Commit graph

77 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
57578dff4d Add native HRRR duct detection to hourly propagation scoring
The PropagationGridWorker now fetches native hybrid-sigma levels
(TMP, SPFH, HGT, PRES × 50 levels) alongside the standard surface
and pressure products. Native data provides 10-50m vertical spacing
vs 250m from pressure levels, detecting thin surface ducts invisible
to the standard product.

Key design: cell-by-cell reducer in Wgrib2.extract_grid_from_file_mapped
processes each of the 95k CONUS cells through a duct analysis function
inline, keeping only scalar metrics per cell. Peak memory ~86 MB
instead of ~1.8 GB for the full grid map.

Per-cell output: native_min_gradient, best_duct_freq_ghz,
max_duct_thickness_m, duct_count. The scorer prefers the native
gradient over the pressure-level gradient when available.

Native fetch is optional — if it fails, scoring continues with
pressure-level data only.
2026-04-11 13:30:48 -05:00
33fae7b7c9 Reduce memory pressure: Stream large collections, GC between phases
- Stream profile storage and score upsert instead of materializing
  full 20k+ item lists (propagation_grid_worker, propagation.ex)
- GC between forecast hours and store/compute phases to reclaim
  ~400 MB of grid data between steps
- Single-pass field extraction in scorer.ex path_integrated_conditions
  instead of 6 separate Enum traversals
- Eliminate intermediate merged map in fetch_grid by combining
  merge + profile build into one pipe
- Fix UUID bug: bingenerate → generate in native grid worker
  (same issue previously fixed in nexrad_worker)
2026-04-10 16:45:50 -05:00
f2efdd4ece Stream HRRR native downloads to disk to prevent OOM
Instead of holding ~530MB GRIB binary in BEAM memory, download
ranges directly to a temp file and run wgrib2 on it. Peak memory
drops from ~530MB to just HTTP chunk buffers.
2026-04-10 15:44:36 -05:00
4487fc22e9 Fix NexradWorker UUID type: use generate() not bingenerate() for insert_all 2026-04-10 14:13:38 -05:00
0edb1bd95a Fix NexradWorker crash when minute key is missing from args
Jobs enqueued via backfill only have year/month/day/hour — default
minute to 0 instead of requiring it in the pattern match.
2026-04-10 14:07:55 -05:00
e7a7ae073d Phase 9.3, 9.4, and Phase 3 NEXRAD pipeline
Task 9.3 - Weight recalibration via gradient descent:
- Recalibrator module fits logistic regression weights using Nx
- Trains on QSO positives vs random baseline negatives
- Cross-validates by month, normalizes weights to sum to 1.0
- Mix task: mix recalibrate_scorer --sample 5000 --epochs 2000

Task 9.4 - Side-by-side scorer comparison:
- ScorerDiff.compare/3 re-scores grid with old vs new weights
- Reports mean diff, regressions, improvements, per-band breakdown
- Mix task: mix scorer_diff --new-weights '{...}'

Phase 3 - NEXRAD ingestion pipeline:
- NexradClient fetches IEM n0q composite PNGs, extracts per-point
  box statistics (mean/max dBZ, texture variance)
- NexradObservation schema with unique (lat, lon, observed_at)
- NexradWorker on :nexrad queue for background processing
- nexrad_texture backtest feature in Features module
- mix nexrad_backfill --limit 200

All tasks added to AdminTaskWorker and Release for production use.
1116 tests, 0 failures.
2026-04-10 12:48:36 -05:00
01909dbe66 Run admin tasks as Oban jobs instead of blocking eval
Release.backtest_all, climatology, native_derive now enqueue an
AdminTaskWorker job on the new :admin queue and return immediately.
Progress visible in Oban Web at /admin/oban.
2026-04-10 12:26:01 -05:00
f15b2aaa69 Fix native-level GRIB2 decoding and add wgrib2 extraction path
The Elixir GRIB2 decoder didn't map level type 105 (hybrid) or
variable IDs for SPFH and TKE, so native-level messages decoded as
"unknown:105:N" keys that build_native_profile couldn't find. Add
the three missing mappings to Section.identify_level/identify_var.

Also add HrrrNativeClient.extract_native_profiles/2 which uses
wgrib2's -lola on a tight bounding-box subgrid for speed (the pure
Elixir decoder takes ~70s per point on a 395 MB file; wgrib2 handles
40 points in seconds). The worker now routes through this path.
2026-04-10 07:54:08 -05:00
900685aa06 Phase 1 tasks 1.1-1.5: HRRR native hybrid-sigma ingestion
- Spike docs at docs/research/hrrr_native_levels.md confirming files
  are on AWS S3 for 5+ years, 50 hybrid levels, and include TKE and
  SPFH needed for Phase 2 turbulence features. Architectural finding:
  per-point on-demand fetching is impractical (~530 MB/file), so
  the ingestion worker batches per (date, hour) instead.
- hrrr_native_profiles schema: arrays per level plus cached surface
  scalars and placeholder columns for Phase 2/4 derived fields.
  Strictly additive — the existing hrrr_profiles table is untouched.
- HrrrNativeClient: pure URL/message-list helpers, build_native_profile/1
  that turns a parsed wgrib2 map into the schema shape (TDD'd).
- Exposed HrrrClient.download_grib_ranges/2 so the native client
  reuses the existing parallel byte-range download + disk cache.
- HrrrNativeGridWorker: Oban worker keyed on {year, month, day, hour},
  unique at :infinity, pulls distinct (lat, lon) points from contacts
  in the ±30 min window, downloads the native grib2, extracts per
  point, bulk-upserts.
- mix hrrr_native_backfill --limit N enqueues the top-N hours by
  contact count.

Phase 1 gate still pending Task 1.6 (sanity-check backtest after
live data lands).
2026-04-09 16:23:51 -05:00
485676887a Move Era5MonthBatchWorker to its own queue
The slow CDS submit/poll/download cycle of the month-batch worker was
sharing the era5 queue with the cheap Era5FetchWorker router, and its
2 concurrent slots were permanently pinned by long-running batch jobs
while hundreds of router jobs starved. Give the batch worker its own
era5_batch queue (also 2 concurrent per pod) so the router has
dedicated capacity.
2026-04-09 14:12:31 -05:00
8637253fda Batch ERA5 fetches by month and 2° tile
Per-point ERA5 fetches were tragically slow because every point-hour
triggered its own asynchronous CDS job (submit → poll → assemble →
download). For backfill this meant thousands of independent jobs
queued against Copernicus. The new path groups requests by calendar
month and a 2° × 2° lat/lon tile so one CDS cycle populates ~60k
profiles at once, and Oban uniqueness on (year, month, tile_lat,
tile_lon) collapses every duplicate enqueue.

- Era5BatchClient builds the monthly CDS requests, extracts every
  (lat, lon, hour) from the GRIB2 blob with wgrib2, derives
  refractivity params, and bulk-inserts in 2k-row chunks with
  on_conflict: :nothing. fetch_month_into_db/1 short-circuits when
  the month-tile already has any cached profile.
- Era5MonthBatchWorker runs the batch on the :era5 queue with a
  generous backoff (10m → 1d) and the uniqueness key above.
- Era5FetchWorker is now a thin router: cache hit → :ok, cache miss
  → enqueue the month-batch for the point's tile-month and return.
  No more per-point CDS calls.
- Wgrib2 grows extract_grid_messages/3 which preserves per-message
  datetimes by parsing `d=YYYYMMDDHH[MMSS]` from the inventory, so a
  single GRIB2 file carrying a whole month decodes correctly.
- The era5_backfill mix task enqueues month-tile batches directly.
2026-04-09 13:01:49 -05:00
664f1353db Decouple propagation_scores pruning from the compute worker
Pruning used to only run at the end of a successful PropagationGridWorker
pass, so a stretch of failed compute jobs (k8s OOM kills, SIGTERM)
stopped prune from running and let the table accumulate ~5h of stale
rows. A dedicated PropagationPruneWorker now runs every 15 minutes on
its own Oban cron, and PropagationGridWorker also calls prune_old_scores
at the start of each run as a second safety net. Bumped the delete
timeout from 2m to 5m so the first catch-up pass has enough headroom.
2026-04-09 12:30:10 -05:00
6476bc8045 Dedupe ERA5 fetch jobs by (lat, lon, valid_time)
The Era5FetchWorker now declares an Oban unique constraint on
{lat, lon, valid_time} for any job in available/scheduled/executing/
retryable, so two backfill runs targeting the same contact grid point
can no longer spawn parallel CDS requests for the same hour.

Because Oban OSS insert_all doesn't honor unique, ERA5 jobs are now
routed through Oban.insert/1 from ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker and the
era5_backfill mix task. Other worker types still use insert_all.
2026-04-08 15:52:53 -05:00
e79e65db43 Add ERA5 to backfill dashboard and enrichment pipeline
- ERA5 checkbox on /backfill page alongside HRRR/weather/terrain/IEMRE
- BackfillEnqueueWorker handles era5 type (targets hrrr_status=unavailable)
- ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker.build_era5_jobs/1 creates ERA5 fetch jobs
  for path points without existing ERA5 profiles
- Progress bar shows ERA5 candidate count (HRRR-unavailable contacts)
- Status panel shows ERA5 candidates and fetched profile count
2026-04-07 12:24:18 -05:00
dea407c8ca Add ERA5 reanalysis and RTMA data sources
ERA5 (Copernicus CDS API):
- Era5Profile schema matching HRRR profile structure for interop
- Era5Client with async job submission, polling, GRIB2 download
- Era5FetchWorker (Oban queue: era5, max_attempts: 5)
- Unified lookup: Weather.best_profile_for_contact/1 tries HRRR
  first, falls back to ERA5 for pre-2014 contacts

RTMA (NOAA S3, 2.5km/15-min):
- RtmaObservation schema for surface-only fields
- RtmaClient with byte-range GRIB2 requests (same pattern as HRRR)
- RtmaFetchWorker (Oban queue: rtma, max_attempts: 10)
- Weather.find_nearest_rtma/3 for surface condition lookup

Both queues added to production Oban config (2 workers each).
2026-04-07 12:04:16 -05:00
e03b9fbc0e Add periodic enrichment backfill cron and terrain reconciliation
Runs BackfillEnqueueWorker every 30 minutes to pick up contacts with
pending/queued/failed enrichment status and enqueue missing jobs.
Before enqueueing, reconciles terrain contacts stuck in "queued" by
checking the terrain_profiles FK directly.
2026-04-07 07:36:57 -05:00
79130a39e8 Mark terrain status complete when profile already exists
TerrainProfileWorker early-exited with :ok when a profile existed
but never updated the contact status, leaving contacts stuck at queued.
2026-04-06 16:54:29 -05:00
646467cf4d Store stub records on empty weather fetches to prevent infinite backfill retries
When ASOS/RAOB/IEMRE APIs return empty data, store a stub record so
dedup checks (has_surface_observations?, has_sounding?, has_iemre_observation?)
see coverage and don't recreate the same jobs on future backfill runs.
2026-04-06 16:10:39 -05:00
4ba7269e57 Prioritize pending contacts over queued in backfill
Queued contacts just need reconciliation (check if data exists),
while pending contacts need actual HRRR fetches. Process pending
first so real work happens before reconciliation.
2026-04-06 11:48:55 -05:00
e99e585b66 Add type filter to backfill enqueue
Backfill dashboard now has checkboxes to select which enrichment types
to process (HRRR, Weather, Terrain, IEMRE). Prevents weather jobs from
flooding the queue when only HRRR needs work.
2026-04-06 11:42:26 -05:00
eeb92bcc19 Fix HRRR enrichment status stuck at queued/pending
enqueue_for_contact unconditionally marked contacts as :queued even
when no HRRR jobs were needed (profiles already exist). Workers never
updated contact status to :complete after storing profiles. Contacts
got stuck and were never re-processed.

- Mark :complete when no jobs generated (data already exists)
- Include :queued in backfill enrichable states for reconciliation
2026-04-06 10:24:56 -05:00
8d008ba934
Add logging to WeatherFetchWorker for ASOS and RAOB fetches 2026-04-05 10:26:10 -05:00
16883591b4
Database performance fixes and async backfill enqueue
- Fix score_pressure crash on nil pressure_mb (coastal HRRR points)
- Set 10-min timeout on grid score upsert transaction (was :infinity)
- Single DELETE for prune_old_scores instead of N queries in a loop
- Remove dead load_hrrr_refractivity that loaded 95k rows into nil map
- Pass selected_time to point_detail to skip latest_valid_time sub-query
- Batch station existence checks (1 query per path point, not per station)
- Batch solar index upserts via insert_all in chunks of 500
- Batch backfill_distances via single UPDATE FROM VALUES statement
- Add is_grid_point boolean + partial index to hrrr_profiles (replaces
  non-sargable modular arithmetic filter on every weather map query)
- Add partial index on contacts(qso_timestamp) WHERE pos1 IS NOT NULL
- Move backfill enqueue to Oban worker so UI returns immediately
2026-04-04 19:19:18 -05:00
e107706915
Show dead tuple counts on backfill dashboard, fix table visibility during vacuum
Removed n_live_tup > 0 filter that hid tables when pg_stats reports 0 rows
during VACUUM. Added dead tuple column with warning highlight to monitor
vacuum progress. Also includes Styler reformatting and unused dep cleanup.
2026-04-04 10:45:06 -05:00
10390f3d07
Broadcast weather:updated PubSub after HRRR profiles stored 2026-04-03 15:10:16 -05:00
411951147a
Use ON CONFLICT DO NOTHING for HRRR backfill to prevent table bloat 2026-04-03 13:29:15 -05:00
ebeaaa06e4
Use batch insert for HRRR profiles, tune Postgres for 16GB host 2026-04-03 09:12:24 -05:00
68fdd1d2b6
Fix unique constraint blocking re-enqueues of completed jobs
- Only deduplicate against active jobs (available/scheduled/executing/
  retryable), not completed ones. Completed jobs no longer block new
  inserts for the same args.
- Period reduced from 3600s to 300s
- Fixes contacts stuck in :queued with no actual Oban jobs
2026-04-02 16:34:39 -05:00
0e089e8493
Auto-fetch solar index data on contact page when missing
- SolarIndexWorker accepts date arg for specific date fetch
- Contact show page enqueues solar fetch when data missing
- PubSub broadcast on solar data arrival, live-updates page
- Spinner shown while fetching
2026-04-02 16:07:38 -05:00
da75977a55
Rename qsos table to contacts, qso_id to contact_id
- Migration renames table, column, all indexes, and FK constraints
- Contact schema now references "contacts" table
- TerrainProfile foreign key renamed from qso_id to contact_id
- All code and tests updated to use contact_id
2026-04-02 15:52:19 -05:00
d275e9e7c4
fix enrichment 2026-04-02 15:30:41 -05:00
d95098daa9
Remove queue pausing from PropagationGridWorker 2026-04-02 15:30:06 -05:00
1fa8681c54
Keep hrrr queue running during propagation grid worker
Don't pause the hrrr queue while PropagationGridWorker runs,
so on-demand HRRR fetches from contact detail pages can proceed.
2026-04-02 15:02:23 -05:00
1da1cbed43
Fix nil access bugs found in security/bug audit
- TerrainProfileWorker: guard pos1/pos2 nil before accessing lat/lon,
  mark unavailable if missing instead of crashing
- Propagation analysis: guard pos1 nil in compute_factors
- contact_path_points: return [] instead of [{nil, nil}] on missing coords
- JS elevation hook: null check canvas before getContext
2026-04-02 12:38:49 -05:00
79af4e4959
Ensure positions computed from grids before any enrichment
- Radio.ensure_positions!/1 computes pos1/pos2/distance from grids
- Called in contact show page mount and enqueue_for_contact
- Migration backfills positions for existing contacts missing them
- Migration corrects enrichment statuses based on actual data presence
- Backfill dashboard includes contacts with grids but no positions
2026-04-02 12:28:48 -05:00
55a51f69ab
Replace boolean enrichment flags with enum status fields
- New fields: hrrr_status, weather_status, terrain_status, iemre_status
  with values: pending, queued, processing, complete, failed, unavailable
- EnrichmentStatus module defines valid state transitions
- Migration backfills: queued=true → complete, false → pending
- Workers set status on transitions (queued on enqueue, complete on finish)
- Show page reads status from contact struct, not computed dynamically
- Backfill dashboard queries status fields for accurate progress counts
- Remove cron-scheduled ContactWeatherEnqueueWorker (enrichment only on
  submission, page view, or manual backfill)
- Partial indexes on status != 'complete' for fast unprocessed lookups
2026-04-02 12:07:51 -05:00
9e975aa64b
Add unique constraint to all enrichment workers to prevent duplicates
WeatherFetchWorker, HrrrFetchWorker, and TerrainProfileWorker now have
unique: [period: 3600] — Oban deduplicates identical jobs within 1 hour.
Repeated page loads won't queue redundant fetches.
2026-04-02 11:10:22 -05:00
17b66d6903
Live-update soundings and surface observations on contact page
- WeatherFetchWorker broadcasts on ASOS and RAOB completion
- Contact show page subscribes and reloads weather data on receipt
- Loading spinners for soundings and surface observations when queued
- Propagation analysis recomputed with new sounding duct data
2026-04-02 08:22:43 -05:00
d207863b15
Live-update contact detail page when enrichment completes
- HRRR and terrain workers broadcast via PubSub on completion
- Contact show page subscribes and recomputes elevation profile,
  propagation analysis, and HRRR data on receipt
- Page updates in-place without reload when background jobs finish
2026-04-02 08:17:43 -05:00
fd00de7bc6
Never download SRTM tiles during page load, only in Oban workers
- Srtm.lookup no longer auto-downloads by default, requires download: true
- TerrainProfileWorker passes download: true for background tile fetch
- Contact detail page enqueues TerrainProfileWorker if profile missing
- Page load gracefully handles missing tiles via API fallback or nil
2026-04-02 08:07:26 -05:00
254e64dedc
Rename qsos to contacts throughout codebase, keep DB table name
Rename all modules, functions, variables, routes, and UI text from
qso/qsos to contact/contacts. Database table stays as "qsos" to avoid
migration. Add /qsos -> /contacts redirects for old URLs.
2026-04-01 11:25:04 -05:00
bc529af392
Update algo.md Finding 10: corrected mode advantage, no SSB on rainscatter 2026-04-01 11:10:11 -05:00
8f4f491a5e
Revert to algorithm scorer as primary, add propagation reach polygon
The ML model undervalues conditions outside Aug/Sep training data
(e.g. April with excellent factors scored 37/100). Algorithm's
physics-based factors handle unseen seasons correctly.

- Algorithm is primary scorer, ML infrastructure kept for iteration
- Remove unused ML grid worker code path
- Add client-side propagation reach: BFS flood-fill from clicked point
  through contiguous cells with score >= 50, drawn as convex hull polygon
2026-04-01 10:21:54 -05:00
02cb4fd67b
Integrate ML model into grid worker, QSO search, and UI improvements
ML Integration:
- Load trained model at app startup, cache compiled predict fn in persistent_term
- Grid worker uses batched ML prediction (10K chunks) when model loaded,
  falls back to algorithm scorer when not
- ML score replaces composite, algorithm factor scores preserved for detail view
- Fix process explosion: single EXLA call per chunk instead of per-grid-point

QSO Features:
- Callsign search (ILIKE on station1/station2) with trigram indexes
- Reciprocal QSO grouping (same pair, same band, same hour)
- Wider layout (max-w-7xl) for data table pages
- QSO Training Data link on map page

Infrastructure:
- Re-enable hourly propagation grid worker in dev
- Track ML model weights in git for Docker builds
- Add btree indexes on qsos (timestamp, band, distance_km)
- Remove nav icons from layout header
2026-04-01 10:14:22 -05:00
c12f8cf5ed
Use local solar time for time-of-day scoring, add PWAT factor and pressure refinements
Score time-of-day per grid point using longitude/15 solar offset instead of
hardcoded CST/CDT. Add PWAT as 10th scoring factor. Refine pressure thresholds.
Update ML model and training pipeline to use local solar time.
2026-04-01 08:58:21 -05:00
b7fc195e82
Ensure stale scores get pruned even when HRRR fetch fails 2026-04-01 08:36:14 -05:00
fe5228b306
Prevent duplicate PropagationGridWorker jobs via Oban unique constraint
Worker now uses unique: [period: 3600, states: [:available, :scheduled,
:executing, :retryable]] so Oban atomically prevents duplicates.
FreshnessMonitor simplified — no longer does manual oban_jobs query.
2026-03-31 17:16:40 -05:00
e82e631135
HRRR forecast hours (f00-f18) with timeline map UI
- HrrrClient.hrrr_url accepts forecast_hour param (wrfsfcfHH.grib2)
- PropagationGridWorker fetches all 19 forecast hours per run
- Propagation.scores_at/3 queries scores at specific valid_time
- Propagation.available_valid_times/1 returns all forecast times for timeline
- Pruning keeps scores with valid_time >= now - 2h (forecast-aware)
- MapLive: select_time event, timeline data pushed to JS
- JS: forecast timeline bar at bottom of map with clickable hour buttons
- PubSub broadcast sends list of valid_times instead of single time
2026-03-31 16:44:47 -05:00
77db483a27
Add timing instrumentation to PropagationGridWorker
Logs duration for each phase: HRRR fetch, profile storage, score
computation, and upsert, plus total elapsed time.
2026-03-31 16:18:10 -05:00
49cbe6789c
Implement ITU-R P.526-16 terrain diffraction model
- Replace piecewise knife-edge loss with P.526-16 Eq. 31 single formula
- Fix diffraction parameter ν to use standard formula instead of ad-hoc approximation
- Implement Deygout 3-edge method for multiple obstacle diffraction
- Add dynamic k-factor from HRRR refractivity gradient (falls back to 4/3)
- Terrain worker now looks up nearest HRRR profile for atmospheric correction
- Update algo.md with P.526-16 methods and k-factor table
- Fix pre-existing map_live_test antenna height default (33 ft, not 8)
2026-03-31 16:04:23 -05:00