- Update .tool-versions to elixir 1.20.0-otp-29 / erlang 29.0.1
- Update all hex dependencies
- Remove unused aliases in path_compute.ex and rover_planning_live/show.ex
- Fix Oban unique states to include :suspended (use :incomplete group)
The producer-only path left older hours stuck at 0% HRRR coverage
forever once their fetch tasks drained: the rolling-window cron only
re-passes the prior hour, so manual lookback runs (or any
out-of-window hour) wrote NULL samples + enqueued tasks, then never
re-ran to UPSERT the now-landed HRRR data.
Fix: split the responsibility cleanly.
* CalibrationSampler.build_for_hour/1 now returns
%{upserted: int, missing_hrrr_cells: int} so callers know whether
the producer enqueued anything (i.e. whether a follow-up makes
sense). Spec-tightened with a new @type result.
* PskrCalibrationWorker, after each hour's sampler pass, schedules a
follow-up of itself for that exact hour 10 min later when missing
> 0. The follow-up carries args %{"hour_utc" => ..., "_follow_up"
=> true}; the sentinel prevents follow-ups from chaining further
follow-ups (rolling-window cron is the safety net).
Tests:
* Updated 4 existing sampler tests to the new map return shape.
* Moved the follow-up assertions from the sampler suite into the
worker suite where they belong (sampler is now scheduling-free).
* Added 3 worker tests: schedules-when-missing, no-schedule-when-
covered, follow-up-doesn't-chain.
3313 tests + 228 properties, 0 failures.
Old design fired hourly at HH:25 and built one whole hour of cells
in a single batch. During PSKR peaks (50k+ spots/hour) that batch
held the DB pool long enough to look like a backlog, and a pod
restart between fires lost a full hour because the next cron only
caught the most-recent-prev hour.
- Default window is now current hour + 1 prior. Every 5-min fire
spreads work across the in-flight hour and always covers the
boundary without waiting for the next cron tick.
- lookback_hours arg widens the window for catch-up
(e.g. {"lookback_hours": 24} sweeps the last day after an
outage).
- Unique period 3600 → 240 so consecutive 5-min cron fires actually
slot in.
UPSERT is already idempotent so the ~12 redundant passes per hour
cost only the read+merge. Latency from spot ingestion to sample
creation drops from up-to-60min to ≤5min.
PSK Reporter is now an always-on data feed, so the calibration
corpus that recalibration will eventually train against can grow
hourly from when the firehose started. One row per (hour, band,
0.125° midpoint cell) joins three sources:
* `pskr_spots_hourly` — observed spot density (truth signal)
* `hrrr_profiles` nearest match at the cell midpoint at hour
boundary (atmospheric features: T, Td, PWAT, P, dN/dh, HPBL,
ducting flag)
* `geomagnetic_observations` latest Kp at the hour (space weather)
Predicted scores are intentionally NOT stored — they're a function
of the algorithm version under evaluation. Storing only features
keeps the corpus stable across every weight refit; the recalibrator
computes predictions on demand.
Components:
* Migration `20260504210756_create_pskr_calibration_samples` —
new table + unique index on (hour, band, midpoint_lat, lon),
plus a midpoint spatial index on `pskr_spots_hourly` to keep
the join cheap.
* `Pskr.CalibrationSample` — schema mirror of the table with
the same `(hour, band, midpoint_lat, lon)` unique constraint.
* `Pskr.CalibrationSampler.build_for_hour/1` — pulls all spots
for the hour, snaps midpoints to the propagation grid (0.125°),
builds an in-memory HRRR index over a ±0.07°/±60 min window,
and bulk-upserts samples. Idempotent — re-runs upsert.
* `Workers.PskrCalibrationWorker` — Oban cron entry on the
`:backfill_enqueue` queue. Default args target the previous
full hour; explicit `hour_utc` arg reruns any hour.
* Cron `25 * * * *` — fires past HRRR analysis publish window
(~HH:50→HH:05) and PSKR aggregator's 60s flush.
Forward-only: PSKR has no historical archive, so the corpus only
grows from when the feed started. Recalibration weight refits
should wait for ~30 days / ~10k samples to cover diurnal and
synoptic variability.
Tests cover cell-snapping, HRRR feature joining, Kp stamping,
median-distance aggregation, mode dedup, idempotent reruns, and
the worker's default-hour and explicit-hour args (12 new tests,
all passing).
Backfill pipeline untouched — none of these changes feed into
contact enrichment.
