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Author SHA1 Message Date
2fd88a94ea
fix(propagation): 7 pipeline bugs + validation harnesses + model improvements
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Phase A — 7 pipeline bugs:
- retain_scores_window: fix timeline self-deletion (NOTIFY payload run_time|valid_time)
- Rust/Elixir weight divergence: Rust loads band_weights.json at startup
- Aurora boost ported to Rust (Kp query + per-cell boost for bands <= 432 MHz)
- Commercial-link boost applied in Rust per-cell scoring
- f00 native gradient preferred over pressure-level gradient
- HRDPS files: greedy regex fixed, now visible to timeline/prune/retain
- GEFS/HRRR collision: GEFS namespace as .gefs.prop, merge at read

Phase B — Validation harness:
- scripts/validate_algo.py: out-of-sample Spearman rho(score,distance) + baselines
- docs/algo-reports/validation-2026-08-01.{json,md}

Phase C — Forecast-skill evaluation:
- scripts/validate_forecast.py: skill degradation by lead time (0h-24h)
- docs/algo-reports/forecast-2026-08-01.{json,md}

Phase D — Calibration + model improvements:
- recalibrate.py: validation gate before weight deploy
- Recalibrator: Nx.max(0.0) replaces Nx.abs(), L2 regularization, val-set integrity
- ML train/serve defaults unified; prop_compare null-handling skew fixed
- Latitude-aware sunrise: solar-declination sunrise_hour(lat,month) (Elixir + Rust)
- Path scoring: wind/sky/rain from HRRR (was ~30% of composite weight silent)
- Region multiplier documented as unvalidated; PWAT/refractivity doc-vs-code noted
- algo.md: synced scoring sections, marked retired features, D5/D6 changelog
- Credo: path_compute cyclomatic complexity bumped (6->10 fields) — informational only
2026-08-01 19:28:41 -05:00
079346a1b9 fix: resolve all 281 credo issues across source and test files
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- F-level (228): replace length/1 with Enum.count_until/2 or pattern
  matching; convert Enum.flat_map+if to Enum.filter+Enum.map; fix
  identity case in narr_client
- W-level (46): normalize dual atom/string key access in weather_layers,
  beacon_measurements, surface, skewt_live, contact_live/show; add
  :data_provider and weather-map assigns to ignored_assigns in credo
  config (consumed by child components credo can't trace); remove
  weak is_list assertion; remove explicit assert_receive timeout
- R-level (6): replace 'This module provides...' moduledocs with
  meaningful descriptions
- Also fix 4 compile-connected xref issues by deferring
  BandConfig.band_options() from module attribute to runtime

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-29 09:04:21 -05:00
1da78a80e5
feat(hrdps): activate Canadian propagation chain end-to-end
Stages 6, 7, 10 of the HRDPS plan, plus the Elixir read-side merge
that makes Rust's `.hrdps.prop` writes show up on /map.

Read side:

- `ScoresFile.path_for_hrdps/2` + `read_hrdps/2` — companions to the
  HRRR equivalents. Same decode path; different filename.
- `ScoresFile.read_bounds/3` now reads HRRR + HRDPS files and
  concatenates the cells. Files are disjoint by construction
  (Grid.hrdps_only_points excludes CONUS) so no de-dup needed.
- `ScoresFile.read_point/4` checks `.prop`, then `.hrdps.prop`, then
  legacy `.ntms` — first hit wins. Cells outside their owning region
  read as no-data in the other file's grid, so the order doesn't
  matter for correctness.
- `Propagation.warm_cache_and_broadcast/2` reads both files and
  merges before broadcasting to the cluster ScoreCache. A single
  missing file (HRDPS pre-cycle, HRRR briefly absent) is now OK —
  the cache warms with whichever side is available.

Activation:

- runtime.exs cron: HRDPS seed worker fires at HH:35 of each cycle
  hour (05:35Z, 11:35Z, 17:35Z, 23:35Z) — 5h after cycle, 30 min
  staggered from HRRR's */15 schedule.
- HrdpsGridWorker moduledoc updated: no longer dormant; Rust
  prop-grid-rs handles source='hrdps' rows.
- map_live North America bbox extended to (24.5, 60.0, -141.0, -52.0)
  for the out-of-coverage banner check; visitors anywhere in CONUS
  or the Canadian extent now stay banner-free.

Cleanup:

- mix hrdps.probe deleted — its risks are retired and the production
  HrdpsClient covers the same surface.

What's still in motion (not blocking the Canadian /map):

- Per-valid_time profile + scalar artifacts for HRDPS (would let
  /weather show Canadian temperature/refractivity layers). Rust
  pipeline currently skips those so the HRRR-written companion files
  aren't clobbered — separate stage when /weather UX is decided.
- FreshnessMonitor HRDPS staleness tracking — HRDPS has its own cron
  and a different cadence than HRRR; HRRR-stale logic doesn't apply
  cleanly. Defer until prod tells us what alarms we actually want.
2026-04-29 17:29:37 -05:00
d3ca2e5791
fix(map): dedupe duplicated forecast-timeline chips + extract Mechanism helpers
The main /map timeline was rendering each forecast hour twice
('Now 22:00' + '0h 22:00', '+1h 23:00' + '+1h 23:00', …).

Root cause: during the rolling `.ntms` → `.prop` rename window,
both extensions live on NFS for the same valid_time. `list_score_files`
matches either, so `list_valid_times_raw` mapped 2 files → 2 DateTimes
with no dedupe. Propagation.available_valid_times inherited the dup,
push_timeline pushed it to the JS hook, renderTimeline drew one chip
per entry — hence the visible duplicate.

Fix: `Enum.uniq` before the sort. Regression test writes a `.prop`
file, copies it as the same valid_time's `.ntms` legacy twin, and
asserts list_valid_times returns a single DateTime.

Also land a small refactor that was queued behind this: move the three
pure mechanism display helpers (label/1, badge_class/1, explainer/1)
out of the 2500-line contact_live/show.ex into a new
MicrowavepropWeb.ContactLive.Mechanism module. No behavior change — just
shrinks the LiveView and gives the display mapping a testable home.
2026-04-21 17:21:11 -05:00
410a1374fe
refactor(scores): rename file extension .ntms -> .prop with legacy reads
Score-grid files now land at `<band>/<iso>.prop` with a 4-byte "PROP"
magic header. Readers still accept the legacy `.ntms` extension and
"NTMS" magic so a rolling deploy doesn't invalidate any file already
on the shared NFS mount — legacy files age out through normal
retention.

Applied both sides of the seam: Elixir ScoresFile + regex parsers,
Rust scores_file writer + decoder. Updated the comments in all
modules that mention the extension (NotifyListener, Reconciler,
gefs_fetch_worker, map_live) and the runbook diagram. talos5 is a
DB host now, not a Rust worker — corrected the runbook accordingly.
2026-04-21 15:54:12 -05:00
e6952a42c8
Run PropagationGridWorker hourly, retain only the current chain's window
Flip the cron from every-3-hours to every-hour now that a full
f00-f18 chain runs in ~45-60 min instead of ~170 min. With the
:propagation queue's concurrency-of-2, a slow chain won't block
the next one — they interleave, and the file store's last-writer
-wins semantics give the newer run_time's analysis data naturally.

Add ScoresFile.retain_window/2 that deletes any file whose
valid_time falls outside [run_time, run_time + 18h]. Call it at
fh=18 of the chain so leftover files from the previous chain
(specifically the old f00 whose valid_time the new chain doesn't
overwrite because it advanced by one hour) are discarded
immediately instead of waiting for the 2h prune cron.

The step transition path is extracted to handle_step_transition/2
to keep the nesting under credo's limit and make the final-step
logic easier to read.
2026-04-14 15:26:58 -05:00
07ffcf52d7
Flip map read path to ScoresFile, stop writing grid HRRR profiles
Read-side cutover for the binary scores store and a companion
cleanup that removes the biggest remaining DB write from the hot
path.

Propagation.scores_at/3, available_valid_times/1, latest_valid_time/0,
latest_valid_time/1, earliest_valid_time/1, point_detail/4, and
point_forecast/3 all now prefer ScoresFile and fall back to the
propagation_scores table when a file is missing. The map render
path reads from /data/scores first; Postgres stays as a safety
net while dual-write is on. point_detail still pulls factors from
Postgres (analysis-hour rows only) and coalesces nil to an empty
map so the JS popup iterates cleanly.

replace_scores/2 is now gated by a postgres_writes_enabled? flag
(runtime env MICROWAVEPROP_SCORES_POSTGRES=false, or the
:propagation_scores_postgres app env key) so the binary-only path
can be benchmarked locally without the DB insert. Default stays
true.

PropagationGridWorker no longer calls store_hrrr_profiles —
persisting 92k grid rows × 19 forecast hours of JSONB profiles
was ~12 min of wall time per chain for a table only
AsosAdjustmentWorker read from. Per-contact HRRR enrichment
through HrrrFetchWorker still writes its own (is_grid_point:
false) rows. AsosAdjustmentWorker is disabled in all three cron
configs since its data source is gone.

DataCase resets the scores tree between tests so per-test
ScoresFile writes don't leak across cases, and ScoresFileTest
switches to async: false because it mutates the global
:propagation_scores_dir env.
2026-04-14 14:50:43 -05:00
690a3523e2
Dual-write propagation scores to binary files on /data
First step of the disk-backed scores migration from the DuckDB plan
doc. Ended up shipping the raw-binary variant instead of Parquet
because the data is disposable after ~2h — the ecosystem benefits
of Parquet only pay off for long-lived datasets, and the binary
path has zero new dependencies.

Microwaveprop.Propagation.ScoresFile writes one file per
(band_mhz, valid_time) tuple under the configured scores dir,
default /data/scores in prod and priv/dev_scores in dev. Layout is
a 33-byte header plus a dense n_rows × n_cols uint8 array (255 is
the no-data sentinel). The whole CONUS grid serializes to ~93 KB
per band, and writes use the temp-then-rename pattern so NFSv4
concurrent readers never see a partial file.

Propagation.replace_scores/2 now materializes the score stream
once and dual-writes: Postgres on the primary path, then one
ScoresFile per band as a best-effort follow-up (any file error is
logged but doesn't fail the DB write, so we can verify the file
path in prod before cutting readers over).

Propagation.prune_old_scores/0 also clears expired score files so
the existing 15-minute prune cron covers both storage layers.

Dev configuration points at priv/dev_scores/, added to .gitignore.
Test configuration points at a per-run tmp directory.
2026-04-14 14:36:55 -05:00