.
Release.scorer_diff stays as a stub that tells the operator.
propagation_prune_worker_test rewritten to exercise ScoresFile
pruning. propagation_test.exs rewritten to use replace_scores +
ScoresFile throughout (no more GridScore / upsert_scores paths).
A full f00-f18 sweep takes ~170 min of wall time, longer than the
~90 min gap between deploys on this cluster. Over the last 7 days
every run was killed mid-sweep and zero runs completed. The
propagation_scores table only ever held the scraps from partial
runs that landed before the pod died, which is why the map looked
like it was showing "the current hour" (or nothing).
The worker now processes exactly one forecast hour per perform/1
(~8-10 min) and enqueues the next hour as a fresh Oban job. A cron
fire with empty args seeds the chain at f00; subsequent runs carry
run_time + forecast_hour args. At f18 the chain stops and the
pruner runs. Each step broadcasts propagation:updated immediately
so new hours appear on the map as they land.
Wall time per perform drops from ~170 min to ~10 min, so Lifeline's
2h rescue window is no longer a factor and a pod restart loses at
most one forecast hour instead of the whole sweep. Retries and
max_attempts now describe a single fh, not the whole chain.
Also: bump the :propagation queue from 1 to 2 slots so
PropagationPruneWorker can run alongside the chain job, drop the
worker timeout/1 from 90 min to 20 min to match single-fh runs,
and pull Lifeline rescue_after from 120 min to 45 min to keep the
safety net above the step timeout.
Adds a "Data from HH:MM UTC · Nh ago/now/+Nh" indicator above the
pipeline chip in both the mobile and desktop sidebars so the user
can tell which valid_time the map is showing when the bottom
timeline isn't visible.
Era5SubmitWorker was counting era5_cds_jobs rows 1:1 against the CDS
150-job ceiling, but each row holds TWO CDS job IDs (single-level +
pressure-level). Prod hit 74 rows = 148 in-flight jobs and got stuck
in a reject→resubmit spiral. The cap guard now multiplies row count
by 2 to match what CDS sees.
Era5PollWorker @stuck_after_seconds goes from 4h to 18h. CDS
single-level routinely sits at 'accepted' for 12+h under load while
pressure finishes in ~90 min; the 4h threshold was firing on normal
slow runs and feeding the same spiral.
PipelineStatus now returns `label` + `detail` separately so the map
chip can render "Updating propagation" on one line and the
sub-detail ("HRRR run" / "ASOS nudge" / "+3h" / "now") on a second
line below it. running_label/1 is renamed to running_detail/1 and
returns just the sub-part.
Observed in prod: after the CDS cap guard shipped, jobs started
landing but one leg per tile-month would routinely stay in 'accepted'
state for 16+ hours while the other completed in ~90 minutes. CDS's
per-user queue fairness apparently serializes competing leg requests
and the single-level ones got stranded behind higher-priority work.
Add an age-based stuck detector in Era5PollWorker: if a row has been
submitted for more than 4 hours and neither leg is fully done, treat
both legs as terminal, clean them up from CDS, and re-enqueue the
submit. Re-uses the resubmit_vanished path. 4h is ~8× the normal
completion time so transient queue variance doesn't trip it, but
tight enough that stuck jobs self-heal in a working session.
CDS returns status="rejected" (distinct from "failed") when a submit
is rate-limited past the 150-job per-user cap. The poll worker's
interpret_status_body treated this as an unknown status → generic
retryable error → 10 retries → discarded. 102 jobs hit this path
overnight.
Fix:
* Era5Client.check_status/1 now returns {:rejected, reason} (and
treats "dismissed" the same way — that's the status a manually
deleted job transitions to).
* Era5PollWorker handles :rejected exactly like :not_found: drop the
DB row, clean up the sibling CDS job, re-enqueue the submit, and
discard the current Oban job so it doesn't burn attempts retrying
a terminal state.
* Widened Era5SubmitWorker cap headroom from 10 → 30 (effective
ceiling 120 not 140). The race between concurrent workers all
passing the count check simultaneously meant we were reaching 141
in-flight against the 150 hard cap; 30 slots of headroom tolerates
a ~15-worker race before clipping CDS's ceiling.
Refactored handle_row/1 into handle_row + handle_non_both_done with a
leg_outcome/1 tag helper so the cross-product of leg statuses collapses
to a single pair match (credo complexity limit).
CDS enforces a per-user cap of 150 queued jobs. Each successful submit
adds 2 rows to era5_cds_jobs (single-level + pressure-level), so when
the current in-flight count + 2 would exceed (150 - 10 headroom), the
worker snoozes for 5 minutes instead of POSTing to CDS. Stops 'Number
of queued requests is limited to 150' rejects from burning Oban
attempts.
Contacts whose weather/hrrr/terrain/iemre status has been :queued for
more than 3 days (144 cron cycles) are flipped to :unavailable. The
set_enrichment_status!/3 helper is a no-op when the status is unchanged,
so a stuck row retains a stale updated_at — which is exactly the signal
we need for 'the cron has already tried and the data doesnt exist
upstream' (dead ASOS station, pre-2014 HRRR, out-of-grid IEMRE). Clears
~1,492 pre-existing stuck contacts and stops them from churning the
backfill queue.
When CDS returns 404 for a poll check, the job is gone (manually
deleted, reaped, or never existed). Retrying will always 404, so treat
it as terminal: drop the era5_cds_jobs row, delete the sibling CDS job,
re-enqueue Era5SubmitWorker for the tile-month, and discard the Oban
poll job. Fixes 30 retryable poll jobs left behind by the interrupted
manual-cleanup script.
The single Era5MonthBatchWorker pinned an Oban slot for the full 30-45
min a CDS month-tile takes to assemble, and lost the work entirely on a
rolling deploy because the in-flight Task died with the pod. This splits
the flow into two tiny workers and persists the CDS job IDs so deploys
survive.
New pipeline:
1. Era5SubmitWorker (:era5_submit queue) — POSTs both CDS requests in
parallel, writes an `era5_cds_jobs` row with the returned job IDs,
and enqueues an Era5PollWorker scheduled +5 min. ~1s of real work.
Short-circuits when the month-tile is already cached or when a row
already exists (in-flight from a previous attempt).
2. Era5PollWorker (:era5_poll queue) — reads the row, calls
Era5Client.check_status/1 for both CDS job IDs, and:
- returns {:snooze, 300} if either job is still running (Oban
re-schedules without counting an attempt and releases the slot
immediately — a pod can keep dozens of tile-months in flight
without pinning workers)
- streams both GRIB files to disk via Req into: File.stream!,
decodes via Wgrib2.extract_grid_messages_from_file, bulk-inserts
via Era5BatchClient.decode_and_insert/6, deletes the row, and
DELETEs both completed jobs from CDS to free server-side quota
- if either leg CDS-reports failed, deletes the row + both CDS
jobs and returns {:error, reason}
Era5Client gains four testable building blocks:
submit_job/2 (bare POST → {:ok, job_id})
check_status/1 (GET → :running | {:done, src} | {:failed, reason})
download_source_to_file/3 (streams {:url, href} or writes {:body, bin})
delete_job/1 (DELETE /jobs/:id, treats 200/202/204/404 as :ok)
All Req calls now route through `era5_req_options` so tests can stub
CDS responses via Req.Test.stub(Era5Client, fn).
Era5MonthBatchWorker is retained as a thin forwarder to Era5SubmitWorker
so any jobs already in the :era5_batch queue on prod pods drain cleanly
on the next rolling deploy. Safe to delete in a follow-up.
Adds era5_cds_jobs table with a unique index on
(year, month, tile_lat, tile_lon) so duplicate submits collapse.
New queue config in runtime.exs:
era5_submit: local_limit 4, rate_limit 30/hour (burst protection)
era5_poll: local_limit 20 (polls are cheap GETs)
era5_batch: kept at 1 for legacy job drain, delete next cycle
Direct queries against prod (75M HRRR profiles, 16,864 soundings, 392k
surface obs, new hrrr_native_profiles table) drive these changes:
* Reinstate shallow-BL bonus as an HPBL multiplier on the refractivity
score (1.10× <200m → 0.78× ≥2000m). The Apr 11 "shallow BL bonus
removed" conclusion was an artifact of the prior matching strategy;
with the cleaner contact↔HRRR join (n=680) the binned data goes 230 km
avg at HPBL <200m vs 100 km at ≥2000m, monotonic across all bins.
* Add 6 missing bands (142, 145, 288, 322, 403, 411 GHz) so contacts in
those bands stop being silently dropped. Coefficients extrapolate
ITU-R P.676/P.838 trends from the existing 134/241 GHz entries.
* Bump ERA5 poll timeout 10 min → 1 hour and Era5MonthBatchWorker
max_attempts 3 → 5 so CDS slowness stops discarding tiles. Also dump
the full failure body when CDS omits the message field — the prior
"ERA5 job failed: nil" was masking real error reasons in oban_jobs.
* Add scripts/recalibrate_algo.py so this analysis can be re-run any
time new data lands without manual SQL. Reads PROP_PROD_DB_URL from
.envrc, drops a Markdown report into docs/algo-reports/.
* Append a dated Part 2c to algo.md documenting the corpus expansion,
the honest accounting of historical HRRR coverage (only ~1,020 of 58k
contacts are precision-matchable), and the empty era5/rtma/climatology
tables. Update the gaseous-absorption and rain-attenuation tables to
include the new bands.
Test suite: 1,335 tests, 0 failures.
IEM's RAOB endpoint stopped keeping Canadian stations current — most
stalled around Sep 2024 — which leaves a gap in refractivity/ducting
calibration over all the CW*/CY* stations already in weather_stations.
MSC's own tephi CSV is fixed-width and rendering-focused; the WMO TEMP
bulletins would need a full decoder. University of Wyoming serves the
same stations in a clean space-delimited format, is current, and
accepts the 3-letter station code (drop the leading C from Canadian
ICAO). Its output shape matches IemClient.parse_raob_json/1 exactly,
so it drops straight into Weather.upsert_sounding/2.
- New UwyoSoundingClient with URL builder, Req-based fetch_sounding,
and a fixed-width parse_sounding_html that extracts PRES/HGHT/TEMP/
DWPT/DRCT/SKNT from the <PRE> block and DateTime from the <H2> header.
- New CanadianSoundingFetchWorker: Oban batch worker that finds all
sounding stations whose code starts with C, picks the most recently
publishable 00Z or 12Z slot (90 min publish delay), calls UWYO per
station, and upserts with SoundingParams-derived refractivity/
ducting fields.
- Oban cron at 01:30Z and 13:30Z (dev + prod) to drive the worker.
- Req.Test plug wiring in config/test.exs.
- Captured Goose Bay fixture as test/support/fixtures/uwyo_sounding_yyr.html.
Also drops two implementation plans under docs/plans/:
- 2026-04-13-rdps-vertical-profiles.md: ~2 day plan for RDPS 10 km
Canadian ducting outside HRRR's Lambert footprint.
- 2026-04-13-hrdps-canadian-prop-grid.md: ~5 day plan for the full
HRDPS 2.5 km Canadian prop grid. Explicitly recommends doing RDPS
first.
TDD throughout, 19 new tests, 1318/1318 passing, credo strict clean.
The three BackfillEnqueueWorkerTest cases were timing out because the
default types list includes :era5, which cascades through inline Oban
into Era5Client.poll_and_download where Process.sleep blocks for the
full 60s test timeout. Era5Client uses bare Req.get with no plug hook,
so it can't be stubbed via Req.Test the way the other clients are. Pass
explicit non-ERA5 types in the three affected cases — ERA5 has its own
coverage and these tests don't assert anything era5-specific.
Also replace two `length(results) > 0` checks in asos_nudge_test with
`results != []` to silence credo warnings.
- Replace %Struct{} with Struct.t() in all @spec annotations
- Replace length(x) > 0 with x != [] in test assertions
- Fix multi-line spec struct references in weather.ex
- Spike docs at docs/research/hrrr_native_levels.md confirming files
are on AWS S3 for 5+ years, 50 hybrid levels, and include TKE and
SPFH needed for Phase 2 turbulence features. Architectural finding:
per-point on-demand fetching is impractical (~530 MB/file), so
the ingestion worker batches per (date, hour) instead.
- hrrr_native_profiles schema: arrays per level plus cached surface
scalars and placeholder columns for Phase 2/4 derived fields.
Strictly additive — the existing hrrr_profiles table is untouched.
- HrrrNativeClient: pure URL/message-list helpers, build_native_profile/1
that turns a parsed wgrib2 map into the schema shape (TDD'd).
- Exposed HrrrClient.download_grib_ranges/2 so the native client
reuses the existing parallel byte-range download + disk cache.
- HrrrNativeGridWorker: Oban worker keyed on {year, month, day, hour},
unique at :infinity, pulls distinct (lat, lon) points from contacts
in the ±30 min window, downloads the native grib2, extracts per
point, bulk-upserts.
- mix hrrr_native_backfill --limit N enqueues the top-N hours by
contact count.
Phase 1 gate still pending Task 1.6 (sanity-check backtest after
live data lands).
Per-point ERA5 fetches were tragically slow because every point-hour
triggered its own asynchronous CDS job (submit → poll → assemble →
download). For backfill this meant thousands of independent jobs
queued against Copernicus. The new path groups requests by calendar
month and a 2° × 2° lat/lon tile so one CDS cycle populates ~60k
profiles at once, and Oban uniqueness on (year, month, tile_lat,
tile_lon) collapses every duplicate enqueue.
- Era5BatchClient builds the monthly CDS requests, extracts every
(lat, lon, hour) from the GRIB2 blob with wgrib2, derives
refractivity params, and bulk-inserts in 2k-row chunks with
on_conflict: :nothing. fetch_month_into_db/1 short-circuits when
the month-tile already has any cached profile.
- Era5MonthBatchWorker runs the batch on the :era5 queue with a
generous backoff (10m → 1d) and the uniqueness key above.
- Era5FetchWorker is now a thin router: cache hit → :ok, cache miss
→ enqueue the month-batch for the point's tile-month and return.
No more per-point CDS calls.
- Wgrib2 grows extract_grid_messages/3 which preserves per-message
datetimes by parsing `d=YYYYMMDDHH[MMSS]` from the inventory, so a
single GRIB2 file carrying a whole month decodes correctly.
- The era5_backfill mix task enqueues month-tile batches directly.
Pruning used to only run at the end of a successful PropagationGridWorker
pass, so a stretch of failed compute jobs (k8s OOM kills, SIGTERM)
stopped prune from running and let the table accumulate ~5h of stale
rows. A dedicated PropagationPruneWorker now runs every 15 minutes on
its own Oban cron, and PropagationGridWorker also calls prune_old_scores
at the start of each run as a second safety net. Bumped the delete
timeout from 2m to 5m so the first catch-up pass has enough headroom.
The Era5FetchWorker now declares an Oban unique constraint on
{lat, lon, valid_time} for any job in available/scheduled/executing/
retryable, so two backfill runs targeting the same contact grid point
can no longer spawn parallel CDS requests for the same hour.
Because Oban OSS insert_all doesn't honor unique, ERA5 jobs are now
routed through Oban.insert/1 from ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker and the
era5_backfill mix task. Other worker types still use insert_all.
When ASOS/RAOB/IEMRE APIs return empty data, store a stub record so
dedup checks (has_surface_observations?, has_sounding?, has_iemre_observation?)
see coverage and don't recreate the same jobs on future backfill runs.
Backfill dashboard now has checkboxes to select which enrichment types
to process (HRRR, Weather, Terrain, IEMRE). Prevents weather jobs from
flooding the queue when only HRRR needs work.
- Migration renames table, column, all indexes, and FK constraints
- Contact schema now references "contacts" table
- TerrainProfile foreign key renamed from qso_id to contact_id
- All code and tests updated to use contact_id
- Radio.ensure_positions!/1 computes pos1/pos2/distance from grids
- Called in contact show page mount and enqueue_for_contact
- Migration backfills positions for existing contacts missing them
- Migration corrects enrichment statuses based on actual data presence
- Backfill dashboard includes contacts with grids but no positions
- New fields: hrrr_status, weather_status, terrain_status, iemre_status
with values: pending, queued, processing, complete, failed, unavailable
- EnrichmentStatus module defines valid state transitions
- Migration backfills: queued=true → complete, false → pending
- Workers set status on transitions (queued on enqueue, complete on finish)
- Show page reads status from contact struct, not computed dynamically
- Backfill dashboard queries status fields for accurate progress counts
- Remove cron-scheduled ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker (enrichment only on
submission, page view, or manual backfill)
- Partial indexes on status != 'complete' for fast unprocessed lookups
Rename all modules, functions, variables, routes, and UI text from
qso/qsos to contact/contacts. Database table stays as "qsos" to avoid
migration. Add /qsos -> /contacts redirects for old URLs.
- Add enqueue_for_qso/1 to directly enqueue weather/HRRR/terrain/IEMRE
jobs for a single user-submitted QSO (no cron, no bulk processing)
- Submit flow calls enqueue_for_qso instead of generic enqueue worker
- Add enrichment queues to prod config for on-demand processing
- Guard against HRRR fill values in store_hrrr_profiles (fixes badarith)
- Filter QSOs without pos2 in build_terrain_jobs
QSO enrichment now groups all path points by HRRR hour and creates
one batch job per hour instead of one job per point. The batch job
downloads the GRIB2 data once and extracts all needed points from
the same binary. Legacy single-point jobs are still supported for
backward compatibility.
Enqueue worker now gathers atmospheric data at pos1, midpoint, and pos2
along each QSO path instead of only pos1. Existing has_* guards prevent
duplicate fetches at each grid point.
- Add Radio.qso_path_points/1 for path point extraction
- Update hrrr_job_for_qso, iemre_job_for_qso, jobs_for_qso to iterate path points
- Refactor Weather into find_nearest_hrrr/3 and find_nearest_iemre/3
- Add hrrr_profiles_for_path/1 and iemre_for_path/1 query functions
- Add mix reset_enrichment task to trigger re-processing
- Add precip_1h_in and wx_codes fields to ASOS surface observations
- Add IEMRE reanalysis schema for radar-derived hourly precipitation
- Add IemreFetchWorker with exponential backoff and idempotency
- Integrate IEMRE enqueue into cron weather backfill pipeline
- All existing QSOs marked iemre_queued=false for automatic backfill
HTTP 404 means the HRRR data doesn't exist on NOAA S3 (pre-2014
dates, etc.) and will never succeed. Return {:cancel, reason}
instead of {:error, reason} so Oban stops retrying immediately.
Eliminates the external wgrib2 C tool dependency that blocked HRRR
processing. Implements Lambert Conformal projection, simple packing
(Template 5.0), complex packing with spatial differencing (Template 5.3),
and GRIB2 section parsing — enough to extract point values from HRRR
grid data using only Elixir.
Fetch elevation data along the path between two stations via the
Open-Meteo Elevation API (with Open-Topo-Data fallback), compute
Fresnel zone clearance, earth bulge, and knife-edge diffraction loss,
and store the results per QSO.
- terrain_profiles table with migration and TerrainProfile schema
- ElevationClient with batched API calls and fallback
- TerrainAnalysis with Fresnel/diffraction physics (ITU-R P.526-15)
- TerrainProfileWorker on Oban :terrain queue
- QsoWeatherEnqueueWorker enqueues terrain jobs automatically
- QSO show page displays verdict badge and collapsible elevation table
- Reorder show page: terrain, soundings, solar, HRRR, surface obs
- Fix Dockerfile wgrib2 build (add cmake dependency)
HRRR provides hourly 3km-resolution atmospheric profiles, filling the
temporal gaps (12-hourly soundings) and spatial gaps (only 9 sounding
stations) in our current weather data.
- Add hrrr_profiles table and hrrr_queued flag on QSOs
- HrrrClient fetches GRIB2 data via HTTP Range requests + wgrib2
- HrrrFetchWorker derives refractivity/ducting params via SoundingParams
- QsoWeatherEnqueueWorker now also enqueues HRRR jobs
- QSO show page displays HRRR section with collapsible profile
- Dockerfile builds wgrib2 from source for production
Adds haversine_km/4 to Radio context and backfill_distances/1 which
calculates distance_km from pos1/pos2 for QSOs missing it. Called
by QsoWeatherEnqueueWorker before enqueueing weather fetches.
Oban cron worker runs every 4 hours, finds QSOs without weather data,
discovers nearby ASOS/sounding stations, and enqueues WeatherFetchWorker
jobs. Migrations run automatically on app start in production.
IEM was returning 503s under 10 concurrent workers. Three fixes:
- Req transient retry with exponential backoff on IEM requests
- WeatherFetchWorker Oban job retries failed ASOS/RAOB fetches 2-3h later
with random jitter to avoid thundering herd
- Import script concurrency reduced 10→5, weather queue capped at 3
