`Pskr.Recalibrator.run/0` reads `pskr_calibration_samples`, bins
each sample per (band × feature), and writes spot-density stats to
`pskr_feature_bins` so an operator can read whether a feature
actually discriminates propagation at the threshold granularity
the scorer uses.
Bins, not regression: `BandConfig` already encodes scoring as
discrete thresholds, so the bin output matches that shape and an
operator can copy adjusted thresholds directly without translating
from regression coefficients.
Self-healing: corpus too thin ⇒ run row written with status
`skipped_insufficient_data` and the analysis is a no-op until next
fire. `min_total_samples = 1000` (≈ 4-5 days of CONUS PSKR
activity); per-band threshold is 100. Both surface in the run row's
`notes`.
Auto-applies nothing. Weight changes still go through human review
of `BandConfig.@band_configs` and a code commit. The recalibrator
is a read-only analyst that stays out of the production scoring
path.
Features binned (matching the scorer's discriminating fields):
* pwat_mm — humidity U-shape candidate
* hpbl_m — boundary layer (mechanism vs scoring re-eval)
* min_refractivity_gradient — refractivity threshold validation
* surface_pressure_mb — pressure-front proxy
* kp_index — aurora boost magnitude tuning
Schema: two tables.
* `pskr_recalibration_runs` — one row per fire with corpus
stats, status, notes
* `pskr_feature_bins` — one row per (run, band, feature, bin)
with sample_count, spot_count_total/avg/p50/p90
Cron: `0 4 * * 0` (Sundays 04:00 UTC, off-peak, post-climatology).
Manual reruns enqueue with no args.
Tests cover the empty-corpus skip path, sub-threshold totals,
per-band threshold gating, the actual bin emission, nil-feature
handling, spot-count averaging, and the always-records-a-run
audit invariant. 8 new tests, 3282 total passing.
Backfill pipeline untouched.
PSK Reporter is now an always-on data feed, so the calibration
corpus that recalibration will eventually train against can grow
hourly from when the firehose started. One row per (hour, band,
0.125° midpoint cell) joins three sources:
* `pskr_spots_hourly` — observed spot density (truth signal)
* `hrrr_profiles` nearest match at the cell midpoint at hour
boundary (atmospheric features: T, Td, PWAT, P, dN/dh, HPBL,
ducting flag)
* `geomagnetic_observations` latest Kp at the hour (space weather)
Predicted scores are intentionally NOT stored — they're a function
of the algorithm version under evaluation. Storing only features
keeps the corpus stable across every weight refit; the recalibrator
computes predictions on demand.
Components:
* Migration `20260504210756_create_pskr_calibration_samples` —
new table + unique index on (hour, band, midpoint_lat, lon),
plus a midpoint spatial index on `pskr_spots_hourly` to keep
the join cheap.
* `Pskr.CalibrationSample` — schema mirror of the table with
the same `(hour, band, midpoint_lat, lon)` unique constraint.
* `Pskr.CalibrationSampler.build_for_hour/1` — pulls all spots
for the hour, snaps midpoints to the propagation grid (0.125°),
builds an in-memory HRRR index over a ±0.07°/±60 min window,
and bulk-upserts samples. Idempotent — re-runs upsert.
* `Workers.PskrCalibrationWorker` — Oban cron entry on the
`:backfill_enqueue` queue. Default args target the previous
full hour; explicit `hour_utc` arg reruns any hour.
* Cron `25 * * * *` — fires past HRRR analysis publish window
(~HH:50→HH:05) and PSKR aggregator's 60s flush.
Forward-only: PSKR has no historical archive, so the corpus only
grows from when the feed started. Recalibration weight refits
should wait for ~30 days / ~10k samples to cover diurnal and
synoptic variability.
Tests cover cell-snapping, HRRR feature joining, Kp stamping,
median-distance aggregation, mode dedup, idempotent reruns, and
the worker's default-hour and explicit-hour args (12 new tests,
all passing).
Backfill pipeline untouched — none of these changes feed into
contact enrichment.
Spots that include subsquare (EM12kl), extended-square (EM12kl37),
or extended-extended-subsquare (EM12kl37ab) precision now keep
that resolution end-to-end. Previously we truncated everything to
4 chars at parse time, which collapsed distinct paths into the same
row whenever two spotters shared a field.
The aggregation key uses the full grid as reported, so two
spotters in different subsquares of `EM12` produce two rows —
correct, since they are physically different paths. Any spot that
fails Maidenhead validation (odd length, illegal char at position
N) is still dropped via the same error path.
Storage normalizes to uppercase so the unique index doesn't split
on case. Maidenhead.valid?/1 already accepts both cases on input.
emqtt's transitive `quicer` dep needs CMake + msquic submodule
clones to build, which the slim Debian builder image doesn't ship —
the prod CI build was failing inside `mix deps.compile`. Tortoise311
is the obvious pure-Elixir alternative but it bundles a
gen_state_machine + retry/inflight stack we don't use because we're
subscribe-only at QoS 0.
Implementing the wire protocol inline is ~150 lines in
`Microwaveprop.Pskr.Mqtt` (CONNECT/SUBSCRIBE/PINGREQ/DISCONNECT
builders, CONNACK/PUBLISH/SUBACK/PINGRESP parser, varint codec).
Pskr.Client now uses :gen_tcp with `active: :once` framing,
buffers partial reads, schedules its own keepalive, and parses
inbound packets in a tight loop.
Drops `BUILD_WITHOUT_QUIC=1` from the Dockerfile — no longer
relevant since there's no native dep at all in the build chain
now.
Subscribes to mqtt.pskreporter.info:1883 over plain TCP and folds
every reception report into hourly aggregates per
(band, sender_grid_4, receiver_grid_4). Each spot is the empirical
"propagation actually occurred on this path right now" signal we'll
correlate against HRRR atmospheric state to recalibrate the scoring
weights. Aggregating at the path-hour bucket collapses 50-reporter
QSOs to one row instead of 50.
Topic filter anchors on USA (DXCC 291) on either sender or receiver
side so the broker pre-filters out everything outside our HRRR
domain. Bands subscribed: VHF and up (6m, 2m, 70cm, 23cm, +
microwave) — HF is dominated by ionospheric propagation, which this
project doesn't model.
Pskr.Client cluster-elects a singleton via :global.register_name —
all replicas start the GenServer but only one connects to MQTT;
the rest stay in :standby and watch for the leader's nodedown to
re-run election. Off in dev/test, on by default in prod
(PSKR_MQTT_ENABLED=false as kill-switch).
Pskr.Aggregator buffers in memory keyed by Pskr.path_key/1 and
flushes every 60s via Repo.insert_all/3 with an additive
ON CONFLICT (count summed, SNR envelope by GREATEST/LEAST,
modes unioned via unnest+DISTINCT). Idempotent across overlapping
flushes and across leader handover.
Dockerfile sets BUILD_WITHOUT_QUIC=1 — emqtt's transitive quicer
dep wants CMake + OpenSSL headers we'd otherwise have to add to
the builder image just to never use QUIC over plain MQTT. Base
image is unchanged; the new dep compiles cleanly into the existing
prop-base runtime.
