3 commits

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
Graham McIntire	2fd88a94ea	fix(propagation): 7 pipeline bugs + validation harnesses + model improvements ... Phase A — 7 pipeline bugs: - retain_scores_window: fix timeline self-deletion (NOTIFY payload run_time|valid_time) - Rust/Elixir weight divergence: Rust loads band_weights.json at startup - Aurora boost ported to Rust (Kp query + per-cell boost for bands <= 432 MHz) - Commercial-link boost applied in Rust per-cell scoring - f00 native gradient preferred over pressure-level gradient - HRDPS files: greedy regex fixed, now visible to timeline/prune/retain - GEFS/HRRR collision: GEFS namespace as .gefs.prop, merge at read Phase B — Validation harness: - scripts/validate_algo.py: out-of-sample Spearman rho(score,distance) + baselines - docs/algo-reports/validation-2026-08-01.{json,md} Phase C — Forecast-skill evaluation: - scripts/validate_forecast.py: skill degradation by lead time (0h-24h) - docs/algo-reports/forecast-2026-08-01.{json,md} Phase D — Calibration + model improvements: - recalibrate.py: validation gate before weight deploy - Recalibrator: Nx.max(0.0) replaces Nx.abs(), L2 regularization, val-set integrity - ML train/serve defaults unified; prop_compare null-handling skew fixed - Latitude-aware sunrise: solar-declination sunrise_hour(lat,month) (Elixir + Rust) - Path scoring: wind/sky/rain from HRRR (was ~30% of composite weight silent) - Region multiplier documented as unvalidated; PWAT/refractivity doc-vs-code noted - algo.md: synced scoring sections, marked retired features, D5/D6 changelog - Credo: path_compute cyclomatic complexity bumped (6->10 fields) — informational only	2026-08-01 19:28:41 -05:00
Graham McIntire	6aa91e7656	fix: April 2026 codebase review — address 13 bugs across propagation chain ... Each fix is covered by a regression test that fails on `main` and passes on this commit. Round 1 (initial review): * propagation: thread `latitude` into the conditions map so `score_season/4` actually picks up regional multipliers * hrrr_client / fetcher.rs: `nearest_hrrr_hour` rounds DOWN, never at a future cycle that NOAA hasn't published yet * radio: spherical-vector great-circle midpoint replaces the arithmetic mean — anti-meridian paths no longer fold to Greenwich * weather: `reconcile_weather_statuses` scales the longitude band by `1 / cos(lat)` so the bbox stays ~150 km wide at every latitude * radio/maidenhead: clamp 90°/180° below the field-bucket overflow so `from_latlon` never emits invalid characters like 'S' * prop_grid_rs/pipeline: merge HRRR + NEXRAD-derived rain rates and read `best_duct_freq_ghz` into `best_duct_band_ghz` so the Native Duct Boost actually fires * propagation/region (Elixir + Rust): inclusive upper bounds so points exactly at lat_max get the regional multiplier * weather/sounding_params (Elixir + Rust): drop the 10 m gradient floor so HRRR's thin near-surface layers stop hiding sharp ducts * weather/sounding_params: when the profile ends inside a duct, finalize it with the highest sample as the top instead of throwing it away (Rust port already correct) Round 2 (post-fix sweep): * radio + commercial: single canonical haversine in Radio (atan2 form); Commercial delegates instead of carrying a second copy that could disagree at threshold distances * prop_grid_rs/profiles_file: `snap_coords` matches Elixir's step-aware snap (`round(coord/0.125) * 0.125`, then 3-dp round) so Rust-keyed and Elixir-keyed profile maps land on the same cell * weather/grib2/wgrib2: `parse_lon_val_segment` uses `Float.parse` uniformly — wgrib2 dropping the trailing `.0` from a longitude no longer crashes the whole chain step	2026-04-25 10:52:51 -05:00
Graham McIntire	604140220a	Phase 7: Regionalized seasonal scoring ... Add Propagation.Region module with 8 CONUS climate zones (gulf_coast, southeast, southern_plains, corn_belt, northeast, desert_southwest, pacific_northwest, mountain_west) and per-region monthly seasonal adjustment multipliers. The scorer's score_season now takes lat/lon and applies a regional multiplier from Region.seasonal_adjustment on top of the band's seasonal_base + seasonal_adj. Gulf coast August gets a 1.15x boost (drier, better for ducting) while Corn Belt August gets a 0.80x penalty (corn evapotranspiration = miserable dewpoints). Adjustments are hand-tuned starting points from the meteorologist's qualitative guidance. Phase 9 recalibration will refine them from backtest data.	2026-04-10 08:39:01 -05:00