Commit graph

35 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
a66d3094ca Add contact edit approval system with admin review queue
Registered users can suggest edits to any contact's core fields
(callsigns, grids, band, mode, timestamp). Edits enter an admin
approval queue with field-by-field diff view. On approve, changes
are applied and enrichment re-enqueued if grids/band changed.
Users receive email notification on approve or reject.

Also updates dependabot.yml for mix ecosystem.
2026-04-11 16:15:49 -05:00
e8ae407be9 Add rain scatter prediction to map detail panel
When clicking a grid point, fetches the latest NEXRAD composite
reflectivity and identifies rain cells within 300 km that could
enable rain scatter contacts. Shows:
- Scatter classification (excellent/good/marginal/none)
- Top 3 cells with dBZ, distance, bearing, and relative signal
- Colored circle markers on the map at rain cell locations
- Markers sized by reflectivity, colored by intensity

Uses simplified bistatic radar equation accounting for reflectivity,
frequency-dependent scattering (Rayleigh/Mie), and R^4 path loss.
NEXRAD cells sampled every ~5 km within bounding box for efficiency.
2026-04-11 15:19:19 -05:00
8a39ae4411 Improve light mode contrast for score colors and map controls
- Darken tier colors for page elements (path, beacon, contact pages):
  EXCELLENT #00ffa3→#059669, GOOD #7dffd4→#0d9488,
  MARGINAL #ffe566→#ca8a04, POOR #ff9044→#ea580c,
  NEGLIGIBLE #ff4f4f→#dc2626
- Make mobile map controls fully opaque (bg-base-100 not /90)
- Map popups (dark background) keep original vibrant colors
2026-04-11 14:55:21 -05:00
7d68d13dcc Recalibrate scoring weights from gradient descent on 5000 QSOs
Loss improved 72% (0.42 → 0.12). Key changes:
- rain: 0.08 → 0.136 (+70%) — strongest discriminator
- season: 0.08 → 0.111 (+39%)
- wind: 0.05 → 0.08 (+60%)
- refractivity: 0.08 → 0.105 (+31%)
- time_of_day: 0.10 → 0.050 (-50%) — was overweighted by contest bias
- pressure: 0.15 → 0.103 (-31%)
- humidity: 0.18 → 0.124 (-31%)

Validated by native profile backtest (11,431 profiles):
theta_e_jump strongest native discriminator, duct_usable_* and
bulk_richardson dropped as dead features.
2026-04-11 13:20:00 -05:00
33fae7b7c9 Reduce memory pressure: Stream large collections, GC between phases
- Stream profile storage and score upsert instead of materializing
  full 20k+ item lists (propagation_grid_worker, propagation.ex)
- GC between forecast hours and store/compute phases to reclaim
  ~400 MB of grid data between steps
- Single-pass field extraction in scorer.ex path_integrated_conditions
  instead of 6 separate Enum traversals
- Eliminate intermediate merged map in fetch_grid by combining
  merge + profile build into one pipe
- Fix UUID bug: bingenerate → generate in native grid worker
  (same issue previously fixed in nexrad_worker)
2026-04-10 16:45:50 -05:00
e7a7ae073d Phase 9.3, 9.4, and Phase 3 NEXRAD pipeline
Task 9.3 - Weight recalibration via gradient descent:
- Recalibrator module fits logistic regression weights using Nx
- Trains on QSO positives vs random baseline negatives
- Cross-validates by month, normalizes weights to sum to 1.0
- Mix task: mix recalibrate_scorer --sample 5000 --epochs 2000

Task 9.4 - Side-by-side scorer comparison:
- ScorerDiff.compare/3 re-scores grid with old vs new weights
- Reports mean diff, regressions, improvements, per-band breakdown
- Mix task: mix scorer_diff --new-weights '{...}'

Phase 3 - NEXRAD ingestion pipeline:
- NexradClient fetches IEM n0q composite PNGs, extracts per-point
  box statistics (mean/max dBZ, texture variance)
- NexradObservation schema with unique (lat, lon, observed_at)
- NexradWorker on :nexrad queue for background processing
- nexrad_texture backtest feature in Features module
- mix nexrad_backfill --limit 200

All tasks added to AdminTaskWorker and Release for production use.
1116 tests, 0 failures.
2026-04-10 12:48:36 -05:00
604140220a Phase 7: Regionalized seasonal scoring
Add Propagation.Region module with 8 CONUS climate zones (gulf_coast,
southeast, southern_plains, corn_belt, northeast, desert_southwest,
pacific_northwest, mountain_west) and per-region monthly seasonal
adjustment multipliers.

The scorer's score_season now takes lat/lon and applies a regional
multiplier from Region.seasonal_adjustment on top of the band's
seasonal_base + seasonal_adj. Gulf coast August gets a 1.15x boost
(drier, better for ducting) while Corn Belt August gets a 0.80x
penalty (corn evapotranspiration = miserable dewpoints).

Adjustments are hand-tuned starting points from the meteorologist's
qualitative guidance. Phase 9 recalibration will refine them from
backtest data.
2026-04-10 08:39:01 -05:00
82bf248ab7 Phase 4: Ray-traced duct geometry
Duct module (Propagation.Duct):
- refractivity_profile/1: ITU-R P.453 N at each native level
- m_profile/1: modified refractivity M = N + 157*h(km)
- detect_ducts/1: find contiguous regions where dM/dh < 0, returning
  base/top height, thickness, and M-deficit per duct
- min_trapped_frequency_ghz/1: waveguide approximation (Bean & Dutton)
  for the minimum frequency a duct of given geometry can trap
- analyze/1: full pipeline from native profile to duct list + best
  trapped frequency across all ducts

Derive task updated to also compute ducts JSONB and best_duct_band_ghz
alongside the Phase 2 turbulence fields.

Backtest features: duct_thickness, best_duct_freq, duct_usable_10ghz,
duct_usable_24ghz, duct_usable_47ghz.

Real-data validation: 2022-08-20 12Z TX profile shows 0 ducts (M
increases monotonically) — correct for a well-mixed boundary layer
on a turbulent August afternoon (Ri=0.16).
2026-04-10 08:31:16 -05:00
864a91fc5c Phase 2 tasks 2.1-2.4: BL turbulence feature computations
Inversion detection module (Propagation.Inversion):
- find_inversion_top/1 walks the native profile to locate the first
  temperature inversion (surface-based or elevated)
- bulk_richardson/3 computes the Richardson number across the
  inversion layer (Ri < 0.25 = turbulent, > 1 = laminar/good)
- shear_magnitude/3 computes the wind shear vector magnitude
- potential_temperature/2 for θ = T*(P0/P)^0.286

Theta-e module (Weather.ThetaE):
- Bolton (1980) equivalent potential temperature
- dewpoint_from_spfh/2 via Magnus-Tetens inversion
- theta_e_jump/3 for the thermodynamic decoupling metric

mix hrrr_native_derive_fields populates inversion_top_m,
bulk_richardson, theta_e_jump_k, and shear_at_top_ms on existing
hrrr_native_profiles rows.

First real data: 2022-08-20 12Z TX profile shows inversion at
186 m, Ri = 0.16 (turbulent), θ_e jump = 0.33 K — consistent with
marginal propagation conditions at that hour.
2026-04-10 08:21:23 -05:00
cfaef287e4 Add 902-5760 MHz bands, centralize band options
New BandConfig entries for 902, 1296, 2304, 3456, 5760 MHz:
- All beneficial humidity effect (like 10 GHz)
- Near-zero gaseous absorption and rain attenuation
- Ranges: 902 MHz typical 400 km, 5760 MHz typical 220 km
- Same seasonal curves as 10 GHz (ducting-driven)

BandConfig.band_options/0 generates dropdown options from configs.
All pages (path, rover, submit) use centralized band_options instead
of hardcoded lists. Map page already used BandConfig.all_bands().
10 GHz remains the default on all pages.
2026-04-07 16:39:25 -05:00
7652e41971 Path-integrated HRRR scoring across pos1/mid/pos2
Contact scoring now uses all HRRR profiles along the path instead of
just pos1. Aggregation strategy:
- Best along path for beneficial factors (refractivity, pressure)
- Worst along path for harmful factors (rain, wind)
- Average for neutral factors (temp, dewpoint, PWAT, BL depth)

Scorer.path_integrated_conditions/2 merges multiple profiles into a
single conditions map. Falls back gracefully to single-profile scoring
when only one profile is available.
2026-04-07 12:04:16 -05:00
2eefe64c9b Update seasonal scores from sounding data, document commercial link patterns
Soundings (10,935): October has strongest gradients (-350 N/km) and
65.7% ducting, raised seasonal score 82→88. February ducting (20.2%)
exceeds January (14.8%), raised 32→40.

Commercial links (12,068 samples): 68 GHz shows 3.9 dB diurnal swing,
11 GHz shows 1.7 dB with inverted multipath pattern, 24 GHz remarkably
stable at 0.9 dB. Diurnal sensitivity is non-monotonic with frequency.

RAOB gradients avg -265 N/km vs HRRR -107 (2.5x stronger) — confirms
HRRR misses thin surface ducts that soundings resolve.
2026-04-07 11:45:44 -05:00
3cdd132f24 Data-driven algorithm refinements from full dataset analysis
Analyzed 37,925 HRRR-matched contacts from 58,367 total.

- Remove shallow BL bonus (score 82 for HPBL < 300m): data shows
  medium BL (1000-2000m) produces longest contacts (222 km avg),
  not shallow (210 km). Refractivity fallback now uses default score.

- Refine pressure scoring bins: add <980 mb tier (score 88), steeper
  gradient from low to high. Contacts at <970 mb avg 242.7 km vs
  184.1 km at 990-1000 mb.

- Update algo.md calibration stats (58,367 contacts, 41M HRRR
  profiles, 58,361 terrain profiles) and document dataset bias
  (99.5% Aug-Sep).

- Create updates.md with full binned analysis tables for all factors.
2026-04-07 11:15:49 -05:00
16883591b4
Database performance fixes and async backfill enqueue
- Fix score_pressure crash on nil pressure_mb (coastal HRRR points)
- Set 10-min timeout on grid score upsert transaction (was :infinity)
- Single DELETE for prune_old_scores instead of N queries in a loop
- Remove dead load_hrrr_refractivity that loaded 95k rows into nil map
- Pass selected_time to point_detail to skip latest_valid_time sub-query
- Batch station existence checks (1 query per path point, not per station)
- Batch solar index upserts via insert_all in chunks of 500
- Batch backfill_distances via single UPDATE FROM VALUES statement
- Add is_grid_point boolean + partial index to hrrr_profiles (replaces
  non-sargable modular arithmetic filter on every weather map query)
- Add partial index on contacts(qso_timestamp) WHERE pos1 IS NOT NULL
- Move backfill enqueue to Oban worker so UI returns immediately
2026-04-04 19:19:18 -05:00
2c16fd979d
Move ML deps to dev/test only, exclude from production build
- Nx, Axon, EXLA, Polaris deps restricted to only: [:dev, :test]
- model.ex and training mix tasks moved to lib_ml/ (compiled via
  elixirc_paths in dev/test only)
- load_ml_model uses Code.ensure_loaded? + apply/3 to avoid
  compile-time references to ML modules in production
- Verified: MIX_ENV=prod compiles clean with no ML warnings
2026-04-01 12:10:31 -05:00
02cb4fd67b
Integrate ML model into grid worker, QSO search, and UI improvements
ML Integration:
- Load trained model at app startup, cache compiled predict fn in persistent_term
- Grid worker uses batched ML prediction (10K chunks) when model loaded,
  falls back to algorithm scorer when not
- ML score replaces composite, algorithm factor scores preserved for detail view
- Fix process explosion: single EXLA call per chunk instead of per-grid-point

QSO Features:
- Callsign search (ILIKE on station1/station2) with trigram indexes
- Reciprocal QSO grouping (same pair, same band, same hour)
- Wider layout (max-w-7xl) for data table pages
- QSO Training Data link on map page

Infrastructure:
- Re-enable hourly propagation grid worker in dev
- Track ML model weights in git for Docker builds
- Add btree indexes on qsos (timestamp, band, distance_km)
- Remove nav icons from layout header
2026-04-01 10:14:22 -05:00
9537c97d1d
20-feature model with solar indices, sounding stability, and ducting
Add SFI, Kp max (solar), K-index, lifted index (sounding stability),
and ducting_detected (HRRR) as model features. Training now joins to
solar_indices and nearest sounding (within 6 hours) for both phases.
Model can learn solar/geomagnetic effects if they exist in the data.
2026-04-01 09:31:54 -05:00
07558d17eb
Two-phase training: pretrain on algorithm scores, fine-tune on QSOs
- 15 features: add surface_refractivity and latitude
- Bigger network: 128→64→32 (3 hidden layers)
- Phase 1: pretrain on 500K stratified algorithm scores (all seasons/locations)
- Phase 2: fine-tune on 57K real QSO-HRRR matched data (percentile target)
- Lower LR (0.0003) for fine-tuning to preserve pretrained knowledge
- Model.train accepts :initial_state option for transfer learning
2026-04-01 09:27:27 -05:00
08e4b9abdd
Bigger network (128→64→32) and percentile-based training target
- 3 hidden layers instead of 2 for better feature interaction learning
- Target is within-band distance percentile (0-1) instead of raw
  normalized distance — reduces noise from operator/equipment variation
2026-04-01 09:17:36 -05:00
69b5caf876
Normalize ML features to prevent NaN gradient explosion
Raw features had vastly different scales (pressure ~1013, sin/cos ~[-1,1])
causing gradient explosion. Normalize all atmospheric features to ~[0,1]
using known physical bounds. Add Polaris dep for optimizer.
2026-04-01 09:08:33 -05:00
5c9b43d619
Update analysis with solar time, refine algo.md time-of-day section
Solar time (longitude/15) replaces fixed CDT/CST offset for time-of-day
scoring. Correlation analysis shows dramatic improvement at higher
frequencies: 24 GHz rho jumps from 0.056 (UTC) to 0.188 (solar), and
75 GHz corrects from spurious -0.39 to physically correct +0.24.
2026-04-01 09:02:57 -05:00
c12f8cf5ed
Use local solar time for time-of-day scoring, add PWAT factor and pressure refinements
Score time-of-day per grid point using longitude/15 solar offset instead of
hardcoded CST/CDT. Add PWAT as 10th scoring factor. Refine pressure thresholds.
Update ML model and training pipeline to use local solar time.
2026-04-01 08:58:21 -05:00
fe5228b306
Prevent duplicate PropagationGridWorker jobs via Oban unique constraint
Worker now uses unique: [period: 3600, states: [:available, :scheduled,
:executing, :retryable]] so Oban atomically prevents duplicates.
FreshnessMonitor simplified — no longer does manual oban_jobs query.
2026-03-31 17:16:40 -05:00
8949920b7f
Add Nx/Axon/EXLA ML model skeleton for propagation prediction
13-feature feed-forward network (atmospheric + temporal + frequency).
Includes build, init, predict, encode_features, save/load to disk.
Model weights saved to priv/models/propagation_v1.nx (gitignored).
Not yet trained — scaffolding only.
2026-03-31 16:26:34 -05:00
c9112b9280
Recalibrate refractivity thresholds for HRRR gradient distribution
Previous thresholds (-500 to -60) were calibrated for radiosonde data.
HRRR profiles have coarser vertical resolution, with gradients clustering
between -40 and -130 N/km (median -70). Nearly all grid points were
falling through to the default score of 42, wasting the refractivity
factor. New thresholds (-200 to -40) spread across HRRR percentiles.
2026-03-31 16:08:15 -05:00
40d1fa03aa
QSO submission triggers enrichment directly, fix prod badarith crash
- Add enqueue_for_qso/1 to directly enqueue weather/HRRR/terrain/IEMRE
  jobs for a single user-submitted QSO (no cron, no bulk processing)
- Submit flow calls enqueue_for_qso instead of generic enqueue worker
- Add enrichment queues to prod config for on-demand processing
- Guard against HRRR fill values in store_hrrr_profiles (fixes badarith)
- Filter QSOs without pos2 in build_terrain_jobs
2026-03-31 12:29:39 -05:00
105298fc3f
Add FreshnessMonitor GenServer to detect and fill stale propagation data
Replaces the one-shot startup Task with a GenServer that checks every
5 minutes whether propagation scores are older than 2 hours. If stale,
enqueues a PropagationGridWorker job (with dedup check to avoid double
queuing). Disabled in test env to avoid SQL Sandbox conflicts.
2026-03-31 12:08:51 -05:00
66639e3717
Increase grid to 0.125 degrees with smooth canvas overlay
Replace circle markers with a canvas tile layer that renders smooth,
flowing colored regions using bilinear interpolation between grid
points. Colors interpolate between tiers for gradients. ~95k grid
points at 0.125 degree resolution with wgrib2 extraction.
2026-03-31 08:52:07 -05:00
b7446e83f5
Use wgrib2 for HRRR grid extraction (7s vs 80+ minutes)
Add Wgrib2 module that shells out to wgrib2 binary for fast GRIB2
grid extraction using -lola (nearest-neighbor to regular lat-lon grid).
Falls back to pure-Elixir decoder if wgrib2 is not installed.

Also: parallel GRIB2 range downloads, merge adjacent byte ranges,
skip corrupt messages instead of failing, pressure fetch is optional.
2026-03-31 08:33:29 -05:00
c56f349c86
Reduce grid resolution to 0.5 degrees (~6k points)
95k points at 0.125 degree resolution caused the GRIB2 extraction to
take too long. 0.5 degree (~55 km) resolution gives 6k points which
completes in under a minute. Can increase resolution later once the
extraction is optimized.
2026-03-31 07:22:42 -05:00
8d75f188f6
Merge branch 'worktree-agent-a3cdfb99' into feature/propagation-map 2026-03-30 17:00:40 -05:00
2698f33cd3
Add propagation scoring algorithm with 9 weighted factors
Implements BandConfig (data-driven thresholds for 8 bands) and Scorer
module with humidity, time-of-day, TD depression, refractivity, sky
cover, season, wind, rain attenuation, and pressure trend scoring.
Composite score applies BandConfig weights (sum to 1.0) across all
factors, producing 0-100 score per band. 10 GHz uses beneficial
humidity/ducting model; 24 GHz+ uses harmful absorption model.
2026-03-30 16:57:38 -05:00
8dd289580d
Merge branch 'worktree-agent-ae6c8945' into feature/propagation-map 2026-03-30 16:50:42 -05:00
775dff4263
Add CONUS grid definition and propagation score schema
Define 0.125-degree CONUS grid (25-50N, 125-66W) for propagation
scoring and create propagation_scores table with composite unique
index on lat/lon/valid_time/band_mhz for upsert support.
2026-03-30 16:50:06 -05:00
60461ffe32
Add band configuration module for propagation scoring
Single source of truth for all scoring parameters: weights, thresholds,
seasonal tables, and per-band coefficients for 8 microwave bands
(10G through 241G). Includes ITU-R P.838-3 rain attenuation
coefficients, humidity effects, refractivity scoring thresholds,
and sunrise/tier definitions.
2026-03-30 16:49:21 -05:00