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Author SHA1 Message Date
604140220a Phase 7: Regionalized seasonal scoring
Add Propagation.Region module with 8 CONUS climate zones (gulf_coast,
southeast, southern_plains, corn_belt, northeast, desert_southwest,
pacific_northwest, mountain_west) and per-region monthly seasonal
adjustment multipliers.

The scorer's score_season now takes lat/lon and applies a regional
multiplier from Region.seasonal_adjustment on top of the band's
seasonal_base + seasonal_adj. Gulf coast August gets a 1.15x boost
(drier, better for ducting) while Corn Belt August gets a 0.80x
penalty (corn evapotranspiration = miserable dewpoints).

Adjustments are hand-tuned starting points from the meteorologist's
qualitative guidance. Phase 9 recalibration will refine them from
backtest data.
2026-04-10 08:39:01 -05:00
3cdd132f24 Data-driven algorithm refinements from full dataset analysis
Analyzed 37,925 HRRR-matched contacts from 58,367 total.

- Remove shallow BL bonus (score 82 for HPBL < 300m): data shows
  medium BL (1000-2000m) produces longest contacts (222 km avg),
  not shallow (210 km). Refractivity fallback now uses default score.

- Refine pressure scoring bins: add <980 mb tier (score 88), steeper
  gradient from low to high. Contacts at <970 mb avg 242.7 km vs
  184.1 km at 990-1000 mb.

- Update algo.md calibration stats (58,367 contacts, 41M HRRR
  profiles, 58,361 terrain profiles) and document dataset bias
  (99.5% Aug-Sep).

- Create updates.md with full binned analysis tables for all factors.
2026-04-07 11:15:49 -05:00
c12f8cf5ed
Use local solar time for time-of-day scoring, add PWAT factor and pressure refinements
Score time-of-day per grid point using longitude/15 solar offset instead of
hardcoded CST/CDT. Add PWAT as 10th scoring factor. Refine pressure thresholds.
Update ML model and training pipeline to use local solar time.
2026-04-01 08:58:21 -05:00
c9112b9280
Recalibrate refractivity thresholds for HRRR gradient distribution
Previous thresholds (-500 to -60) were calibrated for radiosonde data.
HRRR profiles have coarser vertical resolution, with gradients clustering
between -40 and -130 N/km (median -70). Nearly all grid points were
falling through to the default score of 42, wasting the refractivity
factor. New thresholds (-200 to -40) spread across HRRR percentiles.
2026-03-31 16:08:15 -05:00
2698f33cd3
Add propagation scoring algorithm with 9 weighted factors
Implements BandConfig (data-driven thresholds for 8 bands) and Scorer
module with humidity, time-of-day, TD depression, refractivity, sky
cover, season, wind, rain attenuation, and pressure trend scoring.
Composite score applies BandConfig weights (sum to 1.0) across all
factors, producing 0-100 score per band. 10 GHz uses beneficial
humidity/ducting model; 24 GHz+ uses harmful absorption model.
2026-03-30 16:57:38 -05:00