Phase 3 NEXRAD spike: IEM n0q composite available at 5-min cadence
back to 2022+. Compression-ratio proxy shows afternoon images have
13-81% more texture than dawn (directionally correct), but the n0q
product thresholds out the faint clear-air returns needed for BL
stability detection. Parked until MRMS or Level III products can be
investigated. See docs/research/nexrad_spike.md.
Phase 6: hrrr_climatology table aggregating surface_temp_c by
(lat, lon, month, hour) from the 42M+ hrrr_profiles grid-point
rows. mix hrrr_climatology builds it via a single SQL GROUP BY +
upsert. Backtest.Features.temperature_anomaly computes current_temp
minus climatological mean — the meteorologist's "temperature
deviation above normal" predictor for summer afternoon enhancement.
- Spike docs at docs/research/hrrr_native_levels.md confirming files
are on AWS S3 for 5+ years, 50 hybrid levels, and include TKE and
SPFH needed for Phase 2 turbulence features. Architectural finding:
per-point on-demand fetching is impractical (~530 MB/file), so
the ingestion worker batches per (date, hour) instead.
- hrrr_native_profiles schema: arrays per level plus cached surface
scalars and placeholder columns for Phase 2/4 derived fields.
Strictly additive — the existing hrrr_profiles table is untouched.
- HrrrNativeClient: pure URL/message-list helpers, build_native_profile/1
that turns a parsed wgrib2 map into the schema shape (TDD'd).
- Exposed HrrrClient.download_grib_ranges/2 so the native client
reuses the existing parallel byte-range download + disk cache.
- HrrrNativeGridWorker: Oban worker keyed on {year, month, day, hour},
unique at :infinity, pulls distinct (lat, lon) points from contacts
in the ±30 min window, downloads the native grib2, extracts per
point, bulk-upserts.
- mix hrrr_native_backfill --limit N enqueues the top-N hours by
contact count.
Phase 1 gate still pending Task 1.6 (sanity-check backtest after
live data lands).
Add Microwaveprop.Backtest: a feature-evaluation framework that runs
a (lat, lon, valid_time) -> float function over the historical QSO
corpus and a matched random-time baseline, reporting distribution
statistics, distance-binned lift, and band-stratified lift.
Adds four baseline feature wrappers around the current scorer inputs
(naive_gradient, td_depression, time_of_day, pressure), a mix backtest
CLI, and the first set of baseline reports under priv/backtest_reports
so downstream phases have a frozen reference point to compare against.
Wire up the Oban Pro Smart engine in base + runtime config and add the
Pro migration (oban_producers, oban_crons, oban_queues tables + the
v1.6 partition/workflow index additions on oban_jobs).
On the Smart engine the era5_batch queue now has a global_limit of 4
in-flight jobs across the cluster and a rate_limit of 10 jobs per hour
so slow Copernicus CDS submit/poll cycles can't exhaust our daily
request budget when a backfill kicks off.
Contacts now carry a user_id FK to users. When a logged-in user
submits a contact (single or CSV upload), the server injects their
user_id and the email from their account into the submission params,
and the visible email input is replaced with a hidden input holding
that value — logged-in users don't have to retype their address.
The submission changeset now requires at least one of user_id or
submitter_email (rather than hard-requiring email), and email format
is only validated when one is actually present.
Reworded the submit-page blurb from "10 GHz to 241 GHz" to "902 MHz
and up" so it matches the actual band coverage of the project.
Beacons can now record a directional bearing ("omni" or 0-360 degrees)
and a beamwidth in degrees. The keying list grows from {on_off, fsk}
to include FM Voice, WSPR, and the full Q65A/B/C/D/E × 15/30/60/120
family, grouped via optgroups in the submission form.
- Anonymous users can submit beacons (held pending admin approval)
- Added notes field to beacons (textarea on form, shown on detail page)
- Added Beacons link to /map sidebar nav (mobile + desktop),
removed stale Rover Planner link
- Moved /backfill to /admin/backfill under the admin live_session
- Beacon detail map zooms in two extra levels after fitBounds
Non-admin users can now submit beacons but they are held in an
unapproved state until an admin approves them. Only approved beacons
appear in the public list; pending submissions are shown in a separate
admin-only section on /beacons with Approve and Delete actions. The
show page surfaces a pending badge and an admin-only Approve button
when viewing an unapproved beacon.
Also formats EIRP (mW) on the index page without scientific notation.
- Add on_the_air boolean to beacons (default true); surfaced as a
checkbox on the form, a badge on the index, and in the detail list.
- Render a Leaflet map on the beacon show page with a marker at the
beacon's lat/lon tooltipped with callsign + frequency. Marker is
green when on air, gray when off.
- Compute and draw a reception-range estimate as concentric signal-
strength rings. New Microwaveprop.Beacons.RangeEstimate solves a
link budget (FSPL + O2/H2O absorption from BandConfig) at five RX
thresholds (-100 to -145 dBm), then scales by 0.5 + score/100 from
the latest Propagation.point_detail at the beacon's grid square, so
current HRRR conditions shift the rings in or out.
- Re-enable the hourly PropagationGridWorker cron and freshness
monitor in dev.exs so dev actually has HRRR-backed scores to feed
the new estimator.
- Rename beacons.height_m to height_ft; migration converts existing
values (m * 3.28084). Form/list/show labels updated.
- Beacon changeset now fills lat/lon from the grid when they're blank
(previously only the reverse worked). Lat/lon and grid inputs are no
longer marked required in the form — enter one side and the other
populates on blur via phx-change.
- Rename beacons.power_watts to power_mw (migration multiplies existing
values by 1000); form/list/show all relabeled to "Power (mW)"
- Fix Add-monitor button alignment on /users/settings by rendering the
label above and putting the input and button in a plain flex row so
the input wrapper margin no longer offsets the button
- Extend the settings page re-auth window from 10 minutes to 24 hours
Beacons:
- Scaffolded with phx.gen.live then reworked so reads are public
and mutations go through a live_session gated by the new
:require_admin on_mount hook in UserAuth
- Beacon schema stores frequency (MHz), callsign, grid, lat/lon,
power (W), and height above ground (m); grid auto-derives from
lat/lon when left blank via Maidenhead.from_latlon
- Adds Maidenhead.from_latlon/3 so we can compute grids locally
instead of hitting an external API
Users admin page:
- /users and /users/:id/edit (admin-only) for listing, editing
(callsign/name/email/is_admin), and deleting other users
- Adds Accounts.list_users, admin_update_user, delete_user, and
a dedicated admin_changeset on the User schema
- Nav gains a "Users" link for admins and a "Beacons" link for
everyone
Adds a boolean is_admin column (default false) and has the
registration changeset auto-set it to true when the email matches
graham@mcintire.me (case-insensitive). The migration also backfills
the flag for an existing row with that email.
Users can now register beacon monitors on the settings page. Each
monitor gets a unique random token the remote program will use to
authenticate its reports. Name is the only user-supplied field for
now; more will be added as the monitor protocol is defined.
Also adds :gen_smtp to deps. Swoosh's SMTP adapter depends on
:mimemail which lives in that package, and production was 500'ing
when trying to send confirmation emails without it.
Generated Accounts context, User schema, and controllers via
phx.gen.auth. Adapted it for password-only login with required
email confirmation:
- Users have callsign (unique, uppercased), name, email, password
- Registration form fields: callsign, name, email, password, confirm
- Magic-link login path removed; login is email + password only
- After register, a confirmation email is sent and login is blocked
until the account is confirmed via the token URL
- Confirmation link logs the user in on first use
- SMTP2GO configured as the outgoing mailer in k8s prod
- Fix score_pressure crash on nil pressure_mb (coastal HRRR points)
- Set 10-min timeout on grid score upsert transaction (was :infinity)
- Single DELETE for prune_old_scores instead of N queries in a loop
- Remove dead load_hrrr_refractivity that loaded 95k rows into nil map
- Pass selected_time to point_detail to skip latest_valid_time sub-query
- Batch station existence checks (1 query per path point, not per station)
- Batch solar index upserts via insert_all in chunks of 500
- Batch backfill_distances via single UPDATE FROM VALUES statement
- Add is_grid_point boolean + partial index to hrrr_profiles (replaces
non-sargable modular arithmetic filter on every weather map query)
- Add partial index on contacts(qso_timestamp) WHERE pos1 IS NOT NULL
- Move backfill enqueue to Oban worker so UI returns immediately
ON CONFLICT now only replaces score/factors when the score actually changed,
avoiding dead tuple generation for the ~80% of grid points that don't change
between consecutive HRRR runs.
Migration sets aggressive autovacuum on propagation_scores: zero cost delay,
2000 cost limit, 1% scale factor. The table was at 72GB with 108M dead rows
because default autovacuum couldn't keep pace with 14M upserts per hour.
- Database triggers on contacts and oban_jobs fire pg_notify on
status/state changes
- RepoListener GenServer subscribes via Postgrex.Notifications and
broadcasts to PubSub
- Backfill dashboard subscribes to PubSub instead of 2-second polling
- Eliminates periodic SELECT queries, updates arrive instantly
- Migration renames table, column, all indexes, and FK constraints
- Contact schema now references "contacts" table
- TerrainProfile foreign key renamed from qso_id to contact_id
- All code and tests updated to use contact_id
- Radio.ensure_positions!/1 computes pos1/pos2/distance from grids
- Called in contact show page mount and enqueue_for_contact
- Migration backfills positions for existing contacts missing them
- Migration corrects enrichment statuses based on actual data presence
- Backfill dashboard includes contacts with grids but no positions
- New fields: hrrr_status, weather_status, terrain_status, iemre_status
with values: pending, queued, processing, complete, failed, unavailable
- EnrichmentStatus module defines valid state transitions
- Migration backfills: queued=true → complete, false → pending
- Workers set status on transitions (queued on enqueue, complete on finish)
- Show page reads status from contact struct, not computed dynamically
- Backfill dashboard queries status fields for accurate progress counts
- Remove cron-scheduled ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker (enrichment only on
submission, page view, or manual backfill)
- Partial indexes on status != 'complete' for fast unprocessed lookups
Adds a tabbed UI with single-contact form and CSV upload. Users can
download a sample CSV, upload their file, and get partial import with
per-row error reporting. Enrichment jobs enqueue for each imported contact.
- Overlay HRRR duct layers on elevation profile chart (green bands)
- Add flagged_invalid field to contacts with toggle button on detail page
- Fix prune_old_grid_profiles to only delete 0.125° grid profiles,
preserving QSO-linked HRRR data at arbitrary positions
- Auto-enqueue HRRR fetch when viewing contact without HRRR data (<48h)
- Compact solar conditions and contact details layout
- Add band/mode/distance info line to elevation profile section
- All menus and UI text now say Contacts instead of QSOs
- Add 68, 122, 134, 241 GHz bands to submit form and validation
- Add info box on submit page explaining why contacts matter
- Larger submit button with icon
- Make HRRR partition migration idempotent for partial re-runs
ML Integration:
- Load trained model at app startup, cache compiled predict fn in persistent_term
- Grid worker uses batched ML prediction (10K chunks) when model loaded,
falls back to algorithm scorer when not
- ML score replaces composite, algorithm factor scores preserved for detail view
- Fix process explosion: single EXLA call per chunk instead of per-grid-point
QSO Features:
- Callsign search (ILIKE on station1/station2) with trigram indexes
- Reciprocal QSO grouping (same pair, same band, same hour)
- Wider layout (max-w-7xl) for data table pages
- QSO Training Data link on map page
Infrastructure:
- Re-enable hourly propagation grid worker in dev
- Track ML model weights in git for Docker builds
- Add btree indexes on qsos (timestamp, band, distance_km)
- Remove nav icons from layout header
- point_detail response includes forecast array (score per valid_time)
- SVG sparkline shows score trend across all forecast hours
- Trend indicator: Improving/Declining/Steady based on first vs last score
- Add covering index (band_mhz, lat, lon, valid_time) INCLUDE (score) for
point_forecast queries
Define 0.125-degree CONUS grid (25-50N, 125-66W) for propagation
scoring and create propagation_scores table with composite unique
index on lat/lon/valid_time/band_mhz for upsert support.
Add idempotent migration to ensure precip_1h_in and wx_codes columns
exist, then reset weather_queued flag and clear stale observations
so the cron re-fetches with precipitation data included.
- Add precip_1h_in and wx_codes fields to ASOS surface observations
- Add IEMRE reanalysis schema for radar-derived hourly precipitation
- Add IemreFetchWorker with exponential backoff and idempotency
- Integrate IEMRE enqueue into cron weather backfill pipeline
- All existing QSOs marked iemre_queued=false for automatic backfill
Poll UBNT AirFiber radios (AF11X + AF60-LR) every 5 minutes via
net-snmp CLI, storing signal metrics in commercial_samples. Fetches
ASOS weather alongside each cycle for propagation correlation.
Includes 7 seeded link definitions, Oban cron worker, and net-snmp
in the Docker image.
Maidenhead grid module converts grid squares to lat/lon coordinates.
Submission form validates grids, bands, modes, and email, computes
positions and distance, then triggers the weather/HRRR/terrain
processing pipeline via Oban.
Fetch elevation data along the path between two stations via the
Open-Meteo Elevation API (with Open-Topo-Data fallback), compute
Fresnel zone clearance, earth bulge, and knife-edge diffraction loss,
and store the results per QSO.
- terrain_profiles table with migration and TerrainProfile schema
- ElevationClient with batched API calls and fallback
- TerrainAnalysis with Fresnel/diffraction physics (ITU-R P.526-15)
- TerrainProfileWorker on Oban :terrain queue
- QsoWeatherEnqueueWorker enqueues terrain jobs automatically
- QSO show page displays verdict badge and collapsible elevation table
- Reorder show page: terrain, soundings, solar, HRRR, surface obs
- Fix Dockerfile wgrib2 build (add cmake dependency)
HRRR provides hourly 3km-resolution atmospheric profiles, filling the
temporal gaps (12-hourly soundings) and spatial gaps (only 9 sounding
stations) in our current weather data.
- Add hrrr_profiles table and hrrr_queued flag on QSOs
- HrrrClient fetches GRIB2 data via HTTP Range requests + wgrib2
- HrrrFetchWorker derives refractivity/ducting params via SoundingParams
- QsoWeatherEnqueueWorker now also enqueues HRRR jobs
- QSO show page displays HRRR section with collapsible profile
- Dockerfile builds wgrib2 from source for production
Oban cron worker runs every 4 hours, finds QSOs without weather data,
discovers nearby ASOS/sounding stations, and enqueues WeatherFetchWorker
jobs. Migrations run automatically on app start in production.
Instead of fetching inline with Task.async_stream (which hammered IEM
with concurrent requests), the import script now just checks what data
is missing and enqueues WeatherFetchWorker jobs. Oban handles all HTTP
with concurrency 3 and automatic backoff on failures.
IEM was returning 503s under 10 concurrent workers. Three fixes:
- Req transient retry with exponential backoff on IEM requests
- WeatherFetchWorker Oban job retries failed ASOS/RAOB fetches 2-3h later
with random jitter to avoid thundering herd
- Import script concurrency reduced 10→5, weather queue capped at 3
Store surface observations (ASOS) and upper-air soundings (RAOB) alongside
QSOs for atmospheric propagation correlation. Three new tables: weather_stations,
surface_observations, and soundings with JSONB profiles and pre-computed derived
parameters (refractivity, gradients, duct detection, stability indices).
Includes IEM API client for historical data import and import script seeded
with 95 ASOS + 9 sounding stations from PropCast coverage area.
