Commit graph

9 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
10cbbf47b3
Train ML model on real QSO-HRRR data instead of algorithm scores
Features: HRRR conditions averaged at both QSO endpoints + solar time
Target: distance_km normalized per-band (distance / p99_range, capped at 1.0)
This trains on actual propagation outcomes from 57K+ QSOs, not the
hand-tuned algorithm output.
2026-04-01 09:13:05 -05:00
69b5caf876
Normalize ML features to prevent NaN gradient explosion
Raw features had vastly different scales (pressure ~1013, sin/cos ~[-1,1])
causing gradient explosion. Normalize all atmospheric features to ~[0,1]
using known physical bounds. Add Polaris dep for optimizer.
2026-04-01 09:08:33 -05:00
5c9b43d619
Update analysis with solar time, refine algo.md time-of-day section
Solar time (longitude/15) replaces fixed CDT/CST offset for time-of-day
scoring. Correlation analysis shows dramatic improvement at higher
frequencies: 24 GHz rho jumps from 0.056 (UTC) to 0.188 (solar), and
75 GHz corrects from spurious -0.39 to physically correct +0.24.
2026-04-01 09:02:57 -05:00
c12f8cf5ed
Use local solar time for time-of-day scoring, add PWAT factor and pressure refinements
Score time-of-day per grid point using longitude/15 solar offset instead of
hardcoded CST/CDT. Add PWAT as 10th scoring factor. Refine pressure thresholds.
Update ML model and training pipeline to use local solar time.
2026-04-01 08:58:21 -05:00
4bf9d0b4b0
Add mix propagation.analyze task for QSO-HRRR correlation analysis 2026-04-01 08:34:04 -05:00
e82e631135
HRRR forecast hours (f00-f18) with timeline map UI
- HrrrClient.hrrr_url accepts forecast_hour param (wrfsfcfHH.grib2)
- PropagationGridWorker fetches all 19 forecast hours per run
- Propagation.scores_at/3 queries scores at specific valid_time
- Propagation.available_valid_times/1 returns all forecast times for timeline
- Pruning keeps scores with valid_time >= now - 2h (forecast-aware)
- MapLive: select_time event, timeline data pushed to JS
- JS: forecast timeline bar at bottom of map with clickable hour buttons
- PubSub broadcast sends list of valid_times instead of single time
2026-03-31 16:44:47 -05:00
9c504acb67
Disable Oban queues in mix propagation_grid to prevent backfill noise 2026-03-30 17:36:32 -05:00
1e205cb471
Add propagation context, grid worker, and fix merge issues
- Replace stub propagation.ex with real implementation (score_grid_point,
  upsert_scores, latest_scores, latest_valid_time)
- Add PropagationGridWorker (hourly Oban cron) for CONUS grid scoring
- Add mix propagation_grid task for manual triggering
- Fix duplicate extract_grid/2 from parallel merges
- Fix extract_grid to skip outside-grid points instead of erroring
- Add propagation queue to Oban config
2026-03-30 17:18:05 -05:00
ded9c054ac
Multi-point path enrichment for HRRR, IEMRE, and weather data
Enqueue worker now gathers atmospheric data at pos1, midpoint, and pos2
along each QSO path instead of only pos1. Existing has_* guards prevent
duplicate fetches at each grid point.

- Add Radio.qso_path_points/1 for path point extraction
- Update hrrr_job_for_qso, iemre_job_for_qso, jobs_for_qso to iterate path points
- Refactor Weather into find_nearest_hrrr/3 and find_nearest_iemre/3
- Add hrrr_profiles_for_path/1 and iemre_for_path/1 query functions
- Add mix reset_enrichment task to trigger re-processing
2026-03-30 16:09:01 -05:00